SAF-HOLLAND SE (SFQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €770.80M
• Dividend Yield: 5.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 53.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -12.01%
• EPS Growth: -28.10%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 5,626
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 45,394,302
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 51,723
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 53,325
• PEG Ratio: -2.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €22.00
• Price Target Upside: 29.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €17.50 ▲(3.06% Upside)

Overall score reflects steady but cautionary fundamentals (slowing revenue/FCF and high leverage) balanced by constructive price momentum and a relatively attractive valuation supported by a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified OEM and Aftermarket Revenue

SAF‑HOLLAND sells to OEMs and the aftermarket and leverages strategic partnerships, providing recurring spare‑parts revenue and contract scale. This diversification supports steadier cash flows and demand resilience across economic cycles over the next 2–6 months.

Broad product portfolio and global supplier position

A broad lineup of critical trailer and commercial vehicle components and a global footprint create competitive advantages in OEM sourcing and aftermarket reach. Product breadth and global scale help sustain long‑term customer relationships and win multi‑year supply contracts.

Reasonable margin profile and ROE

Stable gross and EBITDA margins with mid‑single‑digit ROE reflect operational efficiency in manufacturing and aftermarket services. These margins support reinvestment in product development and aftermarket capabilities, underpinning durable profitability if volumes stabilize.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

Recent downward revenue trends indicate demand weakness or market share pressure. If this persists, it can erode fixed‑cost absorption in manufacturing, strain margins and limit the firm's ability to invest in product innovation or expand aftermarket services over the medium term.

High leverage on the balance sheet

Material leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest rate risk. In an industry exposed to cyclicality, high debt limits the company's ability to fund capex, pursue M&A, or absorb downturns without constraining cash available for growth or shareholder returns.

Weak cash conversion and declining FCF

Below‑par cash conversion and falling free cash flow reduce the firm's ability to service debt, sustain dividends, or fund R&D. Over several quarters this can force tradeoffs between upkeep of aftermarket service networks, product investment and deleveraging priorities.

SAF-HOLLAND SE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SAF-Holland SE manufactures and supplies chassis-related assemblies and components for trailers, trucks, semi-trailers, and buses. The company offers axle and suspension systems, fifth wheels, coupling systems, kingpins, and landing gears, as well as ball races, braking and EBS systems, lighting systems, and disc brakes. It markets its products under the SAF, Holland, Neway, KLL, V.Orlandi, TrailerMaster, and York brands. The company serves original equipment manufacturers. It primarily operates in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Bessenbach, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

SAF-HOLLAND generates revenue through the sale of its products to manufacturers of commercial vehicles, trailer builders, and through aftermarket services. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of components such as axles, landing gear, and braking systems to OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and aftermarket parts to repair and maintenance providers. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major vehicle manufacturers, enhancing its market presence and sales volume. Additionally, SAF-HOLLAND's focus on innovation and development of advanced technologies contributes to its revenue by meeting the evolving needs of the market, driving demand for its products.

SAF-HOLLAND SE Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are stable but carry notable risks: revenue (-1.29%) and free cash flow growth (-3.46%) declined, leverage is high (debt-to-equity 1.72, equity ratio 26.93%), while profitability is reasonable (gross margin 22.70%, EBITDA margin 12.97%, ROE 10.20%).

Income Statement

SAF-HOLLAND SE's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 1.29%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a stable gross profit margin of 22.70% and a net profit margin of 2.91%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 7.77% and 12.97%, respectively, showing reasonable operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity (ROE) is 10.20%, showing moderate profitability on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 26.93%, suggesting a lower proportion of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 3.46% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.65, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.73B	1.88B	2.11B	1.57B	1.25B	959.52M
Gross Profit	389.45M	417.73M	412.76M	259.55M	209.09M	168.85M
EBITDA	222.29M	248.32M	234.75M	149.27M	115.61M	74.05M
Net Income	55.72M	77.35M	79.93M	61.08M	36.74M	13.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.77B	1.71B	1.66B	1.50B	1.01B	920.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	358.98M	311.18M	251.65M	248.60M	167.32M	173.15M
Total Debt	890.62M	774.21M	710.54M	769.47M	370.07M	375.01M
Total Liabilities	1.29B	1.18B	1.19B	1.06B	643.20M	620.02M
Stockholders Equity	477.20M	523.46M	473.05M	440.54M	370.22M	297.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.12M	143.21M	141.04M	117.14M	15.00M	113.46M
Operating Cash Flow	162.61M	200.65M	202.73M	153.39M	39.65M	137.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-59.80M	-97.42M	-13.78M	-431.68M	-21.86M	-21.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.97M	-49.04M	-180.87M	353.30M	-31.59M	-64.90M

SAF-HOLLAND SE Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:SFQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.62, above the 50-day MA of 15.43, and above the 200-day MA of 15.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:SFQ.

SAF-HOLLAND SE Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KBX	70 Neutral	€15.87B	36.48	14.52%	1.85%	-1.77%	-28.68%
SFQ	68 Neutral	€770.80M	13.83	11.63%	5.70%	-12.01%	-28.10%
HLE	62 Neutral	€9.07B	56.15	5.24%	1.17%	<0.01%	-50.97%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CON	58 Neutral	$13.33B	53.74	-1.10%	2.88%	-38.10%	-75.32%
SHA0	52 Neutral	€9.43B	-6.68	-34.39%	3.15%	45.16%	-790.24%
ZIL2	46 Neutral	€269.91M	-2.35	-16.55%	3.51%	-6.21%	-995.53%