MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) AI Stock Analysis

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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA

(BME:MRL)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

€13.00

▲(2.12% Upside)

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA's strong financial recovery and robust technical momentum are the most significant contributors to the stock score. The company's valuation and the earnings call analysis suggest a balanced outlook with growth potential tempered by some risks. Despite valuation concerns, the dividend yield provides some appeal to investors.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)

Market Cap

$7.16B

Dividend Yield2.93%

Average Volume (3M)743.53K

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8

Beta (1Y)0.81

Revenue Growth7.19%

EPS Growth470.92%

CountryES

Employees282

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength55

IndustryREIT - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.14

Shares Outstanding563,724,900

10 Day Avg. Volume664,936

30 Day Avg. Volume743,527

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.04

Price to Book (P/B)0.69

Price to Sales (P/S)10.30

P/FCF Ratio17.42

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38

Enterprise Value/Revenue18.97

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.09

Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.78

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.98

Price Target Upside9.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) is a leading real estate investment company based in Spain, primarily engaged in the acquisition, development, and management of commercial real estate assets. The company's portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centers, logistics facilities, and hotels, predominantly located in the Iberian Peninsula. As a SOCIMI (Spanish Real Estate Investment Trust), MERLIN Properties benefits from a favorable tax regime, allowing it to focus on maximizing returns for its shareholders through strategic asset management and growth initiatives.

How the Company Makes MoneyMERLIN Properties generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its real estate assets. The company earns rental income from tenants occupying its office buildings, retail spaces, and logistics properties. In addition to rental income, MERLIN Properties may also engage in the sale of assets within its portfolio to realize capital gains. The company's earnings are further supported by its strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enable it to expand its asset base and enhance its market presence. MERLIN Properties' focus on high-quality, well-located assets allows it to maintain stable occupancy rates and achieve competitive rental yields, contributing significantly to its overall revenue.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong FFO growth and successful data center expansion, coupled with high occupancy rates and a stable dividend payout. However, challenges were noted in the logistics sector and a minor negative release spread in the office segment, alongside a decline in NTA. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic moves in data centers and overall solid performance contribute to a positive outlook.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong FFO Growth

FFO increased by 16.9%, almost offsetting the dilution from the capital increase, indicating strong operational performance.

Data Center Expansion

Acquisition of two sites in Madrid with 115 megawatts available, enabling the development of 78 megawatts of IT capacity.

High Occupancy Rates

Occupancy remained high at 96.7%, demonstrating strong demand and efficient management of properties.

Dividend Announcement

A final dividend of €0.40, with €0.22 to be paid on May 26, complementing the 2024 dividend, reflecting shareholder confidence.

Commercialization Achievements

Successful lease of 18 megawatts IT in Azure and pre-letting of 6 megawatts in Barcelona, strengthening market leadership in the Iberian Peninsula.

Negative Updates

Minor Negative Release Spread in Offices

A release spread of minus 1.3% in offices due to a single transaction, although the contract was extended until 2032.

Logistics Sector Challenges

Logistics rents lagged behind other segments at 1.8%, with noted departures such as Decathlon, although some spaces were re-let.

NTA Decline

NTA per share showed a decline of 4.8%, reflecting ongoing adjustments due to the capital increase.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025, MERLIN's performance showcased several key metrics. Gross rents increased by 2.7%, while the funds from operations (FFO) rose by nearly 17%, despite a 2.6% decline in FFO per share due to a capital increase. The net tangible assets (NTA) remained at minus 4.8%. The company also expanded its data center capabilities in Madrid, acquiring two sites with a potential IT capacity of 78 megawatts. The occupancy rate remained high at 96.7%, and a €37.4 million non-core asset sale was achieved at a double-digit premium. The release spread reflected a mixed performance across sectors, with a positive trend in logistics and shopping centers. Notably, the FFO for the quarter suggested a slight improvement over the annual guidance of 0.59, yet the company opted for prudency amid global economic uncertainties.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA exhibits a strong financial recovery with improved profitability and robust balance sheet metrics. While cash flow metrics show positive trends, there's potential for enhancing cash conversion. The company is on a solid financial footing with opportunities for further strengthening its cash flow management.

Income Statement

Positive

The company shows a strong recovery in profitability with a significant increase in Net Income from a loss in the previous year to a substantial profit, reflecting improved operational performance. Revenue growth is moderate, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is robust with a healthy equity base as evidenced by a strong equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, suggesting a well-managed leverage position. Return on Equity has improved significantly due to increased net income, signaling strong shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free Cash Flow has shown growth, indicating improved operational efficiency. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is strong, but the Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio could be better, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	519.81M	503.02M	464.78M	439.04M	382.83M	446.13M
Gross Profit	426.95M	508.64M	420.96M	389.94M	336.51M	400.68M
EBITDA	414.55M	430.52M	36.60M	153.42M	518.04M	193.29M
Net Income	303.18M	283.76M	-83.50M	263.09M	512.22M	56.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.60B	13.46B	12.07B	12.05B	14.27B	13.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.60B	1.56B	461.22M	427.45M	942.87M	259.62M
Total Debt	5.23B	4.92B	4.52B	4.25B	6.19B	5.68B
Total Liabilities	6.01B	5.96B	5.53B	5.20B	7.25B	6.78B
Stockholders Equity	7.59B	7.50B	6.54B	6.85B	7.03B	6.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.82M	297.30M	225.96M	220.44M	158.79M	132.09M
Operating Cash Flow	62.82M	316.78M	227.97M	222.16M	162.46M	134.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.69M	-294.38M	-274.75M	1.18B	-454.00K	-229.87M
Financing Cash Flow	126.92M	1.07B	78.56M	-1.70B	335.39M	93.21M

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price12.73

Price Trends

50DMA

11.99

Positive

100DMA

11.11

Positive

200DMA

10.58

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.23

Positive

RSI

57.41

Neutral

STOCH

36.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:MRL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.87, above the 50-day MA of 11.99, and above the 200-day MA of 10.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ES:MRL.

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRL	72 Outperform	$7.16B	10.79	9.06%	2.93%	7.19%	470.92%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$7.06B	13.54	-0.50%	6.96%	4.08%	-25.24%
0RID	―	€3.49B	7.27	8.84%	―	―	―
0HFP	―	€258.45M	12.55	10.13%	―	―	―
0RNU	―	€1.53B	22.91	5.74%	―	―	―
0KBV	―	€1.41B	12.59	3.83%	―	―	―
3AZ	―	€198.56M	―	-11.03%	―	―	―

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ES:MRL

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA

12.73

1.92

17.71%

GB:0RID

Inmobiliaria Colonial

5.64

0.26

4.83%

GB:0HFP

Inmobiliaria del Sur

13.90

5.84

72.46%

GB:0RNU

Neinor Homes

17.04

5.70

50.26%

GB:0KBV

Realia Business

0.96

-0.08

-7.69%

DE:3AZ

Arima Real Estate SOCIMI SA

7.00

-1.26

-15.25%

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Corporate Events

MERLIN Properties Mourns the Loss of Board Member Emilio Novela Berlín

May 17, 2025

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. announced the passing of board member Mr. Emilio Novela Berlín, highlighting his exceptional contributions and irreplaceable human values. The board expressed deep condolences to his family, acknowledging the significant impact of his loss on the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (ES:MRL) stock is a Buy with a EUR12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA stock, see the ES:MRL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025