Commercial Metals (CMC)
NYSE:CMC
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Commercial Metals Company
(NYSE:CMC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
▲(14.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
CMC scores as moderately attractive, led by a strong and confident earnings-call outlook (record-in-3-years EBITDA, expanding margins, and upbeat Q4 guidance) and a reasonable valuation. Offsetting this, the financial profile still reflects steel-cycle sensitivity (profits below prior peak years, uneven cash conversion) and leverage that has stepped up versus prior periods, while technical signals show weak near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Margin & EBITDA Expansion
A large YoY EBITDA and margin gain reflects durable improvement in pricing, cost control and operational leverage. Sustained higher metal spreads and TAG-driven productivity gains can support cash generation across cycles, making earnings less fragile and enabling reinvestment or debt reduction.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage vs Prior Years
Higher leverage reduces financial cushion against a steel downturn and increases interest cost sensitivity. If cyclical margins revert, the elevated debt burden can constrain capital allocation, limit opportunistic investment, and slow the planned pace of deleveraging versus management targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin & EBITDA Expansion
A large YoY EBITDA and margin gain reflects durable improvement in pricing, cost control and operational leverage. Sustained higher metal spreads and TAG-driven productivity gains can support cash generation across cycles, making earnings less fragile and enabling reinvestment or debt reduction.
Read all positive factors
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.22B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)1.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth15.23%
EPS Growth1535.96%
CountryUS
Employees13,178
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.36
Shares Outstanding110,887,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,193,186
30 Day Avg. Volume1,043,092
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio20.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.33Price Target Upside24.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)6.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.16B
Commercial Metals Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is an international enterprise specializing in the production, recycling, and fabrication of steel and metal products, along with providing related services. The company serves markets across the United States, Pola...
How the Company Makes Money
CMC makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling steel and steel-related products and by buying, processing, and reselling scrap metal. Key revenue streams include: (1) Steel product sales: CMC sells finished and semi-finished steel products...
Commercial Metals Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 25, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial trajectory: strong YoY growth in core EBITDA (78.6%), significant margin expansion, successful Precast integration with meaningful accretion to Construction Solutions, progress on TAG efficiency initiatives, and clear deleveraging and liquidity improvements. Near‑term challenges—Q3 maintenance outages (~$20M impact), temporary scrap cost pressure, weather‑related shipment delays, and purchase‑accounting amortization that depresses reported earnings—were explicitly called out as largely temporary and expected to reverse into Q4. Management provided a constructive Q4 outlook (expected $40M–$50M sequential EBITDA improvement) and maintained full‑year Precast guidance, reinforcing confidence in sustainability of improvements. On balance, the highlights (strong margins, earnings growth, integration success, deleveraging and cash‑tax benefits) outweigh the temporary lowlights.Positive Updates
Core EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Consolidated core EBITDA rose 78.6% year‑over‑year to $354 million in Q3; consolidated core EBITDA margin expanded to 14.2%, up ~440 basis points YoY.
