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Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A (EE)
NYSE:EE
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:EE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(16.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by constructive fundamentals and a strong earnings-call outlook (higher 2026 EBITDA guidance, solid liquidity/low leverage, and new shareholder returns). Offsetting this are a rich valuation (high P/E and low yield) and technically stretched momentum, alongside historically volatile revenue and cash-flow patterns.
Positive Factors
Contracted FSRU cash flows / Jamaica integration
The successful Jamaica acquisition and integration converted new contracted capacity into stable, contracted cash flows. Long-term contracts reduce spot exposure, improving revenue visibility and supporting durable cash generation and debt servicing across the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Operational reliability
Very high fleet reliability (>99.9%) materially reduces downtime, penalties and margin volatility on contract revenues. Consistent uptime strengthens counterparties’ confidence, preserves service fees and underpins predictable operating cash flows and margin sustainability over multiple years.
Strong liquidity and raised EBITDA guidance
Low trailing leverage, ample liquidity and a full-year EBITDA uplift guide provide durable financial flexibility. This combination supports funding of committed growth, maintenance dry docks and shareholder returns while limiting refinancing pressure and preserving investment-grade-like optionality.
Negative Factors
Revenue and cashflow volatility
Historical swings in revenue, margins and free cash flow undermine predictability. Step-changes tied to specific projects or one-off supply uplifts may not persist, complicating forecasting of recurring EBITDA and free cash flow conversion for covenant planning and capital allocation decisions.
Front‑loaded committed capex and timing risk
Concentrated near-term capex and a large Q2 vessel payment concentrate execution and liquidity risk. Even with revolver access, timing slips, cost overruns or slower ramp-up could push leverage higher or force trade-offs between growth spending and shareholder returns over the coming quarters.
Iraq terminal cost escalation
Higher terminal capex reduces cushion in project economics and raises funding need. Cost escalation can compress the projected ~5x EBITDA multiple and elevate execution risk; sustained overruns or delays would impair returns and could strain the company's medium‑term cash planning.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A (EE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.60B
Dividend Yield0.99%
Average Volume (3M)445.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth45.09%
EPS Growth50.54%
CountryUS
Employees919
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding32,009,583
10 Day Avg. Volume558,085
30 Day Avg. Volume445,892
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio13.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.68
P/FCF Ratio3.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.43Price Target Upside7.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.61B
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExcelerate Energy, Inc. provides flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) solutions worldwide. The company offers floating regasification services, including floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), infrastructure development, and LNG and natural gas supply, procurement, and distribution services; LNG terminal services; natural gas supply to-power projects; and a suite of smaller-scale gas distribution solutions. It also leases an LNG terminal in Bahia, Brazil. Excelerate Energy, LLC acts as general partner of the company. Excelerate Energy, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas. Excelerate Energy, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Excelerate Energy Holdings, LLC.
How the Company Makes MoneyExcelerate Energy generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts for the leasing and operation of its FSRUs, which are utilized for regasification services in various markets. The company also earns income from the sale of LNG and related services, including the transportation of natural gas. Key revenue streams include fees from clients for the use of its floating LNG infrastructure, as well as profit-sharing arrangements from joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies. Additionally, Excelerate Energy may benefit from market fluctuations in LNG prices and demand, which can contribute to its overall earnings.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook: Excelerate reported record 2025 results with adjusted EBITDA up ~30% and strong operational reliability (>99.9%), provided materially higher 2026 EBITDA guidance (midpoint ~18% above 2025), completed the Jamaica integration successfully and advanced the strategic Iraq project with attractive ~5x economics. The company also maintains strong liquidity, low leverage (1.6x), and initiated shareholder returns (dividend and $75M buyback authorization). Key negatives are a higher-than-expected Iraq capex estimate, elevated near-term maintenance and growth capital (first-half weighted with a ~$220M vessel payment), modest hurricane-related Q4 impacts, and some remaining execution/commercial uncertainties around the FSRU conversion and redeployments. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong YoY Growth
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $449 million (record), up about $100 million or ~30% year-over-year versus prior year.
Material 2026 EBITDA Guidance Upside
Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $515 million to $545 million (midpoint $530M), implying an increase of over $80 million (~18% vs. 2025). Guidance driven by contracted FSRU portfolio, full-year Jamaica contribution, partial Iraq contribution and incremental supply uplifts.
