Grifols (GRF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €5.42B
• Dividend Yield: 1.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 158.58%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 23,833
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 426,129,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,216,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,090,725
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €12.25
• Price Target Upside: 39.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €7.81B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: €9.00 ▲(2.74% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is primarily constrained by balance-sheet risk (high leverage and limited debt coverage) despite improving revenue, margins, and cash generation. Weak technical signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD) further weigh on the outlook, while a reasonable P/E and modest dividend provide only partial support.

Positive Factors

Integrated plasma-to-product model

Vertical integration from plasma collection through fractionation and distribution creates a durable competitive advantage: secures raw supply, captures value across the chain, and supports recurring revenues for immunoglobulins and albumin, reducing supply risk and improving long-term margin control.

Improved cash generation and positive FCF

Material positive free cash flow and improved operating cash flow underpin financial resilience: allows funding of capex, working capital and gradual deleveraging without relying solely on external financing, supporting sustainable operations and strategic investments over the medium term.

Steady revenue growth and margin recovery

Consistent mid-to-high single-digit top-line growth combined with a rebound in EBIT and net margins reflects durable demand for plasma-derived therapies and diagnostics recurring consumables, indicating improved operating leverage and stronger earnings quality versus the 2022–2023 trough.

Negative Factors

High absolute leverage

A very large debt stock and elevated debt-to-equity materially constrain financial flexibility: increases interest expense sensitivity, limits strategic optionality (M&A, buybacks), and raises default/refinancing risk in adverse conditions, leaving less room for cyclical stress.

Limited debt coverage and slow deleveraging

Operating cash flow covers only a small fraction of total debt and FCF growth weakened, implying deleveraging will be gradual. This raises refinancing risk and limits rapid capital-structure repair, constraining investment flexibility and increasing sensitivity to cash-flow shocks.

Margins still below pre-cycle peak; earnings volatile

Though margins recovered, they remain materially below prior peaks and earnings have been volatile. This reduces predictability of profits, leaving a smaller buffer against pricing, regulatory, or supply disruptions and complicates long-term planning and return consistency.

Grifols Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grifols, S.A. engages in the procurement, manufacture, preparation, and sale of therapeutic products, primarily hemoderivatives. The company operates through Bioscience, Hospital, Diagnostic, Bio Supplies, and Others divisions. The Bioscience division researches, develops, produces, and markets plasma-derived medicines and other innovative solutions to treat patients with chronic, rare, prevalent, and life-threatening diseases. It offers immunoglobulins, alpha-1 antitrypsin, albumin, clotting factors, and hyperimmune globulins. The Hospital division offers non-biological pharmaceutical products and medical supplies clinical nutrition, intravenous therapy, and medical devices. The Diagnostic division researches, develops, produces, and commercializes diagnostic products that span the healthcare continuum from prevention, screening, diagnosis, and prognosis to disease and treatment monitoring to serve professionals. The Bio Supplies division provides biological materials for life-science research, clinical trials, and for manufacturing pharmaceutical and diagnostic products. Its products and services are used by healthcare providers to diagnose and treat patients with hemophilia, immune deficiencies, infectious diseases, and other medical conditions. The company serves public and private customers; and wholesalers, distributors, group purchasing organizations, blood banks, hospitals and care institutions, and national health systems. Grifols, S.A. has a technology collaboration agreement with Mondragon. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

Grifols primarily makes money by collecting human plasma through its network of plasma donation centers and converting that plasma into plasma-derived medicines that are sold to hospitals, pharmacies, and healthcare systems. A key revenue stream comes from the sale of immunoglobulins and other plasma proteins (e.g., albumin and other therapies), where Grifols captures value across the chain: plasma sourcing/collection, fractionation/manufacturing, and commercial distribution. In addition, Grifols generates revenue from its Diagnostic business by selling analyzers/instruments along with recurring consumables (reagents, test kits, and related supplies) used for blood screening and clinical testing; this model typically includes ongoing reagent/consumable demand tied to installed instrument bases. The company’s earnings are influenced by factors such as plasma supply availability, manufacturing yields and capacity utilization, regulatory approvals and pricing/reimbursement conditions in end markets, and long-term supply agreements with healthcare providers and distributors. Specific partnership details not publicly specified here: null.

Grifols Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operational recovery is evident with steady revenue growth and improved profitability and cash flow versus the 2022–2023 trough. However, the balance sheet is a major constraint: leverage is elevated (debt-heavy structure), equity has declined, and cash flow coverage of total debt remains limited, increasing financial risk and reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2022–2025 (mid-to-high single-digit growth recently), showing resilient demand. Profitability has improved meaningfully versus 2023, with EBIT margin rebounding to ~16.6% in 2025 and net margin recovering to ~5.3% (from ~0.9% in 2023). However, margins remain well below the 2020 peak (net margin ~11.6%), and earnings have shown notable volatility over the period, which reduces confidence in consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: total debt remains very high (~€9.6B in 2025) and debt-to-equity is ~1.83x, indicating meaningful balance-sheet risk and reduced flexibility. Equity has declined versus 2022–2024, and returns on equity are modest (~7.6% in 2025) after very weak levels in 2023–2024. The main positive is that the company has maintained a sizable equity base relative to assets, but overall the capital structure is still debt-heavy.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved versus the 2022–2023 period: operating cash flow rose to ~€1.05B in 2025 and free cash flow is solidly positive (~€0.78B). Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings (about 0.75x in 2025), supporting earnings quality. Offsetting this, free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025, and operating cash flow remains low relative to total debt (coverage ~0.52x), highlighting that deleveraging capacity may be gradual.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.52B	7.21B	6.59B	6.06B	4.93B
Gross Profit	2.86B	2.85B	2.49B	2.23B	1.96B
EBITDA	1.25B	1.61B	1.18B	1.21B	944.03M
Net Income	401.89M	156.92M	59.31M	208.28M	265.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.71B	21.41B	21.44B	21.53B	19.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	825.49M	1.00B	645.72M	591.24M	2.68B
Total Debt	8.74B	10.09B	10.12B	9.75B	9.32B
Total Liabilities	12.11B	12.80B	13.47B	13.08B	11.09B
Stockholders Equity	5.27B	5.88B	5.83B	6.13B	6.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	782.00M	669.63M	-87.14M	-386.43M	281.89M
Operating Cash Flow	1.05B	902.17M	208.28M	-10.87M	596.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-579.00M	886.67M	-397.64M	-1.98B	-29.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-529.00M	-1.36B	186.04M	-173.49M	1.47B

Grifols Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:GRF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.94, below the 50-day MA of 10.56, and below the 200-day MA of 11.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.91 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:GRF.

Grifols Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ROVI	72 Outperform	€3.94B	23.13	23.03%	1.50%	-9.39%	-25.92%
PHM	71 Outperform	€1.55B	17.19	35.36%	1.04%	7.35%	5375.64%
ALM	59 Neutral	€2.44B	35.12	3.96%	1.22%	13.32%	―
GRF	53 Neutral	€5.42B	18.75	7.56%	1.37%	7.31%	158.58%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
FAE	51 Neutral	€1.39B	20.17	18.13%	3.51%	11.04%	8.29%
RJF	46 Neutral	€202.54M	41.66	2.03%	1.91%	-1.19%	-54.66%