Alstom SA (ALO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €12.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 4.58%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: FR
• Employees: 78,684
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 462,029,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,029,301
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,141,369
• PEG Ratio: -0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €22.90
• Price Target Upside: -12.50% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €18.96B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: €28.00 ▲(6.99% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/15/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/15/25

Alstom SA's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and a positive financial performance turnaround. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, which tempers the overall score. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors did not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Equity Base

Alstom's equity rising to €10.46bn strengthens its capital base, providing a durable cushion for large, multi-year rail contracts and infrastructure bids. A stronger equity position supports counterparty confidence, funds R&D or capex, and reduces insolvency risk in a capital-intensive sector.

Lower Leverage

A debt-to-equity of 0.34 indicates materially reduced leverage, improving financial flexibility. Lower indebtedness reduces interest burden and refinancing pressure, increasing capacity to pursue large tenders and to absorb project delays or cyclical downturns common in the rail industry.

Recovered Cash Generation

Operating cash flow recovery to €972m and positive free cash flow of €490m signal renewed internal funding capacity. Sustainable cash generation enables reinvestment in rolling stock, signaling upgrades, servicing long-term contracts, and incremental deleveraging without sole reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

High Absolute Liabilities

Despite better ratios, high absolute liabilities limit strategic flexibility and increase exposure to refinancing and counterparty risk. In a business with long contract backlogs and milestone payments, large liabilities can amplify losses if projects face cost overruns or demand weakens.

Thin Profitability

Net margin of just 0.81% leaves little room for error on large contracts. Thin margins heighten sensitivity to raw-material, labor or supply-chain cost shocks and make it harder to sustainably fund R&D, warranty provisions or competitive bidding without higher volumes or margin recovery.

Volatile Cash Flow History

Past volatility in operating cash flow, despite 2025 recovery, creates execution risk for long-term projects. Variable cash conversion complicates multi-year budgeting for maintenance, capex and service obligations, increasing reliance on external liquidity during troughs.

Alstom SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alstom SA offers solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions for people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter trains, regional and intercity trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, digital passenger, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track solutions, catenary free and ground feeding solutions, electrification solutions, and electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company provides maintenance, modernization, parts and repair, and support services. Further, it offers various components, including bogies, motors and generators, switchgears, auxiliary converters, traction transformers, brake friction, components propulsion, train control and information systems, and dispen dampers. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Alstom generates revenue primarily through the sale of rolling stock, which includes locomotives, high-speed trains, suburban trains, and trams. Additionally, the company earns income from signaling systems and railway infrastructure projects. A significant portion of its revenue comes from long-term contracts and service agreements, which include maintenance, upgrades, and parts supply for existing rail systems. Alstom's revenue model is bolstered by strategic partnerships with various governments and private sector clients worldwide, allowing it to secure large-scale projects and contribute to public transportation initiatives. Moreover, the company benefits from ongoing investments in research and development, leading to innovative solutions that meet the evolving demands of the transportation sector.

Alstom SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alstom SA demonstrates a positive turnaround in financial performance for 2025, with improvements across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. Revenue growth and profitability have improved, with a positive net profit margin and better operational efficiency. The balance sheet shows a stable equity position and reduced leverage, enhancing financial stability. Robust cash flow recovery supports liquidity and operational flexibility. Despite these gains, maintaining consistent performance and addressing high liabilities remain challenges for sustained growth.

Income Statement

The income statement shows positive revenue growth with a 4.94% increase in 2025 compared to 2024. Gross profit margin improved to 12.46% from 12.56% in 2024, indicating stable profitability. Net profit margin turned positive at 0.81%, a significant improvement from the previous year's negative margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved to 3.57% and 6.80% respectively, showcasing better operational efficiency. However, the company's margins are still relatively low, indicating room for further improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a solid equity base with a steady increase in stockholders' equity to €10.46 billion in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.34, showing a conservative leverage position. The equity ratio improved to 30.25%, reflecting a stronger financial position. Return on equity turned positive at 1.42%, indicating better return generation for shareholders. However, the company's total liabilities remain high, posing potential risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a substantial recovery in operating cash flow to €972 million in 2025, a notable improvement from a negative flow in 2024. Free cash flow turned positive at €490 million, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 3.29, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, historical volatility in cash flow remains a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.77B	18.49B	17.62B	15.47B	8.79B	8.20B
Gross Profit	2.36B	2.30B	2.21B	1.73B	1.39B	1.46B
EBITDA	1.42B	1.26B	762.00M	732.00M	655.00M	819.00M
Net Income	316.00M	149.00M	-309.00M	-576.00M	247.00M	467.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.45B	34.59B	33.25B	30.52B	28.57B	13.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.72B	2.27B	976.00M	810.00M	1.25B	2.17B
Total Debt	4.64B	3.52B	4.66B	3.69B	2.93B	1.64B
Total Liabilities	24.68B	24.01B	24.48B	21.49B	19.45B	9.68B
Stockholders Equity	9.67B	10.46B	8.67B	8.91B	9.04B	3.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-111.00M	490.00M	-567.00M	-1.00B	-720.00M	202.00M
Operating Cash Flow	382.00M	972.00M	-82.00M	-577.00M	-455.00M	476.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-521.00M	123.00M	-431.00M	-443.00M	-1.94B	-368.00M
Financing Cash Flow	80.00M	244.00M	696.00M	558.00M	1.46B	-1.36B

Alstom SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 26.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:ALO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.68, below the 50-day MA of 27.17, and above the 200-day MA of 22.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FR:ALO.

Alstom SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAF	77 Outperform	€136.33B	17.32	35.36%	0.97%	14.19%	161.87%
DG	73 Outperform	€74.37B	13.71	16.66%	3.96%	3.21%	4.24%
FGR	69 Neutral	€13.60B	11.12	14.39%	3.87%	7.71%	-2.82%
ALO	67 Neutral	€12.12B	11.61	3.25%	―	4.58%	―
AIR	66 Neutral	€138.10B	30.00	23.44%	1.53%	7.05%	54.98%
EN	64 Neutral	€19.56B	14.13	8.45%	4.51%	0.88%	-2.06%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%