Dauch Corporation (DCH)
NYSE:DCH
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Dauch Corporation
(NYSE:DCH)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-4.68% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is held down primarily by the financial risk profile—very high leverage alongside thin/negative net profitability—despite positive operating/free cash flow. Technicals also remain weak with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD. The earnings call adds some offset via upbeat 2026 guidance and synergy-driven improvement plans, but near-term integration costs, higher interest expense, and elevated debt keep the overall risk/reward constrained.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding to support operations, capex and deleveraging. Over a 2–3 year horizon this cash generation underpins ability to service interest, fund synergy investments and reduce net leverage absent large external shocks.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Elevated leverage materially increases refinancing and earnings‑volatility risk and limits financial flexibility. High gross post-close debt magnifies interest burden and constrains capital allocation, meaning deleveraging must occur via sustained cash generation and realized synergies to restore balance sheet resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding to support operations, capex and deleveraging. Over a 2–3 year horizon this cash generation underpins ability to service interest, fund synergy investments and reduce net leverage absent large external shocks.
Read all positive factors
Dauch Corporation (DCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth-6.02%
EPS Growth42.35%
CountryUS
Employees19,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding236,746,890
10 Day Avg. Volume3,391,382
30 Day Avg. Volume4,912,892
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.09Price Target Upside74.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.09B
Dauch Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dauch Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. It operates through two segments, Driveline and Meta...
Dauch Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive strategic picture: management closed a transformational acquisition that materially expands scale, product breadth and global reach, identified $300M of synergies with front‑loaded capture, and provided ambitious combined‑company 2026 guidance (sales $10.3B–$10.7B, EBITDA $1.3B–$1.4B, FCF $235M–$325M). Operationally, adjusted EBITDA margin improved and adjusted free cash flow remained positive. Offsetting these positives are a larger GAAP net loss, a year‑over‑year revenue decline in 2025, higher interest expense and significant near‑term cash outlays for restructuring and synergy implementation plus integration/accounting complexity. Management expects these headwinds to be transitional and to yield improving margins, synergies and cash flow over the next 2–3 years.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $743.2M, representing a 12.7% margin, up 50 basis points from 12.2% a year ago. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $169M (12.2% of sales), a year-over-year increase versus the quarter prior (Q4 adjusted EBITDA up ~$5M, ~3.2%).
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss Widened
GAAP net loss for 2025 was $75.3M or $0.63 per share, compared with a net loss of $13.7M or $0.12 per share in 2024 — a materially larger reported loss driven by non‑GAAP adjustments, transaction-related items and acquisition accounting.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $743.2M, representing a 12.7% margin, up 50 basis points from 12.2% a year ago. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $169M (12.2% of sales), a year-over-year increase versus the quarter prior (Q4 adjusted EBITDA up ~$5M, ~3.2%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s 2026 guidance targets sales of $10.3–$10.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.3–$1.4 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $235–$325 million (with ~243 million fully diluted shares), built on regional production assumptions of ~15M North America, 17M Europe, 33M China and ~93M global units (GM large pickup/SUV ~1.3–1.4M). They expect Dauch to contribute roughly $600 million (≈12.1% margin) in 2026, forecast synergy P&L flow‑through of $50–$75 million in 2026 toward a $300 million synergy target (majority realized by end of year three and >$100M run‑rate by end of year one), and a third consecutive year of margin improvement. Modeling assumptions include variable contribution margin of 25–30%, CapEx of 4.5–5% of sales, cash pension contributions of $40–$50 million, a ~30% tax rate (taxes $150–$170M), restructuring cash outlays of $110–$150 million, synergy cash costs of $100–$125 million, equity income from the China JV of $65–$75 million, Q1 as the weakest quarter, and an estimated day‑one post‑close net debt of roughly $4.2 billion.Dauch Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.84B | 6.12B | 6.08B | 5.80B | 5.16B |
| Gross Profit | 625.00M | 741.40M | 624.30M | 704.90M | 722.70M |
| EBITDA | 695.50M | 718.50M | 664.40M | 732.90M | 740.70M |
| Net Income | -19.70M | 35.00M | -33.60M | 64.30M | 5.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.67B | 5.06B | 5.36B | 5.47B | 5.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 708.90M | 552.90M | 519.90M | 511.50M | 530.20M |
| Total Debt | 4.17B | 2.74B | 2.89B | 3.13B | 3.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.03B | 4.50B | 4.75B | 4.84B | 5.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 640.00M | 562.80M | 604.90M | 627.30M | 457.80M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 155.10M | 207.40M | 201.50M | 277.50M | 357.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 411.60M | 455.40M | 396.10M | 448.90M | 538.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -169.60M | -254.80M | -184.50M | -243.00M | -161.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.40B | -156.20M | -205.50M | -217.20M | -401.40M |
Dauch Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
5.77
Price Trends
6.60
Negative
6.69
Negative
6.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Negative
46.65
Neutral
52.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.65, below the 50-day MA of 6.60, and below the 200-day MA of 6.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DCH.
Dauch Corporation Risk Analysis
Dauch Corporation disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dauch Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dauch Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.59B | 12.87 | 13.90% | 0.57% | -4.03% | -39.51% | |
63 Neutral | $3.69B | 11.23 | -39.65% | 1.49% | -1.09% | 56.16% | |
62 Neutral | $11.33B | 35.20 | 4.80% | 1.24% | 0.08% | -83.69% | |
62 Neutral | $3.96B | 38.91 | -2.91% | 1.70% | -18.23% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
48 Neutral | $1.61B | -17.14 | -17.47% | ― | -1.04% | -1510.41% | |
45 Neutral | $1.37B | -37.71 | -3.00% | ― | -6.02% | 42.35% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DCH
Dauch Corporation
5.77
2.67
86.13%
BWA
BorgWarner
54.97
29.15
112.90%
DAN
Dana Incorporated
36.13
25.56
241.78%
VC
Visteon
96.65
29.15
43.18%
ADNT
Adient
20.50
10.10
97.12%
GTX
Garrett Motion
19.41
10.77
124.57%
Dauch Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Dauch Corporation Expands Leadership Team and Executive Incentives
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Dauch strengthened its leadership bench by appointing Fiona MacAulay and Simon Mackenzie Smith as independent directors and naming former GKN Automotive chief executive Markus Bannert as vice president of metal forming. The co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.