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Crane NXT (CXT)
NYSE:CXT
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Crane NXT
(NYSE:CXT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
â–²(13.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening profitability/cash flow trends and higher leverage in the financials. Offsetting this, technical momentum is supportive and the earnings call outlook is generally constructive with mid-single-digit growth guidance and strong backlog, though near-term margin and acquisition-related headwinds limit upside. Valuation is reasonable but not notably cheap and the dividend is modest.
Positive Factors
Diversified recurring revenue model
Crane NXT earns revenue from product sales plus transaction fees, subscriptions and maintenance across multiple end markets. This mix creates recurring cash streams and cross‑sector exposure, reducing single‑market cyclicality and supporting steadier revenue and service aftermarket margins over the medium term.
Strong backlog and product wins in currency
Material order wins and sizable backlog in the currency business provide multi‑period revenue visibility. Sustained commercial wins for micro‑optics and SAT backlog growth help justify capacity investments and reduce revenue execution risk, enabling durable top‑line support as production ramps.
Management focus on cash conversion and disciplined allocation
Management’s explicit FCF conversion target and stated intent to delever indicate disciplined capital allocation. High targeted conversion and planned debt reduction should restore balance sheet flexibility over time, while modest CapEx guidance (~3%–5% of sales) signals investments aimed at sustaining growth without excessive cash burn.
Negative Factors
Significant margin compression
Margins have contracted sharply due to mix shifts, acquisitions and incremental operating costs for capacity expansion. Sustained margin restoration requires operational productivity gains and favorable mix; failure to realize these gains would structurally reduce earnings power and limit cash available for reinvestment or debt paydown.
Weakened cash generation and lower free cash flow
A sizable decline in OCF and a 32% fall in FCF indicate softer cash conversion of earnings. Persistently weaker cash generation reduces flexibility for capex, acquisitions or debt reduction, increasing reliance on external financing during investment cycles and heightening execution risk if cash performance does not normalize.
Rising leverage and acquisition execution risk
Higher absolute debt and increased leverage reflect acquisition financings and Antares-related draws. Elevated leverage raises interest and refinancing sensitivity while integration costs and non‑operating expenses tied to acquisitions add execution risk. This combination constrains flexibility until synergies and deleveraging occur.
Crane NXT (CXT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.04B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)494.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth9.30%
EPS Growth-12.55%
CountryUS
Employees4,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.27
Shares Outstanding57,422,040
10 Day Avg. Volume587,344
30 Day Avg. Volume494,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.63
P/FCF Ratio13.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.60Price Target Upside37.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Crane NXT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCrane NXT, Co. focuses on payment and merchandising technologies. It indents to offer electronic equipment and associated software leveraging extensive, and proprietary core capabilities, including payment verification and authentication, as well as automation solutions, field service solutions, remote diagnostics, and productivity enhancing software solutions. The company is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyCrane NXT generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary payment processing systems and software solutions, which cater to a wide range of industries. The company also earns income from subscription-based services and maintenance contracts related to its technology products. Key revenue streams include transaction fees for payment processing, licensing fees for software usage, and ongoing support services. Additionally, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers enhance CXT's market reach and contribute to its earnings by expanding its customer base and enhancing service offerings.
Crane NXT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive outlook: the company delivered strong top-line growth, excellent cash conversion, exceeded currency win targets, expanded backlog, and set mid-2026 milestones for the Antares Vision acquisition. Management is investing to capture sustained international currency demand and expects margin recovery and synergy realization in 2026. Offsetting these positives are notable near-term margin pressures in SAT, incremental costs and FX headwinds tied to rapid ramping of international currency capacity, CPI softness (particularly vending due to tariffs), and acquisition-related expenses and financing draws that create near-term earnings/interest effects. Overall, leadership frames these headwinds as manageable and temporary given backlog strength and planned productivity improvements.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 sales of $477M, up ~20% year-over-year (driven by acquisitions and Crane Currency); full-year sales of approximately $1.7B, up ~11% year-over-year; Q4 core sales up ~5% and full-year core sales growth ~1%.
Robust Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~25% in Q4 and ~24% for the full year; delivered adjusted EPS of $1.27 in Q4 and $4.06 for the full year; adjusted free cash flow conversion ~135% in Q4 and ~94% for the full year.
