DHL Group (DHL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €45.56B
• Dividend Yield: 4.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 4.50%
• EPS Growth: -1.85%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 580,580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.67
• Shares Outstanding: 1,200,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,970,553
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,133,518
• PEG Ratio: 1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €45.46
• Price Target Upside: 13.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: €46.00 ▲(14.66%Upside)

DHL Group's stock is rated highly due to its strong financial performance, particularly in cash generation and debt management, and favorable valuation metrics. Technical indicators show strong momentum, although caution is warranted due to potential overbought conditions. Despite the absence of recent earnings call data and corporate events, the stock remains an attractive investment.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency Initiatives

Management confirms the EBIT improvement programme 'Fit for Growth', which aims to save over €1bn in costs and is targeted for structural improvements via digitalisation and process optimisation.

Revenue Growth Ambitions

The company confirms its ambition to grow revenue by 50% by 2030 with annual growth expected to be 'GDP+'.

Volume and Margin Expansion

DHL Express is expected to grow volumes by 4-5% with EBIT margins growing to the mid-teens driven by yield management, network optimisation and cost management.

Negative Factors

Competition and Market Trends

FedEx Express' decline in revenue in the premium segment, which competes with DHL’s TDI, highlights persistent weakness in activity levels.

Geopolitical and Lane Pressure

FedEx management comments suggest continued pressure on the China to US lane, which aligns with weakening trends for DHL Express.

Weak International Premium Volumes

Persistently weak International Premium volumes are seen as a negative indicator for DHL Express.

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. This segment's business model is based on brokering transport services between customers and freight carriers. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services; and value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce Solutions segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border non-time definite international services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports and delivers mail communication, parcels, physical and hybrid letters, and special products for the delivery of goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG was founded in 1490 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

DHL Group makes money through its diversified portfolio of logistics services. Its primary revenue streams include express delivery services, where it charges fees for transporting parcels and documents quickly across the globe. The freight forwarding segment generates income by managing and coordinating the transportation of goods via air, ocean, and road freight. Additionally, DHL earns revenue from its supply chain solutions by offering integrated logistics management services, including warehousing, distribution, and value-added services tailored to specific industry needs. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with e-commerce platforms, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. Key factors contributing to DHL's earnings include its global network, technological advancements in logistics, and its ability to adapt to market demands, such as the growing need for sustainable and efficient supply chain solutions.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DHL Group exhibits a strong financial position with steady revenue growth and effective operational efficiency. The debt levels are well-managed, and the company maintains good profitability metrics. Cash flow generation is strong, though recent free cash flow has decreased, which may require monitoring.

Income Statement

DHL Group's revenue showed healthy growth from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a slight increase of 0.66%. Despite a decline from 2022 to 2023, the company has managed to stabilize its revenue. The gross profit margin stands at 15.74% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin remained modest at 3.99%, showing room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT margin of 6.96% and EBITDA margin of 12.73% reflect stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.12, showing a balanced leverage position. Return on equity is calculated at 14.22%, indicating solid profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 33.16% depicts a reasonable degree of financial stability, though there is potential risk from significant liabilities.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is a robust 2.49, signaling strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.24, suggesting adequate cash flow to support future investments. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decrease in free cash flow from previous periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	84.74B	84.19B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B	66.81B
Gross Profit	13.34B	13.15B	13.10B	16.55B	15.44B	11.77B
EBITDA	10.90B	10.81B	10.81B	12.73B	11.69B	8.54B
Net Income	3.38B	3.33B	3.68B	5.36B	5.05B	2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.63B	69.88B	66.83B	68.28B	63.59B	55.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.25B	2.19B	4.26B	3.19B	4.71B	5.80B
Total Debt	26.55B	22.44B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B	18.35B
Total Liabilities	47.44B	45.66B	43.94B	44.58B	44.09B	41.23B
Stockholders Equity	23.75B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B	13.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.18B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B	4.78B
Operating Cash Flow	8.40B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B	7.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.58B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B	-3.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.06B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B	-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DHL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.71, above the 50-day MA of 39.29, and above the 200-day MA of 36.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:DHL.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DHL	80 Outperform	€45.56B	13.61	14.23%	4.64%	4.50%	-1.85%
Sector *	68 Neutral	€2.72B	19.17	7.73%	2.90%	-1.49%	-31.61%
0H4A		€8.88B	7.11	12.35%	4.05%	―	―
0NAC		€42.68M	2.70	24.96%	―	―	―
0O1R		€5.89B	14.15	9.15%	―	―	―
0NBI		€1.77B	55.52	5.42%	0.31%	―	―
0RCG		€22.41B	8.89	12.73%	5.55%	―	―