Ferrellgas Partners (FGPR) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

22 Followers

Top Page

Ferrellgas Partners

(OTC:FGPR)

Select Model

Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$17.50

▼(-7.89% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial statement quality—steep revenue contraction, earnings volatility, and especially high leverage with negative equity. Technicals are mixed (near-term softness but longer-term trend support), while valuation is difficult to justify with a negative P/E. The latest earnings call adds a modest positive offset due to refinancing and commercial wins, but profitability and cost pressures remain clear risks.

Positive Factors

Market Leadership in Propane Distribution

Scale and nationwide retail presence position Ferrellgas to capture recurring residential, commercial and industrial propane demand. A broad service offering (tank installs, delivery, maintenance, equipment sales) supports sticky customer relationships and recurring revenue streams over multiple seasons.

Consistent Cash Generation

Positive operating and free cash flow provide a durable foundation for servicing debt, funding capex and sustaining operations. While year-to-year coverage shows timing variability, sustained FCF allows the company to support operations and invest in efficiency initiatives over the medium term.

Material Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Extension

Extending a large portion of near-term maturities to 2031 and expanding the revolver materially reduces near-term refinancing risk and improves liquidity flexibility. This structural change strengthens the balance-sheet runway and supports execution of operational improvements over the next several years.

Negative Factors

High Leverage and Negative Equity

A stressed capital structure with large debt and negative equity constrains strategic optionality and raises refinancing and covenant risks in downturns. Even with recent refinancing, elevated leverage limits flexibility for acquisitions, capex, or dividend policies across business cycles.

Sharp Revenue Contraction and Earnings Volatility

A ~46% TTM revenue drop and volatile profits erode scale economies and increase uncertainty around long-term unit economics. Persistent top-line weakness reduces margin sustainability and makes planning for capex and deleveraging more difficult across the next several quarters.

Declining Adjusted EBITDA and Rising Opex

Material YoY EBITDA decline and higher personnel and G&A costs compress operating leverage. If elevated operating expenses persist, they can offset per-gallon margin gains and weaken cash flow conversion, hampering sustained profitability and debt reduction efforts over time.

Ferrellgas Partners (FGPR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$344.85M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.16K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.67

Revenue Growth5.42%

EPS Growth72.92%

CountryUS

Employees4,005

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-8.88

Shares Outstanding4,857,605

10 Day Avg. Volume2,161

30 Day Avg. Volume5,156

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio<0.01

Price to Book (P/B)-0.23

Price to Sales (P/S)0.04

P/FCF Ratio1.21

Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.54

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.76

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.99

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Ferrellgas Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFerrellgas Partners, L.P. distributes and sells propane and related equipment and supplies. The company transports propane to propane distribution locations, tanks on customers' premises, or to portable propane tanks delivered to retailers. It conducts its portable tank exchange operations under the Blue Rhino brand name through a network of independent and partnership-owned distribution outlets. The company's propane is primarily used for space heating, water heating, cooking, outdoor cooking using gas grills, crop drying, irrigation, weed control, and other propane fueled appliances; as an engine fuel for combustion engine vehicles and forklifts; and as a heating or energy source in manufacturing and drying processes. It serves residential, industrial and commercial, portable tank exchange, agricultural, wholesale, and other customers in the United States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. As of July 31, 2021, it operated 50 service centers and 800 service units for propane distribution locations. The company is also involved in the sale of refined fuels; provision of common carrier services; and retail sale of propane appliances and related parts and fittings, as well as other retail propane related services and consumer products. Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas.

How the Company Makes MoneyFerrellgas generates revenue primarily through the sale of propane and related services. Its revenue model is built on several key streams, including retail propane sales, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. The company also earns income from the sale of propane appliances and equipment, as well as service contracts for maintenance and installation. Additionally, Ferrellgas may benefit from strategic partnerships with suppliers and service providers that help enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market reach. Seasonal demand fluctuations, especially during colder months, can significantly impact revenue, making the company's earnings sensitive to weather conditions and energy prices.

Ferrellgas Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 12, 2025

(Q1-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 06, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strategic financial maneuvers, such as debt refinancing and securing new contracts, which position the company for long-term growth. There were notable operational and community engagement achievements. However, the company faced challenges with decreased adjusted EBITDA, increased expenses, and a net loss for the quarter.

Q1-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Strengthened Financial Foundation

Retired $650 million of senior notes due in 2026 and replaced them with new notes maturing in 2031, enhancing flexibility and extending debt timeline. Expanded revolving credit facility to support growth.

New and Renewed Contracts

Secured 7 new national contracts and renewed 5 existing ones, representing about 3.5 million gallons, showcasing the company's ability to win and retain large nationwide customers.

Operational and Safety Improvements

Invested in in-cab safety technology and transitioned to a new PERC Education Program, leading to improved safety and a reduction in recordable injuries.

Community Engagement

Expanded partnerships with Operation Warm and Operation Barbecue Relief, providing coats to children and meals to first responders, and celebrated employee achievements with awards and recognition.

Margin Improvement

Margin per gallon increased by 6% in the first fiscal quarter, partially offsetting a revenue decrease.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $6.5 million or 18% to $29.3 million compared to $35.8 million in the prior year quarter.

Increased Operating and Administrative Expenses

Operating expenses increased by $5.6 million due to higher personnel costs and other expenses, while general and administrative expenses rose by $2.1 million.