Negative Updates
Elevated Planned Maintenance Outages
Planned maintenance outages at 7 of 10 mills in Q3 negatively impacted results by approximately $20 million; 2026 planned maintenance ran at roughly 2x normal levels and concentrated in Q3, reducing available customer inventory.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Consolidated core EBITDA rose 78.6% year‑over‑year to $354 million in Q3; consolidated core EBITDA margin expanded to 14.2%, up ~440 basis points YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CMC guided to a stronger finish to fiscal 2026, reporting Q3 core EBITDA of $354 million (highest in 3 years; +78.6% YoY) and a core EBITDA margin of 14.2% (+440 bps YoY), and expecting a meaningful sequential Q4 increase in core EBITDA (overall +$40–50M QoQ) driven by a ~$20M benefit from the absence of mill outages plus similar volume/margin improvement in the North American Steel Group (NA Steel adj. EBITDA $254M, $134/ton; metal margins +$111 YoY), while consolidated adjusted earnings were $193M ($1.73 diluted, +142.4% YoY) and GAAP net earnings were $173M ($1.55). Construction Solutions Group sales nearly doubled to $395M (including $176M from the acquired Precast businesses) with adj. EBITDA up to $97.4M (+138%) and a 24.7% margin (Precast contributed $52.9M and ~4.4 pts of accretion); CMC reiterated fiscal‑26 Precast EBITDA (ex‑purchase accounting) of $165–175M. Europe adj. EBITDA was $34.7M (including a $20.4M CO2 credit) with metal margins +$37/ton YoY, downstream bookings grew >9% YoY, precast backlog was up low single digits, TAG is tracking well ahead of its $150M run‑rate target, adjusted net leverage (pro‑forma for acquisitions) is ~2.1x with a goal <2.0x by mid‑2027, total liquidity is nearly $1.8B, fiscal‑26 CapEx is ~$550M (including $300–350M to complete the West Virginia micro mill and ~$25M for precast), Q3 excluded ~$25.5M pretax items ( ~$19.8M backlog amortization, $2.5M integration), and the effective tax rate is expected ~7–9% (Q3 8.4%, YTD 7.9%) with little U.S. federal cash tax owed in FY26.Commercial Metals Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.85B | 7.80B | 7.93B | 8.80B | 8.91B | 6.73B |
| Gross Profit | 392.81M | 1.22B | 1.36B | 1.81B | 1.86B | 1.11B |
| EBITDA | 865.35M | 438.92M | 963.93M | 1.38B | 1.74B | 753.53M |
| Net Income | 595.11M | 84.66M | 485.49M | 859.76M | 1.22B | 412.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.80B | 7.17B | 6.82B | 6.64B | 6.24B | 4.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 559.76M | 1.04B | 857.92M | 592.33M | 672.60M | 497.75M |
| Total Debt | 3.40B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.15B | 1.50B | 1.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.26B | 2.98B | 2.52B | 2.52B | 2.95B | 2.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.53B | 4.19B | 4.30B | 4.12B | 3.29B | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 405.04M | 312.25M | 575.44M | 737.44M | 250.32M | 44.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 918.23M | 715.07M | 899.71M | 1.34B | 700.31M | 228.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.99B | -346.77M | -323.00M | -835.23M | -684.72M | -162.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.74B | -183.44M | -313.76M | -599.48M | 165.31M | -109.39M |
Commercial Metals Company Technical Analysis
Positive
66.17
Price Trends
71.77
Positive
70.61
Positive
67.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
51.64
Neutral
16.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.99, below the 50-day MA of 71.77, and below the 200-day MA of 67.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMC.
Commercial Metals Company Risk Analysis
Commercial Metals Company disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Commercial Metals Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Commercial Metals Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.91B | 15.54 | 4.74% | 7.02% | -7.33% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $8.22B | 13.83 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
62 Neutral | $7.68B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 4.46% | -47.34% | |
60 Neutral | $5.05B | 8.14 | 4.48% | ― | -5.87% | -81.34% | |
52 Neutral | $6.14B | -4.50 | -20.91% | ― | 1.58% | 3.88% | |
41 Neutral | $1.22B | -3.59 | -12.83% | ― | 2.16% | 20.46% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
69.20
19.79
40.04%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
9.95
2.53
34.10%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.15
1.37
49.12%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
31.09
3.48
12.59%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
0.94
-0.45
-32.52%
TX
Ternium SA
44.44
15.31
52.55%
Commercial Metals Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Commercial Metals Posts Strong Fiscal Q3 Earnings Surge
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
CMC reported strong fiscal third-quarter results for the period ended May 31, 2026, with net earnings rising to $173 million, or $1.55 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings reaching $193 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, more than doubling y...
Dividends
Commercial Metals Declares 247th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Jun 24, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Commercial Metals Company announced that its board of directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, marking the company’s 247th consecutive quarterly payout. The dividend is scheduled to be paid o...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Commercial Metals Names Mike Dumais to Board of Directors
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company announced the appointment of Michael “Mike” Dumais as a Class II director, effective June 23, 2026, expanding its board from nine to ten members, nine of whom are independent. Dumais, a form...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Commercial Metals posts strong Q2 results, boosts dividend
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Commercial Metals Company reported strong results for its fiscal second quarter ended February 28, 2026, with net earnings rising to $93.0 million, or $0.83 per diluted share, on $2.1 billion in sales, and adjusted earnings reaching $130.1 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.