Leonteq AG (LEON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF205.34M
• Dividend Yield: 21.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 46.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -4.06%
• EPS Growth: -109.73%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 583
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): -2.43
• Shares Outstanding: 18,494,242
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 47,027
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 46,482
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): CHF236.46M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF11.00 ▼(-19.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is held down primarily by weak 2025 financial performance and elevated balance-sheet leverage, alongside a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting factors include management’s guidance for a return to profitability in 2026 supported by cost actions and a strong capital ratio, while valuation signals are mixed due to loss-making earnings and an indicated absence of a 2025 dividend.

Positive Factors

Capital Strength (FRTB)

Early implementation of FRTB materially strengthened regulatory capital (CET1 16.9%), giving Leonteq a durable buffer against market shocks and regulatory constraints. This improves funding flexibility, supports issuance capacity and optional capital actions if earnings recover.

Cost Base and Efficiency

Meaningful and persistent cost reductions—lower personnel costs, headcount and contractors—structurally reduce the break-even level. Lower fixed costs improve the company's ability to return to profitability with modest revenue recovery and support cash generation durability.

Platform Growth and Recurring Flows

Rising issuance volumes, increased client transactions and stronger market share indicate scalable platform adoption. Greater recurring AMC and retail-flow traction diversify revenues and deepen client stickiness, supporting steadier fee generation over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High and Volatile Leverage

Elevated and volatile leverage constrains financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and covenant risk if earnings remain weak. Capital structure swings reduce management's ability to invest or absorb shocks, making earnings recovery more fragile over the medium term.

Revenue Decline and Profitability Deterioration

A sustained top-line decline and IFRS loss weaken margin sustainability and limit internally generated capital. Persistent revenue weakness undermines the leverage benefits from cost cuts and delays the firm’s ability to rebuild resilient, predictable earnings and cash flows.

Trading/Hedging Drag & Margin Compression

Dependence on trading and hedging creates volatile income and the observed hedging drag plus structural margin compression reduce earnings predictability. If realized volatility remains below implied, trading contributions may stay weak, pressuring long-term profitability and cash generation.

Leonteq AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Leonteq AG provides structured investment products and long-term savings and retirement solutions in Switzerland and internationally. It operates through Investment Solutions and Insurance & Wealth Planning Solutions segments. The company manufactures and distributes structured investment products. It also offers savings, investment, and drawdown products; and digital platform that enables unit-linked retail products with financial guarantees, as well as hedging for structured products. The company offers its services to platform partners under the terms of cooperation agreements, as well as distributes its products to retail investors through institutional and financial intermediaries. The company was formerly known as EFG Financial Products Holding AG and changed its name to Leonteq AG in June 2013. Leonteq AG was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Leonteq AG generates revenue primarily through the issuance and distribution of structured financial products. The company's revenue model is based on several key streams: first, it earns fees from the structuring and distribution of these products, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of clients. Second, Leonteq benefits from the management of assets linked to its structured products, often charging management fees. Additionally, the company engages in market-making activities, which can provide further income through spreads on trades. Significant partnerships with banks and financial institutions enhance Leonteq's distribution capabilities, while its technology platform drives efficiency and scalability in its operations, contributing to overall profitability.

Leonteq AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is weak and volatile: 2025 saw declining revenue and a swing to losses, while the balance sheet shows very high and unstable leverage. Operating and free cash flow turned positive in 2025, but cash generation has been inconsistent and free cash flow fell sharply versus 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025, with a swing to a net loss and negative operating profit, despite a still-healthy gross margin. Revenue has trended down meaningfully from 2022–2025 (including a ~23% decline in 2025), showing weak top-line momentum. Strengths include historically strong profitability in 2021–2022 and decent gross profitability in 2025, but current earnings quality is pressured by the loss-making year and a clear margin compression versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks like the key balance-sheet risk: debt levels fluctuate dramatically year to year, and debt relative to equity is very high in 2025 (and also elevated in several prior years). Returns to shareholders also weakened, turning negative in 2025 after modest/stronger levels previously. Equity is meaningful in absolute terms, but the combination of high leverage and volatility in the capital structure reduces financial flexibility and raises risk if earnings remain under pressure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025, with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, which is a constructive shift versus negative operating/free cash flow in 2023–2024. However, free cash flow fell steeply in 2025 versus 2024, and cash flow has been highly volatile over the period (including very large negative operating/free cash flow in 2022 and very strong positive figures in 2020–2021). Overall, cash flow is currently positive but lacks consistency, limiting confidence in durability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	181.90M	214.47M	256.88M	466.75M	428.74M
Gross Profit	111.60M	88.97M	256.88M	433.25M	393.09M
EBITDA	12.94M	52.16M	64.30M	232.02M	214.74M
Net Income	-33.70M	5.84M	20.60M	156.45M	155.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.16B	10.67B	9.26B	12.33B	14.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.07B	4.50B	4.64B	3.81B	3.09B
Total Debt	5.53B	89.32M	4.96B	5.23B	6.58B
Total Liabilities	10.47B	9.86B	8.48B	11.46B	13.64B
Stockholders Equity	692.11M	803.83M	780.13M	870.03M	802.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.56M	-43.21M	-316.25M	-1.85B	2.12B
Operating Cash Flow	45.93M	-16.77M	-313.94M	-1.83B	2.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-17.35M	-26.41M	-29.50M	-25.86M	-23.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.54M	-40.56M	-116.56M	-93.06M	-32.78M

