GRENKE AG (GLJ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €585.84M
• Dividend Yield: 2.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 67.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 16.74%
• EPS Growth: -22.66%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 2,196
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 46,495,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 61,687
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 67,556
• PEG Ratio: -0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €21.05
• Price Target Upside: 67.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €739.46M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: €13.00 ▲(3.17% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (higher leverage, weaker equity position, and a sharp negative turn in operating/free cash flow), reinforced by bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is the main support due to the low P/E and a ~3% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Recurring leasing model & distribution

GRENKE’s core business of originating and managing lease contracts generates contractual, recurring payments and fee income. Combined with vendor/dealer distribution channels, this creates durable revenue visibility and scalable origination capacity that supports steady cash flow over lease lives.

Pre-shock revenue growth trend

Multi-year revenue expansion through 2024 reflects sustained demand for small-ticket equipment finance and effective channel partnerships. This track record indicates an established market position in SME leasing and the operational ability to grow originations before the recent reversal.

Previously strong cash generation

Strong operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024 showed the business could convert earnings into liquidity, supporting debt service and reinvestment. That historical cash-generation capability provides a foundation for restoring funding flexibility if operating trends stabilize.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage and weakened equity

A marked increase in debt alongside lower equity materially raises balance-sheet risk. Higher leverage tightens refinancing windows, increases interest-sensitivity and covenant risk, and reduces strategic flexibility, amplifying exposure if earnings or funding conditions worsen.

Cash-flow reversal and liquidity strain

The shift from strong positive cash flow to large operating and free cash outflows erodes liquidity and self-funding ability. This structural reversal may force reliance on external funding, asset sales or reduced originations, constraining growth and increasing funding cost vulnerability.

Sharp revenue shock & margin compression

A dramatic revenue reversal and multi-year margin decline weaken earnings quality and return generation. Persistent margin pressure reduces ability to cover funding costs and absorb credit losses, challenging sustainable profitability and long-term capital accumulation.

GRENKE AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grenke AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial services to small and medium-sized (SME) enterprises in Germany, France, Italy, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Leasing, Banking, and Factoring. The company is involved in the leasing activities, such as financing to commercial lessees, leasing, service, protection, and maintenance offerings, as well as disposal of used equipment; and small-ticket leasing of IT products, such as PCs, notebooks, servers, monitors, peripheral equipment, software, telecommunication and copying and medical technology, as well as other IT products. It also provides banking products and services, such as fixed deposits to private and business customers through its Website; financing services to business start-ups, as well as development loans to SMEs and self-employed professionals; and small-ticket factoring services. Grenke AG operates a total of 154 locations. The company was formerly known as GrenkeLeasing AG and changed its name to Grenke AG in May 2016. Grenke AG was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Baden-Baden, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

GRENKE AG primarily makes money by originating and managing lease contracts and earning income over the life of those contracts. Key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (1) Leasing income and interest-like earnings: GRENKE purchases equipment (or finances the acquisition) and leases it to business customers, generating recurring payments; the company earns a margin between its funding costs and the yield embedded in lease pricing. (2) Fees and ancillary income: Depending on the product structure and jurisdiction, the company may earn fees related to contract origination, servicing, or other transaction-related services; if specific fee lines are not publicly detailed in the provided context, the exact breakdown is null. (3) Credit and risk management results: Profitability is influenced by credit performance (defaults, recoveries) and provisioning; lower losses support higher net earnings, while deteriorating credit performance reduces earnings. (4) Funding and treasury spread: As a financial services provider, GRENKE’s results depend on how efficiently it funds its lease portfolio (e.g., via bank funding, deposits, bonds, or other refinancing instruments); the spread between funding costs and returns on the leasing portfolio is a central profit component. (5) Distribution model and partnerships: The company typically originates a significant share of business through partnerships with equipment vendors, dealers, and resellers that refer customers at the point of sale; these channels help drive contract volume and scale. Specific named partnerships and their financial terms are null if not explicitly available.

GRENKE AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statement data points to a negative inflection: income statement trends show margin compression and a sharp recent revenue-growth shock, the balance sheet shows materially higher leverage with lower equity, and cash flow flipped from strong positive to large negative (operating and free cash flow), reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue growth was solid from 2022–2024 (about +0.9%, +11.9%, +19.2%), but the latest annual period shows a sharp reversal (about -101% growth) and weaker profitability versus prior years. Margins compressed over time (net margin fell from ~16.4% in 2021 to ~9.3% in 2024), and earnings also trended down from 2021–2023 before stabilizing in 2024 and then slipping again in the latest period. Overall, the income statement reflects a business that was growing and profitable, but with declining margin profile and a notable recent growth shock that raises quality/visibility concerns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially: total debt rose to ~€7.52B in the latest annual period from ~€4.32B in 2024, while equity declined to ~€1.15B from ~€1.34B. In 2024, debt was already elevated at ~3.2x equity, and the latest jump in debt combined with lower equity implies meaningfully higher balance-sheet risk. Returns on equity in the mid-single-digits (about 5.7% in 2024 and ~6–7% in 2022–2023) are positive but not strong enough to offset the increased leverage trend.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile and recently deteriorated: operating cash flow swung from strong positive in 2023–2024 (~€329M and ~€394M) to a large outflow in the latest annual period (~-€238M). Free cash flow also turned deeply negative in the latest period (~-€257M) after being positive in 2023–2024 (~€322M–€385M). While 2023–2024 free cash flow was close to reported earnings (supporting earnings quality), the latest reversal signals potential working-capital/funding pressure and reduces financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	901.99M	819.15M	687.14M	614.02M	608.60M
Gross Profit	589.10M	396.86M	372.43M	384.42M	414.83M
EBITDA	119.70M	153.51M	135.65M	146.31M	165.66M
Net Income	69.76M	75.94M	92.32M	90.38M	99.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.09B	8.22B	7.10B	6.41B	6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	674.09M	975.46M	697.81M	449.46M	853.37M
Total Debt	7.52B	4.32B	3.84B	3.68B	3.71B
Total Liabilities	7.87B	6.90B	5.74B	5.08B	5.39B
Stockholders Equity	1.15B	1.34B	1.37B	1.36B	1.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-257.06M	385.39M	322.22M	-355.05M	-79.17M
Operating Cash Flow	-238.26M	393.96M	329.25M	-346.84M	-72.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.12M	-12.08M	-33.34M	-8.25M	20.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-32.77M	-105.51M	-47.30M	-49.92M	-39.01M

GRENKE AG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:GLJ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.79, below the 50-day MA of 14.50, and below the 200-day MA of 15.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:GLJ.

GRENKE AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MPCK	73 Outperform	€169.55M	4.34	13.05%	5.53%	1.42%	8.56%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ALG	61 Neutral	€61.89M	5.89	17.06%	3.06%	-23.72%	40.60%
MUX	61 Neutral	€596.72M	0.68	4.72%	6.77%	14.56%	―
PBB	53 Neutral	€374.38M	-0.66	-6.58%	3.61%	-14.47%	-542.84%
GLJ	49 Neutral	€585.84M	8.02	4.66%	2.63%	16.74%	-22.66%