MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (ES:MRL)
BME:MRL
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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
(BME:MRL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
€15.50
▲(13.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability rebound and manageable leverage, but with weaker cash-flow alignment to earnings) and a positive technical setup (trend above key moving averages with supportive momentum). Earnings call commentary is constructive on operations and data center growth, but flat 2026 EPS/DPS guidance and rising leverage metrics temper upside. Valuation is a headwind with a relatively high P/E and only moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Stable cash generation (FFO & GRI growth)
Consistent FFO and like‑for‑like rental income growth across asset classes indicates durable operating cash generation. High occupancies reduce vacancy risk and support predictable rental streams, underpinning dividend capacity and funding for selective growth over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and heavy CapEx needs
Net debt/EBITDA rising toward ~9.0x alongside record Phase‑2 CapEx commitments increases leverage and funding risk. Elevated investment needs heighten exposure to higher financing costs and capital‑market execution, which can pressure EPS/DPS and restrict optionality if rates or financing spreads widen.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable cash generation (FFO & GRI growth)
Consistent FFO and like‑for‑like rental income growth across asset classes indicates durable operating cash generation. High occupancies reduce vacancy risk and support predictable rental streams, underpinning dividend capacity and funding for selective growth over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€8.98B
Dividend Yield3.08%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth7.09%
EPS Growth369.07%
CountryES
Employees282
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding620,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,265,993
30 Day Avg. Volume1,027,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)12.98
P/FCF Ratio17.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€16.90Price Target Upside23.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)€604.23M
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, SA, one of the main real estate companies listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange (IBEX-35), has as its main activity the acquisition and management of tertiary real estate assets in the Iberian Peninsula. The Company is a p...
How the Company Makes Money
MERLIN Properties generates revenue primarily through rental income from its diversified portfolio of commercial properties. The company leases office spaces, retail units, and logistics facilities to a range of tenants, which includes multination...
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showed a strong operational and execution year driven by data centers and robust performance across traditional assets: FFO and like-for-like income growth, high occupancies, significant valuation uplift (largely from data centers), and record CapEx commitments underpin a positive growth runway. Offsetting factors include higher financial expenses from aggressive data center investment leading to flat 2026 EPS/DPS guidance, a rising net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, localized office softness in Barcelona, and timing/conditionality risks (EU Gigafactory, large logistics vacancy, and complex hyperscaler negotiations). Overall, achievements and growth catalysts notably outweigh the challenges, but execution and funding risks merit monitoring in the near term.Positive Updates
Strong FFO and GRI Growth
FFO of EUR 326.7M, up +5.1% year-on-year; GRI EUR 541.9M with +3.5% like-for-like growth, demonstrating solid operating cash generation across portfolio.
Negative Updates
Guidance and EPS/DPS Flat for 2026
Management expects relatively flat EPS and DPS for 2026 as top-line growth is absorbed by higher financial expenses while Data Center CapEx is deployed; decision to continue not capitalizing interest keeps reported earnings pressured.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong FFO and GRI Growth
