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Coinbase Global (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN
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Coinbase Global
(NASDAQ:COIN)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$194.00
▲(7.15% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and strong recent cash generation with a reasonably supported balance sheet. It is held back by weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend), while the earnings call was constructive on strategy and capital return but tempered by near-term headwinds and GAAP volatility.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, sizable operating and free cash flow over 2024–2025 improves financial flexibility for reinvestment, buybacks, and buffer against downturns. Durable positive FCF supports capital allocation through cycles and reduces reliance on external financing when markets tighten.
Diversifying subscription & services revenue
Rapid expansion of subscription and services revenue reduces reliance on volatile trading fees. A larger recurring-services base (custody, staking, platform services) smooths revenue cyclicality and supports longer-term margin sustainability as product adoption grows.
Custody scale & platform distribution advantage
Leading custody share and tripling assets on platform create durable network effects: more assets increase custody fees, cross‑sell opportunities and product distribution (staking, USDC flows, institutional services), strengthening customer stickiness and competitive moat.
Negative Factors
Revenue cyclicality and sensitivity to crypto markets
Revenue and margins remain tightly linked to crypto market activity; sizable YoY and QoQ swings undermine predictability. This cyclicality limits visibility into sustainable top-line growth and can quickly compress profitability and returns during market drawdowns.
GAAP earnings volatility from crypto holdings
Material mark‑to‑market exposure on investment and strategic holdings creates large, unpredictable GAAP swings. Even with strong operating metrics, balance‑sheet valuation swings can produce periodic losses, complicating earnings comparability and stakeholder assessment.
Rising operating costs tied to USDC rewards and M&A
Higher recurring costs from USDC reward programs and integration costs from acquisitions raise the operating base. If customer yields or product economics compress, sustained elevated expenses could pressure margins and require either higher revenues or cost discipline to maintain profitability.
Coinbase Global (COIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.9
Beta (1Y)2.87
Revenue Growth47.86%
EPS Growth96.46%
CountryUS
Employees3,772
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.49
Shares Outstanding223,041,280
10 Day Avg. Volume14,170,513
30 Day Avg. Volume12,284,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)3.98
Price to Sales (P/S)8.19
P/FCF Ratio24.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$259.64Price Target Upside43.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)3.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.22B
Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCoinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoinbase generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on trades executed on its platform. Users pay a fee for each transaction, which varies depending on the payment method and the size of the transaction. Additionally, Coinbase earns revenue from its subscription services and product offerings, including Coinbase Pro, which caters to professional traders with lower fees and advanced trading features. The company also generates income through staking services, where users can earn rewards for participating in the proof-of-stake networks through Coinbase. Furthermore, Coinbase has established partnerships with various financial institutions and companies to expand its services, which can enhance its revenue streams. Overall, the combination of trading fees, subscription services, and staking rewards constitutes the core of Coinbase's revenue model.
Coinbase Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Trading Volume
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Measures the total amount of cryptocurrency traded on the platform, indicating user engagement, market activity, and Coinbase's ability to generate transaction fees.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoinbase Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong multi-year progress: diversified revenue growth (2025 revenue +9% YoY; subscription & services +23% YoY), sustained adjusted profitability, custody leadership (stores ~12% of global crypto), successful product launches (Everything Exchange, derivatives, Base, prediction markets), meaningful M&A, and a robust balance sheet ($11.3B cash / ~$14.1B total resources) with active buybacks and BTC accumulation. Near-term challenges include quarter-over-quarter revenue declines (Q4 revenue -5% QoQ; transaction revenue -6% QoQ), a Q4 GAAP net loss driven by large unrealized investment and strategic losses, rising operating expenses tied to M&A and USDC rewards, and a brief technical outage. Management presented confidence in long-term opportunities (stablecoins, Everything Exchange, Base) and plans to be opportunistic with capital allocation, suggesting the positives outweigh current market-driven and tactical headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for 2025 was $7.2 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, demonstrating top-line expansion despite macro headwinds.
Subscription & Services Expansion
Subscription and services revenue reached $2.8 billion, up 23% year-over-year and more than 5.5x higher than the prior cycle peak in 2021, indicating strong diversification away from pure trading revenue.
