Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $256.18M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.37
• Revenue Growth: -12.89%
• EPS Growth: 45.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 58,355,465
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 555,824
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,024,719
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 35.84
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 59.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $835.50M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(13.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, and a return to cash burn), partially offset by improving leverage. Technicals are comparatively strong with price above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. The earnings call adds moderate support due to tangible cost and margin progress, but guidance indicates continued near-term sales pressure, while valuation remains unattractive given loss-making results and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion

Sustained gross-margin expansion driven by fuller‑price selling, supply‑chain gains and targeted price increases creates a durable margin buffer. High gross margins improve the firm's ability to absorb SG&A and support a path to sustainable operating profitability over multiple years.

Cost Discipline & Operating Turnaround

Meaningful, repeatable cost reductions and rightsizing demonstrate operational leverage: lower ongoing SG&A reduces the sales level needed to reach sustained profitability and shows management can structurally reshape the cost base rather than relying solely on temporary cuts.

Improved Liquidity & Inventory Control

Stronger liquidity and tighter inventory reduce short‑term financing risk and markdown pressure. Lower inventory and revolver availability provide working‑capital flexibility to fund product investment or buffer revenue volatility while supporting margin sustainability.

Negative Factors

Multi-year Revenue Decline

A prolonged top‑line contraction materially shrinks scale and reduces fixed‑cost absorption, making margin targets harder to hit. Continued revenue erosion threatens market position, licensing leverage and the ability to invest in product and channel rebuilding over the medium term.

Volatile and Negative Cash Generation

Reversion to negative operating and free cash flow raises financing risk and limits self‑funding for marketing, product launches and inventory. If cash generation remains volatile, the company will increasingly depend on revolver capacity or external capital, constraining strategic optionality.

Concentration Risk: Wholesale & Contract Headwinds

Heavy reliance on wholesale recovery and remediation of legacy licensing shortfalls concentrates execution risk. Weakness or adverse contract dynamics in key markets could stall revenue recovery, undermining margin gains and prolonging the path to stable cash generation.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group primarily makes money by selling fashion accessories—especially watches—through two main routes: (1) wholesale sales to third-party retailers and distributors, and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales through its own e-commerce sites and company-operated stores/outlets. A meaningful portion of revenue is also generated from products made and sold under license for other brands, where Fossil Group designs, sources/manufactures, and sells licensed-branded watches and/or accessories and earns revenue from product sales (and, where applicable, licensing-related arrangements; specific royalty structures are not available here and are therefore null). Revenue is influenced by product mix (watches vs. jewelry/leather goods), channel mix (wholesale vs. DTC, with DTC typically capturing the full retail selling price while wholesale sells at retailer margin discounts), geographic demand trends, promotional activity/discounting, and inventory management. Key earnings drivers often include distribution relationships with major retailers, performance of licensed brand portfolios, and the scale/efficiency of its global sourcing, merchandising, and marketing operations.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials remain pressured: multi-year revenue declines and persistently negative net profitability outweigh improved gross margin. Balance sheet leverage has improved versus prior years, but the latest period returned to negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, keeping risk elevated.

Income Statement

Revenue has been in a clear multi-year downtrend (from ~$1.87B in 2021 to ~$1.00B in the latest annual period), with the most recent year showing another mid-single-digit decline. Profitability is the bigger issue: net margins have been consistently negative since 2022, and operating results remain loss-making, despite some improvement versus the very weak 2023–2024 period. A positive offset is that gross margin has strengthened over time and is relatively high in the latest period, but it has not been enough to cover operating costs and return the business to sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully: total debt has come down from prior years and debt relative to equity has moved from very elevated levels in 2024 to a more moderate level in the latest annual period. However, the balance sheet profile is mixed given ongoing losses and negative returns on equity, which can pressure equity over time if profitability does not recover. Assets are also materially lower versus earlier years, underscoring a smaller operating base and potentially less financial flexibility than in prior cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. After producing positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024 (and also in 2020–2021), the latest annual period swung back to negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow. While free cash flow improved versus the prior year (i.e., the cash burn narrowed), the return to negative cash flow raises execution risk and increases reliance on balance-sheet flexibility if the trend persists.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B
Gross Profit	563.10M	597.15M	685.12M	830.68M	966.37M
EBITDA	36.00M	-83.07M	-72.95M	20.44M	107.74M
Net Income	-78.30M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-44.16M	25.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	689.30M	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.80M	123.60M	117.77M	198.73M	250.84M
Total Debt	282.20M	315.83M	388.67M	416.36M	375.15M
Total Liabilities	602.50M	626.84M	726.29M	835.12M	903.36M
Stockholders Equity	102.83M	148.70M	254.23M	405.93M	463.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-60.46M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M
Operating Cash Flow	-57.90M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M
Investing Cash Flow	22.08M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.01M	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.50, above the 50-day MA of 4.03, and above the 200-day MA of 2.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOV	70 Outperform	$361.48M	10.69	4.21%	6.79%	0.63%	-7.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ELA	56 Neutral	$301.44M	23.81	18.01%	―	23.75%	59.66%
FOSL	54 Neutral	$256.18M	-2.78	-48.62%	―	-12.89%	45.32%
BRLT	44 Neutral	$130.15M	-4.98	-15.32%	14.29%	1.32%	-175.81%
LANV	42 Neutral	$197.64M	-1.49	404.88%	―	-23.54%	-49.41%
BGI	41 Neutral	$13.91M	-2.90	63.94%	―	4.49%	-87.94%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor

Fossil Group held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on December 19, 2025, where shareholders elected eight directors to the board for terms expiring at the 2026 annual meeting, approved on an advisory basis the company’s executive compensation program, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 3, 2026. The strong shareholder support across all three proposals, including the board slate, pay practices and external auditor, signals continued investor confidence in the company’s governance structure and oversight of its financial reporting and executive pay policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.