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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
(BME:MRL)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
€16.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and manageable leverage, tempered by concerns about earnings quality and cash-flow coverage. Technical signals are mixed-to-soft, while valuation appears reasonable but supported less by income due to the low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Moderate leverage & improving ROE
Debt-to-equity near 0.63 and ROE ~9.7% indicate capital-structure repair and improved asset returns. Moderate leverage enhances financing flexibility, reduces immediate refinancing stress, and supports the firm's ability to fund selective acquisitions or capex while preserving long-term cash-flow stability.
Negative Factors
Earnings quality and revaluation reliance
Reported profits include significant non-operating or valuation gains, so net income outpaced revenue while operating cash flow covered only a modest share. Reliance on revaluations reduces predictability of cash available for distributions and complicates forecasting of recurring earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage & improving ROE
Debt-to-equity near 0.63 and ROE ~9.7% indicate capital-structure repair and improved asset returns. Moderate leverage enhances financing flexibility, reduces immediate refinancing stress, and supports the firm's ability to fund selective acquisitions or capex while preserving long-term cash-flow stability.
Read all positive factors
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€9.61B
Dividend Yield3.08%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth8.13%
EPS Growth143.51%
CountryES
Employees282
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.19
Shares Outstanding620,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,265,993
30 Day Avg. Volume1,027,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)12.72
P/FCF Ratio17.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€17.24Price Target Upside12.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)€603.11M
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, SA stands as a leading real estate firm traded on Spain's benchmark IBEX-35 stock index. Structured as a publicly listed SOCIMI, its core business involves the strategic acquisition, proactive management, operational over...
How the Company Makes Money
MERLIN Properties makes money mainly by owning commercial properties and generating recurring rental income from tenants. Its core revenue stream is lease rents (base rent) charged for offices, logistics/industrial facilities, and retail/shopping-...
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showed a strong operational and execution year driven by data centers and robust performance across traditional assets: FFO and like-for-like income growth, high occupancies, significant valuation uplift (largely from data centers), and record CapEx commitments underpin a positive growth runway. Offsetting factors include higher financial expenses from aggressive data center investment leading to flat 2026 EPS/DPS guidance, a rising net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, localized office softness in Barcelona, and timing/conditionality risks (EU Gigafactory, large logistics vacancy, and complex hyperscaler negotiations). Overall, achievements and growth catalysts notably outweigh the challenges, but execution and funding risks merit monitoring in the near term.Positive Updates
Strong FFO and GRI Growth
FFO of EUR 326.7M, up +5.1% year-on-year; GRI EUR 541.9M with +3.5% like-for-like growth, demonstrating solid operating cash generation across portfolio.
Negative Updates
Guidance and EPS/DPS Flat for 2026
Management expects relatively flat EPS and DPS for 2026 as top-line growth is absorbed by higher financial expenses while Data Center CapEx is deployed; decision to continue not capitalizing interest keeps reported earnings pressured.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong FFO and GRI Growth
