Logwin AG (TGHN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €833.69M
• Dividend Yield: 5.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 61.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.06
• Revenue Growth: 21.42%
• EPS Growth: -10.98%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 3,777
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 10.65
• Shares Outstanding: 2,879,215
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 64
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 61
• PEG Ratio: -2.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €1.52B

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: €332.00 ▲(32.80% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (conservative leverage and solid cash conversion), supported by reasonable valuation and an attractive dividend yield. Technicals are moderately positive with price above key moving averages, but the main risk tempering the score is the recent revenue decline and margin/FCF softening versus prior peaks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Trend

Sustained double-digit top-line growth across reported periods indicates strong demand for Logwin's integrated logistics services and effective commercial execution. Over 2-6 months this supports greater scale, pricing leverage and continued expansion of contract logistics and freight volumes.

Balance Sheet Strength

Very low leverage and a healthy equity base provide financial flexibility to fund organic growth, absorb cyclical shocks, and pursue selective investments or partnerships without stressing liquidity. Strong ROE also signals effective capital deployment by management.

Cash Generation Quality

Robust cash conversion and positive free cash flow growth demonstrate sustainable operating cash generation. This underpins the company's ability to fund capex, service debt, and return capital to shareholders while supporting investment in network and service capabilities.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression

A falling EBIT margin and reduced gross profit imply rising operating costs or loss of pricing power, which can erode long-term profitability. If structural, these pressures could limit reinvestment, dividends or require strategic restructuring to restore margin sustainability.

Earnings Per Share Decline

Negative EPS growth points to per-share profitability deterioration versus prior periods. Persisting EPS decline can constrain strategic options, weaken investor confidence, and may indicate margin or capital allocation issues that need addressing over the medium term.

Operational Efficiency Needs

Management acknowledgement of efficiency shortfalls suggests structural operational gaps. Without measurable efficiency gains, revenue growth may not translate into proportional profit improvement, pressuring margins and requiring investment or process changes to sustain competitiveness.

Logwin AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Logwin AG (TGHN) is a prominent logistics and transport service provider based in Germany, specializing in integrated logistics solutions across various sectors, including industrial, commercial, and retail. The company operates through two primary divisions: 'Air & Ocean' and 'Solutions', offering services such as air and sea freight, contract logistics, and supply chain management. Logwin AG is committed to providing customized logistics services, leveraging its global network to enhance efficiency and customer satisfaction.

How the Company Makes Money

Logwin AG primarily makes money by charging customers for logistics services it arranges and operates. A key revenue stream comes from freight forwarding/transport management: Logwin books capacity with carriers (e.g., ocean, air, road, rail operators) and sells end-to-end shipment solutions to shippers, earning revenue that reflects the freight charges billed to customers minus the direct transport and handling costs paid to carriers and subcontractors (i.e., a gross profit/spread model, often complemented by service fees). Another important stream is contract logistics and value-added logistics, where Logwin provides services such as warehousing operations, inventory and order management, pick/pack, distribution, and other supply-chain services; revenues here are typically based on contracted rates (e.g., per pallet, per order line, per handling activity, storage fees, and management fees) and sometimes performance-based elements. The company’s earnings are influenced by shipment volumes, price levels in freight markets, its ability to procure carrier capacity efficiently, customer mix, operational efficiency in warehouses/handling, and long-term customer contracts. Specific information on significant partnerships is null.

Logwin AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are healthy, led by a conservative balance sheet (improving debt-to-equity to ~0.15 and steadily growing equity) and good earnings-quality cash generation (FCF ~90–96% of net income). The key drag is volatility in growth and profitability: revenue declined again in 2025 (down 8.7%) and margins have compressed from the 2023 peak, with 2025 free cash flow also down ~15.7% year over year.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and fairly consistent for a logistics business, with net margin steady around ~4.5% in 2024–2025 and healthy operating profitability (EBIT margin ~6–8% in 2023–2025). However, growth has been volatile: revenue surged in 2021–2022, then fell sharply in 2023 and again in 2025 (down 8.7% in 2025). Margins also compressed from the 2023 peak (net margin ~6.3% in 2023 to ~4.5% in 2024–2025), suggesting a tougher pricing/cost environment.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative: debt-to-equity improved materially over time (from ~0.41 in 2020 down to ~0.15 in 2025), indicating a strengthening capital structure. Equity has grown steadily (224m in 2020 to 395m in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity were strong where provided (roughly mid-to-high teens to low-20s in 2021–2024), though profitability has cooled in the latest year alongside the revenue decline.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear positive: free cash flow closely tracks earnings across years (free cash flow running at ~90–96% of net income in 2021–2025), indicating good earnings quality. That said, cash flow momentum weakened in 2025, with free cash flow down ~15.7% year over year, and operating cash flow relative to the company’s debt load is only moderate (coverage roughly ~0.27–0.42 over 2020–2025), leaving less cushion if conditions worsen.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.36B	1.44B	1.26B	2.26B	1.85B
Gross Profit	151.61M	156.29M	157.91M	185.59M	162.56M
EBITDA	115.01M	129.37M	136.96M	149.12M	130.91M
Net Income	60.90M	64.52M	79.29M	72.25M	62.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	806.76M	799.59M	730.49M	833.12M	797.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	384.84M	372.61M	354.90M	363.78M	247.40M
Total Debt	60.02M	59.68M	75.06M	82.06M	79.65M
Total Liabilities	411.10M	423.17M	378.82M	486.73M	514.54M
Stockholders Equity	395.44M	375.18M	349.70M	343.94M	281.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	84.90M	104.64M	101.48M	162.95M	113.30M
Operating Cash Flow	90.41M	108.99M	107.89M	169.56M	125.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.15M	-15.00M	-16.82M	-5.84M	-3.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.10M	-75.74M	-97.98M	-47.72M	-44.32M

Logwin AG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 250.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TGHN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 250 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 287.00, below the 50-day MA of 281.60, and below the 200-day MA of 256.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TGHN.

Logwin AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TGHN	79 Outperform	€833.69M	12.10	17.81%	5.12%	21.42%	-10.98%
JUN3	73 Outperform	€2.95B	14.54	11.92%	2.29%	-1.50%	2.01%
SIX2	64 Neutral	€2.79B	11.63	13.91%	3.86%	8.60%	20.38%
GBF	63 Neutral	€3.69B	22.68	13.51%	1.93%	10.17%	-20.99%
HHFA	63 Neutral	€2.23B	22.34	5.78%	0.47%	13.44%	113.13%
DHL	60 Neutral	€49.64B	15.14	16.16%	3.97%	0.77%	12.83%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%