Currency Business Outperformance and Wins
Crane Currency achieved 20 new micro-optics denomination wins in 2025 (exceeding target of 10–15), including five denominations for Fiji; organic backlog up (Aaron cited >30% YoY) and SAT backlog reported up >50% YoY, providing strong visibility for 2026.
Acquisitions and Strategic Investments
Closed De La Rue Authentication acquisition in May 2025 and completed an initial equity investment (~32%) in Antares Vision in Q4 2025 with regulatory approval to launch a mandatory tender—expected to consolidate >50% ownership in Q1 and take private mid-2026; these expand offerings in authentication, life sciences, and track-and-trace.
2026 Financial Guidance
Full-year sales growth guidance of 4%–6% for 2026; adjusted segment EBITDA margin expected ~28% (approximately flat YoY); adjusted EPS guidance $4.10–$4.40; adjusted free cash flow conversion targeted 90%–110%.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Ended year with net leverage ~2.3x; secured a ~$500M term loan and drew ~$130M for Antares investment; plan to use strong free cash flow to pay down debt and maintain ~2.3x net leverage by year-end 2026; declared a 6% increase to the annual dividend.
Operational Capacity and Growth Investments
Investing to expand international currency capacity: moving to 24/7 operations, adding micro-optics lines in Nashua and Malta, increasing design staff; expect currency CapEx to be ~7% of currency revenue in 2026 (company-wide CapEx 3%–5% of sales) and modest incremental OpEx (~$4M) and SAT costs (~$4M) to support growth.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure in SAT and FY Operating Margins
Adjusted segment operating margin declined ~120 bps in Q4 and ~260 bps for the full year; SAT saw a significant margin decline (approximately 420 bps in Q4 and ~380 bps for the full year) driven by mix, acquisitions, and incremental costs.
Incremental Costs to Meet Currency Demand
Q4 and 2025 margins were partially offset by additional costs to meet international currency demand including hiring/training production staff, higher freight, procurement of third-party substrates, selected outsourcing of banknote printing, and investments in next-generation micro-optic development; company expects ~$4M incremental SAT costs in 2026 and ~$4M of added OpEx.
Unfavorable FX and Mix Impacts
Unfavorable foreign exchange affected margins as manufacturing costs were incurred in SEK and EUR for international currency production; unfavorable mix from specific backlog shipments also reduced margin expansion in SAT.
CPI Softness and Tariff-Driven Order Delays
CPI core sales were flat in Q4 and declined ~4% for the full year; vending end market experienced low-single-digit declines driven by tariffs and customer order deferrals, contributing to expected flat CPI sales in 2026 and a weaker Q1 seasonal start.
Phasing and Near-Term Profitability Headwinds
Revenue and profitability are skewed to the back half of 2026; Q1 guidance shows mid-single-digit decline in CPI and first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of ~19% (flat YoY but below full-year levels) due to incremental costs and timing; international currency faces a tough H2 2026 comp from exceptional Q4 2025.
Acquisition-Related Financial Impact and Execution Risk
Antares Vision transaction required drawing debt (~$130M drawn, balance to be drawn in 2026), and non-operating expenses guidance (~$60M) include Antares interest and noncontrolling interest—creating near-term interest expense and integration/timing risk until consolidation is complete; acquisitions also reduced adjusted margins in 2025.
Higher Near-Term CapEx and Investment Spend
Planned capacity expansion increases currency CapEx to ~7% of currency revenue in 2026 and overall OpEx/CapEx commitments that may constrain near-term margin expansion until productivity gains are realized (management expects these costs to reduce substantially in 2027).
