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Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)
NASDAQ:CLNE
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Clean Energy Fuels
(NASDAQ:CLNE)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
CLNE scores mid-range primarily because stronger cash flow and a significantly improved balance sheet are offset by sharply weaker profitability and ongoing losses. Earnings call guidance and execution milestones (higher adjusted EBITDA outlook, cost reductions, volume growth targets, and no new borrowing) modestly support the score, while technicals are largely neutral and valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet health and liquidity
A materially delevered balance sheet and large cash position provide durable financial flexibility: lower interest burden, capacity to fund capex and project buildouts, and optionality to avoid new borrowing. This reduces solvency risk and supports multi-quarter execution pacing.
Improved cash generation and positive free cash flow
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow strengthens self-funding of growth and debt service. That cash-generation step-up supports disciplined capex funding, planned upstream investments, and continued debt reduction without relying on capital markets for routine needs.
Scale and execution of RNG projects and commercial contracts
Large, operational RNG projects and near-term volume growth create durable supply and commercial evidence. Scale enables contract wins and municipal partnerships, helps capture environmental attributes, and supports margin improvement as upstream facilities optimize over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Sustained GAAP losses and weak profitability
Large, persistent GAAP losses and negative operating margins signal fundamentally weak earnings power. Even with positive adjusted EBITDA, recurring GAAP losses erode returns on equity, constrain reinvestment capacity, and leave the company exposed if cash generation softens.
Margin sustainability and fuel-spread exposure
Very low gross margins make economics sensitive to commodity spreads and pricing competition. If gas-to-oil spreads compress or competitive pricing reduces environmental-credit capture, fleet payback periods extend, slowing conversions and pressuring long-term volume and margin durability.
Dependence on policy incentives and credit retention
Material reliance on regulatory credits and tax incentives introduces structural volatility to reported EBITDA and project economics. Expiration or weaker credit retention on renewals reduces realized margins and makes future cash flows and project returns more policy-dependent.
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$471.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth2.59%
EPS Growth-192.73%
CountryUS
Employees577
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding219,430,950
10 Day Avg. Volume1,177,867
30 Day Avg. Volume1,251,991
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio7.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside132.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$427.84M
Clean Energy Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionClean Energy Fuels Corp. provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets and related fueling solutions, primarily in the United States and Canada. It supplies renewable natural gas (RNG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for medium and heavy-duty vehicles; and offers operation and maintenance services for public and private vehicle fleet customer stations. The company also designs, builds, operates, and maintains fueling stations; and sells and services compressors and other equipment that are used in RNG production and fueling stations. In addition, it transports and sells CNG, RNG, and LNG through virtual natural gas pipelines and interconnects; sells U.S. federal, state, and local government credits, such as RNG as a vehicle fuel, including Renewable Identification Numbers and Low Carbon Fuel Standards credits; and obtains federal, state, and local credits, grants, and incentives. Further, the company focuses on developing, owning, and operating dairy and other livestock waste RNG projects. It serves heavy-duty trucking, airports, refuse, public transit, industrial, and institutional energy users, as well as government fleets. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 1,000 fleet customers operating approximately 48,000 vehicles; and owned, operated, or supplied approximately 548 fueling stations in 42 states in the United States and 25 fueling stations in Canada. Clean Energy Fuels Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyClean Energy Fuels generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is the sale of natural gas and renewable natural gas (RNG) to its customers at fueling stations, which includes both retail and wholesale transactions. Additionally, the company earns income from long-term contracts with fleet operators who commit to using its fueling services, creating stable cash flows. Clean Energy Fuels also benefits from partnerships with various municipalities and private companies to develop and operate fueling infrastructure, which can include government grants and incentives for clean energy initiatives. Furthermore, the company may receive revenue from the sale of carbon credits and environmental attributes associated with its RNG production, enhancing its earnings potential. Overall, the company's revenue model is supported by its focus on sustainability and the growing demand for cleaner transportation fuels.
Clean Energy Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down earnings by business segment, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus.
