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Evaxion Biotech (EVAX)
NASDAQ:EVAX
US Market

Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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EVAX

Evaxion Biotech

(NASDAQ:EVAX)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(17.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improved capitalization but still-weak cash generation and profitability. Technicals are moderately favorable with improving momentum, while valuation remains limited by losses. Earnings-call commentary adds support via clear milestone roadmap, strong EVX-01 results, and runway into H2 2027, tempered by dilution/partnering execution risks.
Positive Factors
Automated vaccine design module
Evaxion's automated vaccine design module is a durable competitive asset: it compresses antigen discovery timelines, improves construct manufacturability and lowers per-program cost. This structural efficiency strengthens platform scalability, accelerates partner-ready data packages and raises long-term deal potential across indications.
Robust EVX-01 Phase II clinical validation
Strong, durable Phase II clinical results materially de-risk Evaxion's lead therapeutic thesis. High response and immunogenicity rates bolster regulatory and partner discussions, improve probability of successful development or licensing, and provide a longer-term foundation for commercial and scientific credibility.
External partnerships and scientific recognition
High-profile collaborations and awards provide external validation of the AI-Immunology platform and expand access to resources and credibility. Such structural partnerships can open co-development channels, accelerate translation of programs, and enhance the firm's ability to attract future partners and follow-on funding.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow is a durable constraint: ongoing R&D spend requires external funding to sustain operations and advance multiple programs. Even with improved burn rates, continued losses raise refinancing and dilution risk and make long-term execution contingent on financing and milestone income.
Partner conversion risk and need for further validation
Evaxion's model depends on converting scientific interest into partnership/license deals. Historical difficulty and current partner hesitation mean commercial progress could lag, forcing the company to self-fund development or delay programs—both outcomes strain capital and slow durable value realization.
Material equity dilution potential (warrants/ADS)
Large recent insider warrant grants plus existing ADS conversion exposure and remaining outstanding warrants create a structural overhang. Future exercises and further equity-based incentives can dilute shareholders, complicate capital raises and reduce per-share economic value as the company relies on equity to fund growth.

Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evaxion Biotech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvaxion Biotech A/S, a clinical-stage biotech company, engages in developing artificial intelligence-powered immunotherapies for cancers, bacterial diseases, and viral infections. The company develops EVX-01, a cancer immunotherapy that is in clinical Phase IIb trial for metastatic melanoma; EVX-02, a DNA-based cancer immunotherapy that is in Phase IIa trial for adjuvant melanoma; and EVX-03, a DNA-based immunotherapy for the treatment of various cancers. Its programs also include EVX-B1, EVX-B2, and EVX-V1, which are vaccines that are in pre-clinical stage for the treatment of bacterial and viral diseases. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Hørsholm, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvaxion is a clinical-stage biotech and does not primarily generate revenue from marketed products. Its monetization model is centered on (1) collaboration and licensing arrangements in which partners may pay upfront payments, research funding/cost reimbursement, milestone payments tied to development/regulatory/commercial achievements, and royalties on product sales if partnered programs reach the market; and (2) raising capital through equity financings to fund R&D and operations. Revenue, when reported, is typically driven by amounts recognized under collaboration agreements (e.g., research services, reimbursements, and/or milestones) rather than recurring product sales. Specific current partners, deal terms, or the magnitude/timing of collaboration revenue are null.

