DeFi Development Corporation (DFDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $119.57M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1.6
• Beta (1Y): 16.72
• Revenue Growth: 313.35%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 29,892,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,385,271
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,562,764
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 27.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.21
• 1Y Price Target: $39.00
• Price Target Upside: 760.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $18.70M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-0.66% Downside)

Score is driven mainly by mixed fundamentals: a strong reported TTM turnaround is tempered by negative operating/free cash flow and questions about earnings quality, with added balance-sheet leverage risk. Technicals are bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), partially offset by a low P/E and generally positive corporate updates (buyback/SOL-per-share progress), though dilution flexibility remains a concern.

Positive Factors

Strong reported revenue and profitability inflection

The company delivered a sharp TTM revenue turnaround with materially positive net income, indicating accelerating product adoption or revenue expansion. If sustained, this expands operating scale and supports reinvestment, strategic initiatives, and longer-term margin improvement.

Large asset and equity base supports flexibility

A substantial equity and asset base provides durable capacity to fund operations, staking activities, or opportunistic investments without immediate capital raises. This balance sheet depth supports strategic optionality through cycles and underpins treasury-led growth strategies.

Board addition & Solana-focused treasury progress

Adding a seasoned blockchain institutional executive and executing on SOL-per-share growth plus buybacks signal a strategic shift to institutionalize Solana treasury management. This strengthens governance, execution capability, and long-term alignment with crypto infrastructure trends.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates core earnings are not yet cash-generative, forcing reliance on balance sheet or financing. That undermines sustainability of reported profits and constrains reinvestment or debt reduction until cash conversion improves.

Material increase in leverage

A sudden rise in debt materially raises fixed obligations and interest exposure, reducing financial flexibility. This amplifies refinancing and liquidity risks during market stress and limits capacity for opportunistic investments or absorbing revenue volatility.

Expanded equity capacity raises dilution risk

Large increases in authorized shares and incentive capacity create persistent dilution risk, which can depress per-share economic returns and complicate shareholder alignment. This structural flexibility supports financing but may erode long-term EPS and investor returns if used extensively.

DeFi Development Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

DeFi Development Corp. is an AI-powered online platform that connects the commercial real estate industry by providing data and software subscriptions, as well as value-added services to multifamily and commercial property professionals. The company has adopted a crypto-forward treasury model, allocating its principal treasury holdings to Solana (SOL), aiming to provide investors with economic exposure to the Solana ecosystem.

How the Company Makes Money

DFDV generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by charging fees for its development services, which include custom smart contract creation and ongoing technical support for clients in the DeFi space. The company also earns money from transaction fees associated with the dApps it develops, as users pay a small fee for transactions conducted on these platforms. Additionally, DFDV may participate in profit-sharing agreements or receive equity stakes in projects it develops, ensuring a share of future earnings. Strategic partnerships with blockchain networks and financial institutions further enhance its revenue potential, allowing DFDV to expand its service offerings and access new markets.

DeFi Development Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a sharp TTM turnaround (very strong revenue growth and reported profitability), but earnings quality looks questionable given unusually extreme margins and the mismatch versus negative operating/free cash flow. Balance sheet is larger and more flexible, yet leverage rose materially, increasing risk until cash generation improves.

Income Statement

Profitability inflected sharply positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with revenue up strongly (+113.8% vs. prior period) and very high reported gross margin (~98%). Net income also turned meaningfully positive. The key offset is quality/consistency: margins appear unusually elevated (net margin ~933%, EBIT margin ~1,233%), which suggests results may be driven by non-operating items or one-time factors rather than core software economics, especially given multiple prior years of losses (2021–2024).

Balance Sheet

The company shows a much larger equity base in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ($243.8M) and a sizable asset base ($480.0M), which supports financial flexibility. However, leverage has stepped up materially with total debt at $131.7M (versus minimal debt historically), increasing financial risk. Return on equity is strong in TTM, but given the abrupt swing from negative ROE in prior years, durability of returns remains a key question.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -$7.2M), continuing a pattern of cash burn in most years. This is a notable mismatch versus the currently reported positive net income, implying profits are not translating into cash. The main positive is that free cash flow improved versus the prior period (strong positive growth rate), but the company still relies on external funding or balance sheet capacity until cash flow turns sustainably positive.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.53M	2.10M	2.00M	2.15M	1.98M	1.56M
Gross Profit	7.40M	2.07M	2.00M	2.15M	1.98M	1.56M
EBITDA	93.57M	-2.70M	-3.37M	-1.24M	-1.62M	432.24K
Net Income	70.19M	-2.73M	-3.37M	-1.26M	-1.62M	319.02K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	479.95M	4.38M	6.68M	1.34M	1.86M	740.20K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.18M	2.86M	5.08M	981.13K	1.71M	415.71K
Total Debt	131.71M	13.93K	66.66K	112.57K	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	236.15M	873.84K	867.85K	811.53K	1.44M	874.31K
Stockholders Equity	243.80M	3.50M	5.82M	525.38K	419.31K	-134.11K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-7.23M	-2.44M	-1.60M	-1.02M	65.84K	346.63K
Operating Cash Flow	-7.22M	-2.42M	-1.57M	-1.02M	65.84K	362.81K
Investing Cash Flow	-236.32M	-22.31K	-89.05K	0.00	0.00	-16.18K
Financing Cash Flow	249.57M	-117.54K	5.75M	297.52K	1.23M	49.64K

