Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)
NASDAQ:EVLV
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Evolv Technologies Holdings
(NASDAQ:EVLV)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(6.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (rapid revenue growth, better unit economics, and positive operating cash flow) and constructive earnings-call momentum with raised 2026 guidance and improving adjusted EBITDA. These positives are tempered by still-negative GAAP profitability and free cash flow, mixed longer-term technical trend (below 100/200-day averages), and limited valuation support given the negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
ARR / Recurring Revenue Expansion
Meaningful ARR growth increases revenue visibility and recurring cash flows, reducing reliance on one‑time product sales. Management's guidance to grow ARR ~20–25% implies expanding subscription mix and predictability, supporting durable margins and customer lifetime value over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
GAAP Profitability Still Negative
Despite margin gains, persistent GAAP losses and negative ROE indicate the company hasn't achieved full profitability. Continued operating losses constrain retained earnings, limit flexibility for share buybacks or dividends, and could pressure funding options if adjusted EBITDA or cash inflection falters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
ARR / Recurring Revenue Expansion
Meaningful ARR growth increases revenue visibility and recurring cash flows, reducing reliance on one‑time product sales. Management's guidance to grow ARR ~20–25% implies expanding subscription mix and predictability, supporting durable margins and customer lifetime value over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.02
Revenue Growth41.61%
EPS Growth-1.76%
CountryUS
Employees287
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding179,350,740
10 Day Avg. Volume2,443,445
30 Day Avg. Volume3,441,754
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.88
Price to Book (P/B)10.10
Price to Sales (P/S)8.26
P/FCF Ratio-94.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-40.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.83Price Target Upside61.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$164.90M
Evolv Technologies Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless security screening systems. Its products include Evolv Express, a touchless security screening system designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolv primarily generates revenue by providing its weapon-detection screening solution to customers under commercial arrangements that include the screening hardware, associated software, and ongoing support. Key revenue streams include: (1) sale ...
Evolv Technologies Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top-line growth, durable recurring revenue expansion (ARR up 21%), materially improved profitability (positive adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M vs. a prior-year loss), strengthened cash balances and raised 2026 guidance (revenue $172M–$178M, ARR growth 20%–25%, >10,000 units deployed). Key execution wins include customer additions across education, healthcare and sports, traction for the eXpedite product, and RPO expansion (+13% YoY). Counterbalancing these positives are meaningful near-term margin pressures: Q4 adjusted gross margin contracted to 50% from 62% a year ago due to the shift to direct fulfillment, a ~$1M service accrual, timing-related subscription/product revenue effects, and a modest ~$1M memory cost headwind for 2026. Management expects margins to improve into the high single digits for adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and cash flow to be positive in H2 2026. Overall, the operational and financial momentum and the raised guidance outweigh the one-time and mix-related margin pressures.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $38.5M, up 32% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue $145.9M, up 40% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Gross Margin Contraction
Adjusted gross margin declined to 50% in Q4 2025 from 62% in Q4 2024 (a ~12 percentage-point decline), driven in part by the shift to direct fulfillment of purchase subscriptions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $38.5M, up 32% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue $145.9M, up 40% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Evolv raised its 2026 outlook to full‑year revenue of $172–178M (vs. prior $160–165M), implying ~18–22% YoY growth on 2025 revenue of $145.9M, and expects ARR to grow ~20–25% to about $145–150M (from $120.5M at 12/31/25) with ARR beginning to outpace revenue growth; the company expects to exceed 10,000 units deployed by year‑end (from ~8,000 deployed, screening >4M people/day and >4B lifetime), RPO was $293.4M at Q4 end and should accelerate, it is modeling ~50/50 purchase‑subscription vs pure subscription mix, sees Q1 revenue growth in the high‑30s with a modest Q2 sequential dip and a slightly stronger second half, targets expanded adjusted EBITDA margins in the high single digits for 2026 (vs. 7.6% and $11.1M adjusted EBITDA in 2025) while absorbing an approximately $1M memory‑chip headwind, expects cash flow positive in H2‑26, and plans a Plexus production ramp in H2‑26.Evolv Technologies Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 145.91M | 103.86M | 80.42M | 52.72M | 23.39M |
| Gross Profit | 75.30M | 59.29M | 33.83M | 1.40M | 4.03M |
| EBITDA | -20.46M | -36.64M | -95.62M | -80.64M | -1.93M |
| Net Income | -33.14M | -54.02M | -106.25M | -86.80M | -10.89M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 304.41M | 268.06M | 298.72M | 348.12M | 362.86M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.03M | 51.94M | 118.82M | 230.12M | 307.70M |
| Total Debt | 42.24M | 25.64M | 1.39M | 31.69M | 9.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 184.99M | 150.41M | 152.40M | 121.13M | 72.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 119.42M | 117.65M | 146.32M | 226.99M | 290.27M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -12.70M | -68.17M | -82.47M | -98.92M | -74.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.67M | -30.85M | -9.80M | -74.74M | -56.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.83M | -1.40M | -123.11M | -23.87M | -17.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 35.40M | 1.81M | -29.66M | 20.51M | 377.83M |
Evolv Technologies Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
6.10
Price Trends
5.59
Positive
6.10
Positive
6.73
Negative
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
60.85
Neutral
68.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVLV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.72, above the 50-day MA of 5.59, and below the 200-day MA of 6.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EVLV.
Evolv Technologies Holdings Risk Analysis
Evolv Technologies Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolv Technologies Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Evolv Technologies Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.50B | 27.53 | 27.45% | 1.29% | -2.28% | -9.94% | |
69 Neutral | $1.39B | 97.67 | 12.47% | ― | -2.83% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $70.91M | 28.93 | 12.02% | ― | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $532.39M | 23.60 | 7.67% | ― | -3.20% | 60.03% | |
59 Neutral | $1.09B | ― | -30.45% | ― | 41.61% | -1.76% | |
49 Neutral | $55.04M | -1.01 | -153.81% | ― | 5.50% | 51.32% |
* Industrials Sector Average
EVLV
Evolv Technologies Holdings
6.10
2.74
81.55%
SNT
Senstar Technologies
3.04
-0.06
-1.94%
MG
Mistras Group
16.85
7.52
80.60%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies
42.08
20.81
97.87%
ARLO
Arlo Technologies
13.05
4.17
46.96%
KSCP
Knightscope Inc Class A
3.38
0.47
16.15%
Evolv Technologies Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Evolv Technologies Appoints Henrik Kühl to Board
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc., a Nasdaq-listed AI-based security technology company, provides advanced threat detection and safety solutions for major venues, enterprises, schools, hospitals, and public spaces globally. The company has scanned...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.