Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Equifax (EFX)
NYSE:EFX
Top Page
Equifax
(NYSE:EFX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$196.00
â–²(1.77% Upside)
The score is supported by improving financial performance (stronger cash flow and higher profitability) and upbeat FY2026 guidance with strong cash conversion expectations. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (price well below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E ~32.9) alongside meaningful leverage.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Equifax's material FCF recovery (to ~$1.13B) and operating cash flow ramp provide durable financial flexibility for product investment, debt service, buybacks, and M&A. Strong cash conversion reduces execution risk and supports sustained capital returns and strategic reinvestment over the medium term.
AI-driven product lift and patents
Adoption of efx.ai, substantial AI patenting, and broad internal AI usage indicate durable competitive differentiation. A 30% model lift and platform investments (Angetic, Ignite) should improve product efficacy, lower costs, and accelerate new-product monetization over multiple years.
Data scale and Workforce Solutions strength
High-margin Workforce Solutions and extensive Twin record scale provide sticky, recurring revenue and cross-sell opportunities. Strong EWS unit economics and expanding data assets underpin long-term resilience and product moat in verification, identity, and analytics markets.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure (≈$5.1B) limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk during macro stress. For a services/data business, meaningful leverage constrains free-cash deployment and increases sensitivity to margin or cash-flow shocks over the medium term.
FICO mortgage pass-through margin distortion
Growing zero-margin FICO pass-throughs inflate revenue while pressuring reported margins and complicating comparability. This structural reporting distortion can obscure core operating trends, impede margin expansion on paper, and complicate investor assessment until pass-through exposure declines or reporting normalization occurs.
Policy and product-adoption uncertainty
Uncertainty over mortgage score policy and reseller model adoption creates durable upside/downside to mortgage-related revenues and margins. Delayed regulatory or industry shifts could keep product adoption and pricing constrained, producing persistent conservatism in guidance and slower margin realization.
Equifax (EFX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.59B
Dividend Yield0.86%
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.2
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth6.35%
EPS Growth16.91%
CountryUS
Employees15,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConsulting Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.09
Shares Outstanding122,394,035
10 Day Avg. Volume3,109,118
30 Day Avg. Volume2,110,981
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.12
Price to Book (P/B)5.81
Price to Sales (P/S)4.40
P/FCF Ratio23.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$228.85Price Target Upside18.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Equifax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEquifax Inc. provides information solutions and human resources business process automation outsourcing services for businesses, governments, and consumers. The company operates through three segments: Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions (USIS), and International. The Workforce Solutions segment offers employment, income, criminal history, and social security number verification services, as well as payroll-based transaction, employment tax management, and identity theft protection products. The USIS segment provides consumer and commercial information services, such as credit information and credit scoring, credit modeling and portfolio analytics, locate, fraud detection and prevention, identity verification, and other consulting; mortgage services; financial marketing services; identity management services; credit monitoring products; and online information, decisioning technology solutions, as well as portfolio management, mortgage reporting, and consumer credit information services. The International segment offers information service products, which include consumer and commercial services, such as credit and financial information, and credit scoring and modeling; and credit and other marketing products and services, as well as offers information, technology, and other services to support debt collections and recovery management. The company serves customers in financial services, mortgage, employers, consumer, commercial, telecommunication, retail, automotive, utility, brokerage, healthcare, and insurance industries, as well as state, federal, and local governments. It operates in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, the United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Brazil, the Republic of Ireland, Russia, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyEquifax generates revenue primarily through its services related to credit reporting and analytics. The company's revenue model comprises several key streams: credit reporting services for businesses, which provide essential data for risk assessments in lending; consumer services like credit monitoring and identity theft protection; and workforce solutions that offer background checks and employment verification services. Additionally, Equifax has developed partnerships with financial institutions and other businesses, enhancing its data offerings and analytical capabilities. The company also benefits from its extensive consumer database, which allows it to offer insights and analytics that help organizations make informed decisions.
Equifax Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Workforce Solutions Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes revenue from workforce solutions, highlighting growth in employment verification and HR services, which can indicate strong demand from employers and a robust labor market.
