Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.40B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 784.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: 7.39%
• EPS Growth: 34.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,619
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 226,625,930
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 748,621
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 784,820
• PEG Ratio: -2.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.46
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 21.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.03B

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

CTOS scores low primarily due to strained financial performance (high leverage, recent losses, and consistently negative free cash flow) and weak technicals (downtrend with negative momentum). The latest earnings call is a meaningful offset, with upbeat 2026 guidance and a clearer path to deleveraging and free cash flow, but it has not yet translated into stronger reported fundamentals or price trend.

Positive Factors

High rental utilization

Sustained high rental utilization creates recurring, less cyclical revenue and supports higher rental gross margins and cash returns. With an on‑rent base (OEC) that grew and a de‑aged fleet, rental economics should sustainably bolster margins and predictable cash flow over the medium term.

Record revenue and EBITDA

Consistent top‑line and adjusted EBITDA expansion demonstrates demand resilience across sales, rentals, and services. Strong backlog and order growth provide forward visibility into equipment sales and services, supporting multi‑stream revenue durability and better operating leverage going forward.

Clear deleveraging and FCF plan

Management's plan to cut net rental CapEx, reduce inventory, and target meaningful leverage reduction addresses the central financial weakness. Explicit FCF and leverage targets, backed by ABL availability and inventory actions, improve the odds of durable balance‑sheet repair and funding flexibility.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated leverage materially increases refinancing and interest sensitivity, constraining strategic optionality. High net debt limits the company's ability to fund working capital or opportunistic investments, and raises downside risk if rental or equipment sales slow or rates rise.

Persistently negative free cash flow

Chronic negative free cash flow forces reliance on external financing and asset disposals to fund operations and fleet investment. That weakens long‑term self‑funding, lengthens the path to sustainable deleveraging, and makes the company vulnerable to credit market tightening.

Profitability volatility & sales pressure

Intermittent GAAP losses and segment‑level pricing/ timing pressures undermine earnings durability. Reliance on cyclical TES sales and exposure to delivery timing, inventory swings, and pricing compressions can produce volatile margins and impede sustainable return on capital.

Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, other infrastructure-related industries in North America. It operates through Equipment Rental Solutions, Truck and Equipment Sales, and Aftermarket Parts and Services segments. The Equipment Rental Solutions owns new and used specialty equipment, including truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, digger derricks, and other machinery and equipment. The Truck and Equipment Sales segment offers new equipment for sale to be used for end-markets which can be modified to meet customers specific needs. The Aftermarket Parts and Services segment provides truck and equipment maintenance and repair services as well as sale of specialized aftermarket parts. The company was formerly known as Nesco Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. in April 2021. Custom Truck One Source, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

CTOS generates revenue through multiple, complementary streams tied to specialty work equipment. (1) Equipment sales: the company sells new and used vocational trucks and specialty equipment; revenue is recognized at the point of sale, and sales can include CTOS-configured or upfitted units tailored to specific applications (e.g., utility/telecom field service). (2) Equipment rentals: CTOS rents trucks and specialty equipment to customers on a short- and longer-term basis; this produces recurring rental revenue and helps balance cyclicality in new equipment demand. (3) Parts, service, and maintenance: CTOS earns aftermarket revenue by supplying replacement parts and performing service/repair work that keeps customer fleets operating; this stream can be supported by the company’s rental and installed base of sold equipment. (4) Upfitting/manufacturing and customization services: CTOS earns revenue from configuring, assembling, or modifying equipment to customer specifications (including installing specialized bodies, tool packages, and other vocational components) either as part of a sale or as a standalone service. (5) Disposition/remarketing of used fleet: equipment cycled out of the rental fleet (and other used equipment sources) can be sold, contributing additional sales revenue and helping manage fleet economics. Information on specific major partnerships, customer concentration, or precise segment-level contribution is null.

Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial fundamentals are constrained by high leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~3.2x in TTM), a return to net losses in 2024 and TTM, and persistently negative free cash flow despite a TTM rebound in operating cash flow. Stable gross margins and positive EBIT margins help, but funding flexibility and earnings durability remain key risks.

Income Statement

Profitability is mixed. Gross margin has been fairly steady around ~19–22% since 2022, but bottom-line results weakened: profitable in 2022–2023, then back to losses in 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Operating profitability (EBIT margin) remains positive in 2024 and TTM, but revenue momentum has turned negative (down modestly in 2024, and the TTM revenue figure appears to reflect a sharp drop versus prior periods), raising questions about near-term demand and earnings durability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the central issue. Debt is high relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~2.1x in 2022, rising to ~2.8x in 2024 and ~3.2x in TTM), which reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to downturns and refinancing costs. Equity is positive in recent years, but returns on equity are negative in 2024 and TTM (consistent with net losses). Total assets have grown versus earlier years, yet the balance sheet remains meaningfully geared.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow improved materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024, but free cash flow is deeply negative in every period shown, indicating heavy reinvestment/capex and/or working-capital demands. The relationship between operating cash flow and earnings is not consistently supportive (with weak coverage in 2024 and stronger in TTM), and sustained negative free cash flow keeps reliance on funding and balance-sheet capacity elevated.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.94B	1.80B	1.87B	1.57B	1.17B
Gross Profit	367.36M	343.43M	410.09M	340.39M	165.65M
EBITDA	409.76M	380.66M	414.78M	359.12M	104.84M
Net Income	-31.05M	-28.66M	50.71M	38.91M	-181.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.74B	3.50B	3.37B	2.94B	2.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.27M	3.81M	10.31M	14.36M	35.90M
Total Debt	2.42B	2.43B	2.20B	1.83B	1.60B
Total Liabilities	2.93B	2.64B	2.45B	2.05B	1.83B
Stockholders Equity	809.10M	861.31M	917.20M	888.44M	858.51M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-107.59M	-353.63M	-511.64M	-358.74M	-31.19M
Operating Cash Flow	349.39M	44.68M	-147.45M	-17.95M	157.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-282.46M	-187.49M	-176.60M	-218.94M	-1.43B
Financing Cash Flow	-64.55M	135.58M	319.44M	217.82M	1.30B

Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.85, below the 50-day MA of 6.61, and above the 200-day MA of 5.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTOS.

Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.58B	12.96	13.21%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
WLFC	63 Neutral	$1.14B	8.05	16.94%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
R	61 Neutral	$7.51B	16.03	16.36%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
HRI	58 Neutral	$3.65B	4,644.29	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%
WSC	51 Neutral	$3.22B	-64.81	-5.35%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
CTOS	47 Neutral	$1.40B	-42.03	-3.00%	―	7.39%	34.57%

Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events

Custom Truck One Source Reports Record 2025 Revenue Growth

On March 10, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $528.2 million, up 1.4% year over year, and record full-year 2025 revenue of $1.94 billion, a 7.9% increase from 2024, while quarterly net income declined to $20.9 million and the company posted a full-year net loss of $31.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18.4% in the quarter and 12.9% for the year, rental fleet utilization reached its highest level in nearly three years at 83.6%, sales backlog climbed to $335.3 million, and management highlighted strong growth in the Equipment Rental Solutions and Truck and Equipment Sales segments, improved working capital and inventory reduction, and favorable infrastructure and electrification demand trends expected to support further growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTOS) stock is a Sell with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Custom Truck One Source stock, see the CTOS Stock Forecast page.

Custom Truck One Source announces chief accounting officer resignation

On December 19, 2025, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. announced that Chief Accounting Officer R. Todd Barrett had submitted his resignation, effective January 16, 2026, marking a planned leadership change in the company’s finance function. The company stated that Barrett’s departure did not arise from any disagreement over its operations, policies, or practices, suggesting the transition is not tied to operational or governance disputes for stakeholders to worry about.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTOS) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Custom Truck One Source stock, see the CTOS Stock Forecast page.