FIGS (FIGS) AI Stock Analysis

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FIGS

(NYSE:FIGS)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:

$16.50

▲(10.74% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (low leverage, generally positive free cash flow, and improving 2025 profitability) and supportive earnings-call guidance for continued growth and margin expansion. These positives are tempered by a stretched valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support) and technical overbought conditions that raise near-term pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet & record cash

A large net cash position (~$301M) and low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.14) materially increase financial flexibility. This durable strength funds international expansion, community hubs, working capital needs, and buffers tariff shocks without forcing dilutive financing or cutting strategic investments.

Re-accelerating revenue and customer growth

Sustained top-line acceleration and rising active customers indicate durable brand traction in the healthcare cohort. Growing revenue per active customer and a larger customer base increase lifetime value potential and provide a stable platform to scale new categories, B2B TEAMS, and international expansion over the next several quarters.

High gross margins and product innovation

Consistently strong gross margins in the mid-to-high 60s reflect pricing power and DTC control of the value chain. Ongoing product innovation and new fabrications sustain differentiation and higher AURs, supporting margin durability and repeat purchasing even as the company invests in category and geographic expansion.

Negative Factors

Tariff & policy-driven gross-margin risk

Rising global tariffs represent a structural cost headwind that could compress gross margins materially absent mitigation. Pricing pass-through is limited by customer dynamics in healthcare apparel, so persistent tariff increases would erode profitability and force trade-offs between margin, pricing, or investment in sourcing shifts.

Historical cash-flow and earnings volatility

Prior negative cash-flow years and mixed cash quality show sensitivity to demand and working-capital swings. Even with 2025 positive free cash flow, inconsistent cash generation raises execution risk for funding expansion, smoothing buybacks, and absorbing inventory or tariff shocks without impacting operations or needing external financing.

Inventory write-offs and expansion cost drag

Material write-offs and rising inventory levels point to supply-chain, quality control, or demand-forecasting issues that tie up capital and pressure margins. Combined with upfront costs for international market entry, community hubs, and TEAMS, these factors can weigh on near-term profitability and exacerbate cash-flow volatility.

FIGS (FIGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.48B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)4.28M

Price to Earnings (P/E)54.2

Beta (1Y)0.71

Revenue Growth5.90%

EPS Growth68.44%

CountryUS

Employees303

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryApparel - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.10

Shares Outstanding158,093,480

10 Day Avg. Volume4,108,084

30 Day Avg. Volume4,277,931

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.05

Price to Book (P/B)4.24

Price to Sales (P/S)2.94

P/FCF Ratio35.04

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.89

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.85

Enterprise Value/Ebitda45.36

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.50

Price Target Upside4.03% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

EPS Forecast (FY)0.19

Revenue Forecast (FY)$687.59M

FIGS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFIGS, Inc. operates as a direct-to-consumer healthcare apparel and lifestyle company in the United States. It designs and sells healthcare apparel and other non-scrub offerings, such as lab coats, under scrubs, outerwear, activewear, loungewear, compression socks footwear, and masks. It also offers sports bras, performance leggings, tops, super-soft pima cotton tops, vests, and jackets. The company markets and sells its products through its digital platform comprising website and mobile app. FIGS, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyFIGS makes money primarily by selling branded healthcare apparel and related products directly to consumers. Its main revenue stream is product sales through its e-commerce platform, where it captures retail margins by controlling design, branding, and online distribution. FIGS also generates revenue through business-to-business (B2B) and bulk purchasing programs, selling uniforms and apparel to healthcare organizations and teams. Additional revenue is driven by expanding product categories (e.g., outerwear, footwear, and accessories) and by leveraging brand-led product drops/limited releases that support repeat purchasing and demand. Specific significant partnerships contributing to earnings: null.

FIGS Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Active Customers

Active Customers
Counts the number of unique customers making purchases within a certain period, reflecting FIGS' market reach, brand appeal, and potential for expanding its customer base.

Chart InsightsFIGS' active customer base has plateaued at 2.6 million since late 2023, with a slight uptick to 2.7 million in late 2024. This stabilization aligns with the company's strategic focus on international expansion and B2B growth, as highlighted in the earnings call. Despite challenges like tariff impacts and a softening Canadian market, FIGS' efforts in diversifying its market presence and enhancing customer engagement through full-price sales and product mix adjustments are beginning to show results, as evidenced by the recent 4% year-over-year growth in active customers.