Analyzes revenue from workforce solutions, highlighting growth in employment verification and HR services, which can indicate strong demand from employers and a robust labor market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEquifax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution, product innovation (notably AI and Twin data), robust free cash flow and capital returns, and clear 2026 guidance while transparently addressing distortions from FICO mortgage pass-throughs and pockets of market weakness (U.S. mortgage, hiring, and certain international markets). Management positioned results ex-FICO to clarify underlying operating performance and outlined multiple growth levers (EWS government opportunities, Twin Indicator adoption, efx.ai-enabled products). The positives (record cash conversion, high vitality, AI-driven lift, solid unit-level growth and margins, shareholder returns) materially outweigh the headwinds (mortgage market weakness, FICO pass-through margin distortion, international softness, one-time settlement).Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Results
Full-year 2025 revenue of $6.075 billion, adjusted EPS of $7.65, and strong free cash flow (~$1.1B–$1.13B reported across slides) with record cash conversion of ~120% (well above the 95% long-term framework).
Robust Q4 Performance
Q4 2025 revenue of $1.551 billion, up 9% year-over-year and $30 million above the midpoint of October guidance; Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.09 (above guidance midpoint); Q4 EBITDA $508 million with 32.8% margin.
Record New-Product Momentum (Vitality)
Equifax delivered a record 15% new-product vitality for 2025 (17% in Q4) equating to roughly $900 million of NPI revenue for the year and sustained double-digit NPI rollout momentum expected to continue in 2026.
AI and Cloud Adoption Driving Product and Operational Gains
efx.ai-powered models (all new models in 2025) delivered ~30% lift vs legacy models; over 400 AI patents (40 added in 2025); ~90% of team using Google Gemini; Angetic AI and Ignite platforms accelerating product development and expected operational cost savings (~$75M annual run-rate targeted over next 3 years).
Workforce Solutions (EWS) Outperformance
EWS grew ~6% for the year with Q4 growth at 9%; verification services +8% for the year and >10% in Q4; EWS EBITDA margins ~51% (51.5% annual noted; 51.3% in Q4); Twin active records >200 million (up 11%) and >800 million total records — significant data scale and record additions (~20M records added in 2025).
USIS Strength, Especially in Mortgage
USIS delivered ~10% revenue growth for the year with expanded margins (+70 bps to ~35.2%); Q4 USIS revenue +12% with mortgage revenue up ~33% in Q4 (driven by pricing and product innovations, including Twin Indicator and FICO price effects).
Strong Capital Return & Balance Sheet Execution
Returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 (repurchases ~$927M and dividends $233M), repurchased >4 million shares (including $500M / 2.3M shares in Q4); guidance for 2026 free cash flow >$1.0B and at least 100% cash conversion with ~$1.5B capital capacity for M&A and buybacks.
Clear 2026 Financial Guidance with Ex-FICO Transparency
2026 midpoint guidance: revenue +10.6% reported (+10% constant currency); ex-FICO revenue growth ~7% (within long-term 7%-10% framework); EBITDA ~$2.12B (up ~10%); EPS midpoint $8.50 (+11% vs 2025); management committed to reporting with and without FICO mortgage pass-through effects for clarity.
Negative Updates
Continued Weak U.S. Mortgage and Hiring Markets
2025 U.S. mortgage market down ~7% and U.S. hiring market down ~2%, with mortgage market exerting roughly a 100-basis-point negative impact on Equifax 2025 revenue growth; management expects U.S. mortgage to be down low single digits in 2026 absent a refinance-driven recovery.
FICO Mortgage Price Increases Compress Reported Margins
FICO mortgage royalties are a zero-profit pass-through that represented ~3% of revenue in 2025 and are expected to be ~6% in 2026, reducing reported EBITDA margins (management estimates ~100+ bps impact in 2025 and ~200+ bps in 2026 if included); company is presenting ex-FICO metrics to isolate underlying performance.
International End-Market Weakness in Canada and UK
International performance slightly below expectations in Q4 and 2026 guidance assumes weaker growth in Canada and the U.K.; Q4 international constant-currency growth ~5% (below prior expectations) with debt-management weaknesses in Europe and Canada weighing on results.
One-Time Charge and Near-Term Corporate Expense Pressure
Equifax incurred a $30 million charge in Q4 related to a settlement on inquiry-dispute claims (expected to be reimbursed by insurers when received); Q4 margins were slightly below guidance due to higher incentive compensation (expected to normalize in Q1 2026).
Uncertainty Around VantageScore Conversion and FICO Direct Model
Timing of FHFA acceptance of VantageScore for agency mortgage originations remains uncertain (guidance conservatively assumes no conversion in 2026); similarly, adoption of the FICO 'direct' model by tri-merge resellers is uncertain — both create near-term guidance conservatism/uncertainty (but potential upside if moves occur).
