Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $54.32M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 500.28K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -18.93%
• EPS Growth: 35.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -1.94
• Shares Outstanding: 53,258,663
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 325,658
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 500,276
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.06
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

Fossil Group's overall stock score of 46 reflects significant challenges in financial performance, valuation, and technical momentum, tempered by strategic initiatives aimed at turnaround and stabilization. While improvements in operational income and strategic planning are positives, the ongoing sales decline and high leverage pose substantial risks.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group makes money primarily through the design, production, and sale of fashion accessories, with a significant focus on watches, which constitute the largest portion of its revenue. The company generates income from both its owned brands like Fossil and Skagen, and its licensed brands, which include partnerships with major fashion designers and corporations. Fossil Group's revenue streams are diversified across wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and e-commerce channels. The wholesale segment involves selling products to department stores, specialty retailers, and distributors, while direct-to-consumer sales occur through Fossil's branded retail stores and online platforms. Licensing agreements also contribute to its revenue, allowing the company to leverage well-known fashion brands to expand its market reach. Fossil Group's earnings are further influenced by its strategic investments in technology and innovation, particularly in the wearables segment, adapting to consumer trends and demands.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group faces significant challenges in revenue growth, profitability, and financial stability. Despite some improvements in cash flow generation, the company's high leverage and declining equity position pose risks. Strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and reduce debt will be crucial for future financial health.

Income Statement

Fossil Group's revenue has shown a declining trend with a significant drop from $2.2 billion in 2019 to $1.14 billion in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, with a net loss of $102.67 million in 2024. Gross profit margin also decreased over the years, reaching approximately 52.2% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a weakening equity position, with stockholders' equity decreasing to $148.7 million in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.12, reflecting a leveraged financial structure. The equity ratio has decreased over the years, standing at 71.1% in 2024, indicating potential risks if asset values decline. The company needs to address its high leverage to strengthen financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024 at $46.68 million, a recovery from previous negative figures. However, free cash flow remains low at $39.93 million, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to ongoing net losses. The company has shown improvement in generating cash from operations, but sustainability remains a concern.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B	1.61B
	Gross Profit
597.15M	679.58M	830.70M	966.40M	770.40M
	EBIT
-103.95M	-143.02M	-17.73M	92.70M	-96.30M
	EBITDA
-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	197.99M	12.31M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-102.67M	-157.09M	-43.50M	25.43M	-95.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	250.80M	316.00M
	Total Assets
763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B	1.48B
	Total Debt
315.83M	388.67M	366.60M	316.50M	458.10M
	Net Debt
192.23M	271.48M	167.90M	65.70M	142.10M
	Total Liabilities
626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	903.30M	1.04B
	Stockholders Equity
148.70M	254.23M	403.00M	465.40M	440.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M	90.54M
	Operating Cash Flow
46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M	101.24M
	Investing Cash Flow
4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M	-10.62M
	Financing Cash Flow
-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M	10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.25, below the 50-day MA of 1.46, and below the 200-day MA of 1.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RL	79 Outperform	$12.21B	18.01	27.57%	1.67%	5.23%	24.63%
LVMUY	74 Outperform	$290.25B	21.10	19.77%	1.72%	-1.65%	-17.16%
PVH	72 Outperform	$3.56B	6.42	11.67%	0.22%	-6.13%	-2.63%
MOV	65 Neutral	$237.78M	14.43	4.74%	9.23%	-4.18%	-58.51%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.18B	10.04	-1.58%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.97%
SIG	57 Neutral	$2.35B	5.56	2.62%	2.11%	-6.52%	-104.24%
FOSL	46 Neutral	$54.32M	―	-50.98%	―	-18.93%	35.38%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Appoints New CFO Amid Strategic Restructuring

On March 7, 2025, Fossil Group’s Board of Directors appointed Randy Greben as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 17, 2025. This appointment follows the interim tenure of Andy Skobe and is part of the company’s strategic leadership restructuring. Mr. Greben brings extensive experience from his previous roles at Casper Sleep Inc., Blue Apron, ANN Inc., and Quidsi. Concurrently, Fossil Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighting a 19% decline in net sales and a strategic exit from the smartwatch category. The company outlined a turnaround plan aiming for significant SG&A savings and long-term financial targets, including achieving over $800 million in net sales by 2027. These initiatives are part of a broader effort to strengthen Fossil Group’s market position and drive long-term growth.

Fossil Group Restructures Leadership, Eliminates COO Role

Fossil Group announced the elimination of the Chief Operating Officer position, currently held by Jeffrey N. Boyer, as part of its ongoing Transform and Grow strategy. This move is part of a restructuring effort, with Boyer’s responsibilities being redistributed to other officers, and reflects a strategic shift in the company’s management structure.