Evaxion Biotech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial scientific and operational progress: strong Phase II EVX-01 results with high response and immunogenicity rates, multiple platform innovations (including an automated design module), notable partnerships and external recognition, and improved financing that extends runway into H2 2027. Headwinds include a continued net loss, remaining dilution risk from warrants/ADS conversion, the need to further validate programs to convert partner interest into transactions, and that several programs are still preclinical/early clinical. Overall, positives around clinical validation, platform advances, partnerships and cash runway materially outweigh the operational and commercialization risks at this stage.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EVX-01 Clinical Results (Phase II, Advanced Melanoma)
Objective response rate of 75% and complete response rate of 25% at 2 years; 92% of responders remained in response at the 2-year mark. High immunogenicity: 81% of individual neoantigens administered elicited a specific T-cell response, positioning the platform above comparable programs (others reported hit rates <60%). Additional biomarker/immunogenicity updates expected H1 2026 and 3-year data in H2 2026.
MSD Collaboration and First AI-Discovered Infectious Disease Licensing
Merck (MSD) exercised its option on EVX-B3, noted as the first known in-licensing of an infectious disease vaccine candidate identified/validated by an AI discovery platform — validating commercial interest in Evaxion's AI immunology technology.
EVX-04 Preclinical Success (AML)
EVX-04 vaccine designed to 16 optimal endogenous retroviral (ERV) fragments induced strong, specific T-cell responses and prevented tumor growth in multiple preclinical models. Planned clinical trial application submission in H2 2026 (first-in-human milestone).
EVX-B2 Gonorrhea Preclinical Package (Retained Global Rights)
Comprehensive preclinical data showing significant protection in mouse infection models, broad efficacy across ~50 clinically relevant strains, potent antibody-dependent complement-mediated killing, and both humoral and cellular responses — positioning EVX-B2 as a differentiated preclinical gonorrhea candidate in an area of high unmet need.
EVX-B1 CMV Multi-Antigen Strategy and Antigen Engineering
CMV program integrates engineered known glycoproteins and novel antigens; an AI-designed prefusion-locked glycoprotein B construct demonstrated superior neutralization capacity versus native form, aiming to reduce viral escape risk via a multicomponent approach.
Platform Innovation: Automated Vaccine Design Module Launched
In October 2025 Evaxion launched an automated vaccine design module that integrates multiomic data and generates ranked antigen lists within 24 hours, reducing cost and development time while improving antigen construct expression, formulation and manufacturability — strengthening end-to-end discovery-to-design workflow.
Strategic Partnerships and Recognition
Entered collaboration with the Gates Foundation on polio vaccine design; received recognition from the Galien Foundation for AI advances in human health — bolstering scientific credibility and external validation of the platform.
Improved Financial Position and Extended Cash Runway
2025 cash inflows totaled approximately USD 32 million from financing, ATM activity and MSD option fees. EIB debt-to-equity conversion reported (USD 4.1 quoted in transcript), net loss improved to USD 7.7 million for the year, and year-end cash position of USD 23 million provides runway into H2 2027. Outstanding ADS convertible basis ~8.3 million; warrant exercises reduced potential dilution by ~1.0 million ADS equivalents.
Negative Updates
MSD Did Not Exercise Option on EVX-B2
While MSD exercised on EVX-B3, it chose not to exercise its option on EVX-B2 (gonorrhea). Evaxion has retained full global rights and must now drive partner interest or fund further development internally — potentially delaying clinical advancement unless partnered or self-funded.
Ongoing Partner Hesitation / Need for Additional Validation
Several prospective partners remain 'on the fence' and Evaxion emphasized the need for further translational and clinical validation to convert interest into transactions. Management acknowledged historical difficulty translating technical strength into large, definitive deals.
Company Still Unprofitable (Net Loss)
Net loss for the year remained USD 7.7 million (improved vs prior year but still a loss). Continued R&D and platform investment mean profitability is not yet achieved.
Potential Dilution and Derivative/Currency Effects
Outstanding ADS conversion basis ~8.3 million assumed; remaining warrants of ~2.8 million ADS equivalents could be dilutive. Net financial position volatility driven by remeasurement of derivative liabilities and currency (USD/DKK) effects, noted as impacting reported net financial position (~USD 4.6 million driver referenced).
Timing/Operational Frictions
Operational frictions noted (e.g., the earnings call was delayed 24 hours for technical reasons). Management also highlighted that internal and partnered R&D efforts can be non-linear, producing timeline uncertainty for some programs.
EVX-04 and Other Programs Still Preclinical/Early Clinical
Key programs (EVX-04, many infectious disease candidates, and autoimmune exploration) remain in preclinical or early translational stages; clinical-readiness and partner-ready data packages are forthcoming but not yet in hand — meaning value realization remains forward-looking.
Company Guidance
The call provided clear 2026 guidance and financial runway metrics: EVX‑01 will report additional biomarker and immunogenicity data in H1 2026 (AACR) and 3‑year clinical data in H2 2026; EVX‑B4 (Group B strep) data is expected in H2 2026; the company plans to submit a clinical/regulatory application for EVX‑04 in H2/by the end of 2026 and will outline autoimmune program work later in the year. Key clinical and platform metrics reiterated on the call include EVX‑01 2‑year Phase II results with a 75% objective response rate, 25% complete response rate, 92% of responders remaining in response at 2 years and an 81% per‑antigen immunogenicity hit rate; EVX‑04 was designed with 16 ERV fragments; the AI‑Immunology platform produces ranked antigen lists within 24 hours and now includes an automated design module to improve expression and manufacturability. Financial guidance/positioning included year‑end cash of ~$23M, cash inflows of ~$32M during 2025 (public offerings/ATM, MSD exercise fee and warrant exercises), an EIB debt‑to‑equity conversion reported as USD 4.1, a net loss for 2025 of ~$7.7M, a reported net financial position impact of ~$4.6M, ~8.3M ADS on an as‑converted basis, warrants reduced by ~1M leaving ~2.8M outstanding, and a cash runway into the second half of 2027.

