Coinbase Global (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN
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Coinbase Global
(NASDAQ:COIN)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$188.00
▲(1.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is mainly supported by improving fundamentals—particularly strong recent cash flow and a reasonably solid balance sheet—alongside a generally positive earnings-call narrative around diversification and capital returns. Offsetting that, technical signals are mixed to cautious (negative MACD and below longer-term moving averages), and valuation looks expensive at ~46.7x earnings with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025 creates durable capacity to fund product investment, M&A, buybacks, and weekly BTC purchases without needing external financing. That cash buffer materially improves resilience through crypto cycles and supports strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit cyclicality
Revenue and margin swings tied to crypto market cycles create persistent earnings unpredictability. Transaction revenue sensitivity means planning, capex and return metrics can vary widely quarter-to-quarter, challenging long-term forecasting and consistent ROE generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025 creates durable capacity to fund product investment, M&A, buybacks, and weekly BTC purchases without needing external financing. That cash buffer materially improves resilience through crypto cycles and supports strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Coinbase Global (COIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.7
Beta (1Y)2.70
Revenue Growth47.86%
EPS Growth96.46%
CountryUS
Employees4,951
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.49
Shares Outstanding223,041,280
10 Day Avg. Volume8,536,239
30 Day Avg. Volume11,387,672
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)3.98
Price to Sales (P/S)8.19
P/FCF Ratio24.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$255.24Price Target Upside38.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)2.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.00B
Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidi...
How the Company Makes Money
Coinbase generates revenue primarily from transaction-based activities and from subscriptions and services.
1) Transaction revenue (trading fees and spreads)
- Retail trading: Coinbase earns fees (and in some cases spread) when retail customers b...
Coinbase Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Trading Volume
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoinbase Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong multi-year progress: diversified revenue growth (2025 revenue +9% YoY; subscription & services +23% YoY), sustained adjusted profitability, custody leadership (stores ~12% of global crypto), successful product launches (Everything Exchange, derivatives, Base, prediction markets), meaningful M&A, and a robust balance sheet ($11.3B cash / ~$14.1B total resources) with active buybacks and BTC accumulation. Near-term challenges include quarter-over-quarter revenue declines (Q4 revenue -5% QoQ; transaction revenue -6% QoQ), a Q4 GAAP net loss driven by large unrealized investment and strategic losses, rising operating expenses tied to M&A and USDC rewards, and a brief technical outage. Management presented confidence in long-term opportunities (stablecoins, Everything Exchange, Base) and plans to be opportunistic with capital allocation, suggesting the positives outweigh current market-driven and tactical headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for 2025 was $7.2 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, demonstrating top-line expansion despite macro headwinds.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Transaction Slowdown
Q4 total revenue declined to $1.8 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter. Q4 transaction revenue was $983 million, down 6% quarter-over-quarter, and subscription & services revenue was $727 million, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer market conditions (crypto market cap down ~11% QoQ).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for 2025 was $7.2 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, demonstrating top-line expansion despite macro headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Coinbase’s guidance for Q1 called for subscription and services revenue of $550–$630 million and noted roughly $420 million of transaction revenue through Feb. 10; expense guidance was flat QoQ with Technology & Development plus G&A at $925–$975 million and Sales & Marketing at $215–$315 million. Management reiterated ongoing weekly Bitcoin purchases, opportunistic buybacks (have repurchased $1.7 billion / 8.2 million shares to fully offset 2025 stock‑comp dilution and secured an $815 million notional discount, and the Board approved an additional $2 billion authorization), emphasized strong liquidity ($11.3 billion cash and ~$14.1 billion total available resources including crypto assets), and pointed to continued strength (12 consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA profitability) alongside recent Q4 metrics: $1.8 billion total revenue, $983 million transaction revenue, $727 million subscription & services, $566 million adjusted EBITDA and a GAAP net loss of $667 million.Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.18B | 6.56B | 3.11B | 3.19B | 7.84B |
| Gross Profit | 5.36B | 4.91B | 1.97B | 2.56B | 6.10B |
| EBITDA | 1.80B | 3.15B | 145.56M | -2.82B | 3.12B |
| Net Income | 1.26B | 2.58B | 94.87M | -2.62B | 3.62B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.67B | 22.54B | 14.75B | 89.72B | 21.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.91B | 9.55B | 5.53B | 5.29B | 7.22B |
| Total Debt | 7.83B | 4.63B | 2.99B | 3.49B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.88B | 12.27B | 8.47B | 84.27B | 14.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.79B | 10.28B | 6.28B | 5.45B | 6.38B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 3.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 4.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -282.38M | 5.39M | -663.82M | -1.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 740.28M | 2.83B | -811.33M | -5.84B | 9.98B |
Coinbase Global Technical Analysis
Negative
184.41
Price Trends
179.08
Negative
212.94
Negative
276.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.20
Positive
45.87
Neutral
36.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 184.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.49, above the 50-day MA of 179.08, and below the 200-day MA of 276.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COIN.
Coinbase Global Risk Analysis
Coinbase Global disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coinbase Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $109.06B | 24.28 | 14.48% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
80 Outperform | $31.43B | 23.89 | 22.99% | 1.06% | 16.74% | 26.74% | |
70 Outperform | $2.68B | 13.60 | 17.30% | ― | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $46.09B | 46.67 | 9.44% | ― | 47.86% | 96.46% | |
64 Neutral | $64.53B | 53.37 | 22.32% | ― | 73.48% | 315.24% | |
63 Neutral | $21.74B | 62.56 | 5.87% | ― | 22.40% | 215.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
COIN
Coinbase Global
184.41
12.20
7.08%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.