Sustained Adjusted Profitability
Coinbase achieved adjusted EBITDA profitability for the 12th consecutive quarter with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $566 million and adjusted net income of $178 million, showing consistent operational profitability on non‑GAAP measures.
Assets on Platform & Custody Leadership
Assets on platform have grown ~3x over the last 3 years. Coinbase stores ~12% of all crypto globally (more than the next four competitors combined), reinforcing custody and product-distribution advantage.
Everything Exchange Launch & Trading Momentum
Launched Everything Exchange in Q4; global trading volume and market share doubled year-over-year, hit highest 24-hour trading volume in over a year, and recorded all‑time highs in derivatives volume and revenue (Deribit produced an all‑time high quarter).
Stablecoin Positioning and USDC Metrics
USDC stored in Coinbase products hit an all-time high, contributing to USDC's market cap reaching roughly $75 billion and supporting payments and product integrations across Coinbase's stack.
Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and ~ $14.1 billion total available resources (including crypto assets for investment/collateral). Deployed $1.7 billion in share repurchases (fully offsetting 2025 stock‑based compensation dilution) and Board approved an additional $2 billion buyback authorization.
Strategic M&A and Product Expansion
Completed 10 acquisitions/acqui-hires in 2025 including Deribit and Echo (Deribit noted as the largest crypto deal to date). Expanded product breadth (prediction markets rolled out to 100% of customers; equities ~10,000 tickers; Base growth) to accelerate Everything Exchange and onchain strategy.
Native Unit Inflows and BTC Accumulation
Q4 marked the ninth consecutive quarter of native unit inflows. Coinbase increased its bitcoin holdings in its investment portfolio (doubled number of BTC native units held in 2025) and continues weekly crypto purchases and buybacks.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Transaction Slowdown
Q4 total revenue declined to $1.8 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter. Q4 transaction revenue was $983 million, down 6% quarter-over-quarter, and subscription & services revenue was $727 million, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softer market conditions (crypto market cap down ~11% QoQ).
GAAP Net Loss Driven by Unrealized Investment Write‑downs
GAAP net loss in Q4 was $667 million, primarily driven by a $718 million unrealized loss on the crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments (including Circle), highlighting mark-to-market exposure on balance sheet holdings during price declines.
Rising Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses were $1.5 billion in Q4, up 9% quarter-over-quarter. Technology & development, G&A and sales & marketing collectively increased 14% QoQ (11% QoQ excluding deal-related M&A costs), with USDC rewards and recent acquisitions cited as primary drivers.
Stablecoin Market Cap Near-Term Stagnation
Management noted a flatline in stablecoin market cap in recent months tied to reduced risk appetite and lower speculative/leverage activity, meaning transaction volume can rise without corresponding market cap expansion.
Short-Term Revenue Headwinds for Q1
Q1 guidance expects subscription & services revenue in the range of $550 million to $630 million (reflecting lower average crypto prices, lower interest rates and lower staking protocol rewards), and transaction revenue performance is cautioned amid heightened early‑year volatility.
Operational Incident
A technical issue caused brief interruptions for some users on retail and prime platforms impacting buy/sell/transfer functionality (derivatives and equities were unaffected); issue has been resolved but underscores potential platform fragility.
Increased Cost of USDC Rewards
Higher USDC balances on the platform led to increased USDC rewards expense, identified as the single largest contributor to year-over-year expense growth, creating a tradeoff between customer incentives and short-term expense pressure.
Market Sensitivity and Unrealized Volatility Risk
Significant mark-to-market volatility in the investment portfolio means GAAP earnings remain susceptible to macro price swings, which could produce periodic large unrealized losses even as operating metrics stay strong.