Net Loss

The company recognized a net loss attributable to Ferrellgas Partners L.P. of $26.9 million for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Ferrellgas Partners L.P. Q1 2026 earnings call, several key metrics and strategic initiatives were discussed, reflecting a strong quarter despite some challenges. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $29.3 million, a decrease of $6.5 million or 18% from the prior year, attributed largely to increased operating and administrative expenses. Gross profit remained flat, while margin per gallon improved by 6%. Ferrellgas successfully refinanced $650 million of senior notes due in 2026 with new notes maturing in 2031, bolstering its financial flexibility. Additionally, the company expanded its revolving credit facility, signaling readiness for further growth. Significant strides were made in securing 7 new national contracts and renewing 5 others, collectively accounting for approximately 3.5 million gallons. The company also achieved a 37% increase in tank sets in the temp heat market. Despite a lack of landfall hurricanes affecting volumes, the wholesale team adapted efficiently, maintaining operational effectiveness. Ferrellgas remains focused on safety and community initiatives, including investments in in-cab safety technology and partnerships with organizations like Operation Warm.

Ferrellgas Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Below-average fundamentals driven by a sharp TTM revenue decline (~-46%) and recent net losses, partially offset by solid gross margin (~46%), positive EBIT margin (~11%), and positive free cash flow (~$63M TTM). Balance-sheet risk is elevated due to high debt (~$1.49B TTM) and negative equity (~-$350M TTM).

Income Statement

Neutral

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp revenue decline (about -46%) while profitability is mixed: gross margin remains solid (~46%) and operating profitability is positive (EBIT margin ~11%), but bottom-line results are slightly negative (near break-even net margin). Longer-term, earnings have been volatile (profits in 2022–2024 followed by losses in 2025), which reduces confidence in durability despite acceptable operating margins.

Balance Sheet

Very Negative

Leverage is the key weakness. Total debt remains high (~$1.49B TTM) while stockholders’ equity is negative (about -$350M TTM), indicating a stressed capital structure and limited balance-sheet flexibility. Total assets are relatively stable, but negative equity and consistently heavy debt load elevate refinancing and downturn risk even with some improvement versus prior years.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~$142M) and free cash flow is positive (~$63M) with strong reported free-cash-flow growth. However, cash flow coverage appears inconsistent year-to-year (weaker coverage in 2025 annual data versus strong in 2024), suggesting working-capital or timing volatility. Overall, cash flow is supportive, but not consistently strong enough to fully offset the balance-sheet leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.93B	1.94B	1.84B	2.03B	2.11B	1.75B
Gross Profit	888.78M	915.99M	983.14M	1.01B	928.03M	859.65M
EBITDA	313.91M	191.49M	308.06M	329.68M	339.83M	190.63M
Net Income	-2.02M	-15.41M	10.22M	75.85M	48.00M	-68.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.38B	1.42B	1.46B	1.53B	1.61B	1.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.38M	96.88M	113.48M	126.22M	147.53M	270.45M
Total Debt	1.49B	1.51B	1.51B	1.52B	1.52B	1.55B
Total Liabilities	1.81B	1.75B	1.76B	1.78B	1.84B	1.90B
Stockholders Equity	-350.39M	-298.44M	-871.91M	-218.36M	37.91M	88.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.59M	56.34M	174.71M	123.34M	63.79M	145.27M
Operating Cash Flow	142.27M	136.35M	245.57M	212.26M	160.47M	206.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.94M	-80.80M	-85.05M	-110.77M	-111.78M	-60.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.57M	-82.82M	-173.71M	-122.87M	-171.90M	-197.28M

Ferrellgas Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price19.00

Price Trends

50DMA

19.41

Positive

100DMA

18.28

Positive

200DMA

15.12

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.50

Negative

RSI

62.91

Neutral

STOCH

79.37

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGPR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.30, below the 50-day MA of 19.41, and above the 200-day MA of 15.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGPR.

Ferrellgas Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SGU	67 Neutral	$420.85M	7.22	19.41%	6.14%	1.04%	111.69%
SUN	67 Neutral	$9.40B	26.93	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CAPL	50 Neutral	$850.47M	18.97	―	10.09%	-10.27%	131.17%
FGPR	47 Neutral	$344.85M	-1.50	―	―	5.42%	72.92%
DK	45 Neutral	$2.08B	-4.19	-115.95%	3.42%	-22.37%	-27.22%
CLNE	43 Neutral	$578.95M	-2.80	-31.94%	―	2.59%	-192.73%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FGPR

Ferrellgas Partners

21.00

10.95

108.96%

CLNE

Clean Energy Fuels

2.61

-0.10

-3.69%

Delek US Holdings

34.37

18.80

120.70%

SGU

Star Gas Partners

13.05

0.91

7.46%

SUN

Sunoco

62.54

8.59

15.92%

CAPL

Crossamerica Partners

21.32

0.59

2.83%

Ferrellgas Partners Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Ferrellgas Partners appoints Scott Asner to board

Positive

Jan 9, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Ferrellgas, Inc., the general partner of Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. and Ferrellgas, L.P., appointed veteran investment manager and attorney Scott I. Asner to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Asner, a founding principal and Co-CEO of real estate investment platform Eighteen Capital Group with more than 30 years’ experience in multifamily real estate and a 20-year legal career, joins the board as an independent director, with no related-party transactions or prearranged selection arrangements disclosed, and will receive the standard compensation and indemnification provided to other board members, although his potential committee assignments have not yet been determined.