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Crane NXT (CXT)
NYSE:CXT
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Crane NXT
(NYSE:CXT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
â–²(11.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening profitability, softer cash generation, and rising leverage in the latest TTM results. This is partially offset by a supportive earnings-call outlook (mid-single-digit growth guidance, targeted strong cash conversion, and strong backlog/wins), while technicals and valuation appear mixed with limited downside cushion.
Positive Factors
Strong currency backlog and product wins
Large micro-optics wins and materially higher backlog give multi-quarter revenue visibility and validate differentiated currency technology. These structural wins support planned capacity investments, improving the odds of sustainable top-line growth and margin recovery as scale and production efficiency are realized.
Diversified, recurring revenue model
A mix of product sales, transaction fees, subscriptions and maintenance creates recurring cash streams and customer stickiness. This diversification reduces cyclicality, supports steady cash generation over time, and allows predictable maintenance of service revenue while product cycles and wins drive incremental growth.
Explicit management targets for cash and margins
Management's explicit targets for mid-single-digit growth and very high FCF conversion indicate disciplined capital allocation and a focus on converting earnings into cash. If achieved, this supports deleveraging, funds further strategic investments, and demonstrates credible operational plans rather than relying solely on short-term revenue spikes.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and debt load
Material increase in debt reduces financial flexibility and raises interest burden, especially with acquisition-related draws. Higher leverage amplifies execution risk for integration and capacity builds, making the company more sensitive to cash-flow variability and limiting options for opportunistic investments or shareholder returns.
Weaker cash generation and FCF decline
A sharp drop in operating cash flow and a 32% decline in free cash flow weaken the company's ability to service debt, fund capex for capacity expansion, and sustain dividends. Persistent weaker cash conversion would stress liquidity and could force slower deleveraging or higher reliance on external financing.
Significant margin deterioration
Substantial compression in gross and net margins reflects mix shifts, acquisition dilution, incremental international production costs and FX effects. If structural, lower margins will depress returns and cash flow generation; recovery depends on successful productivity gains and integration, which carry execution risk and timing uncertainty.
Crane NXT (CXT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.77B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)494.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth9.30%
EPS Growth-12.55%
CountryUS
Employees4,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.27
Shares Outstanding57,443,573
10 Day Avg. Volume587,344
30 Day Avg. Volume494,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.63
P/FCF Ratio13.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.25Price Target Upside40.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.73B
Crane NXT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCrane NXT, Co. focuses on payment and merchandising technologies. It indents to offer electronic equipment and associated software leveraging extensive, and proprietary core capabilities, including payment verification and authentication, as well as automation solutions, field service solutions, remote diagnostics, and productivity enhancing software solutions. The company is based in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyCrane NXT generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary payment processing systems and software solutions, which cater to a wide range of industries. The company also earns income from subscription-based services and maintenance contracts related to its technology products. Key revenue streams include transaction fees for payment processing, licensing fees for software usage, and ongoing support services. Additionally, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers enhance CXT's market reach and contribute to its earnings by expanding its customer base and enhancing service offerings.
Crane NXT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive outlook: the company delivered strong top-line growth, excellent cash conversion, exceeded currency win targets, expanded backlog, and set mid-2026 milestones for the Antares Vision acquisition. Management is investing to capture sustained international currency demand and expects margin recovery and synergy realization in 2026. Offsetting these positives are notable near-term margin pressures in SAT, incremental costs and FX headwinds tied to rapid ramping of international currency capacity, CPI softness (particularly vending due to tariffs), and acquisition-related expenses and financing draws that create near-term earnings/interest effects. Overall, leadership frames these headwinds as manageable and temporary given backlog strength and planned productivity improvements.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 sales of $477M, up ~20% year-over-year (driven by acquisitions and Crane Currency); full-year sales of approximately $1.7B, up ~11% year-over-year; Q4 core sales up ~5% and full-year core sales growth ~1%.
Robust Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~25% in Q4 and ~24% for the full year; delivered adjusted EPS of $1.27 in Q4 and $4.06 for the full year; adjusted free cash flow conversion ~135% in Q4 and ~94% for the full year.
Currency Business Outperformance and Wins
Crane Currency achieved 20 new micro-optics denomination wins in 2025 (exceeding target of 10–15), including five denominations for Fiji; organic backlog up (Aaron cited >30% YoY) and SAT backlog reported up >50% YoY, providing strong visibility for 2026.