Company Guidance
Crane NXT’s 2026 guidance calls for full‑year sales growth of 4%–6% (described as mid‑single digits elsewhere), with SAT up high single‑digits (U.S. currency high single‑digit, international low single‑digit), Crane Authentication mid‑single‑digit core growth, and CPI flat (service +mid‑single‑digits, hardware flat, vending down low‑single‑digits). The company will report adjusted EBITDA (segment EBITDA margin ~28%, roughly flat YoY) and expects full‑year company adjusted EBITDA ≈25% (CPI ≈30%, SAT ≈25%, SAT margin +120 bps YoY); corporate expenses ≈$58M; non‑operating expenses ≈$60M; tax rate ≈21.5%; adjusted EPS $4.10–$4.40; adjusted free cash flow conversion 90%–110%; year‑end net leverage ≈2.3x; total CapEx 3%–5% of sales (currency CapEx ≈7% of currency revenue); ~$4M incremental SAT cost and ~$4M additional OpEx for micro‑optics. Guidance includes interest only on the initial ~32% Antares Vision stake (consolidation after >50% ownership), and Q1 is expected to see mid‑teens revenue growth (SAT +45%–50% in Q1), CPI down mid‑single‑digits, and Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin ≈19%.Crane NXT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Moderate revenue growth (TTM +4.9%) is being offset by meaningful margin compression and lower earnings (TTM net income down vs 2024), weaker cash generation (TTM OCF and FCF down; FCF -32%), and rising leverage (debt up; debt-to-equity ~0.91). Overall financial health remains serviceable, but profitability/cash-flow trajectory is the key concern.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose 4.9% to $1.66B, showing steady top-line momentum. However, profitability has weakened versus prior years: TTM gross margin fell to ~30.3% (from ~44.7% in 2024) and net margin declined to ~8.8% (from ~12.4% in 2024), with EBIT and EBITDA margins also stepping down. Net income decreased to $145.1M TTM (from $184.1M in 2024), signaling pressure on earnings quality despite continued sales growth.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased: total debt rose to $1.14B TTM (from $813.9M in 2024) and debt-to-equity moved up to ~0.91 (from ~0.76). Equity also grew to $1.25B, providing a reasonable capital base, but returns have cooled with return on equity at ~13.6% TTM (down from ~17.3% in 2024). Overall, the balance sheet remains serviceable, but the direction of leverage is a clear risk factor.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened in the most recent period: operating cash flow fell to $160.6M TTM (from $214.1M in 2024) and free cash flow dropped to $117.4M with a sharp -32.0% free-cash-flow decline. Free cash flow covered about 73% of net income TTM, which is decent, but the lower operating cash flow relative to reported profits (coverage ratio ~0.28 TTM vs ~0.38 in 2024) suggests softer cash conversion and less financial flexibility.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.66B | 1.49B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.35B |
| Gross Profit | 703.80M | 665.10M | 654.10M | 626.20M | 598.90M |
| EBITDA | 370.10M | 361.00M | 368.00M | 383.30M | 365.80M |
| Net Income | 145.10M | 184.10M | 188.30M | 204.90M | 178.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.12B | 2.39B | 2.13B | 2.13B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.80M | 165.80M | 227.20M | 230.70M | 478.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 813.90M | 694.70M | 881.20M | 944.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.86B | 1.32B | 1.17B | 1.35B | 2.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.26B | 1.06B | 964.00M | 783.80M | 1.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.30M | 168.70M | 245.20M | 284.70M | 444.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 241.50M | 214.10M | 276.30M | 306.00M | 498.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -549.00M | -318.00M | -31.10M | -21.30M | -300.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 363.60M | 62.10M | -252.50M | -135.00M | -557.90M |
Crane NXT Technical Analysis
Negative
52.10
Price Trends
50.87
Positive
56.56
Negative
56.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.45
Positive
49.36
Neutral
34.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.23, above the 50-day MA of 50.87, and below the 200-day MA of 56.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CXT.
Crane NXT Risk Analysis
Crane NXT disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crane NXT reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Crane NXT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.67B | 23.57 | 21.55% | 1.09% | 8.75% | 64.82% | |
70 Outperform | $4.05B | 28.22 | 10.89% | 1.06% | 5.06% | -22.73% | |
68 Neutral | $3.77B | 37.05 | 11.32% | 0.46% | -0.96% | -11.55% | |
68 Neutral | $3.08B | 56.84 | 7.72% | 0.57% | 18.51% | -28.69% | |
66 Neutral | $5.01B | 40.33 | 12.02% | 0.26% | 14.87% | 15.63% | |
64 Neutral | $3.04B | 21.16 | 13.54% | 1.42% | 9.30% | -12.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.