Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (ES:BBVA)
BME:BBVA
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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
(BME:BBVA)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
€21.50
▲(9.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
Score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and improved leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with continued capital returns. This is offset by weaker near-term technicals (negative MACD and below key moving averages) and financial volatility signals (notably the 2025 revenue drop and cash-flow swings). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a mid-single-digit dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High and improving profitability (ROTE)
Sustained high ROTE and multi‑year EPS growth indicate BBVA generates strong returns on capital versus peers. Durable profitability supports reinvestment, dividend and buyback capacity, and funds digital/AI investments that can deepen competitive advantage and margin resilience over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 revenue decline and top‑line volatility
A severe year‑over‑year revenue drop signals reliance on volatile revenue components or one‑offs, reducing predictability of core income. Even with high profitability, persistent top‑line instability can hamper planning, weaken trend visibility for loan growth funding and stress medium‑term earnings durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and improving profitability (ROTE)
Sustained high ROTE and multi‑year EPS growth indicate BBVA generates strong returns on capital versus peers. Durable profitability supports reinvestment, dividend and buyback capacity, and funds digital/AI investments that can deepen competitive advantage and margin resilience over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€109.39B
Dividend Yield3.39%
Average Volume (3M)7.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth5.66%
EPS Growth8.16%
CountryES
Employees124,741
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding5,708,968,800
10 Day Avg. Volume8,267,449
30 Day Avg. Volume7,765,916
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)3.13
P/FCF Ratio0.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€22.35Price Target Upside13.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2
Revenue Forecast (FY)€40.31B
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services. It offers current accounts; and demand, savings, overnight, time, term, and subordinated deposits. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
BBVA makes money primarily by providing banking and related financial services and earning income from (1) net interest income and (2) fee and commission income, supplemented by trading/markets-related income and other operating income.
1) Net in...
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong operational and financial year: record net profit, robust loan growth, industry‑leading profitability and continued customer acquisition and monetization. Management acknowledged near‑term headwinds from spread compression, some elevated provisioning in specific markets (Turkey, Argentina), and capital/RWA impacts from rapid growth and year‑end technical items. They balanced this with continued capital returns (cash dividend and buyback), a healthy CET1 pre‑distributions and confidence in midterm targets supported by selective investments and AI/digital initiatives.Positive Updates
Record Net Attributable Profit
Net attributable profit reached a record EUR 10.5 billion in 2025, up 4.5% year‑over‑year in current euros; quarterly net profit remained strong above EUR 2.5 billion.
Negative Updates
Spread Compression from Falling Rates
Management highlighted negative impact from falling interest rates in core markets (Spain and Mexico). Average customer spread declined ~41 bps in 2025 and Spain experienced notable mortgage/retail spread pressure, contributing to guidance that is conservative on NII growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Attributable Profit
Net attributable profit reached a record EUR 10.5 billion in 2025, up 4.5% year‑over‑year in current euros; quarterly net profit remained strong above EUR 2.5 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BBVA guided to continue strong activity-driven revenue and profit momentum in 2026 with a group ROTE of around 20% (versus 19.3% in 2025) and a group cost-to-income below 40% (mid‑term aim ~35% by 2028); management expects solid loan growth across geographies (Spain mid‑to‑high single‑digit — Spain grew 8% in 2025 — and Mexico robust, 9.9% ex‑FX in 2025) supporting NII (Spain low‑ to mid‑single digit; Mexico mid‑ to high‑single digit) and fee growth, while maintaining cost discipline (Spain costs ex‑one‑offs ~3–4%); cost of risk should remain broadly aligned with 2025 (group YTD 139 bps; Spain 34 bps; Turkey ~194 bps in 2025/guided ~200 bps; Mexico guided higher largely due to mix at ~340 bps), and key 2025 metrics to bear in mind include net attributable profit €10.5bn (+4.5% YoY), EPS €1.78 (+5.8%), gross income +16.3% (NII +13.9%, fees +14.6%), loans +16.2% (const. €); CET1 stood at 13.75% pre‑distributions (after the €4bn extraordinary buyback CET1 falls ~105 bps to ~12.70%), the board proposes a regular €5.2bn distribution (50% payout, €0.92/sh) and is executing a €4bn buyback (first €1.5bn tranche underway), and the bank expects recurring capital generation and RWA relief of roughly 30–40 bps p.a. (2025 SRTs ~35 bps / ~€11bn RWA release).Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 36.93B | 35.48B | 58.19B | 40.37B | 31.32B |
| Gross Profit | 30.86B | -6.66B | 28.97B | 24.68B | 19.97B |
| EBITDA | 17.75B | 16.94B | 13.82B | 11.60B | 8.48B |
| Net Income | 10.51B | 10.05B | 8.02B | 6.36B | 4.65B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 859.58B | 772.40B | 775.56B | 712.09B | 662.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.76B | 118.86B | 256.84B | 225.41B | 228.87B |
| Total Debt | 81.84B | 144.43B | 179.35B | 114.64B | 116.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 797.78B | 712.39B | 720.29B | 661.57B | 614.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 57.36B | 55.65B | 51.70B | 46.90B | 43.91B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 117.30B | 32.74B | -2.54B | 21.28B | -2.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 118.13B | 33.94B | -721.00M | 23.72B | -1.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.57B | -53.55B | -1.42B | -3.91B | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.67B | -2.57B | -1.84B | -7.56B | -4.35B |
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Technical Analysis
Positive
19.70
Price Trends
18.86
Positive
18.98
Positive
16.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
59.25
Neutral
64.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:BBVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.00, above the 50-day MA of 18.86, and above the 200-day MA of 16.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:BBVA.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | €804.29M | 17.20 | 24.57% | 2.80% | 16.79% | 31.55% | |
68 Neutral | €109.39B | 11.93 | 18.53% | 3.39% | 5.66% | 8.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €16.41B | 10.53 | 12.39% | 7.43% | -6.77% | -39.63% | |
62 Neutral | €7.10B | 13.74 | 9.08% | 5.80% | -9.39% | 45.60% | |
61 Neutral | €12.37B | ― | 11.83% | 3.56% | ― | ― | |
60 Neutral | €154.31B | 10.62 | 13.89% | 1.82% | -16.49% | 14.32% |
* Financial Sector Average
ES:BBVA
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
19.71
8.52
76.14%
ES:SAB
Banco de Sabadell
3.27
0.93
39.68%
ES:SAN
Banco Santander
10.52
4.86
85.83%
ES:MAP
Mapfre, SA
4.10
1.42
52.89%
ES:UNI
Unicaja Banco SA
2.76
1.23
80.87%
ES:R4
Renta 4 Banco, S.A.
19.80
6.98
54.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.