Data provided by:

The Fly

FIGS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a strong operational inflection: significant top-line acceleration (Q4 +33%) with improving customer metrics, product and marketing momentum, margin expansion on a full-year basis, and a record cash position. These positives were tempered by meaningful gross margin pressure in the quarter driven by tariffs and the lapping of prior duty benefits, a $5.6M inventory write-off, and ongoing tariff and new-market investment uncertainty. Management offered a constructive 2026 guide (10–12% revenue growth, margin expansion) and concrete strategic initiatives (international expansion, community hubs, TEAMS), indicating confidence in sustaining momentum despite near-term cost headwinds.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Q4 Net Revenue Surge

Q4 net revenues grew 33% year-over-year to $201.9 million, the first quarter above $200 million in company history, driven by holiday strength and strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday performance.

Full-Year Revenue Recovery and Milestones

Fiscal 2025 net revenues reached a record $631.1 million, up 14% year-over-year; scrubwear crossed $0.5 billion for the first time and international net revenue surpassed $100 million for the year.

Customer Base and Engagement Expansion

Active customers reached a company record of ~2.9 million (up 9% year-over-year and +5% sequentially); trailing 12-month net revenue per active customer increased 4% to $216; new and resurrected customer cohorts and retention improved.

Improved Purchase Economics

Average order value rose 9% to $126 in Q4, driven by higher average unit retail (AUR) and units per transaction (UPT); orders per active customer and frequency showed meaningful improvement.

Profitability Progress and Strong Cash Position

Full-year adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 11.8% (vs. 9.3% prior year); Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $26.7 million (13.2% margin). Company ended the year with a record net cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments position of $300.8 million.

Category and Geographic Expansion

Scrubwear grew 35% in Q4 and represented 77% of net revenues; non-scrubwear increased 26% and showed strength in underscrubs, outerwear and compression socks. International net revenues accelerated 55% in Q4 to $37.7 million, and total market reach nearly doubled to 58 countries in 2025 with a plan to exceed 80 in 2026.

Strategic Product Innovation and Marketing Wins

Introduced new fabrications (FIONx, FORMx, FIBREx), expanded layering and category roadmap, and executed high-impact marketing (Winter Olympics, International Women's Day, Nurses Week, breast cancer campaign) that drove top-of-funnel momentum and word-of-mouth.

Constructive 2026 Outlook

Management guides fiscal 2026 net revenues to grow 10–12% year-over-year (targeting ~ $700M), adjusted EBITDA margin to 12.7–12.9%, operating margin to 7.6–7.9%, and expects Q1 growth in the low 20% range.

Retail & B2B Progress

Community hubs expanded to five by year-end (three opened in Q4) with plans to open four more in H2 2026; hubs are exceeding top-line expectations and targeted to be profitable in year one. TEAMS (B2B) remains small but positioned for scale with new platform features.

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Contraction and Tariff Headwinds

Q4 gross margin contracted 440 basis points to 62.9%; full-year gross margin contracted 110 basis points to 66.5%, driven by tariff pressure (a 120 bps drag in FY2025) and lapping a prior-year duty drawback benefit. Management assumes a conservative 15% global tariff stance and expects an additional ~280 bps unmitigated tariff impact in 2026 unless mitigated.

Inventory Build and Write-Off

Inventory increased 11% year-over-year to $128 million (up 7% on a unit basis). Management took a $5.6 million Q4 write-off for broken and aged inventory accumulated over multiple years, reflecting past quality/aging issues.

Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Slightly Down vs Prior Year

Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.2%, down from 13.9% a year ago, partly reflecting the inventory write-off and tariff/freight dynamics despite improved operating leverage elsewhere.

Tariff and Policy Uncertainty

The evolving tariff environment (changes to rates in sourcing countries) creates ongoing cost uncertainty; management adopted a conservative 15% tariff assumption which could continue to pressure margins if not mitigated.

International and New Market Investment Costs

Rapid international expansion and new market launches carry higher selling and marketing costs in year one; several new markets are expected to be unprofitable in their first year before scale.

TEAMS Mix and Margin Dynamics

TEAMS (B2B) remains a single-digit percentage of total revenue; it has a lower gross margin due to wholesale pricing (though management expects overall profitability benefits via lower OpEx).

No Share Repurchases during Period

Management did not repurchase shares during the period; $52 million remains available under the repurchase program, leaving buyback activity opportunistic rather than active in the quarter.

Company Guidance

FIGS guided fiscal 2026 net revenues to grow 10–12% year‑over‑year (roughly approaching $700M), with Q1 growth expected in the low‑20% range; full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7–12.9% (versus 11.8% in 2025) and Q1 adjusted EBITDA around ~7%; GAAP operating margin of 7.6–7.9% (versus 6.0% in 2025); gross margin modestly up from the 66.5% 2025 level despite modeling a 15% global tariff and an incremental ~280 bps tariff headwind (on top of ~120 bps in 2025); pricing assumed to yield only a modest net‑revenue benefit (higher AURs largely offset by UPT/frequency), an effective tax rate of ~25%, capex of about $17M, stock‑based compensation near $25M, inventory days targeted closer to ~200 after a $5.6M Q4 write‑off, a record starting cash/investment position of $300.8M with $52M repurchase capacity, and plans to open four additional community hubs in H2 2026 while maintaining active‑customer momentum off a 2025 year‑end base of ~2.9M.

