Amicus (FOLD) AI Stock Analysis

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Amicus

(NASDAQ:FOLD)

Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:

$7.00

▲( 11.82% Upside)

Amicus Therapeutics shows promising revenue growth and strategic developments. However, challenges with profitability, high leverage, and current bearish technical indicators are concerns. The positive outlook from the earnings call and strategic corporate events provide optimism for future growth, balancing the current financial and technical challenges.

Positive Factors

Market Environment

FOLD shares are relatively attractive in the current environment which favors more advanced commercial biopharma companies.

Strategic Licensing

Amicus licensed exclusive US rights to commercialize DMX-200 for the treatment of FSGS from Dimerix Limited for $30M upfront and up to $560M in success-based milestone payments and tiered royalties.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Amicus' first quarter print came in below expectations and the stock is under pressure after lowering Pombiliti/Opfolda guidance.

Revenue Challenges

Revenue for PomOp and Galafold missed expectations due to higher UK VPAG rebates.

Amicus (FOLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.03B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.17M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.75

Revenue Growth28.25%

EPS Growth80.86%

CountryUS

Employees499

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength43

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.07

Shares Outstanding307,930,970

10 Day Avg. Volume5,981,614

30 Day Avg. Volume5,171,416

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.25

Price to Book (P/B)9.51

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.15K

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.26

Enterprise Value/Ebitda62.80

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$16.17

Price Target Upside158.31% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Amicus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmicus Therapeutics (FOLD) is a biotechnology company that focuses on discovering, developing, and delivering advanced therapies for rare and orphan diseases. The company primarily operates in the biopharmaceutical sector and is known for its innovative approach to developing enzyme replacement therapies and other medicines targeting lysosomal storage disorders. Amicus aims to provide life-changing treatments for patients suffering from these severe genetic conditions.

How the Company Makes MoneyAmicus Therapeutics generates revenue through the sale of its approved therapies, primarily Galafold (migalastat), which is used to treat Fabry disease, a rare genetic disorder. The company earns money by commercializing its products in various global markets, leveraging strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its reach. Additionally, Amicus invests in research and development to bring new therapies to market, which can lead to future revenue streams. Licensing agreements and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies also contribute to its earnings, as they help to fund research and provide access to new technologies.

Amicus Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Amicus demonstrates strong revenue growth and high gross profit margins. However, persistent net losses and high debt levels are concerning. The company shows some improvement in cash flow metrics, but ongoing challenges in profitability and financial flexibility remain.

Income Statement

Positive

The company shows a positive revenue growth trend with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $543.1 million, up from $528.3 million in the previous annual period. Gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 91%. However, the net profit margin is negative due to consistent net losses, indicating profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved but remain low, suggesting limited operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a financial risk. The equity ratio stands at 24.5%, showing a moderate proportion of equity financing. The return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The free cash flow has turned positive in the TTM period, showing improvement from the previous annual period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some level of cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains low, pointing to challenges in converting earnings into cash flow.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
543.14M	528.29M	399.36M	329.23M	305.51M	260.89M
	Gross Profit
494.22M	475.35M	362.03M	290.63M	271.05M	229.84M
	EBIT
38.60M	24.88M	-73.49M	-204.43M	-199.92M	-243.85M
	EBITDA
53.63M	29.39M	-92.08M	-199.58M	-202.87M	-242.98M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-29.37M	-56.11M	-151.58M	-236.57M	-250.46M	-276.85M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
239.60M	249.95M	286.20M	293.60M	482.50M	483.27M
	Total Assets
721.79M	785.03M	777.88M	724.17M	905.14M	886.52M
	Total Debt
444.49M	443.64M	445.06M	452.12M	440.13M	441.73M
	Net Debt
234.73M	229.89M	198.06M	303.31M	194.93M	278.49M
	Total Liabilities
591.10M	590.99M	617.71M	601.12M	597.77M	600.14M
	Stockholders Equity
130.69M	194.04M	160.17M	123.05M	307.37M	286.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.61M	-37.44M	-76.53M	-170.34M	-206.38M	-236.52M
	Operating Cash Flow
3.56M	-33.89M	-69.09M	-166.57M	-202.49M	-233.29M
	Investing Cash Flow
-40.96M	-560.00K	98.06M	92.32M	78.76M	-13.58M
	Financing Cash Flow
6.73M	5.12M	61.68M	-7.46M	212.07M	262.86M

Amicus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.26

Price Trends

50DMA

7.29

Negative

100DMA

8.34

Negative

200DMA

9.56

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.28

Negative

RSI

41.73

Neutral

STOCH

69.84

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.51, below the 50-day MA of 7.29, and below the 200-day MA of 9.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOLD.

