Evolution Petroleum (EPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $160.67M
• Dividend Yield: 13.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 412.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -2.23%
• EPS Growth: -104.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 35,003,845
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 518,041
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 412,873
• PEG Ratio: -1.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.02
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: -1.96% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $83.59M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(8.93% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong revenue rebound and healthy operating cash flow, but very thin net margins and volatile free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with positive momentum, while valuation is a blend of an attractive dividend yield and a negative P/E that clouds earnings-based value. The earnings call reinforced improving operating trends and disciplined capital plans, tempered by execution and leverage/cash-buffer risks.

Positive Factors

Minerals & royalty platform momentum

The ramp in SCOOP/STACK minerals plus Haynesville-Bossier royalty additions offer capital-light, high-margin cash flow. Management expects payback under three years, supporting durable dividend coverage and lower capital intensity versus working-interest drilling, improving portfolio resilience.

Conservative balance sheet and liquidity

Reportedly modest leverage and strong equity backing provide financial flexibility to absorb commodity volatility, opportunistically pursue accretive A&D, and sustain distributions. A prudent balance sheet supports multi‑month resilience and options for opportunistic capital actions.

Operating efficiency driving EBITDA

Double-digit LOE reductions and field-level improvements drove a 41% EBITDA lift, demonstrating durable operational levers (pump conversions, workovers, cost controls). Sustained unit-cost gains increase cash generation potential across cycles and improve margin resilience.

Negative Factors

Very thin net margins

A large gap between strong EBITDA margins and near-zero net margins signals poor conversion to the bottom line, driven by deductions, interest, timing items, or taxes. This undermines durable earnings quality and leaves limited buffer to sustain cash payouts when revenues soften.

Leverage above target & limited cash cushion

Reported borrowings and modest cash reduce flexibility versus operating volatility. With liquidity tightened after dividends and a stated long‑term net‑debt target above current levels, the company may need external funding for shocks or A&D, raising dilution or refinancing risk.

Dependency on third‑party operators

A non‑operated business model limits control over uptime, capex timing and cost execution. Operator outages (e.g., Delhi CO2 compressor downtime) and transition-related issues can materially disrupt production and cash flow, raising persistent execution and timing risk to fundamentals.

Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Petroleum makes money primarily by selling its share of hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs) produced from the properties in which it holds working interests and/or royalty interests. Because many of its interests are non-operated, third-party operators typically manage drilling, completion, production operations, and marketing; Evolution then receives revenue based on its ownership share of production volumes and realized commodity prices, net of applicable deductions. Key revenue streams include: (1) Oil, natural gas, and NGL sales: Revenue is driven by production volumes attributable to Evolution’s interests and prevailing market prices (including any pricing differentials or contractual pricing terms). (2) Royalty income (where applicable): For royalty interests, Evolution generally receives a percentage of production or proceeds without bearing most operating or capital costs, making cash flow more directly tied to production volumes and commodity prices. (3) Non-operated working interest cash flows: For working interests, Evolution bears its proportionate share of operating expenses and capital expenditures billed by operators (joint interest billings), so net earnings depend on both revenue and cost control by the operators. Significant factors influencing earnings include commodity price volatility, production performance/decline rates, the timing and success of operator-led development programs (drilling, recompletions, workovers, enhanced recovery projects), operating and transportation/processing deductions, and the terms and effectiveness of any risk-management/hedging activities (if used). Partnerships that matter economically are primarily the relationships with the third-party operators and marketers/midstream counterparties that operate and market production from the underlying assets; Evolution’s results are therefore materially affected by operator execution, maintenance of production, and marketing/transport arrangements tied to those properties.

Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue rebounded strongly TTM and operating cash flow is healthy, supported by a generally conservative balance sheet on the latest TTM view. Offsetting this, net profitability is extremely thin and free cash flow has been volatile/weak, reflecting cyclical earnings quality and uneven cash conversion.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+47%), and profitability is positive, but earnings quality is pressured: net margin is extremely thin (~0.3%) despite a solid EBITDA margin (~29.9%), indicating weaker conversion of operating strength into bottom-line profit. Versus prior peak years (2022–2023), margins and net income are materially lower, highlighting cyclical/commodity sensitivity and reduced profitability versus the company’s recent highs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears modest overall with strong equity backing (TTM shows very low debt and a debt-to-equity near zero), which supports financial flexibility. That said, annual filings show leverage can move meaningfully (debt-to-equity around ~0.49–0.52 in 2024–2025 annual), and returns on equity have fallen sharply from very strong levels in 2022–2023 to low levels recently, suggesting weaker efficiency and profitability on the current capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM operating cash flow is healthy (~$31M) and covers reported earnings well (operating cash flow is ~1.86x net income). However, free cash flow has been volatile across periods (negative in 2022 and 2024 annual, positive in 2023 and 2025 annual), and TTM free cash flow conversion is weak/negative versus net income, pointing to higher capital needs or working-capital swings that can reduce consistency.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.64M	85.84M	85.88M	128.51M	108.93M	32.70M
Gross Profit	19.53M	14.51M	19.00M	55.83M	52.75M	11.16M
EBITDA	30.62M	26.83M	27.02M	60.02M	49.77M	-16.15M
Net Income	3.12M	1.47M	4.08M	35.22M	32.63M	-16.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	169.26M	160.25M	162.88M	132.65M	148.05M	77.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.76M	2.51M	6.45M	11.03M	8.28M	5.28M
Total Debt	386.00K	37.57M	39.66M	184.00K	21.28M	4.08M
Total Liabilities	101.72M	88.44M	81.75M	40.56M	72.53M	23.37M
Stockholders Equity	67.54M	71.81M	81.13M	92.09M	75.51M	54.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.14M	11.41M	-26.90M	44.28M	-2.41M	-14.04M
Operating Cash Flow	30.95M	33.05M	22.73M	51.27M	52.46M	4.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.12M	-21.64M	-49.63M	-6.99M	-54.87M	-18.77M
Financing Cash Flow	262.00K	-15.35M	22.32M	-41.53M	5.42M	-349.00K

Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.42, above the 50-day MA of 3.97, and above the 200-day MA of 4.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EPM.

Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	81 Outperform	$208.51M	2.50	10.70%	―	-9.98%	-19.48%
AMPY	76 Outperform	$259.14M	4.20	10.56%	―	-9.46%	-144.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
EPM	65 Neutral	$160.67M	28.10	4.46%	13.52%	-2.23%	-104.00%
GTE	52 Neutral	$297.57M	-0.78	-56.05%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
EP	44 Neutral	$112.37M	-1.44	-177.26%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events

Evolution Petroleum Establishes At-The-Market Equity Offering Program

On February 11, 2026, Evolution Petroleum entered into a Sales Agreement with Roth Capital Partners as lead agent, along with Northland Securities and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, to offer and sell from time to time up to $30 million of its common stock in at-the-market transactions. The arrangement, conducted under an effective shelf registration, allows the company to tap equity markets opportunistically without any obligation to issue shares, while compensating the lead agent with a 3% commission and covering specified expenses, providing flexible access to capital that could support future operational or strategic needs and potentially affect existing shareholders through dilution if fully utilized.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Petroleum posts profit, boosts EBITDA and dividend

On February 10, 2026, Evolution Petroleum reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a swing to net income of $1.1 million on revenues of $20.7 million, aided by a 6% production increase to 7,380 BOEPD, stronger realized natural gas prices, and lower lease operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA rose 41% year over year to $8.0 million with margins improving to 39%, and the board approved the company’s 15th consecutive $0.12 per share dividend for the fiscal third quarter, payable March 31, 2026, marking its 50th straight quarterly cash payout.

Operationally, the company returned about $4.2 million to shareholders via dividends in the quarter, advanced development across its SCOOP/STACK interests, and completed pump conversions in the Chaveroo field that lifted efficiency and stabilized output. In late December 2025 and January 2026, Evolution closed four mineral and royalty acquisitions in the Haynesville-Bossier Shale for roughly $4.5 million, adding producing royalty wells, undeveloped locations, and net proved reserves that management expects will pay back in under three years and enhance long-term cash flow, dividend coverage, and portfolio diversification.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.