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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (ES:BBVA)
BME:BBVA
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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
(BME:BBVA)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
€21.50
▲(8.70% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong earnings and improving capital/leverage), supported by reasonable valuation (moderate P/E and ~3.38% yield). This is tempered by weaker near-term technical signals (below key short-term averages and negative MACD) and earnings-call risk factors tied to Turkey/Argentina volatility and competitive pressure in Mexico.
Positive Factors
High Return on Tangible Equity
Sustained RoTE near 20% and high ROE signal durable core profitability and efficient capital deployment. These returns support reinvestment, consistent shareholder distributions, and give buffer to absorb shocks, indicating persistent earnings power from lending and fee businesses.
Improving Capital & Deleveraging
An improving CET1 ratio alongside a material buyback and a trend of rising equity and lower debt-to-equity strengthens loss-absorbing capacity and regulatory headroom. This enhances strategic flexibility to support lending growth and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Digital Customer Growth & Sustainable Lending
Rapid digital acquisition reduces customer acquisition costs and boosts cross-sell potential, while a large sustainable loans pipeline diversifies revenue and aligns with structural demand and regulation. Together they support durable fee growth and lower-cost deposits.
Negative Factors
Top-line Volatility
A 31.9% revenue decline in 2025 indicates meaningful top-line instability that can undermine margin and forecasting reliability. Persistent revenue swings raise the chance earnings rely on volatile items or FX, reducing predictability of cash generation and strategic planning.
Emerging Market Credit & FX Risk
Material exposure to Turkey's rising inflation and provisioning raises credit and cost-of-risk pressure. Argentina's rate and currency volatility also compress spreads and impair asset quality. These regional shocks can materially affect NII, loan performance, and capital in medium term.
Competitive Pressure in Mexico
Intensifying fintech and neobank competition in Mexico's credit and deposit markets threatens margins and deposit holdings. Sustained competitive pressure could force higher acquisition spending and pricing concessions, structurally compressing NIMs and fee growth in a key growth geography.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€112.64B
Dividend Yield3.39%
Average Volume (3M)7.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth5.66%
EPS Growth8.16%
CountryES
Employees124,741
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding5,708,968,800
10 Day Avg. Volume8,267,449
30 Day Avg. Volume7,765,916
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)3.13
P/FCF Ratio0.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€22.50Price Target Upside13.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)€40.31B
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services. It offers current accounts; and demand, savings, overnight, time, term, and subordinated deposits. The company also provides loan products; deals in securities; and manages pension and investment funds. In addition, it offers credit cards; corporate and investment banking services; insurance products and services; and real estate services. The company provides its products through online and mobile channels. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 6,083 branches and 29,148 ATMs. It operates in Spain, Mexico, South America, the United States, Turkey, Asia, and rest of Europe. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyBBVA generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from interest income, fees and commissions, and trading activities. Interest income is derived from the interest earned on loans extended to customers, which is a significant portion of their business model. Fees and commissions come from various services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and investment products. Additionally, BBVA engages in trading and investment activities that contribute to its earnings. The bank also benefits from partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions to enhance its service offerings, particularly in digital banking. The institution's focus on digital transformation has led to increased efficiency and customer acquisition, further bolstering its revenue generation capabilities.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong performance in terms of growth in tangible book value, record profits, and strategic progress in sustainability. However, there were challenges due to inflation impacts in Turkey, economic volatility in Argentina, and increasing competition in Mexico. The highlights of growth and profitability were balanced by these challenges.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Tangible Book Value Growth
Tangible book value per share plus dividends increased by 17% year-over-year and 4.5% in the quarter.
High Return on Tangible Equity
Industry-leading return on tangible equity of 19.7% and ROE of 18.8% in the first 9 months of 2025.
Record Net Attributable Profit
Net attributable profit exceeded EUR 2.5 billion, with a cumulative profit of nearly EUR 8 billion in the first 9 months, a 4.7% increase year-over-year.
Robust Loan Growth
Loan growth maintained at 16% year-over-year, leading to strong net interest income performance.
Positive Capital Position
CET1 capital ratio improved by 8 basis points to 13.42%, with plans for a significant share buyback program.
Strategic Progress in Sustainability
Record EUR 97 billion channeled in sustainable business within the first 9 months of 2025.
Strong Performance in Spain
Spain showed strong momentum with a net profit of EUR 3.1 billion in the first 9 months, driven by solid business performance and outstanding NII evolution.
Positive Asset Quality Metrics
Cost of risk in Spain remains contained at 34 basis points, and asset quality metrics are performing better than expectations.
Negative Updates
Net Attributable Profit Decrease
Net attributable profit decreased compared to the previous quarter due to higher inflation in Turkey and one-off positive impacts from the second quarter not recurring.
Challenges in Turkey
Cost of risk in Turkey slightly increased to 176 basis points, with provisioning needs remaining high in retail.
Argentina Economic Volatility
In Argentina, there was a sharp compression in spreads amid a volatile rate and currency environment, leading to some deterioration in asset quality.
