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Cinemark Holdings (CNK)
NYSE:CNK
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Cinemark Holdings
(NYSE:CNK)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-0.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
CNK scores as moderately attractive, led by improving operating fundamentals and strong cash generation but held back by elevated leverage and signs of 2025 margin compression. Technicals are mildly supportive (positive MACD and price above short-term averages), while valuation is only fair given a ~24.7 P/E and modest dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds support via upbeat 2026 guidance and multiple growth levers, tempered by cost and slate/capacity risks.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong and improving operating cash flow (≈$396M in 2025) and a ~42% rebound in free cash flow provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, targeted CapEx and shareholder returns. Reliable FCF underpins strategic flexibility and long-term deleveraging even if growth moderates.
Loyalty & Revenue Diversification
A notably larger Movie Club base (>50% vs 2019) and alternative content >10% of box office create recurring, less slate-dependent revenue. These structural shifts reduce single-film sensitivity, improve customer stickiness and support more predictable concession and ticket demand over multiple years.
Premium Formats & Market Position
Growing premium formats and high recliner penetration expand higher-margin revenue and differentiate the circuit. Combined with stated sustainable market-share gains, these durable competitive advantages support structural margin improvement and pricing power as box office normalizes.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material leverage (~2.8x D/E) leaves the company more sensitive to box-office volatility or cost shocks, constraining strategic flexibility. Even with progress, high leverage limits capacity for sizable M&A, large buybacks, or rapid reinvestment without sustained FCF or slower debt paydown.
Margin Volatility
Sharp EBITDA and net margin swings reflect high sensitivity to film slate and attendance. Structural margin durability is uncertain because variable costs (film rent, wages, utilities) and slate outcomes can quickly erode gains, making multi-year margin guidance and cash-flow stability less predictable.
International & Slate Sensitivity
Significant exposure to Latin America and sensitivity to film mix, inflation and FX creates structural revenue volatility. This geographic and slate dependence complicates forecasting, can depress margins in adverse currency or programming environments, and limits consistent multinational growth.
Cinemark Holdings (CNK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.26B
Dividend Yield1.45%
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.1
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth9.70%
EPS Growth-31.62%
CountryUS
Employees9,252
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding115,526,240
10 Day Avg. Volume2,785,787
30 Day Avg. Volume2,438,660
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.36
Price to Book (P/B)6.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio15.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.36Price Target Upside11.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.41B
Cinemark Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCinemark Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the motion picture exhibition business. As of June 30, 2022, it operated 522 theatres with 5,868 screens in the United States, and South and Central America. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCinemark generates revenue primarily through ticket sales and concessions. The bulk of its earnings comes from admissions, as customers pay for tickets to view films in its theaters. Additionally, the company profits from the sale of food and beverages, which typically have higher margins compared to ticket sales. Cinemark also explores alternative revenue streams such as advertising within theaters, partnerships with film studios for promotional events, and special screenings. The company benefits from its loyalty program, which encourages repeat visits and increases customer retention. Overall, its financial performance is influenced by factors such as box office trends, film release schedules, and consumer spending behavior.
Cinemark Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Attendance
Measures the total number of patrons visiting theaters, indicating overall popularity and demand for movie experiences.
Measures the total number of patrons visiting theaters, indicating overall popularity and demand for movie experiences.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCinemark Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call was constructive and largely positive: management highlighted record 2025 revenue, strong adjusted EBITDA ($578M) and margin (18.6%), multi-year cash generation, significant debt paydown, large reinvestment in CapEx, and meaningful gains in concessions, loyalty and alternative content. The company is ramping CapEx to $250M in 2026 and sees multiple organic growth levers. Key risks discussed include a softer-than-expected 2025 slate (pressure on attendance), international attendance variability, rising operating costs, potential capacity constraints in a busier 2026 slate, and uncertainty around theatrical windowing and industry consolidation. On balance, the company portrayed strong financial and operational momentum while acknowledging manageable industry and cost headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Adjusted EBITDA
Worldwide revenue reached $3,100,000,000 (post-pandemic high) in FY2025, producing $578,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA and an 18.6% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Multi-Year Cash Generation and Balance Sheet Repair
Over the past three years Cinemark generated nearly $1,800,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA and over $1,300,000,000 of operating cash flow, extinguished over $700,000,000 of COVID-related debt, and returned $315,000,000 to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
Material Capital Investment Program
Reinvested over $5,000,000,000 in capital expenditures historically; CapEx planned to ramp to $250,000,000 in 2026 with $50–$60,000,000 typically allocated to international markets, driven by new builds, enhancements and pipeline reactivation.
