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Unicaja Banco SA (ES:UNI)
BME:UNI
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Unicaja Banco SA
(BME:UNI)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
€3.50
▲(23.67% Upside)
Score is driven primarily by solid financial performance and a positive earnings outlook with improving profitability, capital strength, and credit quality. Technicals also support the stock with clear trend strength, though momentum is somewhat stretched. Valuation adds support via a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while the main watch-outs are cash-flow volatility, competitive margin pressure, and reduced capital retention due to higher payouts.
Positive Factors
Capital Position (CET1)
A 16% CET1 ratio with +90bps in 2025 provides a durable capital buffer to absorb credit shocks, support organic lending growth, and meet regulatory constraints. Strong capital reduces reliance on external issuance and sustains long-term strategic optionality for the bank.
Improving Asset Quality
Material NPL reduction and higher coverage materially lower expected credit losses and provisioning volatility. Improved asset quality enhances earnings predictability, supports capital generation, and enables more conservative credit pricing and continued lending without large provisioning drag.
Fee Diversification and AUM Growth
Strong mutual fund and AUM inflows grow non‑interest fee income and reduce reliance on NII. A larger, sticky asset-gathering franchise improves recurring revenues, cross-sell economics, and resilience to rate cycles, supporting sustainable profitability over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High Shareholder Payout Reduces Retained Capital
A structurally higher payout policy materially reduces internal capital retention, limiting organic CET1 accumulation. Over time this constrains balance-sheet flexibility to absorb RWA growth, fund lending expansion, or execute opportunistic M&A without external capital.
Competitive Pressure on Deposits and Mortgages
Sustained competition from digital and specialized banks compresses deposit margins and forces tighter mortgage pricing. This structurally limits net interest margin upside, increases funding costs, and may cap loan yield recovery even as volumes grow, pressuring long-term NII.
Volatile Operating Cash Flow & Rising Costs
Volatility in operating cash flow combined with rising operating and restructuring costs undermines cash generation predictability. This elevates liquidity management risk, can increase cost-to-income structurally, and reduces capacity to self-fund investments or absorb credit shocks over the medium term.
Unicaja Banco SA (UNI) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€7.65B
Dividend Yield5.8%
Average Volume (3M)8.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth-9.39%
EPS Growth45.60%
CountryES
Employees7,502
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding2,571,434,600
10 Day Avg. Volume5,692,517
30 Day Avg. Volume8,146,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio-8.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€2.58Price Target Upside-8.87% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Unicaja Banco SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionUnicaja Banco, S.A. provides various banking products and services to individuals and companies in Spain and internationally. It offers accounts, payments, and debit and credit cards; mortgages and personal loans; deposit products, stock exchange, pension plans, investment funds and portfolios, and savings insurance policies; and life, home, car, accident, health, and agricultural insurance, as well as SME and retail damage, and corporate liability insurance products. The company also provides cash management, short term and long-term financing, and investment services, as well as remote and mobile banking services. In addition, it engages in the property development and renewable energies activities; and invests in assets, securities, and financial companies. As of December 31, 2021, it had a network of 1,368 branches in Spain and 1 correspondent office in the United Kingdom. Unicaja Banco, S.A. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Málaga, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyUnicaja Banco generates revenue through various streams, primarily from interest income, which is derived from the loans it extends to customers. The bank earns interest on personal and business loans, mortgages, and credit lines, which constitute a significant portion of its income. Additionally, it generates fee-based income from services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and investment services. Unicaja Banco also engages in wealth management and advisory services, which contribute to its earnings. The bank's strong customer base and regional presence allow it to maintain stable revenue, while its partnerships with local businesses and institutions enhance its service offerings and customer reach.
Unicaja Banco SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial story: net profit, dividends, capital ratios, asset-gathering (mutual funds/AUM), credit-quality improvements and early strategic-plan traction are clear positives. The main negatives are intense competition (notably mortgages and deposits), higher operating and restructuring costs, cautious near-term margin/guidance, and a materially higher shareholder payout that reduces retained capital and may limit balance-sheet optionality. Overall, the positives (strong earnings beat, improved asset quality, CET1 gain, and strategic momentum) materially outweigh the negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Profit Growth and Outperformance vs Guidance
Net profit for 2025 was EUR 632 million, up 10% year-on-year and 26% above the initial guidance target of EUR 500 million.
