DHL Group (DHL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €48.47B
• Dividend Yield: 3.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 0.77%
• EPS Growth: 12.83%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 580,580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 1,150,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,351,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,553,611
• PEG Ratio: 1.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €49.38
• Price Target Upside: 12.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €84.84B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: €48.00 ▲(9.12% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by solid but weakening financial performance (notably the TTM revenue decline, sharply negative FCF growth, and higher leverage). Technical indicators are bearish and weigh on the score, while the relatively low P/E and ~4% dividend yield provide meaningful valuation support.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Strength

Strong cash flow growth supports liquidity and operational flexibility, ensuring the company can invest in growth and weather economic fluctuations.

Operational Efficiency

Healthy margins indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are crucial for sustaining profitability in a competitive market.

Profitability Metrics

Strong return on equity reflects effective use of shareholder funds, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term value creation.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, which could impact growth prospects if not addressed.

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially affecting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Revenue Growth Challenges

Sluggish revenue growth may signal difficulties in expanding market share or adapting to changing industry dynamics, impacting long-term performance.

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. This segment's business model is based on brokering transport services between customers and freight carriers. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services; and value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce Solutions segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border non-time definite international services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports and delivers mail communication, parcels, physical and hybrid letters, and special products for the delivery of goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG was founded in 1490 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

DHL generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, the company earns money from its express delivery services, which cater to time-sensitive shipments, both domestically and internationally. The DHL Parcel division contributes significantly through parcel shipping services for e-commerce and business customers. Additionally, DHL Supply Chain provides integrated logistics solutions, including warehousing and distribution services, contributing to recurring revenue from long-term contracts. Freight transportation services, including air, ocean, and road freight, also play a crucial role in revenue generation. DHL has established strategic partnerships with various e-commerce platforms and retailers, enhancing its reach and service offerings, particularly in the growing online shopping market. Factors such as global trade growth, e-commerce expansion, and increasing demand for efficient supply chain solutions also contribute to its earnings.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid but trending softer: TTM profitability remains decent (EBIT margin ~7.6%, net margin ~4.2%) and cash generation is strong (FCF €6.0B), but TTM revenue contracted sharply and FCF growth is strongly negative. Leverage has also increased (debt-to-equity ~1.22), reducing near-term cushion versus 2022–2024.

Income Statement

DHL Group shows solid but moderating profitability. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue is €82.9B with an EBIT margin of ~7.6% and net margin of ~4.2%, slightly better than 2024 on margins but below the stronger 2021–2022 period (when net margins were ~5.7–6.2%). The key weakness is the sharp TTM revenue contraction (reported revenue growth of -0.733), indicating a meaningful top-line slowdown versus prior years’ more stable trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably sound with good profitability on equity, but leverage has ticked up. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), total debt is €16.4B against €22.2B of equity (debt-to-equity ~1.22), higher than 2022–2024 levels (~0.87–0.94) and a point to watch. Offsetting that, returns remain healthy (TTM return on equity ~15.8%), though down from the peak profitability years (2021–2022).

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a strength, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of €8.8B and free cash flow of €6.0B. Free cash flow continues to cover a meaningful portion of earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.70), supporting financial flexibility. The main concern is weakening momentum: TTM free cash flow growth is sharply negative (-8.935), and cash conversion versus operating profit remains moderate rather than exceptional.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.86B	84.19B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B
Gross Profit	8.99B	8.63B	8.83B	11.31B	10.56B
EBITDA	8.87B	8.60B	8.87B	10.73B	10.29B
Net Income	3.50B	3.33B	3.67B	5.36B	5.05B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	74.25B	69.88B	66.83B	68.28B	63.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.08B	2.19B	4.26B	3.19B	4.71B
Total Debt	25.45B	22.44B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B
Total Liabilities	51.63B	45.66B	43.94B	44.58B	44.09B
Stockholders Equity	22.23B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.61B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B
Operating Cash Flow	8.40B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.94B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.49B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 43.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DHL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.81, below the 50-day MA of 47.70, and above the 200-day MA of 42.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:DHL.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HLAG	67 Neutral	€25.57B	36.60	8.07%	7.14%	8.66%	5.41%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FRA	63 Neutral	€6.80B	14.97	9.57%	―	0.11%	2.58%
HHFA	63 Neutral	€2.22B	161.63	-1.01%	0.47%	13.44%	113.13%
DHL	60 Neutral	€48.47B	15.14	16.16%	3.97%	0.77%	12.83%
LHA	58 Neutral	€8.81B	7.53	15.13%	3.56%	5.95%	82.99%