MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €8.00B
• Dividend Yield: 3.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 7.09%
• EPS Growth: 369.07%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 282
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 563,724,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,265,993
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,027,422
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €16.24
• Price Target Upside: 14.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €602.07M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €15.50 ▲(9.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/09/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability rebound and manageable leverage, but with weaker cash-flow alignment to earnings) and a positive technical setup (trend above key moving averages with supportive momentum). Earnings call commentary is constructive on operations and data center growth, but flat 2026 EPS/DPS guidance and rising leverage metrics temper upside. Valuation is a headwind with a relatively high P/E and only moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Stable cash generation (FFO & GRI growth)

Consistent FFO and like‑for‑like rental income growth across asset classes indicates durable operating cash generation. High occupancies reduce vacancy risk and support predictable rental streams, underpinning dividend capacity and funding for selective growth over the next 2–6 months.

Data center execution and higher-yield earnings

Successful data‑center execution converted capacity into contracted cash flows and meaningful revaluations. Higher gross yields on cost and Phase‑2 scale create a durable, higher‑margin income stream that diversifies revenue away from traditional commercial cycles over the medium term.

Conservative leverage profile and capital access

A low LTV with 100% fixed‑rate debt and maintained S&P/Moody’s ratings materially reduces refinancing and repricing risk. Strong NTA and credit standing support access to capital to fund data‑center CapEx while preserving financial flexibility and dividend policy resilience.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage and heavy CapEx needs

Net debt/EBITDA rising toward ~9.0x alongside record Phase‑2 CapEx commitments increases leverage and funding risk. Elevated investment needs heighten exposure to higher financing costs and capital‑market execution, which can pressure EPS/DPS and restrict optionality if rates or financing spreads widen.

Earnings quality and cash conversion mismatch

Reported profits include sizable revaluation and non‑operating gains, while operating cash covers only a modest portion of net income. This weakens the durability of reported earnings and increases the risk that distributable cash and dividend coverage will be strained if revaluations normalise.

Market concentration and leasing execution risk

Local market oversupply (Barcelona offices), a binary logistics leasing dependency, and complex hyperscaler negotiations create concentrated execution risks. These factors can produce material near‑term revenue volatility and delay stabilisation of new assets or re‑lettings over the next 2–6 months.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, SA, one of the main real estate companies listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange (IBEX-35), has as its main activity the acquisition and management of tertiary real estate assets in the Iberian Peninsula. The Company is a public limited company incorporated as a SOCIMI. The main activity of the Company is the acquisition, active management, operation and selective rotation of quality commercial real estate assets in the investment segment Core and Core Plus, mainly in Spain and, to a lesser extent, in Portugal. The Company focuses on the office, retail and logistics market.

How the Company Makes Money

MERLIN Properties generates revenue primarily through rental income from its diversified portfolio of commercial properties. The company leases office spaces, retail units, and logistics facilities to a range of tenants, which includes multinational corporations and local businesses. Key revenue streams include long-term lease agreements that provide predictable cash flows, as well as property management services. The company may also realize gains from property sales or development projects, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with other real estate firms and stakeholders enhance its market presence and may lead to joint ventures on new developments, further diversifying its income sources.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is strong with a clear profitability rebound (Income Statement score 74), but earnings quality looks variable (net income unusually high vs revenue). Balance sheet leverage is manageable for a REIT and improving (Balance Sheet score 67), though absolute debt remains material. Cash flow is improving but trails reported earnings (Cash Flow score 58), suggesting some recent gains may be less repeatable.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steady to modestly growing over the last few years (up 3.5% in 2025 after a flat 2024), and profitability improved sharply in 2024–2025 after a loss in 2023. Margins are very high in 2025 (net income exceeding revenue), which supports earnings strength but also signals that results likely include meaningful non-operating or revaluation-type gains that can be volatile year to year. Overall: strong recent profitability and improving trajectory, with some earnings-quality variability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate for a diversified REIT: debt-to-equity is ~0.63 in 2025, improved from higher levels in 2020–2021, and equity has grown alongside assets. Return on equity improved to ~9.7% in 2025 from low levels in 2024 and negative in 2023, indicating better recent performance. Key risk remains the absolute debt load (~5.1B) and ongoing sensitivity to property values and financing conditions, even though leverage is not extreme.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and rising (operating cash flow increased to ~416M in 2025 from ~317M in 2024; free cash flow to ~405M from ~297M). Free cash flow is close to net income in recent years, which is a positive sign for cash conversion. However, operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income in 2024–2025, implying that a meaningful share of reported earnings is not showing up in operating cash flow and could be less repeatable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	520.59M	538.96M	503.02M	504.70M	439.04M	382.83M
Gross Profit	449.71M	538.96M	508.64M	420.96M	389.94M	336.51M
EBITDA	419.06M	954.23M	430.52M	36.60M	153.42M	518.04M
Net Income	663.86M	786.13M	283.76M	-83.50M	263.09M	512.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.37B	14.27B	13.46B	12.07B	12.05B	14.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	849.19M	1.22B	1.56B	461.22M	427.45M	942.87M
Total Debt	4.44B	5.06B	4.92B	4.52B	4.25B	6.19B
Total Liabilities	5.49B	6.19B	5.96B	5.53B	5.20B	7.25B
Stockholders Equity	7.89B	8.07B	7.50B	6.54B	6.85B	7.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	405.03M	297.30M	225.96M	220.44M	158.79M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	415.60M	316.78M	227.97M	222.16M	162.46M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-576.31M	-294.38M	-274.75M	1.18B	-454.00K
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-177.02M	1.07B	78.56M	-1.70B	335.39M

