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Vontobel Holding AG (CH:VONN)
:VONN
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Vontobel Holding AG
(VONN)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
CHF73.00
▲(7.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
The score is primarily constrained by elevated balance-sheet risk from the sharp 2025 leverage increase despite solid profitability and strong absolute cash generation. Offsetting this, technicals are supportive (uptrend with positive momentum), valuation is reasonable with a strong dividend yield, and the latest earnings call reinforced capital strength and efficiency progress, tempered by net interest income and institutional flow headwinds.
Positive Factors
Capital and liquidity cushions
Very strong regulatory capital (CET1 19.7%) and high liquidity (LCR 150%, ~CHF25bn liquid assets) provide durable buffers against market stress, support risk-taking in higher-margin products, and reduce the need for distressed capital actions over the medium term.
Efficiency program momentum
Material execution on a CHF100m efficiency program with ~CHF84m exit‑rate savings realized improves structural cost competitiveness. Sustained cost discipline can lower the cost/income baseline and make future revenue variability less damaging to profitability and cash generation.
Strong cash generation and AUM inflows
High absolute free cash flow and renewed revenue growth alongside positive net new money and AUM expansion support durable funding of dividends, reinvestment and selective M&A. Consistent cash generation underpins strategic flexibility even if flows are lumpy across segments.
Negative Factors
Sharp leverage step‑up
A sudden material increase in leverage meaningfully raises refinancing and interest rate risks, constrains strategic optionality, and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage increases vulnerability to adverse market or regulatory shocks over the medium term.
Institutional and boutique outflows
Persistent outflows from institutional clients and specific boutiques signal franchise concentration and product positioning risks. If outflows continue, fee income and scale advantages could erode, pressuring operating income and requiring further repositioning or investment in capabilities.
Margin pressure and net interest income decline
A sizable decline in net interest income and compressed operating margins reflect structural revenue mix headwinds and weaker operating leverage. Sustained margin pressure reduces retained earnings and may force either higher volumes, repricing, or further cost cuts to preserve returns.
Vontobel Holding AG (VONN) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF3.80B
Dividend Yield4.66%
Average Volume (3M)30.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth3.80%
EPS Growth15.49%
CountryCH
Employees1,958
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.42
Shares Outstanding56,875,000
10 Day Avg. Volume33,209
30 Day Avg. Volume30,692
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.67
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.35
P/FCF Ratio2.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF68.25Price Target Upside0.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF1.45B
Vontobel Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVontobel Holding AG provides various financial services to private and institutional clients. The company operates through Asset Management, Platforms & Services, Wealth Management, and Digital Investing segments. The Wealth Management segment offers managed solutions, advisory services, and investment products; and financial planning and consulting, pension planning, succession planning, and estate planning solutions, as well as real estate financing and Lombard loans. The Asset Management segment provides equities, fixed income, multi asset, and fund solutions. The Platforms & Services segment offers various platforms, such as EAMNet, an integrated and centralized product and services platform that provides trading, and reports to research services; deritrade, a multi-issuer platform that offers designing and issuing bespoke structured products; cosmofunding, a money and capital market platform that provides securitization of classic loan and private placement; investerest, a social investing market place; derifactory, a white-labeling platform for structured products; and electronic trading solutions for professionals, as well as structured investments, funds, investment strategy/research, EAM, ESG, and ESG insights and news solutions. The Digital Investing segment provides Vontobel Volt, a digital wealth management platform; investerest, a social investing market place that combines and standardizes the entire strategy and investment spectrum; and structured and leverage investment services. Vontobel Holding AG was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyVontobel generates revenue through multiple key streams within its business model. Primarily, the company earns fees from asset management services, which include management fees for investment funds and performance fees based on fund performance. Additionally, Vontobel benefits from commissions and trading revenues in its investment banking segment, where it engages in market-making and the issuance of structured products. The firm also generates income from private banking services, which encompass wealth management, financial planning, and advisory services for high-net-worth individuals. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and corporations further enhance its revenue potential, as do the strong performance of its investment products in volatile markets.