Acquisitions and Strategic Investments
Closed De La Rue Authentication acquisition in May 2025 and completed an initial equity investment (~32%) in Antares Vision in Q4 2025 with regulatory approval to launch a mandatory tender—expected to consolidate >50% ownership in Q1 and take private mid-2026; these expand offerings in authentication, life sciences, and track-and-trace.
2026 Financial Guidance
Full-year sales growth guidance of 4%–6% for 2026; adjusted segment EBITDA margin expected ~28% (approximately flat YoY); adjusted EPS guidance $4.10–$4.40; adjusted free cash flow conversion targeted 90%–110%.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Ended year with net leverage ~2.3x; secured a ~$500M term loan and drew ~$130M for Antares investment; plan to use strong free cash flow to pay down debt and maintain ~2.3x net leverage by year-end 2026; declared a 6% increase to the annual dividend.
Operational Capacity and Growth Investments
Investing to expand international currency capacity: moving to 24/7 operations, adding micro-optics lines in Nashua and Malta, increasing design staff; expect currency CapEx to be ~7% of currency revenue in 2026 (company-wide CapEx 3%–5% of sales) and modest incremental OpEx (~$4M) and SAT costs (~$4M) to support growth.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure in SAT and FY Operating Margins
Adjusted segment operating margin declined ~120 bps in Q4 and ~260 bps for the full year; SAT saw a significant margin decline (approximately 420 bps in Q4 and ~380 bps for the full year) driven by mix, acquisitions, and incremental costs.
Incremental Costs to Meet Currency Demand
Q4 and 2025 margins were partially offset by additional costs to meet international currency demand including hiring/training production staff, higher freight, procurement of third-party substrates, selected outsourcing of banknote printing, and investments in next-generation micro-optic development; company expects ~$4M incremental SAT costs in 2026 and ~$4M of added OpEx.
Unfavorable FX and Mix Impacts
Unfavorable foreign exchange affected margins as manufacturing costs were incurred in SEK and EUR for international currency production; unfavorable mix from specific backlog shipments also reduced margin expansion in SAT.
CPI Softness and Tariff-Driven Order Delays
CPI core sales were flat in Q4 and declined ~4% for the full year; vending end market experienced low-single-digit declines driven by tariffs and customer order deferrals, contributing to expected flat CPI sales in 2026 and a weaker Q1 seasonal start.
Phasing and Near-Term Profitability Headwinds
Revenue and profitability are skewed to the back half of 2026; Q1 guidance shows mid-single-digit decline in CPI and first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of ~19% (flat YoY but below full-year levels) due to incremental costs and timing; international currency faces a tough H2 2026 comp from exceptional Q4 2025.
Acquisition-Related Financial Impact and Execution Risk
Antares Vision transaction required drawing debt (~$130M drawn, balance to be drawn in 2026), and non-operating expenses guidance (~$60M) include Antares interest and noncontrolling interest—creating near-term interest expense and integration/timing risk until consolidation is complete; acquisitions also reduced adjusted margins in 2025.
Higher Near-Term CapEx and Investment Spend
Planned capacity expansion increases currency CapEx to ~7% of currency revenue in 2026 and overall OpEx/CapEx commitments that may constrain near-term margin expansion until productivity gains are realized (management expects these costs to reduce substantially in 2027).
