Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $141.15M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 289.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 6.62%
• EPS Growth: 30.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 783
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 88,217,445
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 314,925
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 289,633
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.00
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-41.63% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

Overall score is held back primarily by persistent negative operating/free cash flow and a weak downtrend in the technical indicators. These are partially offset by improved profitability versus 2024, a healthier balance sheet, and a more positive earnings-call backdrop that emphasized liquidity improvement and strategic actions (including the property-management sale), with valuation appearing reasonable on the provided P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue rebound & return to profit

A 2025 revenue rebound (+20.6% YoY) and return to $15.2M net income demonstrate recovery in core brokerage demand and improved execution. If sustained, this builds scale advantages, supports agent productivity gains, and provides a more durable base for reinvestment and profitability over the next several quarters.

Materially improved leverage

The drop in debt and lower debt-to-equity materially strengthen the capital structure, reducing refinancing and covenant risk. Improved balance-sheet flexibility increases resilience to housing-cycle shocks, permits strategic M&A or tech investment, and lowers long-term financing costs that can persist for months.

Strategic divestiture boosts liquidity

Selling the property-management unit for ~$85M (≈$75M after tax) both simplifies operations and injects non-recurring liquidity. That structural capital infusion strengthens cash reserves, reduces operational complexity, and creates firepower to fund technology, international expansion, or targeted acquisitions without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative cash flow

Negative operating cash flow and FCF in 2025 show ongoing earnings-to-cash conversion problems. This structural cash burn raises reliance on asset sales, one-time gains, or external funding to finance operations and strategic initiatives, heightening liquidity and resilience risk if transaction volumes decline.

Thin, volatile profitability

A ~1.5% net margin and history of volatile operating results means earnings are highly sensitive to small revenue changes. Low structural margins limit the company's ability to self-fund growth or absorb downturns, making sustained profit improvement contingent on consistent volume and price stability.

High macro sensitivity

The business is structurally tied to transaction volumes and prices; elevated mortgage rates and geopolitical uncertainty materially reduce deal flow. This macro sensitivity can persist for months and directly undermines commission-based revenue, limiting the durability of recent operational improvements absent favorable rate or demand trends.

Douglas Elliman Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Douglas Elliman Inc. engages in the real estate services and property technology investment business in the United States. It operates in two segments, Real Estate Brokerage, and Corporate and Other. The company conducts residential real estate brokerage operations. It has approximately 100 offices with approximately 6,500 real estate agents in the New York metropolitan areas, as well as in Florida, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Colorado, New Jersey, and Texas. Douglas Elliman Inc. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida. Douglas Elliman Inc.(NYSE:DOUG) operates independently of Vector Group Ltd. as of December 29, 2021.

How the Company Makes Money

Douglas Elliman Inc. primarily makes money by earning commissions and fees tied to residential real estate transactions that its agents and brokerage operations facilitate. The core revenue stream is brokerage commission income from representing buyers and sellers in home sales; when a transaction closes, the company receives a portion of the total commission and pays the remainder to affiliated real estate agents under commission-split arrangements. A second major revenue stream is rental brokerage income, where the company earns fees/commissions for arranging residential leases. The company also generates revenue from new development marketing and sales (often providing dedicated marketing, sales teams, and on-site sales capabilities for condominium and other residential projects), typically earning fees and/or commissions based on contracted arrangements and successful closings. To a lesser extent, the company may earn other service fees connected to its brokerage activities (for example, referral-related fees or ancillary real estate service income where offered through subsidiaries); if specific sub-streams are not publicly itemized, they are not separately determinable. Overall earnings are influenced by residential transaction volumes, home prices (which affect commission dollars), agent count and productivity, and the pace of new development and luxury-market activity.

Douglas Elliman Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Income statement improved with a 2025 revenue rebound and return to profitability, and the balance sheet strengthened with lower leverage, but cash flow remains a major concern with negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2025, indicating weak earnings-to-cash conversion and higher resilience risk.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded in 2025 (+20.6% YoY) and the company returned to positive net income ($15.2M) after a sizable loss in 2024. However, profitability remains thin (net margin ~1.5% in 2025) and operating performance has been volatile, with multiple loss-making years and negative operating earnings in most periods shown, suggesting an uneven earnings profile that is still vulnerable to market conditions.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt declining to $103.0M from $156.3M in 2024 and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.56 (from ~0.96), indicating a healthier capital structure. Equity rose to $184.0M and return on equity turned positive (~8.3%) in 2025, but overall balance-sheet strength is tempered by the prior-year equity pressure from losses and a history of fluctuating returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the main weak spot: operating cash flow remained negative in 2025 (-$13.9M) and free cash flow was also negative (-$17.2M), extending a multi-year pattern of cash burn after the strong 2021 inflow. While cash outflows improved versus 2024, the business is still not consistently converting reported earnings into cash, which raises funding and resilience risk in a down cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	995.63M	955.58M	1.15B	1.35B
Gross Profit	173.61M	251.81M	955.58M	316.37M	1.35B
EBITDA	31.32M	-65.21M	-54.09M	8.26M	110.66M
Net Income	15.22M	-76.32M	-42.55M	-5.62M	98.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	444.41M	493.89M	493.42M	550.40M	595.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.23M	145.46M	119.81M	163.86M	211.62M
Total Debt	102.97M	156.28M	132.94M	142.84M	164.87M
Total Liabilities	261.13M	331.46M	259.26M	279.94M	313.30M
Stockholders Equity	183.95M	162.19M	233.23M	268.92M	279.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.23M	-31.50M	-36.56M	-23.28M	123.72M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.88M	-25.96M	-30.41M	-14.74M	127.83M
Investing Cash Flow	90.46M	-6.79M	-5.24M	-12.74M	-8.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-96.09M	45.45M	-6.21M	-30.00M	3.20M

Douglas Elliman Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOUG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, above the 50-day MA of 2.45, and above the 200-day MA of 2.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.30 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DOUG.

Douglas Elliman Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
REAX	62 Neutral	$509.58M	-99.02	-17.31%	―	65.60%	69.72%
RMAX	60 Neutral	$196.87M	18.48	1.84%	―	-6.06%	―
EXPI	56 Neutral	$1.00B	-63.56	-10.00%	2.09%	5.08%	41.21%
NMRK	56 Neutral	$2.69B	24.52	8.82%	0.68%	22.22%	94.52%
DOUG	50 Neutral	$141.15M	13.94	10.23%	―	6.62%	30.94%