SAFRAN SA (SAF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €127.87B
• Dividend Yield: 0.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 492.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 14.19%
• EPS Growth: 161.87%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 96,390
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 3.80
• Shares Outstanding: 418,344,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 424,476
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 492,368
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €365.91
• Price Target Upside: 19.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €35.54B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: €346.00 ▲(12.81% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash generation and improving balance-sheet leverage) and bullish technicals (price above major moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation is acceptable but not notably cheap, and the low dividend yield limits support from income.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Rising operating and free cash flow through 2023–2025, with FCF growth accelerating in 2025, indicates durable internal funding for capex, R&D, MRO capacity and payouts. High FCF relative to net income (~0.78–0.83 historically) supports reinvestment and balance-sheet repair over the medium term.

Durable aftermarket & JV scale

Safran’s mix of OE sales plus a large installed base and long-term service agreements (notably via the CFM JV) creates recurring, utilization-linked revenue and high switching costs. This structural aftermarket economics sustains cash flow and margins independent of single-year OEM cycles.

Improving leverage

A falling debt-to-equity ratio and expanding equity through 2025 strengthen resilience to shocks and lower refinancing risk. Improved leverage increases strategic flexibility for R&D, JV investments and cyclic downturns, supporting longer-term stability of operations and capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Profitability volatility

Material swings in margins and episodic net losses reduce earnings visibility and complicate multi-year planning. Irregular profitability can constrain sustained return on capital, make forecasting for long-term contracts harder, and raise the bar for consistent shareholder returns despite strong cash flows.

Cyclical OEM exposure

Significant exposure to aircraft production rates and global flight activity means OE revenue and aftermarket volumes move with industry cycles. Slower build rates or demand shocks can materially delay receipts and shop visits, pressuring revenue timing and capital utilization over multi-quarter horizons.

Concentration in CFM programs

Heavy reliance on CFM engine programs concentrates propulsion economics in a single JV and a limited set of engine platforms. Program-specific issues, competitive shifts or JV disputes could disproportionately affect Safran’s revenue and aftermarket capture, elevating idiosyncratic business risk.

SAFRAN SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors. The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones. This segment also offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, as well as sells spare parts. The Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems segment provides landing gears and brakes; and engine systems and equipment, such as thrust reversers and nacelles. This segment also offers avionics, such as flight controls and onboard information systems; security systems, including evacuation slides, emergency arresting systems, and oxygen masks; onboard computers and fuel systems; electrical power management systems and associated engineering services; and optronic equipment and sights, navigation equipment and sensors, infantry, and drones, as well as sells spare parts. Its products and services are used in civil and military aircraft, and helicopters. The Aircraft Interiors segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets aircraft seats for passengers and crew; cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts, and trolleys and cargo equipment; and water distribution equipment, lavatories, air systems, and in-flight entertainment and connectivity systems. Safran SA was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Safran primarily makes money through a mix of original equipment (OE) sales to aircraft and helicopter manufacturers and defense customers, and recurring aftermarket revenue tied to the long operating life of its products. 1) Aircraft propulsion (engines) revenue - OE engine and module sales: Safran earns revenue when engines (or major engine modules and components) are delivered to airframe manufacturers and airlines/leasing companies, notably through CFM International (the 50/50 joint venture with GE Aerospace) which supplies widely used narrowbody engines (e.g., CFM56 and LEAP families). OE sales can be more cyclical and may be priced competitively. - Aftermarket services and spares: A large share of propulsion economics typically comes after delivery, as airlines pay for spare parts, shop visits, overhauls, and on-wing support over decades of operation. Safran benefits from the size of the installed base and flight hours. - Long-term service agreements: Safran participates in service contracts that bundle maintenance and parts over time, often with pricing linked to utilization (e.g., flight hours or cycles). These arrangements create more predictable recurring revenue as aircraft operate. 2) Aircraft equipment revenue (systems and components) - OE sales of systems and components: Safran sells landing gear, wheels and brakes, nacelles, electrical power systems, avionics and related equipment to aircraft manufacturers and integrators. Revenue is recognized as equipment is delivered for new aircraft production. - Aftermarket parts and MRO: Similar to engines, Safran earns ongoing revenue from replacement parts (notably high-wear items like carbon brakes), repairs, and overhaul services. Airlines and MRO providers purchase spares and services throughout the aircraft lifecycle. 3) Defense and aerospace systems revenue - Program sales to government/prime contractors: Safran sells navigation, guidance, optronics, and other defense/aerospace systems into military platforms and space-related applications, generating revenue through equipment deliveries and program milestones. - Support and sustainment: Defense customers often require long-term support, upgrades, and maintenance, providing recurring service revenue over the life of deployed systems. 4) Partnerships and structural factors supporting earnings - CFM International joint venture: Safran’s propulsion revenue and profitability are materially influenced by CFM programs and the competitive position of LEAP/CFM56 on major single-aisle aircraft families. - Installed base and switching costs: Once engines and certified aircraft systems are selected and installed, operators typically rely on OEM-approved parts and service capabilities, supporting durable aftermarket demand. - Production rates and air traffic: New aircraft build rates drive OE revenue, while global flight activity (utilization) drives the volume and timing of shop visits, spare-part consumption, and service contract economics. null

