Tubacex (TUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €364.92M
• Dividend Yield: 6.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 240.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -10.37%
• EPS Growth: 38.82%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 2,578
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 126,549,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 213,756
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 240,623
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €3.50
• Price Target Upside: 12.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €811.99M

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: €3.00 ▼(-3.85% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance and cash burn (negative operating and free cash flow in the last two years) alongside elevated leverage. Technical indicators also point to a bearish trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). A high dividend yield provides some offset, but the negative P/E reflects loss-making fundamentals.

Positive Factors

Long-term contracts revenue model

A revenue model driven by long-term contracts and project sales provides predictable topline visibility and backlog conversion over quarters. This durability supports planning, aids capital allocation, and cushions near-term volatility in cyclical end markets, improving stability over 2–6 months.

Diversified end-market exposure

Exposure across oil & gas, aerospace, renewables, nuclear and chemicals spreads demand risk and links growth to structural trends like energy transition and infrastructure spending. Diversification reduces reliance on any single cycle and supports steadier revenue streams over coming months.

History of solid operating margins (2022–2024)

Prior multi-year margin strength and scale demonstrate underlying operational capability and pricing power in high-spec steel tubing. That track record suggests the business can restore profitability as volumes or pricing recover, making margins a credible medium-term recovery lever.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Sustained cash burn erodes liquidity and forces reliance on external funding or asset sales. Negative OCF and FCF in consecutive years heighten refinancing and covenant risk, constrain capex for growth or modernization, and reduce margin for error during cyclical downturns.

Elevated leverage and weakening equity base

High leverage and a shrinking equity base increase financial fragility in a cyclical steel business. Elevated debt amplifies interest and refinancing exposure, limits strategic flexibility, and raises the chance of covenant breaches should industry conditions worsen over the next several quarters.

Recent swing to net loss and revenue contraction

A return to net losses and falling revenue signals weaker demand and margin pressure that can persist multiple quarters. This undermines cash generation, strains stakeholder confidence, and increases the time needed to revert to prior profitable operating levels even if market conditions improve.

Tubacex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tubacex, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and sale of stainless steel and nickel tubes in Spain and internationally. The company provides seamless stainless steel tubes, including CRA OCTG tubing and casing; aerospace, space exploration, and defense tubing; hydraulic and instrumentation tubing; subsea umbilicals; and medium and high pressure tubes. It also offers round bars, billets, and ingots; fittings, and special and machined components, such as butt welding fittings, tube bends, elbows, tees, reducers and caps; and Tubacoat, a ceramic coating for long steel and high-nickel alloy products. In addition, it provides design and simulation, logistics, repair and maintenance, and added-value services comprising shotpeening, connection threading, bending, cutting, machining and bevelling, welding, overlay, preassemblies, marking, finning, studding, polishing, grooving, lab testing, packaging, and storage services. Its products have applications in low carbon, power generation, oil and gas exploration and production, fertilizer, aerospace, hydrocarbon processing, and other industries. Tubacex, S.A. was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Llodio, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

Tubacex generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-quality tubes and pipes, which are essential for various applications in the energy and industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and project-based sales, which provide stability and predictability in earnings. Key revenue streams include the supply of seamless and welded tubes for oil and gas exploration and production, as well as components for aerospace and other industrial applications. Additionally, Tubacex benefits from strategic partnerships with major players in the energy sector, which enhances its market position and contributes to its earnings. The company's focus on innovation and the development of new products for emerging markets, such as renewable energy, also plays a crucial role in driving future revenue growth.