FFO of EUR 326.7M, up +5.1% year-on-year; GRI EUR 541.9M with +3.5% like-for-like growth, demonstrating solid operating cash generation across portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a 2026 outlook of relatively flat EPS and DPS (FY25 EPS €0.58, +7% vs initial guidance; proposed FY25 dividend €0.44), noting FY25 FFO €326.7m (+5.1% y/y) and GRI €541.9m (+3.5% LFL); they expect modest top‑line upside (~€40m) to be absorbed by higher financing costs as CapEx stays high (2025 CapEx commitments €987m vs €836m prior) and plan to tap debt markets in H2‑26 while keeping LTV low at 28.9% (100% fixed) and net debt/EBITDA at c.9.0x; key operating metrics underpinning the guidance include offices LFL +3.5% with 94.2% occupancy and a 4.8% release spread, logistics €86m rents with 96.4% occupancy and a 5.8% release spread, shopping centers GRI €133m (+4.7% LFL) and 11.0% OCR, data centers with Phase‑1 64MW fully contracted (100% occ.), 112MW IT lit vs 45MW prior, Phase‑2 expanded to 254MW targeting ~14.4% gross yield on cost (stabilized Phase‑1 GRI €97m; Phase‑2 mid‑€300m+ stabilized GRI), a 4.7% GAV LFL uplift (data centers contributed ~€360m), NTA €15.36/share and TSR 10.2%.MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 520.59M | 538.96M | 503.02M | 504.70M | 439.04M | 382.83M |
| Gross Profit | 449.71M | 538.96M | 508.64M | 420.96M | 389.94M | 336.51M |
| EBITDA | 419.06M | 954.23M | 430.52M | 36.60M | 153.42M | 518.04M |
| Net Income | 663.86M | 786.13M | 283.76M | -83.50M | 263.09M | 512.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.37B | 14.27B | 13.46B | 12.07B | 12.05B | 14.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 849.19M | 1.22B | 1.56B | 461.22M | 427.45M | 942.87M |
| Total Debt | 4.44B | 5.06B | 4.92B | 4.52B | 4.25B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.49B | 6.19B | 5.96B | 5.53B | 5.20B | 7.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.89B | 8.07B | 7.50B | 6.54B | 6.85B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 405.03M | 297.30M | 225.96M | 220.44M | 158.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 415.60M | 316.78M | 227.97M | 222.16M | 162.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -576.31M | -294.38M | -274.75M | 1.18B | -454.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -177.02M | 1.07B | 78.56M | -1.70B | 335.39M |
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Technical Analysis
Positive
13.63
Price Trends
13.63
Positive
13.03
Positive
12.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
60.03
Neutral
90.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:MRL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.91, above the 50-day MA of 13.63, and above the 200-day MA of 12.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:MRL.
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | €3.22B | 9.77 | 6.49% | 5.64% | -16.98% | ― | |
69 Neutral | €1.54B | 11.48 | 9.41% | 4.05% | 30.74% | 67.62% | |
68 Neutral | €8.98B | 8.61 | 9.97% | 3.08% | 7.09% | 369.07% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | €268.32M | 21.63 | -6.13% | ― | 4.98% | 41.96% | |
56 Neutral | €1.77B | 24.95 | -0.63% | 17.21% | ― | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ES:MRL
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
14.52
6.10
72.53%
ES:COL
Inmobiliaria Colonial
5.20
0.21
4.30%
ES:RLIA
Realia Business
1.03
0.14
16.48%
ES:ARM
Arima Real Estate SOCIMI SA
10.98
1.88
20.67%
ES:MVC
Metrovacesa SA
11.70
3.74
46.98%
ES:YEPSA
Emperador Properties SOCIMI SA
8.65
4.45
105.95%
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Corporate Events
MERLIN Properties posts double-digit net profit growth as data centers and core assets drive 2025 gains
Feb 27, 2026
MERLIN Properties reported a strong 2025, with total revenues of €565 million, EBITDA up 9.7% to €416 million and operating profit rising 5.1% to €327 million, while net profit reached €786 million on the back of significan...
MERLIN Properties Details 2025 Director Pay and 2026 Remuneration Framework
Feb 27, 2026
MERLIN Properties has published its annual report on directors’ remuneration for the 2025 financial year, detailing how executive and external directors were paid and how the approved remuneration policy was applied. The document outlines fi...
MERLIN Properties Details Unitary Share and Voting Structure in Governance Report
Feb 27, 2026
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. has reported its share capital structure in its latest annual corporate governance disclosure for the 2025 financial year. The company confirms a share capital of 563,724,899 euros, represented by the same number of ...
MERLIN Properties Keeps Asset Base Stable as Investment Property Portfolio Grows
Feb 27, 2026
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. reported total assets of €10.02 billion as of 31 December 2025, broadly flat year-on-year, with a slight increase from €10.02 billion at the end of 2024. The balance sheet shows a heavier tilt toward non-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.