Pressure from New Competitors in Mexico
Increased competition from neobanks in the Mexican market, particularly in the credit card and deposit segments.
Company Guidance
During BBVA's Q3 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and strategic insights were provided. Tangible book value per share plus dividends grew by 17% year-over-year and 4.5% in the quarter. The bank maintained high profitability ratios, with a return on tangible equity of 19.7% and a return on equity of 18.8% for the first nine months. Net attributable profit exceeded EUR 2.5 billion, despite challenges like higher inflation in Turkey and currency effects from the Mexican peso. The CET1 capital ratio improved by 8 basis points to 13.42%, bolstering shareholder remuneration plans, including a EUR 1 billion share buyback. Loan growth was strong at 16% year-over-year, particularly in Spain and Mexico, and net interest income and fees showed robust year-over-year growth of 18% and 15%, respectively. The efficiency ratio improved to 38.2%, while the cost of risk stood at 135 basis points. The bank's strategic focus included new customer acquisition, sustainability, and digital expansion, as highlighted by the acquisition of 8.7 million new customers, 66% through digital channels, and channeling EUR 97 billion in sustainable business.Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and improving profitability (net income rising through 2025) and better leverage/capital trends into 2025 support the score. Offsetting this are notable volatility signals, including a sharp 2025 revenue decline and large operating/free cash flow swings that add earnings stability risk.Income Statement
Profitability is strong and improving: net income rose from 6.4B (2022) to 8.0B (2023) to 10.1B (2024) to 10.5B (2025), with return levels supported by healthy operating profitability. Revenue expanded solidly from 2021–2024, but 2025 shows a sharp revenue decline (-31.9%), creating a notable volatility risk despite margin expansion (2025 margins materially higher than prior years). Overall, earnings power looks robust, but top-line instability in the latest year tempers the score.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains meaningful (debt-to-equity mostly in the ~2.4x–3.5x range historically), which is typical for banks but still elevates risk in stressed conditions. A positive offset is the clear deleveraging trend into 2025 (debt-to-equity down to ~1.43x) alongside steadily rising equity (from 43.9B in 2021 to 57.4B in 2025) and strong returns on equity (mid-teens to ~18% in 2024–2025). Net: improving capital position, but the business still carries structurally high balance-sheet leverage.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong in the most recent two years: free cash flow is positive and large in 2024 (32.7B) and 2025 (117.3B), with a sharp rebound versus negative free cash flow in 2021 and 2023. Free cash flow tracks reported earnings closely in 2024–2025 (roughly in line with net income), which supports earnings quality. The main drawback is volatility—operating cash flow swung negative in 2021 and 2023 and then surged dramatically in 2025—suggesting sensitivity to working-capital/financial flows that can be lumpy for banks.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 36.93B | 75.63B | 58.19B | 40.37B | 31.32B |
| Gross Profit | 30.86B | 33.63B | 28.97B | 24.68B | 19.97B |
| EBITDA | 17.75B | 16.94B | 13.82B | 11.60B | 8.48B |
| Net Income | 10.51B | 10.05B | 8.02B | 6.36B | 4.65B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 859.58B | 772.40B | 775.56B | 712.09B | 662.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.76B | 118.86B | 256.84B | 225.41B | 228.87B |
| Total Debt | 81.84B | 144.43B | 179.35B | 114.64B | 116.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 797.78B | 712.39B | 720.29B | 661.57B | 614.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 57.36B | 55.65B | 51.70B | 46.90B | 43.91B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 117.30B | 32.74B | -2.54B | 21.28B | -2.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 118.13B | 33.94B | -721.00M | 23.72B | -1.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.57B | -53.55B | -1.42B | -3.91B | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.67B | -2.57B | -1.84B | -7.56B | -4.35B |
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Technical Analysis
Neutral
19.78
Price Trends
20.37
Negative
18.94
Positive
16.57
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.23
Positive
44.24
Neutral
51.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:BBVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.42, below the 50-day MA of 20.37, and above the 200-day MA of 16.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ES:BBVA.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €74.81B | 13.79 | 15.73% | 4.05% | -7.50% | 12.76% | |
75 Outperform | €6.94B | 11.20 | 8.76% | 5.80% | -9.39% | 45.60% | |
73 Outperform | £156.31B | 12.01 | 12.91% | 1.82% | -16.49% | 14.32% | |
68 Neutral | €112.64B | 11.40 | 18.66% | 3.39% | 5.66% | 8.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €16.29B | 10.57 | 7.75% | 7.43% | -6.77% | -39.63% | |
64 Neutral | €12.95B | 11.95 | 16.71% | 3.64% | -7.12% | 15.96% |
* Financial Sector Average
ES:BBVA
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
20.16
7.81
63.21%
ES:SAB
Banco de Sabadell
3.29
0.81
32.93%
ES:SAN
Banco Santander
11.16
5.08
83.53%
ES:BKT
Bankinter
14.47
5.55
62.27%
ES:CABK
CAIXABANK
10.62
4.23
66.33%
ES:UNI
Unicaja Banco SA
2.72
1.19
78.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.