Commerce.com (CMRC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $227.54M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: 2.97%
• EPS Growth: 53.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,161
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 81,263,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,642,568
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,342,785
• PEG Ratio: 0.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.79
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 79.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $353.15M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-10.07% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (high leverage vs. equity) and very bearish technicals (price well below key moving averages with negative momentum). Offsetting these are improved operating/free cash flow and an earnings-call outlook pointing to further profitability and balance-sheet improvement, but execution risks (NRR below 100%, monetization gap, and modest growth guidance) keep the overall score below average.

Positive Factors

Large, growing GMV scale

A ~$32B GMV platform growing double digits provides durable transaction scale and network effects. Large, consistent GMV creates a sizeable addressable base to monetize over time, supports merchant retention, and underpins long‑term upsell and payments revenue expansion.

Improved cash generation

Positive operating and free cash flow with materially lower net debt strengthens financial flexibility. Improved cash generation funds R&D and product launches, reduces refinancing risk, and creates a sustainable runway to reach GAAP profitability if execution continues.

AI & product partnerships

Strategic partnerships with market‑leading AI providers and positioning as an AI commerce infrastructure layer create a durable competitive edge. These integrations enhance product stickiness, accelerate merchant adoption, and improve long‑term monetization potential across services.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

High leverage materially limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to any revenue or margin setbacks. Even with recent improvement, elevated debt amplifies execution risk, constrains opportunistic investment, and could pressure cash flow if growth or margins slip.

Net revenue retention below 100%

NRR under 100% implies existing customers are shrinking dollar spend, requiring more new business to maintain ARR. Persistent sub‑100 NRR weakens the durability of subscription revenue and raises reliance on successful cross-sell, reactivation, or higher take rates to drive sustainable growth.

ARR-to-GMV monetization gap

A widening gap between robust GMV and modest revenue growth shows low take rates and limited monetization, especially in B2B where payments penetration is lower. Without successful rollout of payments and product monetization, scale may not translate into durable revenue or margin expansion.

Commerce.com Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce.com, Inc. operates a software-as-a-service e-commerce platform for brands and retailers in the United States, North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company provides a platform for launching and scaling an ecommerce operation, including store design, catalog management, hosting, checkout, order management, reporting, and pre-integration into third-party services, such as payments, shipping, and accounting. It serves stores in various sizes, product categories, and purchase types comprising business-to-consumer and business-to-business. Commerce.com, Inc. was formerly known as BigCommerce Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Commerce.com, Inc. in July 2025. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce.com generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from transaction fees charged to merchants for each sale made through its platform. Additionally, the company earns money by offering premium subscription plans that provide merchants with enhanced features such as advanced analytics, marketing tools, and priority customer support. CMRC also partners with third-party logistics providers to offer shipping solutions, taking a percentage of the shipping fees as revenue. Furthermore, the company generates supplementary income through advertising services, allowing brands to promote their products on the site. These diverse revenue streams contribute to the overall profitability of Commerce.com.

Commerce.com Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and accelerating revenue growth with consistently high gross margins, plus improved profitability trend (EBITDA positive) and positive operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is a major constraint: elevated leverage (high debt vs. equity) and persistently negative ROE reduce financial flexibility and raise risk if growth or margins weaken.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong and accelerating (2025 up ~73% vs. 2024 up ~8%), and gross margins are consistently high (~75–79%), indicating solid product economics. Profitability is improving meaningfully (net margin from about -50% in 2022 to about -6% in 2025) and EBITDA turned positive in 2025, but the company is still posting net losses and negative EBIT, suggesting the path to sustainable profitability is not fully proven yet.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated with a high debt load versus equity (debt-to-equity ~4.2x in 2025, after being even higher in prior years), and equity remains relatively small compared with the balance sheet size. Returns on equity are deeply negative across the period due to ongoing losses, which weakens financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to any slowdown in growth or margin pressure, despite some improvement in leverage from the 2023 peak.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved materially: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in both 2024 and 2025, a sharp turnaround from negative levels in 2021–2023. That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024 (about -33% growth), and cash flow still does not fully cover reported earnings losses, highlighting some volatility and execution risk as the company scales.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	342.35M	332.93M	309.39M	279.07M	219.85M
Gross Profit	269.60M	255.34M	235.19M	209.09M	171.38M
EBITDA	8.93M	-7.10M	-43.28M	-127.14M	-70.31M
Net Income	-19.34M	-27.03M	-64.67M	-139.92M	-76.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	308.79M	340.29M	444.06M	474.06M	555.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	141.10M	178.16M	270.13M	303.51M	399.88M
Total Debt	165.52M	220.58M	350.31M	350.11M	348.41M
Total Liabilities	269.44M	306.92M	418.52M	428.38M	417.17M
Stockholders Equity	39.35M	33.37M	25.53M	45.67M	138.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.80M	22.53M	-28.42M	-94.55M	-43.60M
Operating Cash Flow	27.40M	26.25M	-24.24M	-89.36M	-40.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.52M	105.29M	2.82M	-116.53M	-186.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-53.08M	-114.04M	1.24M	209.00K	305.27M

Commerce.com Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, below the 50-day MA of 3.60, and below the 200-day MA of 4.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMRC.

Commerce.com Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YALA	81 Outperform	$1.13B	8.69	20.19%	―	5.80%	12.20%
SEMR	69 Neutral	$1.79B	-384.69	-1.68%	―	19.87%	-136.93%
VTEX	66 Neutral	$529.50M	79.63	6.53%	―	3.62%	-20.45%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PRCH	56 Neutral	$781.26M	-172.35	―	―	-2.13%	―
CMRC	49 Neutral	$227.54M	-11.60	-53.19%	―	2.97%	53.53%

Commerce.com Corporate Events

Commerce.com Announces Workforce Realignment and Cost Optimization

On December 31, 2025, Commerce.com committed to a workforce realignment plan aimed at better aligning staffing with its ongoing cost structure and improving operational efficiency in fiscal 2026 to support profitable revenue growth. The company recorded approximately $7.4 million in related expenses in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and expects an additional $6.5 million in fiscal 2026, largely tied to severance and professional services, with anticipated operating cash outflows of about $3.4 million in the first quarter and $12.2 million over fiscal 2026; the charges, which may differ from current estimates, will be excluded from Commerce.com’s non-GAAP financial measures, underscoring a near-term hit to cash flow while signaling a longer-term cost-optimization strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMRC) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce.com stock, see the CMRC Stock Forecast page.