Outstanding Operational Reliability
Enterprise-wide reliability exceeded 99.9% for 2025 — the strongest operational performance to date, supporting stable and predictable cash flows.
Successful Jamaica Acquisition and Integration
Jamaica LNG-to-power platform acquisition closed May 2025 and fully integrated in Q4 2025; delivered stable contracted cash flows and demonstrated resilience during Hurricane Melissa with minimal operational and financial impacts.
Iraq Project Progress and Economics
Hull 3407 newbuild completed sea trials and is advancing through final commissioning with delivery in early Q2 2026; integrated Iraq terminal expected to commence operations in Q3 2026. Total terminal capex now estimated at $520M–$550M (inclusive of FSRU); expected EBITDA build multiple of ~5x at minimum contracted offtake (250 mmscfd) with upside to 500 mmscfd.
Strong Balance Sheet, Liquidity and Low Leverage
As of 12/31/2025 total debt (including finance leases) $1.3 billion, cash & equivalents $538 million, full $500 million revolver capacity available; net debt $730 million and trailing net leverage ~1.6x.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation Actions
Board approved quarterly dividend $0.08 per share ($0.32 annualized) with target low double-digit annual dividend growth starting 2026; $75 million share repurchase program authorized in December 2025.
Committed Capital Positioned for Growth
2026 committed growth capital guidance of $370 million–$400 million (includes ~$220 million remaining for Hull 3407 and $140M–$170M for the Iraq terminal) and maintenance CapEx guidance of $100M–$110M to support reliability and dry docks.
Incremental Supply & Contract Uplifts
Back-to-back QatarEnergy and Petrobangla supply agreements expected to provide incremental EBITDA uplift (Petrobangla contribution noted ~ $15M for two years then ~$18M thereafter) and anticipated improved economics from redeployment/renegotiation of Express FSRU starting 2027.
Negative Updates
Iraq Terminal Capital Cost Increase
Total estimated capital for the Iraq terminal revised upward to $520M–$550M (inclusive of FSRU) due to jetty structural reinforcement and scope refinements; all-in cost of the FSRU remains roughly $370M with ~$220M remaining payment due in Q2 2026.
Fourth Quarter Sequential Softness
Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $113 million and adjusted net income of $40 million — sequentially lower than Q3 primarily due to a full Atlantic Basin cargo in Q3 vs partial delivery in Q4, higher business development expenses and modestly lower LNG gas & power margins in Jamaica after Hurricane Melissa.
Short-Term Rise in Maintenance CapEx
Maintenance CapEx expected to increase from $57M (FY2025) to $100M–$110M in 2026, driven largely by the timing of multiple vessel dry docks (Exquisite in Q2, Express in Q4 and Explorer dry dock activity spilling into 2026) — results in higher near-term cash outflows.
Hurricane Melissa Impact
Hurricane Melissa caused an estimated ~$6 million EBITDA impact in Q4 2025, including ~$2 million in SG&A (about $1 million CSR spend and other support costs) and modest margin effects in Jamaica.
Higher Interest Expense
Adjusted net income growth was partly offset by higher interest expense related to the company’s 2030 notes (incremental financing cost pressure noted).
Near-Term Cash Concentration and Execution Risk
Committed growth capital is front-loaded (first-half weighted), including ~$220M vessel payment and $140M–$170M Iraq spend, concentrating execution and liquidity needs in early 2026 and exposing near-term timing/implementation risk.
Uncertainty Around FSRU Conversion and Redeployments
FSRU conversion plans targeted for early 2028 remain under negotiation and are not yet included in committed growth capital; Express FSRU redeployment expected to drive 2027 uplift but specifics and counterparties remain under discussion.