Amicus Risk Analysis

Amicus disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amicus reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

Significant changes or developments in U.S. laws or policies, including changes in U.S. trade policies and tariffs and the reaction of other countries thereto, may have a material adverse effect on our business and financial statements. Q4, 2024

Our business may be impacted by actions of the new U.S. administration, including Executive Orders, policies, new legislation, and judicial decisions Q4, 2024

Amicus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FOLD	62 Neutral	$2.03B	―	-18.12%	―	28.25%	80.86%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.06	-43.57%	2.81%	16.81%	-0.12%
APLS	50 Neutral	$2.23B	―	-103.82%	―	48.04%	48.16%
SRRK	50 Neutral	$2.99B	―	-106.71%	―	―	-22.34%
CRNX	46 Neutral	$2.94B	―	-30.84%	―	―	-1.20%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$2.55B	―	-74.17%	―	―	-43.10%
RARE	43 Neutral	$3.53B	―	-386.33%	―	33.46%	26.72%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FOLD

Amicus

6.26

-3.21

-33.90%

RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

35.51

-4.39

-11.00%

APLS

Apellis Pharmaceuticals

17.78

-21.90

-55.19%

SRRK

Scholar Rock Holding

30.46

19.67

182.30%

CRNX

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals

30.11

-18.52

-38.08%

IMVT

Immunovant

14.56

-13.83

-48.71%

Amicus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -18.49%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a strong positive outlook with significant growth in key areas such as revenue and strategic collaborations, alongside challenges including higher than expected rebates and revised revenue guidance. However, the highlights, particularly the strong growth and strategic partnerships, outweigh the lowlights, indicating positive sentiment.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Double-Digit Revenue Growth

Amicus delivered its eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth in its core business in Pompe and Fabry, with expectations for this trend to continue for years.

Strategic Collaboration with Dimerix

Amicus entered into a strategic collaboration with Dimerix, acquiring U.S. commercialization rights to DMX-200, a first-in-class compound in late Phase III development for a rare fatal kidney disease, with blockbuster market potential.

Onshoring Manufacturing to Strengthen Supply Chain

Amicus announced onshoring a portion of its drug product manufacturing to enhance its diversification strategy.

Galafold Revenue Growth and Market Share

Galafold revenue reached $104.2 million, up 6% at constant exchange rates, with a 14% increase in new patient starts and a 69% global market share of treated Fabry patients with amenable mutations.

Pombiliti and Opfolda Revenue Growth

Pombiliti and Opfolda revenue reached $21 million, up 92% at constant exchange rates, driven by significant growth in the U.S., Germany, and Spain.

Positive Outlook for DMX-200

The Phase III ACTION study for DMX-200 is progressing well, with FDA alignment on proteinuria as the primary endpoint for approval.

Negative Updates

Unexpected Rebate Impact in the UK

The UK's VPAG rebate was higher than anticipated, impacting revenue projections for both Galafold and Pombiliti and Opfolda.

Revised Revenue Guidance for Pombiliti and Opfolda

The full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance for Pombiliti and Opfolda was revised downwards from 65%-85% to 50%-65% at constant exchange rates.

Delayed Patient Starts in New Markets

Expected patient starts in newly reimbursed countries were delayed from Q1 to Q2, impacting immediate revenue projections.

Challenges with Nonlinear Order Patterns

Nonlinear order patterns outside the U.S. and unexpected factors impacted quarterly revenues for Galafold and Pom-Op.

Company Guidance

During the Amicus Therapeutics First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance that highlights several key metrics. The company reported a total revenue growth of 13% year-over-year, reaching $125.2 million, with a constant exchange rate growth of 15%. The revenue from Galafold reached $104.2 million, showing a 6% increase at constant exchange rates, while Pombiliti and Opfolda revenues increased by 92% to $21 million. Despite a higher-than-expected VPAG rebate in the UK impacting revenues, Amicus remains confident in achieving its full-year 2025 growth guidance for Galafold and revised its revenue growth guidance for Pombiliti and Opfolda to 50% to 65%. The company projects to reach combined sales of $1 billion by the end of 2028 for its two key products. Amicus also anticipates achieving GAAP profitability in the second half of 2025. The strategic collaboration with Dimerix and the expansion of their global supply chain further contribute to the company's positive outlook.

Amicus Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Amicus Secures License for DMX-200 Development

Positive

May 1, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Amicus Therapeutics entered into a license agreement with Dimerix Bioscience, granting Amicus exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Dimerix’s drug candidate DMX-200 in the United States for Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and other indications. This agreement, effective May 1, 2025, includes a $30 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $560 million. Dimerix will continue funding the ongoing pivotal Phase 3 study for DMX-200, while Amicus will handle regulatory submissions and commercialization in the U.S. This collaboration aims to bring a transformative treatment to patients with FSGS, a rare kidney disease with limited treatment options, enhancing Amicus’s portfolio in the rare disease market.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.