Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $44.82B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 17.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 5.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 1,302,423,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,941,546
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,778,593
• PEG Ratio: 12.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 17.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.20
• 1Y Price Target: $45.26
• Price Target Upside: 31.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.95B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(7.53% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/05/26

The score is primarily supported by strong historical financial performance and solid cash generation, but is held back by signs of margin pressure and a more cautious near-term outlook from management. Technicals are moderately constructive but not fully supportive given the stock remains below the 200-day average, while valuation is a drag due to a higher P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Consistent Cash Generation

Stable operating cash flow (~$2.1B) and healthy free cash flow (~$1.45B in 2025), with FCF historically ~64–72% of net income, provide durable funding for reinvestment, unit growth and buybacks. This cash conversion supports strategic flexibility even if near-term margins wobble.

Record Unit Growth and Store Expansion

Aggressive, profitable unit growth (record 345 openings) expands scale and market penetration, diversifies revenue across geographies, and drives long-term comp opportunities. A larger store base enhances supply chain leverage and unit-level learning, supporting sustained revenue growth over the medium term.

Digital and Loyalty Momentum

Digital sales >37% and 21M+ active rewards members embed recurring behavior and higher AOV. Loyalty and digital channels lower marginal marketing costs, improve data-driven personalization, and raise share of wallet, creating a durable revenue stream less dependent on foot-traffic volatility.

Negative Factors

Sharp Increase in Leverage

A large rise in total debt and debt/equity (~3.48x) materially reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains capacity for opportunistic investment or buybacks, and raises vulnerability to demand shocks or margin compression.

Gross Margin Step-Down

A meaningful gross margin decline (~440bps) signals persistent input-cost or mix pressures. If sustained, this reduces the upside from operating leverage and forces tougher trade-offs between price, traffic and promotions, limiting medium-term margin expansion despite operational improvements.

Comparable Sales Weakness and Margin Headwinds

Declining comps and conservative guidance indicate demand softness; management expects pricing to lag inflation, implying a roughly ~150bp full‑year margin headwind. Combined with higher labor and marketing, this constrains near- to medium-term profit recovery and unit ROI.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to customers through its company-owned restaurants, with revenue recognized at the point of sale for in-restaurant and digital orders. Its largest revenue stream is restaurant sales from core menu items (e.g., burritos, bowls, tacos, salads) and add-ons (e.g., extra protein, guacamole, queso), with beverages contributing additional sales. A significant and growing portion of transactions is generated through digital channels (mobile app and website), including pickup and delivery; delivery orders are typically facilitated through third-party delivery platforms, where Chipotle records the customer sale while incurring related delivery and platform fees as costs/expenses rather than as a separate revenue line item. Beyond core restaurant sales, Chipotle also earns smaller amounts from other sources such as gift card breakage and ancillary items (if disclosed in reporting). Key factors influencing earnings include same-store sales growth (traffic and pricing), menu mix (higher-priced proteins and premium add-ons), throughput and operational efficiency, and the contribution of new restaurant openings, with profitability driven by managing food, labor, occupancy, and other restaurant operating costs.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and structurally higher profitability support a high score, reinforced by solid operating cash flow and healthy free cash flow generation. Offsetting factors include a meaningful 2025 gross margin step-down and a weaker balance-sheet score driven by sharply higher leverage in 2025, which reduces flexibility if costs or demand soften.

Income Statement

Chipotle shows strong top-line momentum, with revenue rising from ~$6.0B (2020) to ~$11.9B (2025). Profitability has also structurally improved since 2020, with net margin expanding from ~5.9% (2020) to ~12.9% (2025) and operating margin reaching ~16.9% (2025). The key weakness is a noticeable 2025 gross margin step-down versus 2024 (about 22.3% vs 26.7%), which suggests higher input and/or labor pressure that could cap incremental profitability if it persists.

Balance Sheet

Returns on shareholder capital are very strong (return on equity consistently high, reaching ~54% in 2025), but leverage increased sharply in 2025. Total debt jumped to ~$9.85B (from ~$4.54B in 2024), pushing debt relative to equity to ~3.48x (vs ~1.24x in 2024). While the business remains profitable, the higher debt load reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to downturns or cost volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and relatively consistent, with operating cash flow around ~$2.1B in both 2024 and 2025 and free cash flow of ~$1.45B in 2025. Free cash flow generally tracks earnings at a healthy level (roughly ~64%–72% of net income in recent years), supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. The main drawback is that 2025 free cash flow declined versus 2024 (negative growth), indicating some near-term pressure from working capital, capital spending, or operating costs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.93B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B
Gross Profit	3.03B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B
EBITDA	2.37B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B
Net Income	1.54B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.99B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B
Total Debt	9.85B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B
Total Liabilities	6.16B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.45B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M
Operating Cash Flow	2.11B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B
Investing Cash Flow	-35.08M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.47B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 34.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.01, below the 50-day MA of 37.89, and below the 200-day MA of 41.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DRI	76 Outperform	$23.47B	21.17	50.89%	3.06%	8.61%	9.39%
MCD	75 Outperform	$231.80B	25.46	-336.86%	2.31%	1.26%	2.87%
YUM	74 Outperform	$45.25B	26.98	-20.57%	1.84%	11.60%	-4.33%
CMG	67 Neutral	$44.82B	36.75	47.00%	―	7.31%	5.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
QSR	61 Neutral	$34.21B	29.37	23.08%	3.60%	16.82%	-29.91%
SBUX	59 Neutral	$111.16B	83.00	-17.22%	2.88%	2.80%	-50.71%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Announces Major Leadership Changes and Succession Plans

On January 12, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill announced a sweep of leadership changes, with Chief Human Resources Officer Ilene Eskenazi elevated to the combined role of Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer, succeeding outgoing Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel Roger Theodoredis. On the same date, Vice President of Brand Marketing Stephanie Perdue was named Interim Chief Marketing Officer, following the departure of Chris Brandt from his role as President, Chief Brand Officer; both Theodoredis and Brandt transitioned out of their executive positions effective January 12, 2026, but will remain in non-executive advisory roles for a limited period to support an orderly succession, during which they will receive salary and benefits but no new equity awards. Chipotle has launched an internal and external search, supported by an executive search firm, to identify a permanent CMO, while reaffirming its previously issued full-year 2025 financial guidance, signaling management’s intent to maintain strategic and financial continuity despite the executive turnover and to reinforce investor confidence in its long-term growth and operational plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.