Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) AI Stock Analysis

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Floor & Decor Holdings

(NYSE:FND)

Select Model

Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:

$66.00

▲(5.15% Upside)

Floor & Decor Holdings' overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company's solid revenue growth and strategic store expansion are significant positives. However, pressures on profitability, cash flow, and valuation concerns weigh on the score. The new CEO appointment is a positive development, but industry headwinds remain a key risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Store Expansion

Strategic store expansion boosts market presence and potential revenue streams, supporting long-term growth objectives.

Leadership Transition

New leadership can drive strategic growth and operational efficiency, ensuring continuity and supporting expansion goals.

Negative Factors

Comparable Store Sales Decline

Declining comparable store sales suggest challenges in maintaining customer engagement and market competitiveness.

Cash Flow Challenges

Weakened cash flow generation limits financial flexibility and could hinder investment in growth initiatives.

Gross Margin Pressure

Pressure on gross margins can impact profitability, reducing the ability to reinvest in business operations and growth.

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$6.76B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.43M

Price to Earnings (P/E)31.4

Beta (1Y)1.24

Revenue Growth6.04%

EPS Growth10.26%

CountryUS

Employees10,413

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryHome Improvement

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.53

Shares Outstanding107,756,130

10 Day Avg. Volume2,842,217

30 Day Avg. Volume2,432,342

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-3.11

Price to Book (P/B)4.99

Price to Sales (P/S)2.43

P/FCF Ratio69.23

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.17

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.13

Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.51

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$78.64

Price Target Upside25.28% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

EPS Forecast (FY)1.91

Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.69B

Floor & Decor Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer and commercial flooring distributor of hard surface flooring and related accessories. The company's stores offer tile, wood, laminate, vinyl, and natural stone flooring products, as well as decorative and installation accessories. It serves professional installers, commercial businesses, and do it yourself customers. As of May 5, 2022, the company operated 166 warehouse-format stores and five design studios in 34 states. It also sells products through its Website, FloorandDecor.com. The company was formerly known as FDO Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. in April 2017. Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes MoneyFloor & Decor generates revenue primarily through the sale of hard surface flooring materials and related accessories. The company's key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce sales, and installation services. In-store sales are bolstered by a large inventory that caters to both residential and commercial customers, while their online platform allows customers to browse and purchase products conveniently. Additionally, Floor & Decor offers installation services, which provide an additional revenue stream by leveraging partnerships with contractors and installers. The company's focus on providing value and a superior shopping experience, combined with a growing network of stores, contributes significantly to its earnings.

Floor & Decor Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Comparable Average Ticket

Comparable Average Ticket
Tracks the average transaction value in comparable stores, providing insights into customer spending habits and the effectiveness of upselling strategies.

Chart InsightsFloor & Decor's Comparable Average Ticket has been volatile, with a notable decline since 2023, reflecting challenges in consumer demand and economic pressures. However, the recent earnings call highlights a strategic pivot with improved gross margins and pro sales growth, suggesting resilience. Despite flat comparable store sales and tariff impacts, the company is expanding its store footprint and leveraging global sourcing to maintain profitability. This strategic focus, alongside a cautious outlook, indicates potential stabilization and growth opportunities in the near term.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Floor & Decor Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong earnings per share growth, successful store expansion, and product margin improvements, indicating operational strength. However, challenges such as declining comparable store sales, lower new store sales performance, and regional sales pressure reflect significant industry headwinds.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Double-Digit EPS Growth

Fiscal 2025 third quarter diluted earnings per share increased by 10.4% to $0.53, exceeding the high end of guidance.

Total Sales Growth

Total sales grew by 5.5% to $1.180 billion, despite a challenging market environment.

Store Expansion

Opened 5 new stores in Q3, including reentering the Charlotte market and establishing presence in Myrtle Beach, SC. Year-to-date, 12 new locations opened, ending the period with a 9% increase in store count from last year.

Highest Net Promoter Scores

Achieved highest Net Promoter Scores ever in September, reflecting exceptional service delivery.

Spartan Surfaces Growth

Spartan Surfaces delivered 13.3% year-over-year sales growth in the third quarter.

Product Margin Improvement

Fiscal 2025 third quarter product margin improved by 80 basis points year-over-year, despite external pressures.

Negative Updates

Comparable Store Sales Decline

Comparable store sales declined by 1.2% in Q3 and 2% in early Q4, reflecting ongoing pressure from high mortgage rates and weak housing market.

Lower New Store Sales Performance

New store classes of 2023, 2024, and 2025 have first-year sales below long-term target, averaging $11 million, indicating industry headwinds.

Gross Margin Pressure

Gross margin rate decreased by approximately 10 basis points due to increased distribution center costs.

Regional Sales Challenges

Existing home sales pressure in high-concentration markets like Texas and Florida impacting overall performance.