FFO of EUR 326.7M, up +5.1% year-on-year; GRI EUR 541.9M with +3.5% like-for-like growth, demonstrating solid operating cash generation across portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a 2026 outlook of relatively flat EPS and DPS (FY25 EPS €0.58, +7% vs initial guidance; proposed FY25 dividend €0.44), noting FY25 FFO €326.7m (+5.1% y/y) and GRI €541.9m (+3.5% LFL); they expect modest top‑line upside (~€40m) to be absorbed by higher financing costs as CapEx stays high (2025 CapEx commitments €987m vs €836m prior) and plan to tap debt markets in H2‑26 while keeping LTV low at 28.9% (100% fixed) and net debt/EBITDA at c.9.0x; key operating metrics underpinning the guidance include offices LFL +3.5% with 94.2% occupancy and a 4.8% release spread, logistics €86m rents with 96.4% occupancy and a 5.8% release spread, shopping centers GRI €133m (+4.7% LFL) and 11.0% OCR, data centers with Phase‑1 64MW fully contracted (100% occ.), 112MW IT lit vs 45MW prior, Phase‑2 expanded to 254MW targeting ~14.4% gross yield on cost (stabilized Phase‑1 GRI €97m; Phase‑2 mid‑€300m+ stabilized GRI), a 4.7% GAV LFL uplift (data centers contributed ~€360m), NTA €15.36/share and TSR 10.2%.MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 520.59M | 549.83M | 503.02M | 504.70M | 439.04M | 382.83M |
| Gross Profit | 449.71M | 467.82M | 508.64M | 420.96M | 389.94M | 336.51M |
| EBITDA | 419.06M | 954.23M | 430.52M | 36.60M | 153.42M | 518.04M |
| Net Income | 663.86M | 786.13M | 283.76M | -83.50M | 263.09M | 512.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.37B | 14.27B | 13.46B | 12.07B | 12.05B | 14.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 849.19M | 1.22B | 1.56B | 461.22M | 427.45M | 942.87M |
| Total Debt | 4.44B | 5.06B | 4.92B | 4.52B | 4.25B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.49B | 6.19B | 5.96B | 5.53B | 5.20B | 7.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.89B | 8.07B | 7.50B | 6.54B | 6.85B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 405.03M | 297.30M | 225.96M | 220.44M | 158.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 415.60M | 316.78M | 227.97M | 222.16M | 162.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -576.31M | -294.38M | -274.75M | 1.18B | -454.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -177.02M | 1.07B | 78.56M | -1.70B | 335.39M |
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Technical Analysis
Positive
15.36
Price Trends
14.95
Positive
14.38
Positive
13.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Negative
59.00
Neutral
63.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:MRL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.18, above the 50-day MA of 14.95, and above the 200-day MA of 13.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:MRL.
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | €1.58B | 9.59 | 5.91% | 4.05% | 145.02% | 143.65% | |
67 Neutral | €3.55B | 8.99 | 6.51% | 5.64% | -16.99% | 5.03% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | €9.61B | 11.43 | 9.48% | 3.08% | 8.13% | 143.51% | |
56 Neutral | €1.66B | -175.96 | -0.63% | 17.21% | 10.29% | 258.02% | |
52 Neutral | €273.69M | -56.62 | -6.13% | ― | 127.69% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ES:MRL
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
15.54
4.71
43.50%
ES:COL
Inmobiliaria Colonial
5.73
-0.28
-4.66%
ES:RLIA
Realia Business
1.05
0.17
18.78%
ES:ARM
Arima Real Estate SOCIMI SA
11.20
1.32
13.37%
ES:MVC
Metrovacesa SA
10.98
2.20
25.06%
ES:YEPSA
Emperador Properties SOCIMI SA
10.40
4.77
84.86%
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Corporate Events
MERLIN Properties Sets Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
May 8, 2026
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. has announced that it will release its financial results for the first quarter of the 2026 financial year on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, after the close of trading. The timing underscores the company’s commitment ...
Merlin Properties Sets May Payout for Dividend and Reserve Distribution
Apr 30, 2026
Merlin Properties’ shareholders have approved an ordinary dividend of €9.34 million and an additional cash distribution from the share premium reserve, underscoring the company’s commitment to regular shareholder remuneration. Th...
MERLIN Properties shareholders back board and refresh governance structure
Apr 30, 2026
MERLIN Properties has announced that its General Shareholders’ Meeting, held on 29 April 2026, approved all resolutions proposed by the Board of Directors, with the exception of a re-election item rendered moot by the death of director Migue...
MERLIN Properties launches 10% capital increase to fund major data center expansion
Mar 26, 2026
MERLIN Properties has approved a capital increase of up to 56.3 million new shares, around 10% of its share capital, to fund Phase III of its 412 MW data center plan. The new shares, identical in class to existing stock, will be issued for cash wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.