Vontobel Holding AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and strategic progress—strong profit growth, AUM expansion, robust capital generation, significant efficiency gains, and notable flagship fund inflows—against material macro headwinds (30% decline in net interest income), FX translation losses, and outflows in two boutiques and the institutional segment. Management emphasized that efficiency savings, boutique realignments, and product focus (notably fixed income and structured solutions) position the firm to sustain momentum. Overall, positive execution and capital strength outweigh the near‑term revenue headwinds and selective outflows.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Profit Growth
Net profit of CHF 280 million, up 5% year‑on‑year; profit before tax increased to CHF 364 million.
Assets under Management Expansion
AUM rose to CHF 241 billion, up 5% year‑on‑year, supported by positive net inflows and market performance.
Strong Net New Money
Net new money totaled CHF 4.2 billion (up from CHF 2.6 billion prior year); private clients delivered CHF 5.8 billion of inflows (c.5.2% annualized growth).
Boutique and Flagship Fund Inflows
Four of six investment boutiques delivered combined net new money growth of 6.7% in 2025; notable flagship inflows of CHF 1.8 billion into credit opportunities and CHF 1.4 billion into emerging markets debt.
Capital Strength
CET1 ratio of 19.7%, up 3.6 percentage points year‑on‑year (comfortably above regulatory minimums and internal targets).
Efficiency Program Progress
CHF 100 million efficiency program ahead of plan: CHF 84 million exit‑rate savings realized, over 80% of targeted savings achieved; cost/income ratio improved to 74.2% (adjusted to 72.9%).
Shareholder Returns and ROE
Board to propose dividend of CHF 3 per share (payout ratio ~60%); return on equity reached 12.2% (above estimated cost of equity ~9%).
Balance Sheet & Liquidity Resilience
Around CHF 25 billion of liquid assets (~70% of balance sheet) and liquidity coverage ratio of 150%; successful CHF 200 million senior unsecured bond issuance with strong demand.
Tangible Book Value Growth
Tangible book value per share increased 15% to CHF 33.86 — strongest annual increase in more than a decade; tangible equity per share up >200% since 2014 including dividends.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Income Compression
Net interest income declined c.30% due to successive rate cuts, causing a CHF 34 million headwind to results.
Currency Headwinds
Strong Swiss franc reduced reported income by CHF 27 million and lowered AUM by CHF 10.1 billion due to translation into reporting currency.
Institutional Client Outflows and Income Pressure
Institutional clients net new money was negative CHF 1.6 billion in 2025 and segment operating income fell 7%, reflecting continued recovery needs in institutional flows.
Boutique Outflows and Style Headwinds
Two boutiques (quantitative investment and quality growth) experienced significant outflows — retail outflows hit quality growth amid AI/mega‑cap rotation; systematic strategies challenged by stop‑and‑go macro conditions.
Modest Operating Income Growth
Group operating income increased only 1% to CHF 1.4 billion (3% on constant FX), reflecting FX and interest rate pressures.
One‑Off and Integration Costs
One‑offs (costs to achieve and IHAG integration) totaled CHF 19 million in 2025 with an expected c. CHF 18 million of additional cost‑to‑achieve in 2026; these dampened reported cost improvements.
Cost/Income Still Above Target
Although improved, reported cost/income ratio remains at 74.2% (target is below 72%); costs were flat year‑on‑year due to reinvestment and one‑offs.
Equity AUM Weakness
Institutional equities AUM declined (management commentary referenced a c.10% half‑on‑half drop), suggesting pockets of weak flows or performance in equity franchises.
Regulatory/Capital Uncertainty
Management flagged potential regulatory changes (post‑sector consolidation debate) that could require additional capital, which is a planning consideration despite strong current CET1.
