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Airbus Group SE (FR:AIR)
:AIR
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Airbus Group SE
(AIR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
€202.00
▲(14.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance (revenue/earnings recovery and improving free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook with maintained guidance and a very large backlog. Offsetting this are weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively rich valuation (P/E ~30 with a modest yield), plus execution risks highlighted on the call (cash flow pressure, supply-chain constraints, and tariffs).
Positive Factors
Large backlog and production ramp
A very large backlog provides durable revenue visibility and multi-year production scheduling, supporting predictable deliveries and aftermarket revenue. A planned A320 family ramp to ~75/month boosts unit economics and recurring services capture once supply constraints ease.
Improving cash generation and positive FCF
Consistent, improving operating cash and materially positive free cash flow strengthen financial flexibility for capex, debt servicing, dividends and strategic investments. Durable cash conversion versus earnings reduces refinancing risk and supports long-term shareholder returns and program funding.
Diversified portfolio & strategic space partnerships
Broad exposure across commercial, helicopters, defense/space and services reduces cyclical sensitivity to airline demand. Strategic MOU to consolidate European space capabilities strengthens competitive positioning, scale and long-term services revenue in higher-margin space markets.
Negative Factors
Engine supply-chain constraints
Ongoing engine supplier disruptions directly cap aircraft deliveries and delay revenue recognition, undermining production ramp economics. These supplier bottlenecks can persist for months, forcing rate adjustments, increasing inventory and unit costs, and compressing margin sustainability.
Tariff and geopolitical risks
Trade protectionism and tariffs create structural cost pressure and uncertainty in supply chains and pricing. Persistent geopolitical trade barriers raise the risk of higher production costs, forced re-shoring or supplier diversification, and recurring profit impacts until policy risk abates.
Working-capital intensity and inventory buildup
Elevated inventory and working-capital needs make cash flow more volatile relative to sales. When deliveries or supplier timing shift, liquidity and FCF can fluctuate materially, pressuring short-term funding needs and reducing the margin of safety for sustaining capital returns and program cash management.
Airbus Group SE (AIR) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€138.10B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)1.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.0
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth7.05%
EPS Growth54.98%
CountryFR
Employees157,894
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.92
Shares Outstanding792,283,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,554,555
30 Day Avg. Volume1,269,697
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.26
Price to Book (P/B)6.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio35.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€220.64Price Target Upside24.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)7.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)€81.49B
Airbus Group SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAirbus SE engages in the designing, manufacturing, and delivering aerospace products, services, and solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Airbus, Airbus Helicopters, and Airbus Defence and Space. The Airbus segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells commercial jet aircraft of approximately 100 seats; and regional turboprop aircraft and aircraft components, as well as provides aircraft conversion and related services. The Airbus Helicopters segment engages in the development, manufacturing, marketing, and sale of civil and military helicopters; and provision of helicopter related services. The Airbus Defence and Space segment designs, develops, delivers, and supports military aircraft, such as combat, mission, transport, tanker aircraft, and their associated services; and offers unmanned aerial systems. This segment also offers civil and defense space systems for telecommunications, earth observations, navigation, science, and orbital systems; missile systems; and space launcher systems, as well as services around data processing from platforms, secure communication, and cyber security. The company was formerly known as Airbus Group SE and changed its name to Airbus SE in April 2017. Airbus SE was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Leiden, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyAirbus generates revenue primarily through the sale of commercial and military aircraft, as well as related services. The company’s key revenue streams include the delivery of new commercial aircraft, which are sold to airlines and leasing companies, and military aircraft contracts with governments around the world. Additionally, Airbus earns revenue from the sale of helicopters and from its space division, which includes satellite manufacturing and launch services. The company also benefits from after-sales services and support contracts, which provide ongoing revenue through maintenance, spare parts, and upgrades. Significant partnerships with defense ministries and commercial airlines further enhance its revenue potential, while a focus on research and development helps maintain its competitive edge in the aerospace market.
Airbus Group SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in revenues and EBIT adjusted, driven by strong performance across divisions and strategic initiatives in space. However, challenges remain with free cash flow, engine supply chain tensions, and tariff impacts.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Airbus reported a 7% year-on-year increase in nine-month revenues, reaching EUR 47.4 billion, driven by stronger services volumes and higher deliveries.
EBIT Adjusted Growth
Nine-month EBIT adjusted increased to EUR 4.1 billion from EUR 2.8 billion in the same period last year. This reflects higher commercial aircraft deliveries and solid performance in defense and space and helicopters.
Commercial Aircraft Orders
Airbus booked 610 gross orders for the nine months of 2025, including 371 for the A320 family, bringing the total backlog to 8,665 aircraft.
Defense and Space Achievements
Revenues in Defense and Space increased 17% year-on-year to EUR 8.9 billion, supported by higher volumes and improved profitability.
Helicopter Segment Performance
The helicopter division delivered 218 helicopters in the nine months and saw revenues increase by 16% to EUR 5.7 billion, reflecting growth in services and higher deliveries.
Strategic Partnerships in Space
Airbus signed an MOU with Leonardo and Thales to form a new European space player by 2027, aiming to enhance competitiveness in space systems and services.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Challenges
Free cash flow before customer financing was negative EUR 0.9 billion, impacted by inventory buildup and planned CapEx increases.