Concessions and Per Cap Growth
Domestic concession per caps increased 5% year-over-year in 2025. Management attributes roughly ~3 percentage points to strategic pricing, ~1 point to higher incidence, and ~1 point to product-mix shifts (merchandise and enhanced foods).
Average Ticket Price (ATP) Momentum
Domestic ATP delivered a 4% CAGR over the past three years; management expects modest year-over-year ATP increases in 2026 driven by targeted pricing and premium format expansion.
Loyalty and Alternative Content Strength
U.S. Movie Club membership is up over 50% versus 2019. Alternative programming now represents more than 10% of box office and alternative-content proceeds are more than double 2019 levels, showing strong audience diversification.
Premium Formats and Circuit Amenities
Premium enhanced formats continue to grow: about 10% of the U.S. circuit has two XD screens and premium formats represent ~15% of overall box office. Recliner penetration in the U.S. is 72%, with additional recliner and premium opportunities identified.
Market Share Gains and Competitive Positioning
Management cites meaningful market share expansion since pre-pandemic levels and believes at least ~100 basis points (and potentially more) of those gains are sustainable due to programming, pricing, loyalty and operational initiatives.
Operational & Strategic Initiatives
Investments in productivity, cloud-based software, pricing and showtime optimization, loyalty enhancements (new premium tier, badges, surprise-and-delight events), and a dedicated alternative-content team are expected to drive continued revenue and margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Softer-Than-Expected Film Slate and Attendance Pressure in 2025
Management noted 2025 underperformed relative to expectations due to a mixed slate, absence of a >$1,000,000,000 mega-blockbuster and no major summer animated hit; attendance was cited as a headwind to 2025 margins.
International Attendance Declines
International attendance fell in 2025 (notably Latin America) primarily due to film mix; performance in international segments will remain sensitive to slate, inflation and foreign exchange dynamics.
Potential Capacity Constraints in 2026
A busier, more crowded summer and year-end in 2026 could create capacity constraints that limit the ability to expand market share compared with 2025, normalizing share gains depending on actual film-by-film outcomes.
Windowing and Distribution Uncertainty
Shortened or variable theatrical-to-home windows remain a concern—awareness of highly shortened windows may depress smaller films and casual moviegoers; management seeks clearer, durable windowing commitments (45-day window referenced as a potential balance).
Rising Operating Costs and Expense Pressures
G&A will reflect merit increases and rising benefits; utilities and other facility costs remain elevated (deferred maintenance addressed in 2025); variable costs (film rental, advertising, wages, concession supplies) will fluctuate with attendance and could pressure margins if box office softness persists.
Limits to Premium Format Penetration
Although premium formats are growing, they still account for ~15% of box office and only ~10% of the domestic circuit has two XDs, indicating a runway but also practical limits (site constraints and screen availability) to near-term premium expansion.
Uncertainty Around M&A and Industry Consolidation
M&A remains a potential lever, but management emphasizes disciplined, accretive transactions; the Warner Brothers/Netflix/other consolidation dynamics remain fluid and could create industry uncertainty until outcomes and firm commitments on windows and marketing are clarified.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to benefit from a robust slate and higher release volume (approaching pre‑pandemic levels), expecting stronger box office and attendance to drive margin expansion versus 2025’s $3.1B revenue and $578M adjusted EBITDA (18.6% margin); they forecast modest full‑year average ticket price growth, moderate year‑over‑year concession per‑cap gains (domestic per‑caps were +5% in 2025, driven roughly +3 pts pricing, +1 pt incidence, +1 pt mix), and operational leverage from higher attendance, while ramping CapEx to $250M in 2026 (with roughly $50–60M typically allocated to international) to fund new builds (El Paso opened 2025; Greenville slated 2026; Omaha 2027), premium expansion (premium formats ~15% of box office; ~10% of domestic sites have two XDs; U.S. recliner penetration ~72%), continued Movie Club growth (>50% vs 2019), and further upside from alternative content (now >10% of box office and >2x 2019 proceeds).Cinemark Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Post-downturn recovery is evident with sustained profitability since 2023 and solid cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~$396M; free cash flow up ~42% YoY). However, balance-sheet leverage remains a key constraint (debt-to-equity ~2.8x in 2025) and 2025 showed margin compression versus 2024 (net margin down to ~4%; EBITDA margin down to ~7%), limiting the score despite improving fundamentals.Income Statement
Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the 2020–2022 loss period, with net income positive in 2023–2025 and 2024 showing the strongest net margin (~10%). However, the most recent year (2025) shows weakening earnings quality versus 2024: revenue declined (~-1% growth) and net margin fell to ~4%, while EBITDA margin dropped to ~7% (down sharply from ~20% in 2023–2024). Overall: recovery is clear, but momentum and margin consistency are concerns.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the key risk. Debt-to-equity is still elevated (~2.8x in 2025) despite significant improvement from extremely high levels in 2022–2023, and equity remains relatively small versus the asset base. Returns on equity are high in recent years, but that is amplified by high leverage and low equity, increasing sensitivity to any downturn. Overall balance-sheet health is improving, but still below average for financial flexibility.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow is solid and improving in the latest year (2025 operating cash flow ~$396M), and free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 (up ~42% versus the prior year). Free cash flow also covers net income well in 2025 (about 1x). The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt (well under 1x across years), meaning deleveraging will likely take time.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.12B | 3.05B | 3.07B | 2.45B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 577.90M | 1.96B | 570.60M | 1.58B | 997.60M |
| EBITDA | 543.70M | 616.30M | 603.90M | 151.70M | -300.00K |
| Net Income | 138.20M | 309.70M | 188.20M | -271.20M | -422.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.43B | 5.07B | 4.84B | 4.82B | 5.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.30M | 1.06B | 849.10M | 674.50M | 707.30M |
| Total Debt | 3.78B | 3.46B | 3.55B | 3.78B | 3.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.02B | 4.46B | 4.52B | 4.70B | 4.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 405.20M | 594.40M | 309.80M | 110.20M | 322.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 177.20M | 315.20M | 294.80M | 25.30M | 70.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 396.10M | 466.00M | 444.30M | 136.00M | 166.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -209.20M | -146.90M | -131.80M | -96.30M | -89.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -913.10M | -103.10M | -125.40M | -52.20M | -19.90M |
Cinemark Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
28.24
Price Trends
24.25
Positive
25.56
Positive
27.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.71
Negative
71.12
Negative
73.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.69, above the 50-day MA of 24.25, and above the 200-day MA of 27.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNK.
Cinemark Holdings Risk Analysis
Cinemark Holdings disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cinemark Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cinemark Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.31B | 68.05 | 10.94% | ― | 9.30% | 67.19% | |
65 Neutral | $2.98B | 58.59 | 224.08% | ― | 0.68% | -80.73% | |
61 Neutral | $3.26B | 27.09 | 27.31% | 1.45% | 9.70% | -31.62% | |
61 Neutral | $4.23B | -398.96 | 1.44% | ― | 24.54% | -119.75% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
47 Neutral | $2.61B | -10.28 | ― | ― | 97.19% | -21.46% | |
44 Neutral | $614.27M | -0.89 | ― | ― | 9.74% | 12.29% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
CNK
Cinemark Holdings
28.24
4.17
17.34%
IMAX
IMAX
42.83
17.81
71.18%
AMC
AMC Entertainment
1.16
-1.89
-61.97%
SPHR
Sphere Entertainment
119.01
81.32
215.76%
LION
Lionsgate Studios
9.00
0.62
7.40%
MSGE
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.
63.14
29.31
86.64%
Cinemark Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cinemark Posts Record 2025 Revenue and Market Share Gains
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Cinemark Holdings reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting its highest post-pandemic revenue of $3.1 billion for the year and strong operating performance despite a softer film slate. The company entertained 193 million moviegoers in 2025, generated $578 million in Adjusted EBITDA with an 18.6% margin, and posted net income attributable to Cinemark of $138.2 million, or $1.04 per diluted share, while also strengthening its balance sheet and cash generation.
The exhibitor extended its long-running box office outperformance versus the North American industry, gained more than 150 basis points of market share over pre-pandemic levels in both the U.S. and Latin America, and grew its Movie Club loyalty base to over 1.45 million members contributing 30% of domestic admissions revenue. Cinemark reported record proceeds from enhanced formats and non-traditional content, all-time high concession revenue of $1.2 billion, extinguished all remaining COVID-related debt, and returned $315 million to shareholders in 2025, even as quarterly revenue and profit declined year over year in the fourth quarter and full-year net income fell from 2024.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNK) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cinemark Holdings stock, see the CNK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.