Tubacex Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak financial profile: profitability deteriorated into a net loss in 2025 with compressed margins, leverage remains elevated for a cyclical steel business, and cash flow is the key risk with negative operating cash flow in 2024–2025 and mostly negative free cash flow outside 2022–2023.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2022–2023, followed by slight contraction in 2024 and a mid-single-digit decline in 2025. Profitability also weakened meaningfully—after positive net income in 2022–2024, the company swung back to a net loss in 2025 with negative operating profit, and margins compressed sharply versus prior years. Positives include a history of solid operating margins in 2022–2024 and a return to higher scale versus 2020–2021, but the latest year’s deterioration reduces confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated, with debt consistently high and debt-to-equity generally above 1x and often near/above 2x historically. Equity declined in 2025 versus 2024, and returns on equity turned negative in 2025 after being positive in 2022–2024, signaling pressure on the capital base. Offsetting factors include sizeable asset backing and some improvement in leverage from peak levels earlier in the period, but overall balance-sheet risk remains meaningful for a cyclical steel business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area: operating cash flow is negative in 2024 and 2025, and free cash flow is negative across most years except 2022–2023. The move from positive operating cash flow in 2022–2023 to negative in 2024–2025 suggests worsening working-capital and/or lower cash profitability, and free cash outflows increased again in 2025. While free cash flow exceeded net income in some loss years (driven by accounting losses), the consistent cash burn in the last two years raises funding and liquidity risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	719.26M	767.54M	852.39M	714.71M	341.86M
Gross Profit	172.38M	466.20M	487.83M	440.62M	194.67M
EBITDA	39.89M	111.00M	127.23M	97.33M	16.67M
Net Income	-31.28M	22.85M	36.33M	20.23M	-32.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.22B	1.33B	1.21B	1.16B	1.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	156.75M	236.39M	179.01M	176.85M	157.99M
Total Debt	525.08M	517.37M	507.13M	501.23M	526.33M
Total Liabilities	822.94M	850.56M	917.82M	883.69M	792.60M
Stockholders Equity	292.31M	378.03M	240.04M	221.48M	197.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-64.63M	-121.94M	28.22M	60.82M	-50.66M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.05M	-34.98M	91.15M	87.61M	-23.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-54.27M	-85.63M	-60.98M	-22.43M	-6.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-10.33M	183.89M	-35.12M	-38.10M	11.05M

Tubacex Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:TUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.39, below the 50-day MA of 3.40, and below the 200-day MA of 3.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:TUB.

Tubacex Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ACX	58 Neutral	€3.01B	-78.76	3.97%	4.82%	-3.02%	43.07%
OHLA	52 Neutral	€557.81M	297.92	-6.41%	―	1.39%	72.34%
TLGO	48 Neutral	€362.42M	-3.44	-92.71%	―	-16.41%	-952.46%
TUB	41 Neutral	€364.92M	-13.10	11.13%	6.29%	-10.37%	38.82%

Tubacex Corporate Events

Tubacex Shareholders Narrow Syndication Pact to Single Board Appointment

Spanish shareholders Corporación JM Aristrain and Torre Rioja-Madrid SOCIMI have amended their shareholders’ agreement regarding their stakes in Tubacex, S.A. The addendum clarifies that their share syndication is strictly limited to coordinating voting rights to support the appointment of a single proprietary director representing Torre Rioja on Tubacex’s board.

Under the revised terms, the parties agree to align their political rights attached to Torre Rioja’s entire holding and Corporación Aristrain’s 3.18% stake solely to propose, elect, and maintain Ángel Soria Vaquerizo as proprietary director. This narrows the scope of their cooperation to board representation, signaling that the pact is not intended as a broader concerted action over Tubacex’s corporate control or wider governance matters.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:TUB) stock is a Hold with a EUR3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tubacex stock, see the ES:TUB Stock Forecast page.

Tubacex Updates Board Regulations to Align with Good Governance Code

Tubacex has formalized a set of Board of Directors Regulations that define how the board and its committees are organized, how they operate, and what standards of conduct apply to directors, the non‑director secretary, and senior managers. The rules are designed to align with applicable laws, the company’s bylaws, and Spain’s Unified Code of Good Governance, with the Board Secretary empowered to resolve interpretative doubts.

The regulations also establish a clear process for amendment, allowing changes to be proposed by the chair, a third of directors, or any committee, and requiring prior reports from the Audit and Compliance Committee and, where relevant, other affected committees. Any modification must be circulated at least ten days before the meeting and approved by a two‑thirds majority of the full board for each substantially independent matter, reinforcing rigor and transparency in corporate governance changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:TUB) stock is a Hold with a EUR3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tubacex stock, see the ES:TUB Stock Forecast page.

Tubacex Sets Date for Release of 2025 Annual Results and Investor Webcast

Tubacex has announced that it will release its 2025 annual results on February 27, 2026, before the opening of financial markets, and will present the figures to investors and analysts via a webcast later that morning. The scheduled disclosure underlines the company’s adherence to market transparency requirements and provides a clear timetable for shareholders and other stakeholders to assess its performance and outlook for the past financial year.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:TUB) stock is a Hold with a EUR3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tubacex stock, see the ES:TUB Stock Forecast page.

Tubacex Sets Date for Release of 2025 Annual Results

Tubacex has notified the market that it will publish its 2025 annual results on Friday, 27 February 2026, before the opening of financial markets, and will present the figures to investors and analysts via a webcast later that morning. The scheduled disclosure underlines the company’s adherence to market transparency requirements and provides stakeholders with a clear timetable for assessing Tubacex’s financial and operational performance for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:TUB) stock is a Hold with a EUR3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tubacex stock, see the ES:TUB Stock Forecast page.