Company Guidance
Vontobel’s guidance emphasized capital strength, efficiency and targeted growth: the Board will propose a CHF 3.00/share dividend (60% payout for 2025; through‑the‑cycle target >50%), the CHF 100m efficiency program is to be completed by end‑2026 with ~CHF 84m exit‑rate savings already realized (>80% of target claimed) and a goal to push the cost/income ratio below 72% (reported 74.2% in 2025; 72.9% adjusted). Management highlighted capital and liquidity cushions — CET1 19.7% (vs 12% internal / 8% regulatory) and LCR 150% — and set growth ambitions of 4–6% institutional flows through the cycle and at least CHF 4bn annual net inflows, while maintaining an effective tax rate guidance of 22–23%. Reported financial metrics supporting the guidance included AUM CHF 241bn (+5%), net new money CHF 4.2bn (private clients CHF 5.8bn; institutional -CHF 1.6bn), net profit CHF 280m, PBT CHF 364m, operating income CHF 1.4bn, RoE 12.2%, tangible BVPS CHF 33.86 (+15%), ~CHF 25bn liquid assets and a CHF 200m senior bond issuance, with management prioritizing higher‑margin fixed income, private markets and selective inorganic opportunities while preserving capital flexibility.Vontobel Holding AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement is solid (2025 revenue +50% YoY; ~19% EBIT margin and ~14.9% net margin) and cash generation is strong in absolute terms (FCF ~1.41B, ~0.96x net income). However, margins compressed versus 2024, cash flows have been volatile historically, and the balance sheet deteriorated sharply in 2025 with a major leverage step-up (debt-to-equity ~6.52x), materially increasing financial risk.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (+50.0% YoY) after a choppy 2022–2024 path (including a decline in 2022–2023). Profitability remains solid with EBIT margin around ~19% in 2025 and net margin ~14.9%, but margins have compressed versus 2024 (net margin ~18.7%, EBIT margin ~24.9%), indicating weaker operating leverage and/or higher costs despite higher revenue.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a sharp deterioration in leverage in 2025: total debt jumped to ~16.16B and debt-to-equity increased to ~6.52x (vs. ~0.29–0.61x in 2021–2024). While return on equity remains acceptable (~11.3% in 2025), the step-change in leverage meaningfully raises financial risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility.38
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation in 2025 is strong in absolute terms (operating cash flow ~1.48B; free cash flow ~1.41B), and free cash flow is broadly in line with earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.96x). However, cash flow has been volatile historically (negative operating/free cash flow in 2020 and 2023), and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in 2025, signaling lower year-over-year cash momentum despite the higher revenue base.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.54B | 1.42B | 1.30B | 1.67B | 1.95B |
| Gross Profit | 1.42B | 1.42B | 1.31B | 1.29B | 1.54B |
| EBITDA | 450.00M | 455.30M | 368.50M | 370.60M | 565.10M |
| Net Income | 280.10M | 266.10M | 214.70M | 229.80M | 373.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.74B | 32.86B | 29.15B | 30.51B | 32.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 12.47B | 9.89B | 11.01B | 17.19B |
| Total Debt | 16.16B | 644.80M | 806.70M | 1.22B | 629.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 32.26B | 30.63B | 27.05B | 28.49B | 30.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.48B | 2.23B | 2.09B | 2.02B | 2.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 303.00M | -74.80M | 871.70M | 508.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.48B | 356.80M | -11.40M | 937.70M | 570.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | 133.50M | 457.30M | -4.53B | 1.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -147.90M | -470.00M | -645.30M | 304.80M | -291.40M |
Vontobel Holding AG Technical Analysis
Positive
68.20
Price Trends
67.13
Positive
63.74
Positive
63.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.75
Positive
48.34
Neutral
51.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:VONN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.93, above the 50-day MA of 67.13, and above the 200-day MA of 63.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:VONN.
Vontobel Holding AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | CHF2.85B | 15.86 | 14.60% | 4.30% | 3.32% | 11.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | CHF3.80B | 13.66 | 11.11% | 4.66% | 3.80% | 15.49% | |
66 Neutral | CHF12.87B | 14.89 | ― | 4.14% | 1.02% | 131.90% | |
57 Neutral | CHF5.51B | 17.20 | 19.05% | 3.15% | -0.27% | 21.41% | |
54 Neutral | CHF2.85B | 17.06 | ― | 3.34% | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | CHF255.86M | -7.46 | ― | 21.87% | -4.06% | -109.73% |
* Financial Sector Average
CH:VONN
Vontobel Holding AG
68.20
5.40
8.61%
CH:BAER
Julius Baer Group Ltd
62.82
3.53
5.95%
CH:EFGN
EFG International AG
18.24
4.83
36.00%
CH:CMBN
Cembra Money Bank AG
97.15
3.04
3.23%
CH:LLBN
Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG
93.40
19.66
26.66%
CH:LEON
Leonteq AG
14.18
-1.10
-7.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.