Record Dividend and Higher Payout Ratio
Dividend for 2025 increased to EUR 443 million (EUR ~0.17/share), a 29% rise versus prior year, with ordinary payout ratio raised from 60% to 70%.
Capital Strength — CET1 Improvement
CET1 ratio closed 2025 at 16%, up 90 basis points year-on-year, driven by earnings generation and lower deductions.
Return Metrics Improved
Reported return on tangible equity increased to 10%; ROTE adjusted for excess capital reached 12% (200 basis points above prior guidance).
Loan Book Turnaround and New Production
Total performing loans grew ~1.9–2.0% in 2025 reversing prior declines; new lending production rose ~40% to ~EUR 10 billion with corporate formalized balances up 46% and mortgage new production up 30%.
Asset-Gathering Momentum — Mutual Funds and AUM
Mutual fund balances rose ~23% (funds +22.6%), assets under management +14%, net fund subscriptions increased from EUR 1,767m to ~EUR 2,800m, capturing a 9% market share of net subscriptions.
Credit Quality Improvements
Nonperforming loans fell 20% year-on-year to an NPL ratio of 2.1% (vs sector 2.8% Nov-2025); total NPAs down 25% and net NPA ratio at 0.8%; NPL coverage improved from 68% to 77%.
Lower Provisions and Cost of Risk
Total provisions declined 25% to EUR 239 million (from EUR 319m) and annual cost of risk was ~26 basis points, below initial guidance.
Revenue Beat and NII Performance
Net interest income reached EUR 1,495 million (above prior guidance of >EUR 1.4bn); fees increased (fees +~3% YoY; value-added non-banking fees +12%) and funds & insurance accounted for 49% of fees.
Strong Liquidity and Capital Buffers
Liquidity metrics remain robust with LCR around 300%; MREL at ~27%; comfortable buffers relative to requirements reported.
Strategic Plan Early Traction and AI Adoption
First-year strategic plan progress: loan approvals +40%, off-balance sheet weight rose to 27% (target 30%), 65% of planned talent hires completed, AI hub established (~50 professionals) with >50% efficiency gains in some use cases.
Upgraded Multi-Year Targets
Three-year accumulated net profit target increased from EUR 1.6bn to EUR 1.9bn; interest margin target raised to >EUR 1.5bn per year and cost-to-income expected to remain below 50%.
Negative Updates
Mortgage Segment Flat and Intense Competition
Mortgage book was essentially flat for the year (mortgages -0.2%); management cites very tight pricing and intense competition limiting growth and margins in mortgages.
Rising Operating Costs and Personnel Expenses
Total operating costs increased ~5–5.4% year-on-year driven by investments and hiring; personnel expenses rose ~4.2%, above collective agreement levels due to new hires and higher variable pay.
Restructuring Costs and Quarterly Provision Spike
A restructuring/workforce renewal provision of EUR 27 million was recorded in 2025 (EUR 38m in 2024), causing a quarter-on-quarter provisions increase; restructuring charges expected in 2026 but not beyond 2027 per management.
Pressure on Deposit Costs from Competition
Management highlighted ongoing competitive pressure on deposit pricing including offers from specialized and digital banks; deposit mix shift from term to demand (demand deposits €55bn, +3%) has helped but competition remains a risk.
Risk-Weighted Asset Growth Impacting CET1 Quarterly
Quarterly CET1 dipped earlier in the quarter to 16% due to dividend accrual and growth in risk-weighted assets (operational risk update and credit growth); RWA growth remains a headwind to capital ratios in the short term.
High Shareholder Payout Reduces Capital Retention
Higher payout policy (70% ordinary dividend and planned additional remuneration in 2026–27) implies significantly higher distributions (management signaled near 100% payout including additional remuneration for 2026–27), which will reduce internal capital retention and lead to lower capital generation vs 2025.
Conservative Near-Term NII Guidance and Margin Uncertainty
Management used a conservative rate curve for guidance (Euribor assumptions), guiding NII roughly flat for 2026 versus 2025 and signaling material margin upside more likely in 2027 — implies near-term margin sensitivity to rates and repricing timing risk.
No Material M&A Activity in 2025
Management reviewed capital flexibility and confirmed no attractive M&A opportunities were executed in 2025; potential future uses of excess capital will be assessed but no immediate deals planned.
