Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) AI Stock Analysis

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Floor & Decor Holdings

(NYSE:FND)

Rating:65Neutral

Price Target:

$81.00

▲(7.57%Upside)

Floor & Decor Holdings' stock score is influenced most significantly by its financial performance and earnings call insights. Strong revenue growth and operational efficiency are offset by challenges in profit margins and economic uncertainties. The high P/E ratio further suggests caution, while technical indicators paint a mixed picture of momentum.

Positive Factors

Earnings and Financial Performance

Management maintains little concern about hitting its full-year gross margin target, where efforts related to merchandising, sourcing, and pricing should more than offset the impact of tariffs and new DC build-out costs.

Growth Initiatives

Strategic initiatives, including design centers and outdoor department expansion, are expected to support FND's long-term growth.

Market Position and Strategy

Floor & Decor's competitive position could significantly improve as it exits China faster than peers, benefiting from direct sourcing and diversification.

Negative Factors

Sales and Earnings Guidance

Management lowered its full-year sales and earnings guide.

Store Growth and Profitability

The company has lowered its openings for 2025 and may reduce them further due to decelerating new store revenues, affecting profitability.

Tariffs and Import Costs

Despite solid Q1 results, the company remains affected by tariffs as approximately 70% of its products are imported and subject to potential price increases.

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$8.10B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.72M

Price to Earnings (P/E)39.9

Beta (1Y)1.35

Revenue Growth2.96%

EPS Growth-9.49%

CountryUS

Employees10,413

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength60

IndustryHome Improvement

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.45

Shares Outstanding107,605,990

10 Day Avg. Volume1,646,692

30 Day Avg. Volume1,721,935

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio6.20

Price to Book (P/B)4.52

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-21.79

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.52

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.84

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.90

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$85.20

Price Target Upside13.15% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering17

Floor & Decor Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer and commercial flooring distributor of hard surface flooring and related accessories. The company's stores offer tile, wood, laminate, vinyl, and natural stone flooring products, as well as decorative and installation accessories. It serves professional installers, commercial businesses, and do it yourself customers. As of May 5, 2022, the company operated 166 warehouse-format stores and five design studios in 34 states. It also sells products through its Website, FloorandDecor.com. The company was formerly known as FDO Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. in April 2017. Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes MoneyFloor & Decor Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of hard surface flooring products and related accessories. The company's warehouse-style stores serve as its primary sales channels, attracting a mix of professional contractors and individual consumers seeking quality flooring solutions. Additionally, Floor & Decor leverages its direct sourcing model, purchasing products directly from manufacturers around the world, which allows the company to offer competitive pricing and maintain healthy profit margins. The company also benefits from its private label offerings, which contribute to higher margins and brand differentiation. Floor & Decor's earnings are further supported by its investment in e-commerce, which complements its physical stores by providing customers with an integrated shopping experience. Key revenue streams include product sales, installation materials, and accessories, with significant contributions from both in-store and online sales.

Floor & Decor Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Comparable Average Ticket

Chart InsightsThe Comparable Average Ticket for Floor & Decor Holdings has shown a declining trend since 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining customer spending levels. Despite a recent uptick in Q1 2025, the earnings call highlights ongoing economic uncertainty and a decrease in comparable store sales by 1.8%. The company is focusing on cost management and strategic planning to navigate these challenges, with a cautious approach to store openings. The West Division's outperformance and a focus on Pro sales, which now account for 50% of total sales, offer some optimism.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Floor & Decor Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 4.22%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed view with significant achievements in sales growth, customer satisfaction, and sourcing diversification, but also highlighted challenges such as declining comparable store sales, economic uncertainty, and tariff impacts. Despite these challenges, the company remains proactive in managing costs and strategic planning.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Total Sales Increase

Fiscal 2025 Q1 total sales increased by 5.8% to $1.161 billion, compared to $1.97 billion in the same period last year.

Record Customer Satisfaction

Achieved record customer satisfaction scores, demonstrating effective execution of growth strategies.

Sourcing Diversification

Successfully diversified sourcing away from China, reducing dependency from 50% in 2018 to mid to low single digits expected by the end of fiscal 2025.

Gross Margin Improvement

First quarter fiscal 2025 gross profit rose by 8.1%, with a 100 basis point increase in gross margin rate to 43.8% due to lower supply chain costs.

Connected Customer Sales Growth

Connected customer sales increased by 2.1% from the same period last year, now accounting for approximately 18.3% of sales.

Pro Sales Growth

Sales and comparable store sales to Pros continued to grow, accounting for approximately 50% of total sales, surpassing the company's overall sales performance.

Negative Updates

Comparable Store Sales Decline

First quarter fiscal 2025 comparable store sales decreased by 1.8% from the same period last year.

Reduction in Store Openings

Plan to open 20 new warehouse-format stores in fiscal 2025, down from a prior expectation of 25, due to potential slowing economic growth.

Economic Uncertainty

Operating in an environment marked by high volatility and uncertainty, with potential impacts on consumer spending for the remainder of fiscal 2025.

Tariff Challenges

Managing increased complexity due to tariffs, with potential need for price increases to mitigate higher incremental tariffs.