Evaxion Biotech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet improved notably (equity turned solidly positive and debt declined), but the overall profile is still constrained by persistent net losses and ongoing negative operating/free cash flow, keeping external funding dependence and dilution/refinancing risk elevated.
Income Statement
24
Negative
Revenue has improved off a very small base (from near-zero in 2020–2022 to $7.6M in 2025), but growth was volatile and turned negative in 2025 (down ~131% vs. 2024). Profitability remains weak with continued operating losses and net losses each year (2025 net loss of ~$7.7M, though improved versus 2024’s ~$10.6M loss). Overall, the business shows early commercialization progress but still lacks a stable, profitable earnings profile.
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Balance-sheet strength improved meaningfully in 2025, with stockholders’ equity turning solidly positive (~$17.0M) after being negative in 2023–2024, and total assets rising to ~$28.4M. Debt is moderate (~$7.5M in 2025) and down versus 2023–2024, which helps reduce financial strain. The key risk is that persistent losses can pressure equity again if cash burn continues, so the improved capitalization needs to be sustained by funding and/or operating progress.
Cash Flow
28
Negative
Cash generation remains a clear weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative across all periods, reflecting ongoing investment and operating losses. The cash burn improved in 2025 (operating cash flow about -$6.6M vs. -$12.9M in 2024), but free cash flow is still negative and the company is not yet self-funding. This keeps financing needs elevated and raises dilution/refinancing risk if burn re-accelerates.
BreakdownDec 2025Mar 2025Dec 2023Mar 2023Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.55M3.34M73.00K0.000.00
Gross Profit0.003.34M73.00K0.000.00
EBITDA-8.65M-9.79M-21.40M-22.57M-24.21M
Net Income-7.73M-10.57M-22.13M-23.17M-24.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets28.41M12.48M12.89M22.02M40.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments23.23M5.05M4.18M13.18M32.17M
Total Debt7.50M10.10M10.87M10.26M3.69M
Total Liabilities11.37M14.14M17.62M13.72M7.73M
Stockholders Equity17.04M-1.65M-4.73M8.30M32.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-6.66M-12.94M-17.78M-26.07M-23.29M
Operating Cash Flow-6.65M-12.94M-17.69M-25.77M-21.93M
Investing Cash Flow-14.04K-3.00K-93.00K-268.00K-1.33M
Financing Cash Flow22.48M13.13M10.69M7.85M49.80M

Evaxion Biotech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price3.82
Price Trends
50DMA
3.82
Positive
100DMA
4.72
Negative
200DMA
4.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
54.26
Neutral
STOCH
69.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVAX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.43, above the 50-day MA of 3.82, and below the 200-day MA of 4.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EVAX.