Breaks down earnings by business segment, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyClean Energy Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple operational and strategic positives: an adjusted EBITDA beat, sizable upstream project milestones (South Fork and East Valley), debt repayment and strong liquidity, constructive 2026 guidance (higher adjusted EBITDA and volume growth), and supportive policy signals. Key challenges remain—large GAAP losses driven by non-cash charges, earlier weather-related RNG supply shortfalls, slower truck adoption in 2025, one-off SG&A costs, and competitive pressure on contract renewals and credit retention. Management provided clear plans for cost reductions, disciplined CapEx, and a path to upstream profitability. Overall the positives around execution, project scale-up, improved guidance, balance sheet actions, and favorable policy developments modestly outweigh the near-term financial and market headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Beat and Financial Outlook
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $67.6 million, exceeding the top end of guidance ($65 million) by ~4%. Company provided 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $70 million to $75 million and revenue guidance of $420 million to $440 million.
Debt Reduction and Liquidity
Repaid $65 million of debt in Q4 2025, reducing leverage and lowering future interest expense by roughly $6 million for 2026. Ended 2025 with $156.1 million in cash and investments and do not plan additional borrowings in 2026.
RNG Volume Scale and Growth Guidance
Delivered 237.4 million gallons of RNG in 2025 (about 97% of target). Q4 2025 RNG deliveries were 64.1 million gallons (+5% vs Q3 2025 and +3% vs Q4 2024). 2026 RNG volume guidance is 250 million gallons with total fuel volumes ~324 million gallons.
Major Upstream Project Milestones
Brought South Fork Dairy (Texas) online—largest operating RNG project in the portfolio and fully consolidated—and began injecting gas at East Valley Dairy (Idaho), the largest RNG project in the portfolio (JV with BP, processes manure from ~37,000 cows). Company now has eight operating RNG projects and three in construction via Moss Energy Works.
Downstream Commercial Wins and Station RNG Penetration
Renewed/expanded contracts including WM (85 stations to fuel ~8,000 refuse trucks) and city/municipal wins (Scottsdale, Phoenix, Washington, D.C., Nashville, Arlington VA, Fort Smith AR). Approximately 89% of company-controlled fueling infrastructure is running RNG.
Upstream Business Turning Positive
Management expects significant improvements in RNG upstream GAAP losses and anticipates the upstream business to generate positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026; internal ramp target for upstream adjusted EBITDA is roughly $3M to $5M across the year as facilities optimize.
Cost and Capital Discipline
Expect SG&A to decline ~10% (or over $10 million) in 2026, to an approximate run rate of $25 million per quarter. Fuel distribution CapEx expected at ~$25 million and RNG upstream investments at ~$40 million for 2026; plan to fund with cash and operating cash flow (targeting ~$50 million operating cash flow in 2026).
Supportive Policy Backdrop
Management cites constructive signals for LCFS and RIN credit fundamentals (CARB Q3 2025 showed the first net deficit since 2021) and progress on 45Z clean fuel production credit rulemaking, which could improve project economics when finalized.
Negative Updates
Large GAAP Losses and Non-Cash Charges
GAAP loss for 2025 was $222 million, slightly above expectations driven primarily by non-cash interest charges associated with debt paydown and loan expiration. 2026 GAAP net loss guidance is a loss of $71 million to $66 million.
RNG Volume Shortfall and Weather Impact
2025 RNG production was ~97% of target with the shortfall traced to extreme weather in Q1 2025 that hampered third-party RNG supply; management noted ongoing, albeit reduced, weather-related operating risk.
Slower-than-Expected Heavy-Duty Truck Adoption
Adoption of the Cummins X15N engine and corresponding heavy-duty truck purchases were slower in 2025 due to challenging freight market dynamics, delaying some fleet conversions to RNG-powered trucks.
One-Off SG&A Pressure in Q4
SG&A expenses in Q4 were approximately $4 million above normal run rate due to one-time personnel and station exit costs, contributing to higher near-term operating expenses.
Competitive Pressure on Contract Renewals and Credit Retention
Some major contract renewals resulted in retaining fewer environmental credits (competitive pressure), which is expected to reduce fuel distribution adjusted EBITDA from the robust 2025 level, though margins remain described as 'adequate.'
Expiration of Alternative Fuel Tax Credit (Comparability Headwind)
The alternative fuel tax credit expired at end of 2024; 2024 EBITDA included ~$24 million of tax credit income (including ~$6 million in Q4 2024), making year-over-year comparability less favorable and reducing reported 2025 revenues/EBITDA relative to 2024 if credits were included.