Inventory and Sales Pressure

Inventory increased by 5% as of March 27, 2025, with existing home sales falling by 5.9% in March, the lowest reading for March since 2009.

Company Guidance

During Floor & Decor Holdings' first quarter 2025 conference call, several metrics were highlighted. The company reported a fiscal 2025 first quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.45, a slight decrease from $0.46 per share in the same period last year. Total sales increased by 5.8% to $1.161 billion from $1.97 billion in the previous year. Comparable store sales decreased by 1.8%, with the West Division outperforming. Gross margin improved by 100 basis points to 43.8%, largely due to lower supply chain costs. The guidance for fiscal 2025 was updated, with expected total sales ranging from $4.66 billion to $4.8 billion, representing a 5% to 8% increase from fiscal 2024. The company plans to open 20 new warehouse-format stores in fiscal 2025, down from the previously expected 25 stores, due to macroeconomic conditions. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $520 million to $560 million, and capital expenditures are expected to range from $310 million to $360 million.

Floor & Decor Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Floor & Decor Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, challenges include declining net income margins and reliance on debt. These factors create a balanced financial outlook that is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic.

Income Statement

Positive

Floor & Decor Holdings shows strong revenue growth with a notable increase from 2020 to 2025 in TTM. The gross profit margin is healthy, signifying good cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased due to a drop in net income, pointing to potential cost or operational challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect solid operational efficiency, although they have declined from previous years.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a healthy equity ratio indicating a strong asset base backed by equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high, suggesting reliance on debt financing which poses some risk. Return on Equity has decreased over the years, reflecting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Positive

Floor & Decor exhibits fluctuating free cash flow, with a positive growth rate from 2024 to TTM 2025, but previous years showed inconsistencies. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates strong cash generation from operations, yet the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests challenges in converting earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.52B	4.46B	4.41B	4.26B	3.43B	2.43B
Gross Profit	1.91B	1.93B	1.86B	1.73B	1.42B	1.03B
EBITDA	497.11M	488.65M	523.30M	551.78M	457.19M	306.22M
Net Income	204.72M	205.87M	245.98M	298.19M	283.23M	194.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.37B	5.05B	4.66B	4.35B	3.73B	2.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	186.93M	187.67M	34.38M	9.79M	139.44M	307.77M
Total Debt	1.95B	1.69B	1.63B	1.74B	1.42B	1.24B
Total Liabilities	3.15B	2.88B	2.73B	2.69B	2.41B	1.88B
Stockholders Equity	2.22B	2.17B	1.93B	1.66B	1.32B	997.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	124.94M	156.33M	255.98M	-344.15M	-106.33M	193.72M
Operating Cash Flow	526.81M	603.15M	803.59M	112.45M	301.34M	406.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-401.87M	-446.83M	-564.97M	-455.64M	-471.24M	-212.45M
Financing Cash Flow	4.56M	-3.04M	-214.03M	213.54M	1.57M	87.02M

Floor & Decor Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price75.30

Price Trends

50DMA

74.19

Positive

100DMA

81.07

Negative

200DMA

94.13

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.25

Negative

RSI

51.13

Neutral

STOCH

64.30

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 75.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.23, above the 50-day MA of 74.19, and below the 200-day MA of 94.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FND.

Floor & Decor Holdings Risk Analysis

Floor & Decor Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Floor & Decor Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Floor & Decor Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HD	72 Outperform	$366.87B	25.02	299.52%	2.49%	7.33%	-1.19%
HVT	69 Neutral	$329.67M	15.95	6.97%	6.27%	-12.29%	-55.73%
ARHS	69 Neutral	$1.23B	21.07	18.39%	―	0.71%	-45.31%
FND	65 Neutral	$8.10B	39.86	9.74%	―	2.96%	-9.49%
LOW	65 Neutral	$125.33B	18.52	-51.07%	2.06%	-2.52%	-2.98%
TTSH	65 Neutral	$307.74M	373.91	0.66%	―	-6.41%	-91.36%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.72B	10.85	-7.48%	3.11%	1.66%	-24.52%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FND

Floor & Decor Holdings

75.30

-19.97

-20.96%

HVT

Haverty

20.41

-2.88

-12.37%

Home Depot

368.74

40.47

12.33%

LOW

Lowe's

223.63

14.03

6.69%

TTSH

Tile Shop

6.88

-0.04

-0.58%

ARHS

Arhaus

8.73

-7.09

-44.82%

Floor & Decor Holdings Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Floor & Decor Holdings Approves Key Governance Amendments

Neutral

May 12, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where amendments to the company’s Certificate of Incorporation were approved. These amendments included eliminating outdated classified board provisions, allowing for officer exculpation under Delaware law, and enabling stockholders with at least 25% ownership to call special meetings. The subsequent filing of a Restated Certificate of Incorporation on May 8, 2025, incorporated these changes. Additionally, the Board adopted new bylaws to facilitate these amendments, specifying procedures for special meeting requests and conditions under which such requests may be invalidated. The meeting also included the election of directors and approval of other corporate governance matters.

The most recent analyst rating on (FND) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Floor & Decor Holdings stock, see the FND Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 21, 2025