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GrafTech International Ltd (EAF)
NYSE:EAF
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GrafTech International
(NYSE:EAF)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-2.91% Downside)
The score is constrained primarily by weak financial performance (sustained losses, negative free cash flow, and negative equity) and bearish technical trends. The earnings call provides partial support via volume-growth guidance, committed orders, cost-reduction progress, and liquidity runway, but persistent price pressure and ongoing losses keep overall risk elevated; valuation support is limited due to loss-making earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Material cost reductions
Sustained cash‑cost declines materially improve the company’s ability to withstand prolonged pricing pressure. Progress toward a long‑term cash‑cost target reduces unit breakeven, supports margin recovery if volumes rebound, and lengthens the liquidity runway versus a static cost base.
U.S. market momentum
Strong share gains in the U.S. diversify revenue away from weaker export markets and may allow higher realized prices and more stable demand. Concentrated growth in a major market can raise utilization, improve fixed‑cost absorption, and support longer‑term commercial relationships.
Order visibility and liquidity
High committed volumes and a meaningful liquidity buffer provide near‑term operating visibility and financing flexibility. This reduces immediate refinancing risk, enables planned $35M 2026 capex and targeted cost programs, and gives time to execute structural options without imminent maturities.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Negative equity and high leverage materially constrain financial flexibility and increase solvency risk. The balance sheet is highly sensitive to operating volatility, limiting ability to fund investments or endure prolonged low prices and making covenant, refinancing or restructuring risks more likely if losses persist.
Negative cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow consumes liquidity and forces reliance on revolver or term‑loan draws. Continued cash burn raises the odds of dilutive or costly financing, constrains capital allocation, and reduces the margin for error when industry pricing or volumes weaken.
Structural overcapacity and pricing pressure
Persistent supply gluts and aggressive export pricing suppress realized prices industry‑wide, limiting the upside from internal cost cuts. Structural oversupply raises the risk that margins remain depressed for an extended period unless capacity is rationalized or trade dynamics change.
GrafTech International (EAF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$157.24M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)302.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.87
Revenue Growth-3.66%
EPS Growth32.11%
CountryUS
Employees1,072
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.45
Shares Outstanding25,820,110
10 Day Avg. Volume247,042
30 Day Avg. Volume302,172
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.28
Price to Book (P/B)-15.54
Price to Sales (P/S)8.00
P/FCF Ratio-33.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-70.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-235.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.33Price Target Upside67.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
GrafTech International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGrafTech International Ltd. research, develops, manufactures, and sells graphite and carbon-based solutions worldwide. It offers graphite electrodes to produce electric arc furnace steel and other ferrous and non-ferrous metals; and petroleum needle coke, a crystalline form of carbon used in the production of graphite electrodes. The company sells its products primarily through direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and distributors. GrafTech International Ltd. was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Brooklyn Heights, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrafTech International generates revenue primarily through the sale of graphite electrodes used in electric arc furnaces for steel production. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to steel manufacturers and other industrial clients who require high-quality electrode products. Key revenue streams include the sale of standard and premium-grade graphite electrodes, which can command higher prices due to their performance characteristics. Additionally, GrafTech benefits from long-term contracts with major steel producers, ensuring a steady flow of income. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations within the steel and industrial sectors, further enhancing its market reach and profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include the global demand for steel, the efficiency and reliability of its products, and its ability to maintain competitive pricing in the market.
GrafTech International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GrafTech International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but pragmatic view: GrafTech reported meaningful operational achievements (notably substantial cost reductions, strong U.S. volume growth, record safety, and a solid liquidity cushion) while continuing to face significant market headwinds—including declining realized prices, negative quarterly profitability metrics, low utilization, and structural overcapacity driven by China and India exports. Management emphasized disciplined commercial actions, further cost improvement targets, strategic options (footprint optimization, partnerships, and trade/policy engagement), and moderate volume growth guidance for 2026, but noted that pricing pressure may persist into 2026 and poses material near-term margin risk.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Volume Growth
Sales volume increased 6% for the full year 2025, reflecting commercial execution despite a challenging market backdrop.
Strong U.S. Market Momentum
U.S. sales volume grew 48% for the full year and was up 83% year-over-year in Q4; U.S. shipments represented 31% of full-year sales (up from 22% prior year).
Material Cost Reductions
Cash cost of goods sold per metric ton declined 11% year-over-year in 2025 (full-year cash costs just over $3,800/MT) and cumulatively fell 31% since 2023.
Improved Safety Performance
Total recordable incident rate improved to 0.41 in 2025, the best safety performance on record for the company.
Solid Liquidity Position
Ended 2025 with $340 million total liquidity, including $138 million cash, $102 million revolver availability and $100 million delayed draw term loan availability; no substantial debt maturities until Dec 2029.
Operational Scale and Utilization
Q4 production ~28,000 metric tons (capacity utilization 60%); full-year production 112,000 metric tons (utilization 63%).
Commercial Order Visibility and 2026 Volume Guidance
Approximately 65% of anticipated 2026 sales volume already committed; company expects 5%–10% sales volume growth in 2026 and referenced an expected ~10% year-over-year increase.
Progress Toward Lower Long-Term Costs
Management reiterated long-term cash cost target of approximately $3,600–$3,700/MT and expects a low single-digit percent YoY decline in cash costs per MT in 2026.
Negative Updates
Declining Realized Prices
Average selling price in Q4 was about $4,000/MT, down 9% year-over-year and down 5% sequentially; management stated observed pricing entering 2026 is not better than 2025.
Negative Profitability Metrics
Q4 net loss of $65 million ($2.50 per share) versus prior-year net loss of $49 million ($1.92); Q4 adjusted EBITDA negative $22 million versus negative $7 million prior year.
