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DHL Group (DE:DHL)
XETRA:DHL
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DHL Group (DHL) AI Stock Analysis

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DE:DHL

DHL Group

(XETRA:DHL)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
€42.00
▲(9.75%Upside)
DHL Group's stock is rated moderately strong, primarily due to its robust financial performance and attractive valuation. Despite bearish technical indicators, the potential for a reversal exists. The company’s stable financials and high dividend yield are key strengths.
Positive Factors
Growth Ambitions
The company confirms its ambition to grow revenue by 50% by 2030 with annual growth expected to be 'GDP+'.
Operational Efficiency
Management confirms the EBIT improvement programme 'Fit for Growth', which aims to save >€1bn in costs and is targeted for structural improvements via digitalisation and process optimisation.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
FedEx Express’ decline in revenue in the premium segment, which competes with DHL’s TDI, highlights persistent weakness in activity levels.
Volume Weakness
Persistently weak International Premium volumes are seen as a negative indicator for DHL Express.

DHL Group (DHL) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDeutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. This segment's business model is based on brokering transport services between customers and freight carriers. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services; and value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce Solutions segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border non-time definite international services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports and delivers mail communication, parcels, physical and hybrid letters, and special products for the delivery of goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG was founded in 1490 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyDHL Group generates revenue through a diversified portfolio of logistics services. The company's primary revenue streams include international express delivery services, freight transportation, and supply chain management solutions. DHL Express, one of its key segments, earns money by providing time-definite international shipping services, catering to both individual and business clients. DHL Freight and DHL Global Forwarding are responsible for overland and intercontinental transportation, handling air, ocean, and road freight, and generating income through freight forwarding services. DHL Supply Chain offers contract logistics solutions, including warehousing and distribution, which are sold to businesses seeking efficient management of their supply chains. Additionally, DHL eCommerce Solutions focuses on facilitating cross-border e-commerce logistics, capitalizing on the growing online retail market. Strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and investments in technology-driven logistics solutions further bolster DHL's revenue generation capabilities.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
DHL Group exhibits a strong financial position with steady revenue growth and effective operational efficiency. The debt levels are well-managed, and the company maintains good profitability metrics. Cash flow generation is strong, though recent free cash flow has decreased, which may require monitoring.
Income Statement
78
Positive
DHL Group's revenue showed healthy growth from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a slight increase of 0.66%. Despite a decline from 2022 to 2023, the company has managed to stabilize its revenue. The gross profit margin stands at 15.74% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin remained modest at 3.99%, showing room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT margin of 6.96% and EBITDA margin of 12.73% reflect stable operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.12, showing a balanced leverage position. Return on equity is calculated at 14.22%, indicating solid profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 33.16% depicts a reasonable degree of financial stability, though there is potential risk from significant liabilities.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is a robust 2.49, signaling strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.24, suggesting adequate cash flow to support future investments. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decrease in free cash flow from previous periods.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue84.74B84.19B81.76B94.44B81.75B66.81B
Gross Profit13.34B13.15B13.10B16.55B15.44B11.77B
EBITDA10.90B10.81B10.81B12.73B11.69B8.54B
Net Income3.38B3.33B3.68B5.36B5.05B2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets71.63B69.88B66.83B68.28B63.59B55.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.25B2.19B4.26B3.19B4.71B5.80B
Total Debt26.55B22.44B20.83B20.22B19.02B18.35B
Total Liabilities47.44B45.66B43.94B44.58B44.09B41.23B
Stockholders Equity23.75B23.79B22.48B23.24B19.04B13.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.18B5.79B5.88B7.05B6.26B4.78B
Operating Cash Flow8.40B8.72B9.26B10.96B9.99B7.70B
Investing Cash Flow-2.58B-2.39B-2.18B-3.18B-4.82B-3.64B
Financing Cash Flow-4.06B-6.35B-6.90B-7.41B-6.22B-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price38.27
Price Trends
50DMA
39.70
Negative
100DMA
38.35
Negative
200DMA
36.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
39.05
Neutral
STOCH
25.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DHL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.50, below the 50-day MA of 39.70, and above the 200-day MA of 36.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:DHL.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
€45.44B13.5814.23%4.83%4.50%-1.85%
64
Neutral
$10.64B16.526.24%2.15%3.01%-28.89%
€8.76B4.9417.73%3.90%
€48.13M3.0324.96%
€6.04B14.449.15%
€2.01B60.065.42%0.38%
€21.83B8.6312.73%6.19%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DE:DHL
DHL Group
38.27
3.00
8.50%
GB:0H4A
Deutsche Lufthansa
7.31
1.95
36.38%
GB:0NAC
Francotyp Postalia Holding
2.96
0.34
12.98%
GB:0O1R
Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide
65.20
19.46
42.54%
GB:0NBI
Hamburger Hafen und Logistik
20.60
3.93
23.58%
GB:0RCG
Hapag Lloyd
124.40
-23.73
-16.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025