Market Risk: Fuel Spread Tightening
Management is cautious about the natural gas-to-oil spread; narrowing spreads would elongate fleet payback periods for RNG trucks and could be a headwind to adoption if the trend persists.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $70–$75 million and revenues of $420–$440 million, with a GAAP net loss of $71–$66 million; they expect to deliver ~250 million gallons of RNG and ~324 million total fuel gallons, with upstream production of 7–9 million gallons from eight operating dairies (South Fork fully consolidated) and three projects still in construction. SG&A is expected to decline ~10% (over $10 million) to a run rate of about $25 million per quarter (including stock comp), capital expenditures are forecast at roughly $25 million for fuel distribution and $40 million for RNG upstream, operating cash flow is projected at about $50 million, and no new borrowings are contemplated. The company ended 2025 with $156.1 million in cash and investments after a $65 million debt paydown, expects ~ $6 million lower interest expense in 2026, will not PIK interest (vs. $15 million PIK’d in 2025), and expects upstream to move toward positive adjusted EBITDA (management cited a $3–$5 million range as ramping). Management also noted 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $67.6 million, RNG delivered in 2025 of 237.4 million gallons (~97% of target), and Q4 2025 RNG of 64.1 million gallons (up ~5% sequentially and ~3% year-over-year).Clean Energy Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are mixed. Cash flow improved (2025 operating cash flow ~$86M and free cash flow ~$60M) and leverage fell sharply with debt reduced to ~$99M and debt-to-equity ~0.18, supporting liquidity and flexibility. However, profitability deteriorated materially in 2025 with gross margin dropping to ~4% and net margin around -52%, keeping earnings power as the main weakness.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile but showed strong growth in 2025 (+63% vs. 2024). However, profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025: gross margin fell to ~4% (from ~20% in 2024) and losses widened materially (net margin about -52% vs. about -20% in 2024). Across the period, the company has remained structurally unprofitable with negative operating margins most years, which is the primary drag despite top-line resilience.28
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved meaningfully in 2025 with total debt dropping to ~$99M from ~$365M in 2024, bringing debt-to-equity down to ~0.18 (from ~0.51). Equity remains sizable (~$559M in 2025), supporting balance-sheet flexibility. The key weakness is continued negative returns on equity, which worsened in 2025 alongside the larger net loss—suggesting the balance sheet is healthier than the earnings power.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved: operating cash flow rose to ~$86M in 2025 (from ~$65M in 2024) and free cash flow turned solidly positive at ~$60M (vs. roughly breakeven/negative in 2024). Free cash flow has been inconsistent over time (notably negative in 2023), but the recent step-up is a clear strength. A watch item is that operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of obligations (coverage ratio ~0.57 in 2025), even with improved cash flow.67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 424.83M | 415.87M | 425.16M | 420.16M | 255.65M |
| Gross Profit | 17.97M | 83.58M | 35.87M | 57.75M | -5.14M |
| EBITDA | -74.16M | -4.08M | -31.92M | 1.61M | -44.42M |
| Net Income | -222.02M | -83.07M | -99.50M | -58.73M | -93.15M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.06B | 1.24B | 1.26B | 1.08B | 957.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 158.31M | 217.48M | 263.13M | 265.52M | 229.17M |
| Total Debt | 98.90M | 365.13M | 360.51M | 201.76M | 82.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 491.65M | 524.36M | 525.81M | 354.89M | 201.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 559.42M | 713.27M | 726.77M | 719.99M | 747.08M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.85M | -418.00K | -77.50M | 13.23M | 12.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.53M | 64.58M | 43.78M | 66.73M | 41.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 63.10M | -77.68M | -202.01M | -148.54M | -207.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -82.11M | -1.94M | 139.12M | 101.65M | 152.83M |
Clean Energy Fuels Technical Analysis
Negative
2.15
Price Trends
2.33
Negative
2.34
Negative
2.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
37.85
Neutral
13.85
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLNE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.32, below the 50-day MA of 2.33, and below the 200-day MA of 2.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLNE.
Clean Energy Fuels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.75B | 4.84 | 28.59% | ― | -10.11% | -7.00% | |
67 Neutral | $415.92M | 2.76 | 19.81% | 6.14% | 1.04% | 111.69% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $471.78M | -2.09 | -38.08% | ― | 2.59% | -192.73% | |
53 Neutral | $1.17B | -2.09 | -23.84% | 3.30% | -15.32% | -442.37% | |
49 Neutral | $835.92M | 19.25 | -67.36% | 10.09% | -10.27% | 131.17% | |
49 Neutral | $182.57M | -4.29 | 26.07% | ― | -30.91% | 29.09% |
* Energy Sector Average
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.