SAFRAN SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth into 2025, strengthening leverage (improving debt-to-equity), and consistently strong operating/free cash flow support a solid fundamental profile. The main drag is meaningful profit and margin volatility across years (including loss years), which reduces earnings visibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently from 2023–2025 (2025: +6.5% YoY; 2024 was essentially flat), showing solid top-line momentum. Profitability looks strong in 2025 with healthy operating and EBITDA margins and a high net margin, but results have been volatile: net losses in 2022 and 2024 contrast with strong profits in 2023 and 2025, and the gross margin swings materially across years, which raises questions about earnings consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for the sector, with debt-to-equity improving over time (from ~0.67 in 2022 to ~0.40 in 2025), indicating balance sheet strengthening. Equity has expanded meaningfully into 2025, supporting resilience. The main concern is performance volatility reflected in equity returns (negative in 2022 and 2024), suggesting that while leverage is manageable, profitability swings can still pressure balance-sheet quality in weaker years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow have risen steadily from 2023 to 2025, with free cash flow growth accelerating in 2025 (~+9.8% YoY). Free cash flow has remained robust relative to net income (around ~0.78–0.83 in most years), supporting earnings quality. A watch item is that cash flow does not fully track the sharp earnings swings year-to-year (e.g., loss years still show strong cash), which could reflect timing effects and warrants monitoring.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.19B	27.72B	23.65B	19.52B	15.29B
Gross Profit	4.47B	13.46B	11.21B	9.17B	7.56B
EBITDA	5.62B	5.32B	4.41B	3.68B	2.57B
Net Income	7.18B	-667.00M	3.44B	-2.46B	43.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	61.81B	55.01B	50.47B	46.83B	41.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.79B	6.76B	6.68B	6.69B	5.25B
Total Debt	5.97B	5.06B	6.58B	6.95B	7.13B
Total Liabilities	46.35B	44.29B	38.38B	35.96B	28.45B
Stockholders Equity	14.84B	10.18B	11.58B	10.41B	12.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.48B	3.69B	3.44B	2.95B	2.00B
Operating Cash Flow	5.72B	4.73B	4.27B	3.54B	2.44B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.38B	-1.85B	-1.70B	-1.29B	-738.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.01B	-3.07B	-2.58B	-815.00M	-268.00M

SAFRAN SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 306.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:SAF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 306.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.29, below the 50-day MA of 319.38, and above the 200-day MA of 296.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:SAF.

SAFRAN SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAF	77 Outperform	€127.87B	17.32	51.15%	0.97%	14.19%	161.87%
AM	70 Outperform	€26.80B	21.87	12.93%	1.74%	29.91%	-2.24%
HO	70 Outperform	€51.34B	28.20	22.17%	1.66%	11.16%	-50.57%
AIR	66 Neutral	€133.80B	30.00	21.22%	1.53%	7.05%	54.98%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FII	60 Neutral	€2.27B	17.35	13.55%	0.74%	9.17%	12.78%
FGA	49 Neutral	€414.34M	-9.57	-12.90%	―	7.63%	28.06%