Evaxion Biotech Risk Analysis

Evaxion Biotech disclosed 117 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evaxion Biotech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our failure to meet Nasdaq's continued listing requirements could result in a delisting of our ADSs. Q4, 2022
2.
Raising additional capital may cause dilution to our shareholders, restrict our operations or require us to relinquish rights to our technologies or product candidates. Q4, 2022
3.
The amount of NOLs and research and development credits and our ability to use the same to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations and uncertainty. Q4, 2022

Evaxion Biotech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
58
Neutral
$31.86M-3.95-61.62%4455.07%77.31%
56
Neutral
$92.17M0.1849.57%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
$43.17M0.54-225.83%-14.92%72.81%
48
Neutral
$75.10M-3.58-3071.15%36.89%43.58%
47
Neutral
$26.80M-5.18-96.36%-6.51%58.31%
47
Neutral
$105.99M-2.74252.30%234.73%81.16%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EVAX
Evaxion Biotech
3.82
1.95
104.28%
IGC
IGC Pharma
0.28
-0.04
-12.81%
QTTB
Q32 Bio
6.30
4.11
187.67%
VRCA
Verrica Pharmaceuticals
6.17
-0.33
-5.15%
ELUT
Elutia
1.07
-2.13
-66.56%
NRXS
NeurAxis, Inc.
7.05
4.92
230.99%

Evaxion Biotech Corporate Events

Evaxion Posts Transformational 2025, Extends Cash Runway Into 2027 on MSD Deal and Vaccine Progress
Mar 5, 2026

On March 5, 2026, Evaxion reported that 2025 was a transformational year marked by strategic, scientific and financial advances, including a historic licensing deal with MSD for its infectious disease vaccine candidate EVX-B3 and strong two-year phase 2 data for its personalized melanoma vaccine EVX-01. The company also expanded its pipeline with the AML vaccine EVX-04 and Group A Streptococcus candidate EVX-B4, entered a polio collaboration with the Gates Foundation, won a Galien Foundation award for AI-Immunology and strengthened its balance sheet by more than $30 million and a debt conversion with the EIB, leaving it funded into the second half of 2027 and positioning it to pursue 2026 milestones in oncology, infectious diseases and autoimmune applications of its platform while maintaining an annual cash burn of about $14 million.

Evaxion plans in 2026 to launch a new AI-Immunology application for autoimmune diseases, deepen the clinical dataset for EVX-01 with biomarker, immunogenicity and three-year efficacy results and file for a phase 1 trial of EVX-04 in AML, alongside key preclinical validation steps for the EVX-B4 strep vaccine. Clinical and preclinical data presented in 2025 at major conferences for EVX-01, EVX-04 and the CMV program EVX-V1 underscored the platform’s ability to discover highly immunogenic, novel antigens, reinforcing Evaxion’s partnering appeal as it pursues additional platform and pipeline deals under tight cost control.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Delays 2025 Annual Report Filing Due to Technical Issues
Mar 5, 2026

On March 5, 2026, Evaxion A/S reported a brief technical delay in filing and publishing its 2025 annual report, which had been scheduled before the opening of the Nasdaq Capital Market that day. The company emphasized that the report itself was finalized as planned and that the issue stemmed from external vendors handling regulatory filing requirements, rather than from any underlying financial or operational problems.