Tariff Impacts
Airbus expects tariffs to impact their results by EUR 100 million to EUR 200 million for the full year, with the majority recorded in Q4.
Engine Supply Chain Tensions
Persistent tensions in engine supply chains, particularly narrow-body engines, pose a challenge to meeting delivery targets.
Delayed A220 Ramp-up
The ramp-up for the A220 has been adjusted, targeting rate 12 in 2026 instead of a higher previous target, impacting breakeven timelines.
Company Guidance
In the Airbus Nine-Months 2025 Earnings Release Conference Call, the company maintained its 2025 guidance, targeting around 820 commercial aircraft deliveries, an EBIT adjusted of approximately EUR 7 billion, and a free cash flow before customer financing of around EUR 4.5 billion. Deliveries so far in the year have reached 507 aircraft, with a backlog of 8,665 units. Airbus reported a nine-month EBIT adjusted of EUR 4.1 billion, reflecting successful commercial aircraft deliveries and strong performances in their Defense and Space and Helicopters divisions. Despite challenges in the supply chain, particularly with engines, the company remains focused on ramping up production, with targets including 75 A320 family aircraft per month by 2027. The financial outlook considers factors such as tariffs, which could impact the full year by EUR 100-200 million, and the integration of Spirit AeroSystems work packages. Airbus also highlighted strategic moves in their space division, including the signing of an MOU with Leonardo and Thales to consolidate European space activities.Airbus Group SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong post-2020 recovery with revenue up to €73.4B (2025) and solid profitability (~7.1% net margin). Cash generation is improving with 2025 operating cash flow of €8.4B and free cash flow of €4.4B, though cash flow remains working-capital intensive. Balance sheet leverage improved materially, but the 2025 debt step-up is a key watch item and margins have drifted down versus 2021–2022.Income Statement
Revenue has rebounded strongly since 2020, reaching €73.4B in 2025 (annual), with continued growth in 2023–2025. Profitability is solid with positive operating profit and net income (2025 net margin ~7.1%), but margins have drifted down versus 2021–2022 levels (gross and operating margins are lower), suggesting cost/price pressure or mix headwinds. Overall, the income statement shows a healthy post-downturn recovery with some margin normalization risk.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved materially from 2020–2021 (debt-to-equity fell from ~2.42x in 2020 to ~0.62x in 2025) alongside a much stronger equity base (€26.1B in 2025). Returns on equity remain high (~20%+ in 2023–2025), indicating good profitability relative to capital. The main watch item is that total debt increased in 2025 (to ~€16.3B from ~€11.3B in 2024), which partially offsets the otherwise improving balance-sheet trajectory.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose from €6.4B (2023) to €8.4B (2025), and free cash flow increased to €4.4B in 2025 with strong growth versus 2024. Free cash flow is consistently positive in 2021–2025 and covers a meaningful portion of earnings (free cash flow is ~53% of net income in 2025). A key weakness is that operating cash flow is relatively small versus revenue (around low-teens as a share of sales), pointing to working-capital intensity and potential volatility.81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 73.42B | 69.23B | 65.45B | 58.76B | 52.15B |
| Gross Profit | 10.97B | 10.68B | 10.04B | 10.17B | 9.63B |
| EBITDA | 8.37B | 9.18B | 7.76B | 8.20B | 7.69B |
| Net Income | 5.22B | 4.23B | 3.79B | 4.25B | 4.21B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 134.94B | 129.21B | 118.87B | 115.94B | 107.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.22B | 19.18B | 18.83B | 18.55B | 16.20B |
| Total Debt | 16.30B | 11.28B | 11.32B | 10.98B | 13.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 108.75B | 109.52B | 101.14B | 102.96B | 97.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.10B | 19.61B | 17.70B | 12.95B | 9.47B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.42B | 3.93B | 3.35B | 3.92B | 2.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.38B | 7.60B | 6.41B | 6.39B | 4.72B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.99B | -6.72B | -4.13B | -3.07B | -2.66B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.55B | -2.70B | -1.42B | -2.26B | -2.32B |
Airbus Group SE Technical Analysis
Negative
177.20
Price Trends
197.76
Negative
200.49
Negative
190.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.19
Positive
34.79
Neutral
13.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:AIR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 177.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.06, below the 50-day MA of 197.76, and below the 200-day MA of 190.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:AIR.
Airbus Group SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | €136.33B | 17.32 | 35.36% | 0.97% | 14.19% | 161.87% | |
73 Outperform | €51.30B | 19.38 | 14.51% | 1.66% | 11.16% | -50.57% | |
71 Outperform | €25.85B | 17.55 | 12.93% | 1.74% | 29.91% | -2.24% | |
66 Neutral | €138.10B | 30.00 | 23.44% | 1.53% | 7.05% | 54.98% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FR:AIR
Airbus Group SE
177.20
7.94
4.69%
FR:AM
Dassault Aviation
347.00
54.91
18.80%
FR:SAF
SAFRAN SA
327.00
71.19
27.83%
FR:HO
Thales
250.70
7.34
3.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.