Company Guidance
Excelerate guided full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $515–$545 million (midpoint >$80M above 2025’s record $449M, which was up ~30% year‑over‑year), backed by a full year of Jamaica, a partial year of Iraq and incremental uplift from QatarEnergy/Petrobangla supply deals; 2026 maintenance CapEx is forecast at $100–$110M (dry docks: Exquisite Q2, Explorer Q1, Express Q4) and committed growth capital $370–$400M (including roughly $220M remaining for newbuild Hull 3407, $140–$170M for the Iraq integrated terminal and $10M other). Management said Hull 3407’s all‑in vessel cost is roughly $370M with ~$220M due in Q2, the Iraq terminal all‑in CapEx is now expected to be $520–$550M (inclusive of the FSRU) and the project is on track to start operations in Q3 2026 with an expected ~5x EBITDA build multiple at a minimum 250 MMscf/d (scalable to 500 MMscf/d). Balance sheet metrics as of 12/31/25: total debt (incl. leases) $1.3B, cash $538M, full $500M revolver available, net debt $730M and trailing net leverage 1.6x; the Board approved a $0.08 quarterly dividend ($0.32 annualized) payable 3/26/26, targets low‑double‑digit annual dividend growth through 2028, and authorized a $75M share repurchase program; operational reliability exceeded 99.9% in 2025.Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Recent profitability and cash generation look stronger (very strong TTM net margin and positive TTM free cash flow) and the latest leverage snapshot appears low, but results show meaningful volatility in revenue, margins, and free cash flow across annual periods, raising sustainability/comparability risk.Income Statement
Profitability improved materially over time, with net margin rising from ~1.1% (2022) to ~3.9% (2024) and a very strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin of ~18.1%. However, revenue has been volatile, including declines in 2023 and 2024, and the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue level/growth appears extreme versus prior years, suggesting a potential one-off step-change or comparability issue. Margins have also been inconsistent historically (gross and operating profitability swing meaningfully year to year).58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot, with debt-to-equity at ~0.16 and equity representing a large capital base, supporting a solid ~10.0% return on equity. That said, the prior annual periods show materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.9–1.5 from 2020–2024), indicating the balance sheet profile has shifted significantly. Overall asset base is stable, but the historical debt load relative to equity remains a key risk to monitor if the recent improvement is not durable.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally supportive: operating cash flow covers accounting earnings in every period provided (coverage ~0.27–1.49), and free cash flow is positive in most years, including strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow. The main weakness is volatility—free cash flow turned negative in 2023 and conversion of earnings into free cash flow is only moderate in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period (~0.65 of net income), implying ongoing capital needs and/or working-capital swings can pressure cash consistency.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.23B | 851.44M | 1.16B | 2.47B | 888.55M |
| Gross Profit | 395.41M | 408.08M | 412.40M | 259.68M | 200.41M |
| EBITDA | 418.54M | 315.79M | 326.70M | 296.87M | 271.57M |
| Net Income | 39.20M | 32.88M | 30.41M | 26.27M | 41.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.13B | 2.88B | 2.86B | 2.87B | 2.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 538.23M | 580.99M | 572.32M | 530.00M | 85.01M |
| Total Debt | 366.68M | 697.38M | 769.64M | 715.88M | 1.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.90B | 994.71M | 1.05B | 1.17B | 1.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 682.48M | 487.99M | 505.45M | 477.35M | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 277.02M | 131.18M | -80.85M | 105.82M | 105.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 440.01M | 244.44M | 231.88M | 225.09M | 141.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -113.26M | -308.63M | -119.27M | -36.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 744.34M | -149.02M | 111.36M | 341.18M | -124.10M |
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
40.36
Price Trends
34.86
Positive
30.95
Positive
28.64
Positive
Market Momentum
1.80
Positive
56.10
Neutral
71.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.19, above the 50-day MA of 34.86, and above the 200-day MA of 28.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EE.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $4.60B | 21.38 | 6.70% | 0.99% | 45.09% | 50.54% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $562.10M | -4.52 | -111.44% | ― | -35.99% | -46.51% | |
55 Neutral | $1.98B | -231.49 | 11.20% | ― | 42.09% | 219.69% | |
47 Neutral | $4.24B | -6.52 | -39.81% | ― | 765.67% | -202.81% | |
47 Neutral | $79.30M | -4.03 | ― | ― | 146.01% | 63.18% | |
46 Neutral | $2.91B | -14.43 | -13.02% | ― | -16.15% | -324.40% |
* Energy Sector Average
EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
38.48
9.05
30.75%
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RNW
ReNew Energy Global
5.43
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Energy Vault Holdings
3.35
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165.87%
NXXT
NextNRG
0.59
-2.03
-77.52%
FLNC
Fluence Energy
15.80
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189.91%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.