Dauch Corporation (DCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.72B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.62
• Revenue Growth: -6.02%
• EPS Growth: 42.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 235,984,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,035,285
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,059,490
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.39
• 1Y Price Target: $10.48
• Price Target Upside: 43.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.92B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(23.63% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (resilient cash flow and improving leverage offset by volatile, loss-making profitability) and a constructive technical uptrend. Earnings-call guidance and synergy plans support the outlook, but acquisition-related debt, interest, and near-term cash outlays temper confidence, while valuation is only average for the underlying earnings volatility.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation Resilience

Dauch consistently generated positive operating and free cash flow, delivering $213M adjusted FCF in 2025 despite a GAAP loss. Durable cash generation underpins the company's ability to fund capex, service debt, and finance integration costs, providing financial flexibility while synergies and margins ramp.

Transformational Acquisition Expands Scale

The Dauch/Dowlais combination materially expands product breadth, metal-forming capabilities and geographic footprint, strengthening OEM relationships and diversification. Increased scale should support longer-term share wins, cross-selling and procurement leverage that sustainably improve competitive positioning and margins.

Improving Net Leverage Trend

Reported net leverage improved year-over-year, reflecting progress on deleveraging before the acquisition close. A declining leverage trajectory enhances financial flexibility to absorb integration costs and fund synergies, lowering refinancing risk and enabling prioritized investment in growth initiatives over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Volatile, Weak GAAP Profitability

Reported GAAP profitability swung materially into a larger loss in 2025, signalling thin and inconsistent underlying margins. Persistent volatility in net income and weakened operating margins complicate reinvestment plans, challenge return generation for shareholders, and raise sensitivity to cyclical OEM demand.

Large Near-Term Cash Outlays

Management expects substantial one-time cash payments to execute restructuring and capture synergies in 2026. These near-term drains materially reduce free cash available for other uses, increase liquidity risk if benefits are delayed, and make quarter-to-quarter cash generation more dependent on successful integration execution.

Substantial Gross Debt Post-Closing

A large gross debt load after closing elevates interest expense and refinancing exposure, limiting operating flexibility until synergies and cash generation reduce net debt. High absolute leverage heightens vulnerability to interest-rate moves and cyclical auto demand, making timely execution of cost savings critical to long-term stability.

Dauch Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dauch Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. It operates through two segments, Driveline and Metal Forming segments. The Driveline segment offers front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment provides range of products, such as engine, transmission, driveline, and safety-critical components for traditional internal combustion engine and electric vehicle architectures, including light vehicles, commercial vehicles, and off-highway vehicles, as well as products for industrial markets. It operates in North America, Asia, Europe, and South America. The company was formerly known as American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Dauch Corporation in January 2026. Dauch Corporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

How the Company Makes Money

American Axle generates revenue primarily through contracts with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automotive industry. The company earns money by supplying critical components and systems that are integral to vehicle performance and safety. Key revenue streams include the sale of driveline and drivetrain products, which are often sold as part of long-term contracts with major automakers. Additionally, AAM benefits from aftermarket sales of replacement parts and components. Significant partnerships with major automotive brands facilitate steady revenue, while ongoing investments in technology and innovation help to maintain competitiveness and adapt to changing market demands, such as the shift towards electric vehicles.

Dauch Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed: cash flow is relatively resilient (positive operating cash flow and free cash flow even in 2025), and leverage appears to have improved, but profitability is thin and volatile with a return to losses in 2025 and weaker operating margins versus 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over the last several years (with a strong rebound after 2020), but the most recent year shows some slippage: 2025 revenue was down versus 2024 despite still being above earlier periods. Profitability is thin and volatile—net income swung from a modest profit in 2024 to a loss in 2025, and net margins remain near break-even. Gross margin has been fairly steady (~12%), but operating performance appears inconsistent (EBIT/EBITDA margins weakened materially in 2025 versus 2024), indicating execution and cost pressure risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage risk looks improved in 2025, with debt-to-equity falling sharply versus prior years and total debt reported far lower than 2021–2024 levels. That said, the company’s equity base is still modest relative to assets, and returns on equity have been inconsistent, turning negative in 2025 following a positive 2024. Overall, the balance sheet trend is moving in the right direction on leverage, but profitability and the sharp year-to-year balance sheet shift warrant caution.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across the periods provided, including 2025 despite a net loss. However, free cash flow declined in 2025 (negative growth), and cash flow coverage of obligations appears only moderate based on the provided coverage ratio levels. In short, cash flow is resilient, but the recent downshift in free cash flow reduces flexibility if earnings remain pressured.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.84B	6.12B	6.08B	5.80B	5.16B
Gross Profit	704.50M	741.40M	624.30M	704.90M	722.70M
EBITDA	695.50M	718.50M	664.40M	732.90M	740.70M
Net Income	-19.70M	35.00M	-33.60M	64.30M	5.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.67B	5.06B	5.36B	5.47B	5.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	708.90M	552.90M	519.90M	511.50M	530.20M
Total Debt	135.20M	2.74B	2.89B	3.13B	3.23B
Total Liabilities	6.03B	4.50B	4.75B	4.84B	5.18B
Stockholders Equity	640.00M	562.80M	604.90M	627.30M	457.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	155.10M	207.40M	201.50M	277.50M	357.20M
Operating Cash Flow	411.60M	455.40M	396.10M	448.90M	538.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-169.60M	-254.80M	-184.50M	-243.00M	-161.10M
Financing Cash Flow	1.40B	-156.20M	-205.50M	-217.20M	-401.40M

Dauch Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.16, below the 50-day MA of 7.32, and above the 200-day MA of 5.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DCH.

Dauch Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VC	73 Outperform	$2.84B	9.36	23.16%	0.57%	-4.03%	-39.51%
GTX	71 Outperform	$4.01B	13.11	―	1.49%	-1.09%	56.16%
BWA	62 Neutral	$12.94B	48.84	5.05%	1.24%	0.08%	-83.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DCH	61 Neutral	$1.72B	-42.89	-3.28%	―	-6.02%	42.35%
ADNT	55 Neutral	$2.03B	-7.09	-16.78%	―	-1.04%	-1510.41%
DAN	53 Neutral	$3.84B	74.40	-4.82%	1.70%	-18.23%	―

Dauch Corporation Corporate Events

Dauch Corporation Expands Leadership Team and Executive Incentives

On February 5, 2026, Dauch strengthened its leadership bench by appointing Fiona MacAulay and Simon Mackenzie Smith as independent directors and naming former GKN Automotive chief executive Markus Bannert as vice president of metal forming. The company also granted Bannert a sizable performance stock unit inducement award on February 5, 2026, tied to ambitious share-price targets through March 31, 2029, underscoring its drive to align executive incentives with long-term shareholder value and support integration following its business combination with Dowlais Group plc.

The most recent analyst rating on (DCH) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dauch Corporation stock, see the DCH Stock Forecast page.