Banco Santander (ES:SAN)
BME:SAN
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Banco Santander
(BME:SAN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
€12.00
▲(8.70% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (strong profitability but offset by higher leverage and volatile cash flows). Technicals are supportive with clear trend strength, while valuation is reasonably attractive. Earnings-call guidance and shareholder returns are positive, though the Webster acquisition raises near-term capital and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Record Profit and Customer Scale
Sustained, record profitability and a roughly 100 million customer base indicate durable scale in core retail and payments franchises. Scale supports cross-selling, stable deposit funding and recurring fee income, underpinning long-term earnings power and resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Significantly higher leverage increases sensitivity to credit cycles and funding shocks, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Elevated debt-to-equity magnifies earnings volatility from credit losses and interest-rate shifts, constraining longer-term strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Profit and Customer Scale
Sustained, record profitability and a roughly 100 million customer base indicate durable scale in core retail and payments franchises. Scale supports cross-selling, stable deposit funding and recurring fee income, underpinning long-term earnings power and resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Banco Santander (SAN) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€149.64B
Dividend Yield1.82%
Average Volume (3M)24.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)1.64
Revenue Growth-16.49%
EPS Growth14.32%
CountryES
Employees206,736
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding14,689,319,000
10 Day Avg. Volume22,076,856
30 Day Avg. Volume24,027,107
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio1.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€12.14Price Target Upside9.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)€62.65B
Banco Santander Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banco Santander, S.A. provides various retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large companies worldwide. It offers demand and time deposits, and current and savings accounts; mor...
How the Company Makes Money
Banco Santander primarily earns money through (1) net interest income, (2) fee and commission income, (3) trading and other market-related income, and (4) insurance and other operating income, with profitability influenced by credit performance an...
Banco Santander Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of 2025 operating and financial results (record profit, customer growth, improved RoTE, higher CET1 and robust fee and NII growth) and a decisive strategic step via the Webster bolt-on to accelerate U.S. scale and profitability. Management outlined clear synergy targets, accretion and capital plans while reiterating shareholder return commitments. The main negatives are the near-term capital hit (~140 bps CET1), dilution from share issuance, notable one-off restructuring costs, and integration/execution risks tied to aggressive EUR 800m synergy targets and concurrent program delays. On balance, the positives—sustained organic momentum, strengthened capital ratios, clear targets for U.S. RoTE (18% by 2028), and material shareholder returns—outweigh the risks disclosed, though successful delivery of integration and capital targets is critical.Positive Updates
Record Annual Profit and Customer Growth
Reported best-ever annual profit of EUR 14.1 billion in 2025; customer base increased by 8 million to 100 million customers.
Negative Updates
Capital Impact from Webster Acquisition
Acquisition expected to reduce group CET1 by around 140 basis points; Santander Group CET1 estimated to be ~12.8% at closing (near the lower end of the 12.8–13% guidance range) with expectation to return above 13% in 2027.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Profit and Customer Growth
Reported best-ever annual profit of EUR 14.1 billion in 2025; customer base increased by 8 million to 100 million customers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Santander guided that 2026 (ex‑M&A) should see revenue grow mid‑single digits in constant euros, costs fall in absolute terms, cost of risk remain broadly stable and attributable profit rise versus 2025, with group CET1 close to 13% (12.8–13%) by end‑'26 and expected organic capital generation of ~70 bps; including M&A (TSB and Webster) 2026 revenue would be double‑digit. For 2027 the group targets double‑digit revenue growth, net profit up mid‑teens and CET1 >13%. Looking to 2028 Santander expects group RoTE in excess of 20%, Santander U.S. RoTE of 18% (post‑AT1) and U.K. RoTE ~16%; the Webster deal (EUR 12.2bn headline, ~EUR 10.3bn in euros) is expected to deliver around EUR 800m pre‑tax cost synergies (circa 19% of the combined cost base) fully phased in by end‑'28, drive combined efficiency below 40%, ~7–8% EPS accretion in 2028, ~15% ROIC and a one‑off CET1 impact of ~140 bps at closing (group CET1 ~12.8% at closing, back >13% in 2027). The group reiterated its capital return commitment of at least EUR 10bn of buybacks for '25–'26 (new EUR 5bn buyback starting immediately) and a 50% ordinary payout policy.Banco Santander Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 119.89B | 50.80B | 45.78B | 41.95B | 39.01B |
| Gross Profit | 48.02B | 51.20B | 46.97B | 43.36B | 39.01B |
| EBITDA | 19.35B | 22.22B | 19.64B | 18.23B | 16.87B |
| Net Income | 14.10B | 12.57B | 11.08B | 9.61B | 8.12B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.87T | 1.84T | 1.80T | 1.73T | 1.60T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 457.58B | 237.41B | 288.46B | 223.07B | 210.69B |
| Total Debt | 520.75B | 483.38B | 310.98B | 282.96B | 249.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.75T | 1.73T | 1.69T | 1.64T | 1.50T |
| Stockholders Equity | 103.17B | 98.60B | 95.42B | 89.10B | 86.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 77.68B | -32.65B | 66.92B | 16.87B | 45.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.53B | -24.16B | 80.56B | 27.71B | 56.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.83B | -3.71B | -80.91B | -3.90B | -3.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.20B | -5.51B | -2.06B | -9.96B | -1.32B |
Banco Santander Technical Analysis
Positive
11.04
Price Trends
10.13
Positive
10.09
Positive
9.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
64.92
Neutral
92.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:SAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.97, above the 50-day MA of 10.13, and above the 200-day MA of 9.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:SAN.
Banco Santander Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | €149.64B | 10.62 | 13.89% | 1.82% | -16.49% | 14.32% | |
69 Neutral | €779.92M | 19.28 | 24.57% | 2.80% | 16.79% | 31.55% | |
68 Neutral | €104.41B | 11.93 | 18.53% | 3.39% | 5.66% | 8.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €15.82B | 10.53 | 12.39% | 7.43% | -6.77% | -39.63% | |
62 Neutral | €6.82B | 11.30 | 9.08% | 5.80% | -9.39% | 45.60% | |
61 Neutral | €12.43B | ― | 9.77% | 3.56% | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
ES:SAN
Banco Santander
10.20
3.82
59.87%
ES:SAB
Banco de Sabadell
3.15
0.58
22.62%
ES:BBVA
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
18.58
6.49
53.69%
ES:MAP
Mapfre, SA
4.08
1.04
34.08%
ES:UNI
Unicaja Banco SA
2.65
1.02
62.52%
ES:R4
Renta 4 Banco, S.A.
19.20
6.18
47.52%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.