Leonteq AG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:LEON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.47, above the 50-day MA of 13.44, and below the 200-day MA of 16.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CH:LEON.

Leonteq AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CFT	76 Outperform	CHF2.14B	16.65	27.64%	2.36%	9.07%	18.07%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
VONN	66 Neutral	CHF3.91B	14.06	11.11%	4.66%	3.80%	15.49%
EFGN	63 Neutral	CHF5.70B	17.80	19.05%	3.15%	-0.27%	21.41%
SQN	62 Neutral	CHF6.10B	19.98	―	1.22%	18.76%	20.08%
VATN	61 Neutral	CHF2.64B	17.05	5.75%	3.88%	-12.47%	2.74%
LEON	45 Neutral	CHF205.34M	-5.98	―	21.87%	-4.06%	-109.73%

Leonteq AG Corporate Events

Leonteq falls to 2025 loss but bolsters capital and maps buyback

Leonteq AG reported a 2025 loss as lower commission and service income and a weaker trading result outweighed significant cost cuts, although client activity recovered in the second half and transaction volumes rose. The company maintained a strong CET1 capital ratio of 16.9% after an early transition to a stricter regulatory regime and will propose Felix Oegerli as new independent chairman at the 2026 AGM.

Operating income fell to CHF 172.3 million from CHF 238.5 million, while underlying operating expenses dropped 16%, leading to an underlying pre-tax loss of CHF 21.5 million and an IFRS pre-tax loss of CHF 33.3 million. In line with its capital return policy, the board will skip a 2025 dividend and plans a share buyback from early 2027, while continuing to roll out new AMC offerings, grow its retail flow franchise and use BaFin licence extensions to drive revenue growth and a return to profitability.

Leonteq’s adoption of the SA-FRTB standardised market risk framework cut risk-weighted assets, lifted capital ratios above guidance and concluded regulatory discussions on a bespoke liquidity regime ahead of schedule. Management says the completed “resizing and optimisation” phase now allows a pivot to expansion, with a targeted improvement in recurring revenues, broader market reach and a new leadership structure intended to support meeting mid-term financial goals by 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:LEON) stock is a Hold with a CHF14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Leonteq AG stock, see the CH:LEON Stock Forecast page.

Leonteq Wins BaFin Licence Extension to Launch Retail Flow Business in Germany

Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has granted Leonteq Securities (Europe) GmbH an extension to its licence, allowing it to support Leonteq Securities AG’s trading activities and paving the way for the rollout of its retail flow business in the German market. The initiative builds on Leonteq’s rapid expansion in Switzerland, where it now offers more than 10,000 exchange-listed leveraged products on SIX and BX Swiss, has captured a 7% product market share on SIX within eight months, and ranks first in the Payoff Market Making Index for execution quality; management describes the retail flow push as Leonteq’s largest recent investment and a key milestone in its strategy to become a leading issuer of exchange-traded structured products beyond Switzerland, with German investors set to gain direct access to its technology-driven platform and local expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:LEON) stock is a Hold with a CHF14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Leonteq AG stock, see the CH:LEON Stock Forecast page.

Leonteq Completes FRTB Transition Amid Strategic Shifts

Leonteq AG has completed its transition to the SA-FRTB regulatory framework, achieving a CET1 ratio of over 15% by November 2025. Despite improvements in customer activity, the company anticipates an underlying loss for the year due to reduced hedging contributions. The company has made strides in restoring customer confidence and expanding its revenue base, although it remains sensitive to market conditions. Leonteq is also undergoing strategic changes, including selling its Japan branch and increasing its Lisbon service center workforce, aiming to reduce costs and improve profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:LEON) stock is a Hold with a CHF15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Leonteq AG stock, see the CH:LEON Stock Forecast page.