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for net interest income roughly in line with 2025 (2025 NII €1,495m; plan now targets >€1.5bn pa), fees to grow at a low single‑digit rate, operating costs to rise ~5% with cost‑to‑income to remain below 50% (efficiency 45.5% in 2025), business volumes to grow ~3%, cost of risk to stay below 30 bps (2025 annual cost of risk 26 bps; quarterly 27 bps), and net income to exceed 2025’s €632m. The bank expects to maintain a strong solvency and liquidity position (CET1 >14% versus 16% at year‑end 2025, +90 bps generated in 2025; LCR ≈300%), while asset quality should remain healthy (NPL ratio 2.1%, net NPAs 0.8%, NPL coverage 77%). Shareholder remuneration is being increased structurally to a 70% ordinary payout for 2025 and management expects additional remuneration (~25% of 2026–27 profits) so accumulated payouts over the plan exceed 85%.Unicaja Banco SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid overall fundamentals: strong revenue/profit trajectory and a stable balance sheet with improving leverage metrics. Main offset is volatile operating cash flow and inconsistent cash conversion, which raises some liquidity/quality-of-earnings risk.Income Statement
Unicaja Banco SA has demonstrated robust revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from 2020 to 2024. The net profit margin has improved, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA margin data for 2024 limits a comprehensive margin analysis. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory with solid profitability enhancements.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The bank maintains a strong equity base with a healthy equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to the reduction in total debt over time, showcasing effective debt management. Return on equity has been positive, though slightly fluctuating. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with effective risk management strategies.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations has been volatile, with significant fluctuations noted over the years. The free cash flow has shown improvements recently; however, the operating cash flow to net income ratio has been inconsistent. While the bank has managed to maintain positive free cash flow in recent years, the volatility in operational cash flow indicates potential liquidity management challenges.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 3.28B | 2.97B | 1.94B | 1.37B | 1.18B |
| Gross Profit | 2.03B | 2.13B | 1.98B | 1.74B | 1.25B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 950.00M | 903.13M | 461.07M | 473.25M | 1.09B | 149.03M |
| Net Income | 616.00M | 573.33M | 266.70M | 277.58M | 1.11B | 77.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 95.56B | 97.37B | 97.15B | 99.00B | 115.55B | 65.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.49B | 7.50B | 8.04B | 4.66B | 21.30B | 6.67B |
| Total Debt | 4.63B | 4.81B | 5.09B | 4.48B | 3.08B | 751.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 88.56B | 90.63B | 90.51B | 92.54B | 109.22B | 61.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.98B | 6.74B | 6.64B | 6.46B | 6.33B | 4.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -406.55M | 2.77B | -17.41B | 13.93B | 1.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -355.53M | 2.83B | -17.35B | 13.96B | 2.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 234.08M | 375.22M | 343.38M | 195.29M | 103.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -416.81M | 168.97M | 367.30M | 476.42M | -22.70M |
Unicaja Banco SA Technical Analysis
Positive
2.83
Price Trends
2.73
Positive
2.54
Positive
2.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
52.14
Neutral
69.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:UNI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.82, above the 50-day MA of 2.73, and above the 200-day MA of 2.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:UNI.
Unicaja Banco SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €124.77B | 12.23 | 18.66% | 3.39% | 5.66% | 8.16% | |
76 Outperform | €80.07B | 13.75 | 15.73% | 4.05% | -7.50% | 12.76% | |
75 Outperform | €7.65B | 12.10 | 8.76% | 5.80% | -9.39% | 45.60% | |
75 Outperform | €13.20B | 12.56 | 16.71% | 3.64% | -7.12% | 15.96% | |
73 Outperform | €162.12B | 12.18 | 12.91% | 1.82% | -16.49% | 14.32% | |
72 Outperform | €17.06B | 16.91 | 7.75% | 7.43% | -6.77% | -39.63% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ES:UNI
Unicaja Banco SA
2.83
1.46
106.57%
ES:SAB
Banco de Sabadell
3.40
1.28
60.15%
ES:SAN
Banco Santander
11.09
5.81
110.24%
ES:BKT
Bankinter
14.72
6.86
87.36%
ES:BBVA
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
22.03
11.50
109.15%
ES:CABK
CAIXABANK
11.40
5.79
103.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.