Commerce.com (CMRC)
NASDAQ:CMRC
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Commerce.com
(NASDAQ:CMRC)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-4.94% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—strong gross margins, accelerating revenue trend in 2025, and a shift to positive operating/free cash flow—tempered by balance-sheet leverage and still-negative GAAP profitability. Technicals remain meaningfully weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators. Earnings-call guidance was constructive on profitability and deleveraging, but sub-100% retention and execution risk keep the overall score near the middle of the range.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~75–79% gross margins reflect software-like unit economics that support durable profitability as revenue scales. High gross margins provide room to invest in R&D and go-to-market while protecting operating leverage, making margin improvement more resilient over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity
Persistently high leverage (improved from extreme levels but still ~4.2x) leaves limited financial flexibility and raises refinancing or covenant risk if cash generation weakens. A stretched capital structure constrains capital allocation and increases sensitivity to execution slippage over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~75–79% gross margins reflect software-like unit economics that support durable profitability as revenue scales. High gross margins provide room to invest in R&D and go-to-market while protecting operating leverage, making margin improvement more resilient over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Commerce.com (CMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$216.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)641.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth2.97%
EPS Growth53.53%
CountryUS
Employees1,161
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding82,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume478,514
30 Day Avg. Volume641,604
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.54
Price to Book (P/B)8.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio17.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda56.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside71.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$352.34M
Commerce.com Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commerce.com, Inc. operates a software-as-a-service e-commerce platform for brands and retailers in the United States, North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company provides a platform for launching an...
Commerce.com Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Enterprise Accounts
Tracks the count of enterprise clients, reflecting BigCommerce's success in attracting and retaining large businesses, which can drive significant revenue growth.
Tracks the count of enterprise clients, reflecting BigCommerce's success in attracting and retaining large businesses, which can drive significant revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCommerce.com Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a constructive operational and strategic story: stable and sizable GMV growth (12%), meaningful improvements in profitability, strengthened balance sheet (cash $143M and net debt down ~67%), clear product and AI partnerships, and planned R&D investment (+30%) to drive monetization (payments, Surface, MakeSwift). However, the company faces important near-term execution challenges — notably a 95.2% NRR below target, a gap between GMV growth and ARR/take rates driven by B2B mix, modest overall revenue growth (~3% YoY), and a wide guidance range reflecting execution and macro uncertainty. Overall, the positives (scale, profitability gains, product momentum and clear monetization roadmap) outweigh the negatives, contingent on successful execution of planned initiatives in 2026.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability Improvement
Full-year 2025 revenue of $342,000,000, up ~3% YoY; Q4 2025 revenue $89,500,000, up 3% YoY. Full-year non-GAAP operating income of $28,000,000 with expanded non-GAAP operating margin +230 bps vs 2024 and +990 bps vs 2023.
Negative Updates
Modest Top-Line Growth and ARR-GMV Disconnect
Revenue grew only ~3% YoY in 2025 while GMV grew 12%, highlighting a gap between transaction volume and top-line ARR growth that management acknowledges and aims to narrow.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability Improvement
Full-year 2025 revenue of $342,000,000, up ~3% YoY; Q4 2025 revenue $89,500,000, up 3% YoY. Full-year non-GAAP operating income of $28,000,000 with expanded non-GAAP operating margin +230 bps vs 2024 and +990 bps vs 2023.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 revenue of $82.5M–$83.5M and non‑GAAP operating income of $9.3M–$10.3M, and full‑year 2026 revenue of $347.5M–$369.5M with non‑GAAP operating income of $34M–$53M (implying 2%–8% full‑year revenue growth and ~10%–14% non‑GAAP operating margin at the midpoint); management said this outlook exceeds Street consensus, implies GAAP profitability for FY26, a Rule of 40 combined growth+margin of roughly 11%–22%, and non‑GAAP operating income ~57% higher year‑over‑year at the midpoint, while noting plans to increase R&D ~30% in 2026, target cash to exceed long‑term debt by mid‑2026 after restructuring, and accelerate monetization of a platform with ~$359M ARR and nearly $32B GMV (GMV up ~12% in 2025).Commerce.com Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 342.35M | 332.93M | 309.39M | 279.07M | 219.85M |
| Gross Profit | 269.60M | 255.34M | 235.19M | 209.09M | 171.38M |
| EBITDA | 5.51M | -7.10M | -43.28M | -127.14M | -70.31M |
| Net Income | -19.34M | -27.03M | -64.67M | -139.92M | -76.68M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 308.79M | 340.29M | 444.06M | 474.06M | 555.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.10M | 178.16M | 270.13M | 303.51M | 399.88M |
| Total Debt | 165.52M | 220.58M | 350.31M | 350.11M | 348.41M |
| Total Liabilities | 269.44M | 306.92M | 418.52M | 428.38M | 417.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.35M | 33.37M | 25.53M | 45.67M | 138.29M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.80M | 22.53M | -28.42M | -94.55M | -43.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.40M | 26.25M | -24.24M | -89.36M | -40.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.52M | 105.29M | 2.82M | -116.53M | -186.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.08M | -114.04M | 1.24M | 209.00K | 305.27M |
Commerce.com Technical Analysis
Negative
2.63
Price Trends
2.82
Negative
3.50
Negative
4.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
41.39
Neutral
35.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.67, below the 50-day MA of 2.82, and below the 200-day MA of 4.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMRC.
Commerce.com Risk Analysis
Commerce.com disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Commerce.com reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Commerce.com Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.04B | 7.22 | 19.47% | ― | 5.80% | 12.20% | |
69 Neutral | $1.80B | -93.17 | -6.73% | ― | 19.87% | -136.93% | |
69 Neutral | $697.16M | 17.45 | 8.24% | ― | 3.62% | -20.45% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $717.57M | 61.80 | -13.21% | ― | -2.13% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $216.19M | -17.10 | -48.65% | ― | 2.97% | 53.53% |
* Technology Sector Average
CMRC
Commerce.com
2.63
-2.53
-49.03%
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27.07%
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SEMR
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11.94
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VTEX
VTEX
4.03
-0.88
-17.92%
Commerce.com Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Commerce.com Announces Workforce Realignment and Cost Optimization
Negative
Jan 7, 2026
On December 31, 2025, Commerce.com committed to a workforce realignment plan aimed at better aligning staffing with its ongoing cost structure and improving operational efficiency in fiscal 2026 to support profitable revenue growth. The company re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.