DHL Group (DHL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €52.54B
• Dividend Yield: 3.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 0.77%
• EPS Growth: 12.83%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 580,580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 1,200,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,351,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,553,611
• PEG Ratio: -1.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €45.08
• Price Target Upside: -4.04% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: €52.00 ▲(10.69% Upside)

DHL Group's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and solid financial performance, supported by a fair valuation and attractive dividend yield. While the company faces challenges with revenue decline and increased leverage, its operational efficiency and cash flow strength provide a stable foundation. Investors should monitor potential overbought conditions in the technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Strength

Strong cash flow growth supports liquidity and operational flexibility, ensuring the company can invest in growth and weather economic fluctuations.

Operational Efficiency

Healthy margins indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for sustaining profitability in a competitive market.

Profitability Metrics

Strong return on equity reflects effective use of shareholder funds, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term value creation.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, which could impact growth prospects if not addressed.

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially affecting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Revenue Growth Challenges

Sluggish revenue growth may signal difficulties in expanding market share or adapting to changing industry dynamics, impacting long-term performance.

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. This segment's business model is based on brokering transport services between customers and freight carriers. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services; and value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce Solutions segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border non-time definite international services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports and delivers mail communication, parcels, physical and hybrid letters, and special products for the delivery of goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG was founded in 1490 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

DHL generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, the company earns money from its express delivery services, which cater to time-sensitive shipments, both domestically and internationally. The DHL Parcel division contributes significantly through parcel shipping services for e-commerce and business customers. Additionally, DHL Supply Chain provides integrated logistics solutions, including warehousing and distribution services, contributing to recurring revenue from long-term contracts. Freight transportation services, including air, ocean, and road freight, also play a crucial role in revenue generation. DHL has established strategic partnerships with various e-commerce platforms and retailers, enhancing its reach and service offerings, particularly in the growing online shopping market. Factors such as global trade growth, e-commerce expansion, and increasing demand for efficient supply chain solutions also contribute to its earnings.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DHL Group exhibits a solid financial performance with strengths in profitability and cash flow generation. Despite a slight decline in revenue growth, the company maintains strong margins and a healthy return on equity. The balance sheet is stable, though leverage is moderate. The cash flow metrics highlight the company's ability to generate and manage cash effectively.

Income Statement

DHL Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data reveals a slight decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -0.96%. However, the company maintains stable profitability margins with a gross profit margin of 15.74% and a net profit margin of 3.99%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 7.22% and 12.87%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has shown resilience in maintaining its profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of DHL Group reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.12, which is manageable but indicates a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 14.71%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is approximately 30.63%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates a sound financial foundation with some leverage considerations.

Cash Flow

DHL Group's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 4.75%, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39, reflecting robust cash flow relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.50, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The company's cash flow performance is a key strength, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.47B	84.19B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B	66.81B
Gross Profit	13.51B	13.15B	13.10B	16.55B	15.44B	11.77B
EBITDA	11.23B	10.81B	10.81B	12.73B	11.69B	8.54B
Net Income	3.54B	3.33B	3.68B	5.36B	5.05B	2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	68.75B	69.88B	66.83B	68.28B	63.59B	55.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.42B	2.19B	4.26B	3.19B	4.71B	5.80B
Total Debt	26.28B	22.44B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B	18.35B
Total Liabilities	46.91B	45.66B	43.94B	44.58B	44.09B	41.23B
Stockholders Equity	21.54B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B	13.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.55B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B	4.78B
Operating Cash Flow	9.39B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B	7.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.11B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B	-3.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.25B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B	-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DHL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.70, above the 50-day MA of 42.12, and above the 200-day MA of 39.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:DHL.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LHA	76 Outperform	€9.33B	5.25	15.13%	3.54%	5.95%	82.99%
DHL	76 Outperform	€52.54B	14.61	16.16%	3.94%	0.77%	12.83%
FRA	73 Outperform	€6.93B	17.53	9.56%	―	0.11%	2.58%
HLAG	71 Outperform	€20.70B	8.77	8.49%	6.61%	8.66%	5.41%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HHFA	57 Neutral	€2.07B	58.87	5.78%	0.47%	13.44%	113.13%