FIGS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial strength is solid with a conservative balance sheet (low leverage) and generally positive free cash flow, plus improving profitability in 2025. Offsetting this, earnings and cash-flow have shown volatility (including a negative cash-flow year in 2022) and margins remain below prior-cycle peaks.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue has grown steadily over time, with 2025 re-accelerating to 8.6% growth after a near-flat 2024. Profitability rebounded meaningfully in 2025 (net margin ~5.4% vs. ~0.5% in 2024), but margins remain well below earlier peaks (notably 2020) and have been volatile. Gross margin remains strong in the mid-to-high 60% range, though it has drifted down from the low 70%s earlier in the period—suggesting some pricing/mix or cost pressure.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed: debt is modest relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.14 in 2025), and equity has grown materially across the period. Returns on equity improved in 2025 (~7.8%) from a very weak 2024, but are still moderate versus stronger years earlier in the cycle. Overall, leverage risk appears low, with the main weakness being inconsistency in shareholder returns tied to earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is generally solid: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in most years, including 2025 (operating cash flow ~$61M; free cash flow ~$53M). However, cash flow quality is mixed—operating cash flow declined versus 2024, and free cash flow also fell despite a sharp improvement in reported earnings, indicating working-capital or timing headwinds. A notable risk flag is the 2022 downturn when both operating and free cash flow turned negative, showing cash flows can be sensitive during weaker operating periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	631.10M	555.56M	545.65M	505.83M	419.59M
Gross Profit	419.84M	375.62M	376.96M	354.46M	301.22M
EBITDA	56.24M	8.96M	36.99M	39.59M	11.52M
Net Income	34.25M	2.72M	22.64M	21.19M	-9.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	580.00M	509.79M	473.21M	395.06M	311.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	300.85M	245.11M	246.69M	159.78M	195.37M
Total Debt	60.00M	53.03M	47.11M	19.16M	0.00
Total Liabilities	142.53M	132.66M	96.36M	87.33M	66.18M
Stockholders Equity	437.46M	377.13M	376.85M	307.74M	245.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.00M	64.14M	84.57M	-40.68M	63.73M
Operating Cash Flow	61.17M	81.16M	100.92M	-35.33M	66.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.96M	-94.92M	-117.19M	-5.85M	-2.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-969.00K	-44.77M	670.00K	3.52M	75.57M

FIGS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.90

Price Trends

50DMA

12.31

Positive

100DMA

11.10

Positive

200DMA

8.72

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.18

Negative

RSI

58.33

Neutral

STOCH

18.92

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.80, above the 50-day MA of 12.31, and above the 200-day MA of 8.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIGS.

FIGS Risk Analysis

FIGS disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FIGS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

FIGS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GIII	71 Outperform	$1.09B	18.62	3.88%	―	-2.61%	-11.87%
FIGS	69 Neutral	$2.48B	54.22	8.41%	―	5.90%	68.44%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SGC	61 Neutral	$160.98M	20.70	3.62%	5.74%	-0.44%	-55.22%
UAA	55 Neutral	$2.67B	-1.23	-29.46%	―	-6.35%	-565.47%
UA	45 Neutral	$2.67B	―	-29.46%	―	-6.35%	-565.47%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FIGS

14.90

10.39

230.38%

GIII

G-III Apparel Group

25.74

-1.23

-4.57%

SGC

Superior Group of Companies

10.25

-0.29

-2.72%

Under Armour

6.19

-0.19

-2.98%

UAA

Under Armour

6.35

-0.59

-8.50%

FIGS Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

FIGS Delivers Record Q4 Results, Eyes 2026 Expansion

Positive

Feb 26, 2026

FIGS reported that its fourth-quarter 2025 net revenues rose 33% year on year to a record $201.9 million, with scrubwear and international sales leading growth, while net income margin improved sharply to 9.2% despite gross margin pressure from higher tariffs and an inventory write-off. For full year 2025, revenue increased 13.6% to $631.1 million and net income climbed to $34.3 million, as operating expense ratios fell, cash generation strengthened and management said the performance leaves the company well positioned for further growth and margin expansion in 2026, even amid new global tariff headwinds.

The company closed 2025 with 2.9 million active customers and higher average order values, signaling deeper engagement among its healthcare clientele and reinforcing its positioning as a leading brand in medical apparel. Management highlighted particularly strong momentum in international markets and newer initiatives such as TEAMS and Community Hubs, suggesting FIGS is broadening its revenue base beyond its U.S. core and shoring up its competitive standing in the healthcare apparel sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (FIGS) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FIGS stock, see the FIGS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 03, 2026