Company Guidance
Crane NXT’s 2026 guidance calls for full‑year sales growth of 4%–6% (described as mid‑single digits elsewhere), with SAT up high single‑digits (U.S. currency high single‑digit, international low single‑digit), Crane Authentication mid‑single‑digit core growth, and CPI flat (service +mid‑single‑digits, hardware flat, vending down low‑single‑digits). The company will report adjusted EBITDA (segment EBITDA margin ~28%, roughly flat YoY) and expects full‑year company adjusted EBITDA ≈25% (CPI ≈30%, SAT ≈25%, SAT margin +120 bps YoY); corporate expenses ≈$58M; non‑operating expenses ≈$60M; tax rate ≈21.5%; adjusted EPS $4.10–$4.40; adjusted free cash flow conversion 90%–110%; year‑end net leverage ≈2.3x; total CapEx 3%–5% of sales (currency CapEx ≈7% of currency revenue); ~$4M incremental SAT cost and ~$4M additional OpEx for micro‑optics. Guidance includes interest only on the initial ~32% Antares Vision stake (consolidation after >50% ownership), and Q1 is expected to see mid‑teens revenue growth (SAT +45%–50% in Q1), CPI down mid‑single‑digits, and Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin ≈19%.Crane NXT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Moderate revenue growth (TTM +4.9% to $1.66B) is being offset by a clear deterioration in quality: gross and net margins fell sharply versus 2024, TTM net income declined ($145.1M vs $184.1M), operating cash flow and free cash flow dropped (FCF -32% YoY), and leverage increased (debt up to $1.14B; D/E ~0.91).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose 4.9% to $1.66B, showing steady top-line momentum. However, profitability has weakened versus prior years: TTM gross margin fell to ~30.3% (from ~44.7% in 2024) and net margin declined to ~8.8% (from ~12.4% in 2024), with EBIT and EBITDA margins also stepping down. Net income decreased to $145.1M TTM (from $184.1M in 2024), signaling pressure on earnings quality despite continued sales growth.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased: total debt rose to $1.14B TTM (from $813.9M in 2024) and debt-to-equity moved up to ~0.91 (from ~0.76). Equity also grew to $1.25B, providing a reasonable capital base, but returns have cooled with return on equity at ~13.6% TTM (down from ~17.3% in 2024). Overall, the balance sheet remains serviceable, but the direction of leverage is a clear risk factor.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened in the most recent period: operating cash flow fell to $160.6M TTM (from $214.1M in 2024) and free cash flow dropped to $117.4M with a sharp -32.0% free-cash-flow decline. Free cash flow covered about 73% of net income TTM, which is decent, but the lower operating cash flow relative to reported profits (coverage ratio ~0.28 TTM vs ~0.38 in 2024) suggests softer cash conversion and less financial flexibility.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.66B | 1.49B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.35B |
| Gross Profit | 703.80M | 665.10M | 654.10M | 626.20M | 598.90M |
| EBITDA | 347.90M | 361.00M | 368.00M | 383.30M | 365.80M |
| Net Income | 145.10M | 184.10M | 188.30M | 204.90M | 178.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.12B | 2.39B | 2.13B | 2.13B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.80M | 165.80M | 227.20M | 230.70M | 478.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 813.90M | 694.70M | 881.20M | 944.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.86B | 1.32B | 1.17B | 1.35B | 2.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.26B | 1.06B | 964.00M | 783.80M | 1.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.30M | 168.70M | 245.20M | 284.70M | 444.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 241.50M | 214.10M | 276.30M | 306.00M | 498.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -549.00M | -318.00M | -31.10M | -21.30M | -300.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 363.60M | 62.10M | -252.50M | -135.00M | -557.90M |
Crane NXT Technical Analysis
Negative
48.56
Price Trends
50.41
Negative
55.01
Negative
56.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.79
Positive
38.76
Neutral
22.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.69, below the 50-day MA of 50.41, and below the 200-day MA of 56.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CXT.
Crane NXT Risk Analysis
Crane NXT disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Crane NXT reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Crane NXT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.62B | 21.55 | 21.55% | 1.09% | 8.75% | 64.82% | |
71 Outperform | $4.06B | 33.07 | 11.32% | 0.46% | -0.96% | -11.55% | |
70 Outperform | $4.43B | 29.38 | 10.89% | 1.06% | 5.06% | -22.73% | |
68 Neutral | $3.21B | 308.57 | 7.72% | 0.57% | 18.51% | -28.69% | |
66 Neutral | $4.59B | 118.57 | 12.02% | 0.26% | 14.87% | 15.63% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $2.77B | 18.62 | 13.54% | 1.42% | 9.30% | -12.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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CSW
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Crane NXT Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Crane NXT Hosts Investor Day, Updates Strategic Outlook
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Crane NXT, Co. held an Investor Day featuring formal presentations from its management team, starting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time and webcast until approximately noon, with a replay available for one year. In conjunction with the event, the company posted an updated corporate presentation on its investor relations website, offering new information on its business, 2026 financial outlook, and 2028 targets, underscoring its efforts to give investors clearer visibility into its medium-term performance expectations and strategic direction.
The most recent analyst rating on (CXT) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Crane NXT stock, see the CXT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.