As a result of the filing delay, Evaxion rescheduled its planned conference call and webcast from March 5 to March 6, 2026, while maintaining the same format for investor access via phone and webcast. The minor postponement highlights the company’s reliance on third-party vendors for regulatory processes but does not appear to signal any change in business fundamentals, limiting the immediate impact for shareholders and other stakeholders to a short-term shift in the investor communications timetable.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Sets March 5 Date for 2025 Results and Business Update
Mar 2, 2026

Evaxion A/S, a clinical-stage TechBio company listed on Nasdaq and focused on AI-driven cancer and infectious disease vaccines, announced that it will deliver a business update alongside its full-year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026. The company’s leadership will host a conference call and webcast that day before the U.S. market opens, underscoring its efforts to engage investors and other stakeholders as it progresses its AI-Immunology-powered vaccine pipeline and broader corporate strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Biotech Issues Over 9 Million New Warrants to Insiders in February 2026
Feb 27, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Evaxion Biotech’s board granted 6,544,725 warrants to directors, management and employees, with most vesting monthly from January 1, 2026, and a portion fully vested at grant, at an exercise price set in USD and converted to DKK with a floor of DKK 0.25 per share. Following this issuance, the company amended its Articles of Association and left capacity for additional warrants corresponding to a nominal DKK 7,482,257 in ordinary shares.

On February 16, 2026, the board approved a further 2,500,000 warrants to board members, management, staff and advisers, vesting monthly from November 1, 2025, at a higher USD-based exercise price subject to the same DKK 0.25 floor. After this second grant and related amendments to the Articles, Evaxion retained authority to issue more warrants for up to a nominal DKK 6,857,257 in shares, underscoring its continued reliance on equity-based incentives and potential future dilution for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Extends AI-Immunology Platform to Autoimmune Diseases and Sets 2026 Milestones
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Evaxion A/S announced that it is expanding its AI-Immunology platform into autoimmune diseases, adding this as a third core therapeutic area alongside cancer and infectious diseases. The move is intended to leverage the scalability of its AI technology to generate a broader and higher-quality pipeline of precision treatments that address underlying disease mechanisms rather than just symptoms, thereby enhancing the company’s partnership potential across all stages of drug development. Evaxion stated that the training of AI-Immunology for autoimmune applications is planned for the second half of 2026 and that this work is already incorporated into its financial plans, with its cash runway still expected to extend into the second half of 2027. The company also outlined key 2026 milestones, including additional biomarker and immunogenicity data and three-year Phase 2 efficacy data for EVX-01, a regulatory filing for a Phase 1 trial of EVX-04, a preclinical antigen design milestone for EVX-B4, and the launch of the new autoimmune application, underscoring continued execution of its strategy to create value from both its platform and pipeline assets through partnerships.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion to Outline 2026 Milestones at Biotech Showcase in San Francisco
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Evaxion A/S announced that it will present its 2026 company milestones and provide a corporate update at the Biotech Showcase conference in San Francisco, held January 12-14, 2026. Chief executive Helen Tayton-Martin is scheduled to speak on January 13, 2026, with Evaxion also planning broader engagement with potential business partners and other stakeholders during the week, coinciding with the high-profile J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which could enhance the company’s visibility and partnering prospects in the biotech and life sciences investment community.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Retains Global Rights to Gonorrhea Vaccine EVX-B2 After MSD Declines Option
Dec 19, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Evaxion A/S reported that its collaboration partner MSD chose not to exercise an option to develop Evaxion’s gonorrhea vaccine candidate EVX-B2, leaving Evaxion with global rights and the ability to seek a new licensing partner for the asset. The company emphasized that preclinical data show EVX-B2 protects against gonorrhea, a disease affecting more than 80 million people annually with no approved vaccine, and noted that MSD’s decision does not affect Evaxion’s cash runway, which it says still extends into the second half of 2027; Evaxion also continues its separate mRNA-based EVX-B2 program with Afrigen Biologics and retains potential milestone and royalty upside from MSD’s earlier exercise of an option on a different vaccine candidate, EVX-B3.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 14, 2026