Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF1.97B
• Dividend Yield: 1%
• Average Volume (3M): 146.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -6.87%
• EPS Growth: -74.29%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 14,276
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 100,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 118,901
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 146,224
• PEG Ratio: -0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: CHF19.93
• Price Target Upside: 1.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF22.50 ▲(14.27% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (declining profitability and cash flow) and a high valuation (P/E ~69 with low yield). Technicals are supportive on trend (price above major moving averages, positive MACD) but overbought readings (RSI ~73, Stoch ~96) temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Market position & product diversification

Stadler's broad product range across high-speed, regional and urban segments diversifies revenue and reduces exposure to any single market. This durable portfolio and sector specialization support sustained contract wins and long-term relevance as cities and operators upgrade fleets over 2–6 months and beyond.

Recurring service and aftermarket revenue

Long-term service contracts and spare-parts sales create recurring, higher-margin revenue and improve lifetime customer stickiness. This steady, contractual cash flow cushions new-build cyclicality, enhances visibility into medium-term earnings, and supports reinvestment in product development and service capabilities.

Manageable leverage and liquidity buffer

A moderate debt burden and solid cash reserves give Stadler financial flexibility to fund working capital and bid on large rolling-stock contracts. This balance-sheet standing reduces near-term refinancing risk and helps sustain operations and project delivery through industry contract cycles over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

A falling revenue trend indicates weakening demand or execution issues on contracts, which can erode backlog conversion and bargaining power in tenders. Persistent top-line pressure undermines scale benefits, limits reinvestment capacity, and raises risk to medium-term growth trajectories and order-book health.

Weakening cash generation

Deteriorating operating and free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, warranty and working capital needs tied to large projects. Sustained weak cash conversion forces greater reliance on external funding, increasing financing costs and constraining the firm's ability to scale or absorb contract cost overruns long term.

Thin profitability and lower ROE

Very thin operating and net margins and a depressed ROE limit the company's buffer against cost overruns typical in rail contracts. Low profitability reduces retained earnings for investment, weakens competitive positioning in price-driven tenders, and may impair long-term returns to shareholders.

Stadler Rail AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Rolling Stock; and Service and Components. The company's Rolling Stock segment manufactures high-speed and intercity trains, suburban and regional transport trains, passenger coaches, light rails, trams, and metros locomotives, as well as city transport and tailor-made vehicles. Its Service and Component segment provides modernization and revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, upgrading and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Stadler Rail AG generates revenue through the sale of rail vehicles and related services, including maintenance and spare parts. The company's primary revenue streams consist of direct sales of trains and trams to public transportation authorities and private operators, as well as long-term service contracts that ensure ongoing support and maintenance for their products. Additionally, Stadler Rail AG may engage in partnerships with local governments and other transportation entities to secure contracts for public transport projects. The company's focus on innovation and sustainability has also positioned it to benefit from increasing investments in eco-friendly transportation solutions, potentially enhancing its earnings through new projects and collaborations.

Stadler Rail AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stadler Rail AG shows solid asset management and liquidity, but recent declines in revenue, profitability, and cash flow generation pose concerns. The company needs to enhance its profitability and cash flow management to maintain financial stability and support future growth.

Income Statement

Stadler Rail AG has shown fluctuating revenue over the years, with a decline in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 11.39%, indicating moderate profitability. However, the net profit margin dropped significantly to about 1.18%, driven by lower net income. The EBIT and EBITDA margins for 2024 were 3.09% and 7.37%, respectively, showing thin operational profitability. While previous periods had higher profitability, the recent decline is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a relatively stable balance sheet with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.21 in 2024, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio was around 12.63%, showing a lower proportion of equity in total assets. Return on equity decreased to about 5.20%, reflecting reduced profitability and efficiency in using equity. Despite a solid liquidity position with significant cash reserves, the decrease in equity and ROE suggests potential risk.

Cash Flow

Stadler Rail AG experienced a sharp decline in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow also decreased significantly, indicating weaker cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio was roughly 1.20, suggesting adequate cash conversion. However, the overall decline in cash flow performance suggests potential liquidity risks if the trend continues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.36B	3.26B	3.61B	3.75B	3.63B	3.08B
Gross Profit	379.76M	370.91M	404.64M	385.41M	402.02M	315.34M
EBITDA	223.31M	239.81M	320.14M	254.06M	324.44M	270.75M
Net Income	31.54M	38.42M	124.32M	72.90M	133.66M	137.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.58B	5.86B	5.01B	4.40B	4.60B	4.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	517.71M	1.26B	1.09B	831.68M	1.15B	928.90M
Total Debt	924.51M	892.83M	688.10M	1.06B	1.50B	1.54B
Total Liabilities	4.81B	5.08B	4.19B	3.62B	3.72B	3.65B
Stockholders Equity	724.23M	739.24M	790.28M	772.58M	875.21M	855.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-189.69M	46.09M	661.00M	256.87M	326.83M	-492.18M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.37M	286.40M	905.28M	441.35M	503.96M	-203.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-252.67M	-225.79M	-152.37M	-207.00M	-154.33M	-290.41M
Financing Cash Flow	933.00K	99.16M	-447.43M	-526.98M	-110.29M	677.08M

Stadler Rail AG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:SRAIL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.08, below the 50-day MA of 19.79, and below the 200-day MA of 20.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CH:SRAIL.

Stadler Rail AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	75 Outperform	CHF5.20B	19.05	23.37%	2.90%	5.79%	13.20%
KARN	74 Outperform	CHF2.24B	30.17	―	2.17%	11.43%	6.46%
BUCN	65 Neutral	CHF3.56B	15.79	―	2.99%	-11.64%	-24.17%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
INRN	59 Neutral	CHF1.88B	31.67	―	1.46%	-3.67%	-12.95%
SRAIL	58 Neutral	CHF1.97B	62.43	―	1.00%	-6.87%	-74.29%
GF	54 Neutral	CHF4.38B	15.81	―	2.53%	-24.42%	32.48%