Negative Quarter Cash Flow and Interest Burden
Q4 cash used in operating activities $21 million and adjusted free cash flow negative $39 million; semiannual interest payments ~ $34 million due in Q2 and Q4 contributed to cash outflow.
Industry Overcapacity and Aggressive Competitor Pricing
Management highlighted structural overcapacity—particularly exports from China and India—driving aggressive, sometimes irrational, pricing behavior that pressures realized prices and margins.
Sales Volume Below Expectations
Q4 sales volume ~27,000 MT was flat year-over-year and fell short of company expectations; full-year volume finished below the most recent guidance range due to disciplined decision to walk away from low-margin opportunities.
Low Utilization Rates
Capacity utilization remained low at 60% in Q4 and 63% for the full year, indicating underutilized fixed cost base amid weak demand/pricing in parts of the world.
Geographic and Trade Uncertainty
Trade dynamics uncertain: Indian tariff reduction (from 50% to 18%) and ongoing Chinese exports create headwinds in some markets; management expects competitive pressure to continue into 2026.
Risk to Long-Term Industry Viability
Management warned that prolonged low pricing and supply-side imbalance endanger the long-term viability of the graphite electrode industry absent structural change or capacity rationalization.
Company Guidance
GrafTech guided 2026 sales volume growth of 5–10% year‑over‑year (management cited ~10% as a specific expectation) with ~65% of anticipated 2026 volume already committed in the order book; they expect a low single‑digit % decline in cash cost per metric ton (progressing toward a long‑term cash‑cost target of ~$3,600–$3,700/ton), plan ~ $35 million of capital expenditures for 2026, anticipate a modest increase in net working capital (primarily in H1 for planned maintenance/timing), intend to draw the remaining uncapped portion of the delayed‑draw term loan (available until July 2026), and enter 2026 with year‑end 2025 liquidity of $340 million (comprised of $138M cash, $102M revolver availability and $100M delayed‑draw availability) while revolver borrowing availability is currently limited to ~ $115M less ~$14M of letters of credit; management noted no substantial debt maturities until December 2029.GrafTech International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements indicate a highly stressed profile: revenue has fallen sharply, profitability has deteriorated to sustained heavy losses with negative gross profit in 2024–2025, free cash flow is deeply negative, and the balance sheet shows elevated leverage with negative equity in 2024–2025—limiting flexibility and increasing solvency risk.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated sharply from strong results in 2020–2022 to heavy losses in 2023–2025. Revenue has fallen materially (down from ~$1.28B in 2022 to ~$504M in 2025), and margins collapsed—gross profit turned negative in 2024 and stayed negative in 2025, while net margins remained deeply negative (roughly -24% to -44% in 2023–2025). The only offset is that the magnitude of operating losses improved versus 2023, but overall earnings quality and pricing/volume momentum remain weak.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage and solvency risk are elevated. Total debt remains very high (about $1.14B in 2025) relative to the asset base (~$1.03B), and stockholders’ equity is negative in 2024 and 2025, which is a major red flag and limits financial flexibility. While debt was lower than 2020 levels, the deterioration in equity and continued losses leave the balance sheet strained and highly sensitive to operating performance.12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened significantly versus 2020–2022. Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2024 and worsened further in 2025 (operating cash flow about -$82M and free cash flow about -$121M), indicating the core business is consuming cash and likely requiring external funding or balance-sheet actions. A prior bright spot was 2023, when cash flow was positive despite a net loss, but that cushion has since reversed.20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 504.13M | 538.78M | 620.50M | 1.28B | 1.35B |
| Gross Profit | -15.68M | -22.19M | 26.66M | 545.40M | 653.70M |
| EBITDA | -4.74M | 1.67M | -145.21M | 546.80M | 589.04M |
| Net Income | -219.84M | -131.16M | -255.25M | 382.96M | 388.33M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.03B | 1.22B | 1.29B | 1.60B | 1.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.43M | 256.25M | 176.88M | 134.64M | 57.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 1.09B | 930.75M | 921.93M | 1.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.30B | 1.21B | 1.27B | 1.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | -259.63M | -78.90M | 78.25M | 337.71M | 23.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -120.50M | -74.40M | 22.52M | 252.46M | 384.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -81.62M | -40.09M | 76.56M | 324.63M | 443.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.33M | -34.21M | -53.82M | -71.97M | -57.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -341.00K | 155.72M | 18.71M | -176.27M | -471.79M |
GrafTech International Technical Analysis
Negative
6.18
Price Trends
14.70
Negative
14.77
Negative
12.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.80
Positive
24.36
Positive
6.31
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.67, below the 50-day MA of 14.70, and below the 200-day MA of 12.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.36 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EAF.
GrafTech International Risk Analysis
GrafTech International disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GrafTech International reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GrafTech International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.48B | 21.78 | 16.74% | 0.67% | 6.17% | 20.86% | |
69 Neutral | $1.24B | 33.39 | 8.33% | 0.35% | 15.93% | 12.72% | |
68 Neutral | $1.56B | 7.69 | 151.33% | 6.02% | 2.28% | 534.60% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
52 Neutral | $2.59B | -0.87 | -95.42% | ― | 2.53% | -2.83% | |
51 Neutral | $354.68M | -0.99 | -26.12% | ― | 41.05% | -1.02% | |
44 Neutral | $157.24M | -0.76 | ― | ― | -3.66% | 32.11% |
* Industrials Sector Average
EAF
GrafTech International
6.18
-5.82
-48.50%
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GrafTech International Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
GrafTech Announces Resignation of Board Members
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
On November 25, 2025, GrafTech International announced that Michel Dumas and Anthony Taccone would resign from the Board of Directors, effective December 31, 2025. Their resignations are not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.
The most recent analyst rating on (EAF) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GrafTech International stock, see the EAF Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.