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:MRL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.92, above the 50-day MA of 13.07, and above the 200-day MA of 12.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:MRL.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COL	74 Outperform	€3.27B	9.77	6.49%	5.64%	-16.98%	―
MRL	68 Neutral	€8.00B	25.71	8.29%	3.08%	7.09%	369.07%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
RLIA	65 Neutral	€1.57B	11.48	3.83%	4.05%	30.74%	67.62%
HOME	62 Neutral	€1.79B	12.95	5.74%	16.56%	-19.93%	-42.19%
ISUR	58 Neutral	€301.22M	6.76	14.91%	3.93%	31.65%	46.61%
ARM	50 Neutral	€293.24M	38.00	-6.13%	―	4.98%	41.96%

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Corporate Events

MERLIN Properties posts double-digit net profit growth as data centers and core assets drive 2025 gains

MERLIN Properties reported a strong 2025, with total revenues of €565 million, EBITDA up 9.7% to €416 million and operating profit rising 5.1% to €327 million, while net profit reached €786 million on the back of significant data center revaluations. The company’s gross asset value climbed to €12.63 billion and EPRA NTA per share to €15.36, while leverage remained low with a 28.9% loan-to-value ratio and fully fixed-rate debt, underpinning its solid credit ratings.

Operationally, MERLIN delivered like-for-like rental growth of 3.5% and positive release spreads across all asset categories, led by record office occupancy of 94.2% and robust logistics performance with 96.4% occupancy and rising renewal rents. The digital infrastructure division was a key growth driver, securing leases for an additional 66 MW that fully occupy phase 1 and the first building of phase 2 of its data centers, reinforcing the strategic importance of the Plan MEGA development pipeline and supporting continued portfolio revaluation and income visibility.

The offices segment benefited from strong demand in Madrid and Lisbon, including 56,000 square meters of pre-leasing in four refurbishment projects that support future rental income growth. In logistics, MERLIN delivered a new 18,131 square meter warehouse in Cabanillas Park II to Total and reported that 175,000 square meters of its 461,000 square meter development land bank is already pre-let or under letters of intent, signaling sustained tenant interest and a solid foundation for further expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:MRL) stock is a Buy with a EUR13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA stock, see the ES:MRL Stock Forecast page.

MERLIN Properties Details 2025 Director Pay and 2026 Remuneration Framework

MERLIN Properties has published its annual report on directors’ remuneration for the 2025 financial year, detailing how executive and external directors were paid and how the approved remuneration policy was applied. The document outlines fixed and variable components, the criteria used to determine pay, and the governance process behind these decisions.

The report also sets out the planned remuneration structure for directors in 2026, including malus and clawback mechanisms, termination payment conditions, and contract terms for executives. It highlights the role and work of the appointments and remuneration committee and explains how the remuneration system is aligned with the company’s risk profile and long-term sustainable performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:MRL) stock is a Buy with a EUR13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA stock, see the ES:MRL Stock Forecast page.

MERLIN Properties Details Unitary Share and Voting Structure in Governance Report

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. has reported its share capital structure in its latest annual corporate governance disclosure for the 2025 financial year. The company confirms a share capital of 563,724,899 euros, represented by the same number of shares and voting rights, with no additional votes assigned for loyalty shares.

The report clarifies that the company does not currently apply double voting rights for long-term shareholders and has no shares registered in a special loyalty register. MERLIN also indicates there are no different classes of shares with differentiated rights, underscoring a straightforward one-share, one-vote structure for all shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:MRL) stock is a Buy with a EUR13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA stock, see the ES:MRL Stock Forecast page.

MERLIN Properties Keeps Asset Base Stable as Investment Property Portfolio Grows

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. reported total assets of €10.02 billion as of 31 December 2025, broadly flat year-on-year, with a slight increase from €10.02 billion at the end of 2024. The balance sheet shows a heavier tilt toward non-current assets, led by €4.52 billion in investment property and €3.15 billion in long-term investments in group companies and associates, underscoring its core strategy as a long-term property holder.

Current assets declined to €2.10 billion from €2.22 billion, mainly reflecting a drop in cash and cash equivalents to €1.06 billion from €1.39 billion, while short-term investments in group companies and associates increased to €958.5 million. The asset mix and modest growth in non-current holdings suggest continued capital deployment into the property portfolio and affiliated investments, with implications for liquidity management but reaffirming the company’s focus on real estate and related long-term positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:MRL) stock is a Buy with a EUR13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA stock, see the ES:MRL Stock Forecast page.