Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN
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Coinbase Global
(NASDAQ:COIN)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$185.00
▼(-10.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance with strong cash generation and high gross margins, tempered by weakening revenue/return momentum. Technicals are improving but remain below the 200-day trend, and valuation is a drag due to the negative P/E and no dividend support. Earnings-call takeaways are mixed: strong liquidity and diversification progress, but near-term results and revenue remain sensitive to market conditions and include restructuring impacts.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained, sizable free cash flow (TTM ~$2.8B, up ~15%) provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, buybacks, retire convertible debt, and weather crypto cycle downdrafts without immediate external financing, supporting multi-quarter strategic execution.
Negative Factors
Revenue weakness and cyclicality
Material revenue declines (TTM ~-9.7%; Q1 -21% QoQ) underscore heavy sensitivity to crypto market activity. Persistent top-line cyclicality limits revenue predictability, constrains reinvestment pacing and makes multi-quarter growth planning and margin recovery dependent on external market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained, sizable free cash flow (TTM ~$2.8B, up ~15%) provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, buybacks, retire convertible debt, and weather crypto cycle downdrafts without immediate external financing, supporting multi-quarter strategic execution.
Read all positive factors
Coinbase Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Trading Volume
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoinbase Global (COIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)62.5
Beta (1Y)2.80
Revenue Growth-4.24%
EPS Growth-43.98%
CountryUS
Employees4,951
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.27
Shares Outstanding222,426,880
10 Day Avg. Volume9,413,105
30 Day Avg. Volume9,890,409
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)3.98
Price to Sales (P/S)8.19
P/FCF Ratio24.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda36.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$243.36Price Target Upside17.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.08B
Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidi...
How the Company Makes Money
Coinbase primarily makes money through transaction-based fees and spread on crypto trading executed on its platform, especially from retail customers; these fees are typically charged as a percentage of the trade and/or via a quoted spread between...
Coinbase Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed quarter: Coinbase showed clear execution and product momentum—market share gains, strong USDC growth, product diversification with high early revenue run rates (derivatives, prediction markets), positive adjusted EBITDA and a strong balance sheet. However, macro-driven declines materially pressured top-line revenue and GAAP profitability in the quarter (total revenue down 21% QoQ; quarterly net loss $394M), and certain revenue lines (consumer, institutional, blockchain rewards) fell significantly. The company is actively cutting costs and investing in AI-driven productivity, positioning for longer-term growth even as near-term market conditions remain challenging.Positive Updates
Solid Revenue Mix and Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Total revenue of $1.4B in Q1 2026 with positive adjusted EBITDA of $303M (13th consecutive quarter). Subscription & services contributed $584M, demonstrating recurring revenue strength and diversification away from pure trading.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Volume Pressure from Market Weakness
Total revenue declined 21% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a softer market. Total crypto market cap and total crypto trading volume were both down >20% QoQ.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Revenue Mix and Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Total revenue of $1.4B in Q1 2026 with positive adjusted EBITDA of $303M (13th consecutive quarter). Subscription & services contributed $584M, demonstrating recurring revenue strength and diversification away from pure trading.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q2 subscription and services revenue of $565M–$645M, Q2 technology & development plus G&A expenses of $820M–$870M (down ~4%–9% from Q1), and a separate Q2 restructuring charge of $50M–$60M; for full-year 2026 adjusted expenses it expects $4.3B–$4.6B (roughly $500M below the Q4’25 annualized exit midpoint) and noted that absent USDC rewards growth 2026 adjusted OpEx would be roughly flat to 2025. Management reiterated strong liquidity to execute on this plan—Q1 ended with >$10B cash and $12B total resources, plans to retire the $1.3B convertible notes due June 1, and showed buyback activity of ~6M shares for $1.1B (cumulative buybacks offset ~90% of shares issued since Q4’24). They also said Q1 results and operational momentum (Q1 revenue $1.4B, net loss $394M, adjusted EBITDA $303M; average USDC held $19B; stablecoin revenue $305M) were within or better than prior ranges while productivity levers (pull requests per engineer +~80% YoY; integration test coverage 3x in six months) support the expense trajectory.Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.81B | 7.18B | 6.56B | 3.11B | 3.19B | 7.84B |
| Gross Profit | 4.41B | 5.36B | 4.91B | 1.97B | 2.56B | 6.10B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.80B | 3.15B | 145.56M | -2.82B | 3.12B |
| Net Income | 800.60M | 1.26B | 2.58B | 94.87M | -2.62B | 3.62B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.85B | 29.67B | 22.54B | 14.75B | 89.72B | 21.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.68B | 11.91B | 9.55B | 5.53B | 5.29B | 7.22B |
| Total Debt | 7.96B | 7.83B | 4.63B | 2.99B | 3.49B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.37B | 14.88B | 12.27B | 8.47B | 84.27B | 14.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.48B | 14.79B | 10.28B | 6.28B | 5.45B | 6.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.79B | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 3.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.79B | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 4.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.06B | -2.05B | -282.38M | 5.39M | -663.82M | -1.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 769.18M | 740.28M | 2.83B | -811.33M | -5.84B | 9.98B |
Coinbase Global Technical Analysis
Negative
206.33
Price Trends
189.35
Negative
193.50
Negative
248.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.71
Positive
48.64
Neutral
36.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 206.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.77, above the 50-day MA of 189.35, and below the 200-day MA of 248.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COIN.
Coinbase Global Risk Analysis
Coinbase Global disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coinbase Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.18B | 14.83 | 17.42% | ― | 12.56% | 20.38% | |
78 Outperform | $36.03B | 28.28 | 24.63% | 1.06% | 10.61% | 53.46% | |
78 Outperform | $100.53B | 23.17 | 15.25% | 3.92% | 7.54% | 18.50% | |
72 Outperform | $76.47B | 44.70 | 21.61% | ― | 41.76% | 17.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $48.02B | 62.52 | 5.68% | ― | -4.24% | -43.98% | |
60 Neutral | $21.77B | 40.31 | 6.25% | ― | 32.00% | 10.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
COIN
Coinbase Global
189.03
-57.69
-23.38%
CBOE
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333.56
104.86
45.85%
CME
CME Group
273.54
-6.45
-2.30%
SOFI
SoFi
18.22
4.55
33.28%
HOOD
Robinhood
94.30
26.32
38.72%
ETOR
eToro
41.98
-19.26
-31.45%
Coinbase Global Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Coinbase Announces Major Workforce Reduction and Restructuring Plan
Negative
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. announced a restructuring plan aimed at managing operating expenses in response to current market conditions and optimizing its operations for the emerging AI era. The plan includes cutting about 700 jobs, or ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.