Company Guidance
Coinbase’s guidance for Q1 called for subscription and services revenue of $550–$630 million and noted roughly $420 million of transaction revenue through Feb. 10; expense guidance was flat QoQ with Technology & Development plus G&A at $925–$975 million and Sales & Marketing at $215–$315 million. Management reiterated ongoing weekly Bitcoin purchases, opportunistic buybacks (have repurchased $1.7 billion / 8.2 million shares to fully offset 2025 stock‑comp dilution and secured an $815 million notional discount, and the Board approved an additional $2 billion authorization), emphasized strong liquidity ($11.3 billion cash and ~$14.1 billion total available resources including crypto assets), and pointed to continued strength (12 consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA profitability) alongside recent Q4 metrics: $1.8 billion total revenue, $983 million transaction revenue, $727 million subscription & services, $566 million adjusted EBITDA and a GAAP net loss of $667 million.Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a strong rebound from 2022 with solid profitability in 2023–2025 and very strong operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Balance sheet leverage appears moderate with a growing equity base. The key risk is pronounced cyclicality: 2025 revenue declined year over year and profitability compressed sharply versus 2024, consistent with sensitivity to crypto market conditions.Income Statement
Profitability has recovered meaningfully since the 2022 loss year, with solid positive net income in 2023–2025 and strong gross margins across the period. However, results are volatile: revenue fell in 2025 (down 13.6% year over year) and profitability dropped sharply from 2024 to 2025 (net margin fell from ~39% to ~19%), highlighting sensitivity to market/volume conditions.64
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks reasonably supported by equity, with debt levels moderate versus equity in recent years (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.45–0.52 in 2024–2025). Equity has grown materially from 2023 to 2025, which improves resilience. That said, leverage and returns have been inconsistent over the cycle (including a deeply negative return on equity in 2022), indicating performance can swing quickly when operating conditions weaken.71
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength recently: operating cash flow and free cash flow were strong and positive in 2024–2025 (~$2.4–$2.6B), with a very large free-cash-flow rebound in 2025 versus 2024. Free cash flow is also in line with reported earnings in the years provided. The main weakness is historical cyclicality, including negative operating/free cash flow in 2022, and uneven conversion versus earnings (operating cash flow relative to net income varied widely, improving sharply in 2025).76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.18B | 6.56B | 3.11B | 3.19B | 7.84B |
| Gross Profit | 5.36B | 4.91B | 1.97B | 2.56B | 6.10B |
| EBITDA | 1.80B | 3.15B | 145.56M | -2.82B | 3.12B |
| Net Income | 1.26B | 2.58B | 94.87M | -2.62B | 3.62B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.67B | 22.54B | 14.75B | 89.72B | 21.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.91B | 9.55B | 5.53B | 5.29B | 7.22B |
| Total Debt | 7.83B | 4.63B | 2.99B | 3.49B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.88B | 12.27B | 8.47B | 84.27B | 14.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.79B | 10.28B | 6.28B | 5.45B | 6.38B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 3.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.43B | 2.56B | 922.95M | -1.59B | 4.04B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -282.38M | 5.39M | -663.82M | -1.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 740.28M | 2.83B | -811.33M | -5.84B | 9.98B |
Coinbase Global Technical Analysis
Neutral
181.06
Price Trends
210.18
Negative
259.72
Negative
288.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-11.68
Negative
48.63
Neutral
81.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 181.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.21, below the 50-day MA of 210.18, and below the 200-day MA of 288.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COIN.
Coinbase Global Risk Analysis
Coinbase Global disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coinbase Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $115.04B | 28.59 | 14.63% | 3.92% | 5.84% | 8.51% | |
75 Outperform | $30.66B | 28.12 | 23.25% | 1.06% | 16.74% | 26.74% | |
70 Outperform | $2.57B | 12.64 | 19.37% | ― | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $66.13B | 37.65 | 22.01% | ― | 73.48% | 315.24% | |
63 Neutral | $23.80B | 50.76 | 5.66% | ― | 22.40% | 215.81% | |
61 Neutral | $42.79B | 41.90 | 10.05% | ― | 47.86% | 96.46% |
* Financial Sector Average
COIN
Coinbase Global
181.06
-34.56
-16.03%
CBOE
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292.30
83.31
39.87%
CME
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316.45
67.42
27.08%
SOFI
SoFi
19.10
4.63
32.00%
HOOD
Robinhood
79.45
29.35
58.58%
ETOR
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32.28
-34.57
-51.71%
Coinbase Global Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Coinbase Global Completes Reincorporation to Texas
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Coinbase Global, Inc. completed its reincorporation from Delaware to Texas, changing its legal governance to Texas laws without affecting its business operations, management, or shareholder rights. The company’s stock continues trading under the same symbol, with minor changes to certain financial instruments, ensuring continuity for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (COIN) stock is a Sell with a $230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coinbase Global stock, see the COIN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.