Company Guidance

During the Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. third quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported a fiscal 2025 third-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53, representing a 10.4% increase from the previous year's $0.48, exceeding the high end of their guidance range. Total sales increased by 5.5% to $1.180 billion, while comparable store sales declined by 1.2%, approaching the low end of their expectations. The gross margin rate slightly decreased by 10 basis points to 43.4%, primarily due to increased distribution center costs. Floor & Decor also opened five new stores in the third quarter, contributing to a 9% year-over-year increase in store count, ending the period with 262 stores. The company plans to open 20 new stores in fiscal 2025 and maintains this pace for fiscal 2026. They reported a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $138.8 million, a 4.4% increase from the previous year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin rate of 11.8%. Floor & Decor provided guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting total sales to range between $4.660 billion and $4.710 billion, with comparable store sales estimated to decline by 1% to 2%. The company anticipates a gross margin rate of approximately 43.6% to 43.7% and plans fiscal 2025 capital expenditures between $280 million and $300 million.

Floor & Decor Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Floor & Decor Holdings shows strong revenue growth and stable gross margins, reflecting effective cost management. However, cash flow generation is a concern with significant declines in free cash flow growth, and net profit margins have slightly decreased, indicating pressure on profitability.

Income Statement

Positive

Floor & Decor Holdings has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, albeit at a slowing rate, with a TTM revenue growth of 1.79%. The gross profit margin has remained stable around 43-44%, indicating strong pricing power and cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 4.59% in the TTM, reflecting some pressure on profitability. Overall, the company shows solid revenue growth and stable margins, but there is room for improvement in net profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.85 in the TTM, indicating a better balance between debt and equity financing. Return on equity is stable at around 9.6%, showing consistent returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at approximately 42.4%, suggesting a healthy capital structure. While the company has managed its leverage well, the return on equity could be enhanced further.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow has decreased in the TTM, with a significant drop in free cash flow growth (-72.06%). The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 0.43, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.24, highlighting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow. The company needs to focus on improving cash flow generation to support future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.66B	4.46B	4.41B	4.26B	3.43B	2.43B
Gross Profit	1.97B	1.93B	1.86B	1.73B	1.42B	1.03B
EBITDA	518.97M	488.65M	523.30M	551.78M	457.19M	306.22M
Net Income	216.80M	205.87M	245.98M	298.19M	283.23M	194.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.52B	5.05B	4.66B	4.35B	3.73B	2.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	204.48M	187.67M	34.38M	9.79M	139.44M	307.77M
Total Debt	1.99B	1.69B	1.63B	1.74B	1.42B	1.24B
Total Liabilities	3.16B	2.88B	2.73B	2.69B	2.41B	1.88B
Stockholders Equity	2.36B	2.17B	1.93B	1.66B	1.32B	997.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.85M	156.33M	255.98M	-344.15M	-106.33M	193.72M
Operating Cash Flow	359.15M	603.15M	803.59M	112.45M	301.34M	406.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-336.31M	-446.83M	-564.97M	-455.64M	-471.24M	-212.45M
Financing Cash Flow	863.00K	-3.04M	-214.03M	213.54M	1.57M	87.02M

Floor & Decor Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price62.77

Price Trends

50DMA

64.00

Negative

100DMA

72.35

Negative

200DMA

74.78

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.43

Negative

RSI

49.93

Neutral

STOCH

56.83

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 62.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.98, below the 50-day MA of 64.00, and below the 200-day MA of 74.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FND.

Floor & Decor Holdings Risk Analysis

Floor & Decor Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Floor & Decor Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Floor & Decor Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARHS	76 Outperform	$1.65B	22.53	20.38%	―	7.36%	-6.85%
HVT	73 Outperform	$386.66M	20.34	6.32%	5.44%	-1.05%	-24.24%
LOW	69 Neutral	$135.83B	20.07	―	1.94%	0.64%	0.58%
FND	63 Neutral	$6.76B	31.39	9.69%	―	6.04%	10.26%
HVT.A	62 Neutral	$386.66M	20.80	6.32%	5.36%	-1.05%	-24.24%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TTSH	43 Neutral	$165.45M	-96.86	-1.37%	―	-3.77%	-146.47%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FND

Floor & Decor Holdings

62.77

-38.30

-37.89%

HVT.A

Haverty Furn Cl A SC

24.26

3.38

16.19%

HVT

Haverty

23.73

2.79

13.32%

LOW

Lowe's

242.15

-2.38

-0.97%

TTSH

Tile Shop

3.70

-2.96

-44.44%

ARHS

Arhaus

11.73

2.32

24.65%

Floor & Decor Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Floor & Decor Announces New CEO Appointment

Positive

Oct 30, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Floor & Decor Holdings announced a leadership transition effective December 26, 2025, with Bradley S. Paulsen appointed as CEO and Thomas V. Taylor transitioning to Executive Chair of the Board. This strategic move aims to ensure continuity in leadership and support the company’s expansion goals, including reaching 500 warehouse stores. The transition is expected to leverage Taylor’s strategic vision and Paulsen’s expertise in home improvement and retail operations, positioning the company for future growth.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025