Company Guidance
Equifax guided FY2026 (midpoint) to total revenue up ~10.6% (10.0% constant currency, roughly $6.7B), EPS of $8.50 (≈+11%), EBITDA of about $2.122B (≈+10% YoY) and free cash flow >$1.0B with cash conversion of at least 100%; mortgage is expected to represent >20% of revenue at the midpoint. Management emphasized the material impact of FICO mortgage royalties (≈3% of revenue in 2025, ~6% in 2026 and >2x the 2025 level in the guide): reported EBITDA margins would be ~30 bps lower at the midpoint due to zero‑margin FICO pass‑throughs, while ex‑FICO EBITDA margins are expected to expand ~75 bps and ex‑FICO revenue growth at the midpoint is ~7%. Business‑unit guidance includes EWS revenue up high‑single digits with EBITDA margins of 51.2–51.7%, USIS revenue up mid‑teens with EBITDA margins of 32.4–32.9% (ex‑FICO USIS revenue mid‑single digits and margins 39.6–40.1%), and international constant‑currency revenue up mid‑single digits with EBITDA margins of 28.6–29.1%. Q1 2026 guidance is revenue $1.597–1.627B (midpoint +11.8% reported, +10.6% constant), EPS $1.63–1.73, EBITDA $444–459M (midpoint ≈+7%) and EBITDA margin ≈28% (ex‑FICO Q1 revenue +7–9% and margins 29.9–30.3%).Equifax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid: revenue expanded steadily through 2025, net margin improved to ~18.5%, and operating/free cash flow stepped up meaningfully in 2025. The main constraint is a debt-heavy capital structure (total debt ~ $5.1B, historically ~1.0–1.5x debt-to-equity) and some uneven operating profitability (EBITDA margin down in 2025 vs. 2023–2024).Income Statement
Revenue shows steady expansion from $4.13B (2020) to $6.07B (2025), with consistent year-over-year growth in the annual periods. Profitability is solid: net margin improved to ~18.5% in 2025 (vs. ~10–15% in 2020–2024), and EBITDA dollars have trended up (to ~$1.83B in 2025). Offsetting this, operating profitability looks somewhat uneven: EBITDA margin is lower in 2025 (~23.1%) versus ~30% in 2023–2024, suggesting higher costs or mix/one-time items impacting operating leverage.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains meaningful with total debt around $5.1B in 2025 and debt running roughly in line with equity historically (debt-to-equity ~1.0–1.5x in 2020–2024). Equity has grown over time (to ~$4.60B in 2025 from ~$3.17B in 2020), which supports balance sheet resilience, but the capital structure is still debt-heavy for a services-style business. Returns on equity were healthy in 2020–2024 (roughly low-teens to ~21%), though 2025 return metrics are not provided.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation strengthened materially: operating cash flow rose to ~$1.62B in 2025 from ~$1.32B in 2024 and ~$0.76B in 2022. Free cash flow also improved to ~$1.13B in 2025 (up from ~$0.81B in 2024 and ~$0.13B in 2022), indicating a strong rebound after a weak 2022. A watch item is that free cash flow has generally been below net income (about ~70% in 2025 and ~61% in 2024), implying not all earnings translate into cash, though the direction has improved.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.07B | 5.68B | 5.27B | 5.12B | 4.92B |
| Gross Profit | 2.71B | 3.16B | 2.93B | 2.94B | 2.94B |
| EBITDA | 1.83B | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.68B | 1.58B |
| Net Income | 660.30M | 604.10M | 545.30M | 696.20M | 744.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.86B | 11.76B | 12.28B | 11.55B | 11.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 180.80M | 169.90M | 216.80M | 285.20M | 224.70M |
| Total Debt | 5.09B | 5.01B | 5.71B | 5.79B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.13B | 6.84B | 7.59B | 7.57B | 7.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.60B | 4.80B | 4.53B | 3.96B | 3.58B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.13B | 813.00M | 515.50M | 132.60M | 865.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62B | 1.32B | 1.12B | 757.10M | 1.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -554.30M | -511.50M | -878.20M | -959.50M | -3.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -846.40M | -306.20M | 273.70M | 617.70M |
Equifax Technical Analysis
Negative
192.59
Price Trends
210.23
Negative
215.99
Negative
235.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.51
Negative
42.77
Neutral
64.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EFX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 192.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.86, below the 50-day MA of 210.23, and below the 200-day MA of 235.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EFX.
Equifax Risk Analysis
Equifax disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Equifax reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Equifax Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
EFX
Equifax
192.59
-46.73
-19.53%
VRSK
Verisk Analytics
184.07
-106.65
-36.69%
TRU
TransUnion
75.72
-18.23
-19.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.