DeFi Development Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DFDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.27, below the 50-day MA of 6.11, and below the 200-day MA of 14.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DFDV.

DeFi Development Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
DFDV	58 Neutral	$119.57M	1.60	56.66%	―	313.35%	―
KLTR	54 Neutral	$225.12M	-12.14	-86.46%	―	1.88%	53.31%
BLZE	50 Neutral	$242.34M	-6.32	-55.03%	―	15.73%	40.14%
REKR	49 Neutral	$132.40M	-2.25	-114.65%	―	11.89%	34.27%
ARBE	47 Neutral	$120.83M	-2.38	-142.36%	―	-34.35%	20.88%
PDYN	41 Neutral	$282.07M	-3.96	-110.11%	―	-44.07%	25.75%

DeFi Development Corporation Corporate Events

DeFi Development Adds Blockchain Veteran Hadley Stern to Board

On January 29, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. announced the appointment of digital asset veteran Hadley Stern to its Board of Directors, adding deep expertise in blockchain infrastructure, custody, compliance, and institutional crypto adoption to its leadership. Stern’s track record includes launching Fidelity’s blockchain incubator and digital asset unit, senior roles at Bloq and BNY Mellon’s digital asset custody business, and recent work in Solana staking and onchain yield at Marinade Labs, a background the company expects will bolster execution of its Solana-focused treasury strategy and strengthen its appeal to institutional investors and partners as it seeks to further integrate into the Solana ecosystem.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFDV) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on DeFi Development Corporation stock, see the DFDV Stock Forecast page.

DeFi Development Issues Preliminary Q4 2025 Business Update

On January 5, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. issued a preliminary business update for the fourth quarter of 2025, reporting that during the quarter it increased its Solana per share (SPS) by 6.2% to 0.0743, an implied 24.6% annualized run rate, while holding 2,221,329 SOL and SOL equivalents, along with approximately $9 million in cash, stablecoins, and other readily convertible tokens as of January 1, 2026. The company disclosed that it had 29,892,800 shares outstanding as of January 1, 2026 after repurchasing 2,049,113 shares at an average price of $5.62 during the quarter, and estimated an annualized average organic yield of about 8.3% for Q4 2025 from staking, validator operations, and selective on‑chain deployments—figures that are preliminary and unaudited but underscore management’s focus on boosting SOL per share, reinforcing its treasury strategy, and potentially enhancing shareholder alignment ahead of more detailed fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results to be provided in upcoming filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFDV) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on DeFi Development Corporation stock, see the DFDV Stock Forecast page.

DeFi Development Expands Equity Plans and Capital Flexibility

At its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on December 18, 2025, DeFi Development Corp. secured shareholder approval for several measures aimed at expanding its equity compensation capacity and overall capital structure flexibility. Stockholders approved an amendment to the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for issuance by 1.5 million to a total of 5 million shares, and also approved a new 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan with an initial 250,000-share reserve and an automatic annual share increase mechanism through 2035. In addition, investors ratified the appointment of Wolf & Company, P.C. as the independent auditor for 2025, re-elected five directors to the board, and passed charter amendments significantly raising the company’s authorized common stock to 1 billion shares and authorized preferred stock to 1 billion shares, moves that collectively enhance the company’s ability to issue equity, fund operations, and use stock-based incentives to attract and retain employees and potentially pursue future financing or strategic transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFDV) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on DeFi Development Corporation stock, see the DFDV Stock Forecast page.

DeFi Development Corp. Releases Q3 2025 Shareholder Update

On November 12, 2025, DeFi Development Corp. released its third-quarter 2025 Shareholder Letter and Business Update, highlighting strong earnings and strategic initiatives. The company disclosed having 31,389,589 total shares outstanding and approximately $140.3 million in outstanding debt principal as of September 30, 2025. The announcement also included an updated FAQ regarding a previously announced warrant distribution, impacting stakeholders by providing detailed information on the terms of the warrants. This update reflects DeFi Development Corp.’s ongoing efforts to enhance transparency and engage with its investor community.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFDV) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on DeFi Development Corporation stock, see the DFDV Stock Forecast page.