Julius Baer Group Ltd (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF11.39B
• Dividend Yield: 4.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 441.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 1.02%
• EPS Growth: 131.90%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 7,595
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.27
• Shares Outstanding: 206,001,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 463,873
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 441,104
• PEG Ratio: -0.67
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.17
• P/FCF Ratio: -86.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: CHF67.03
• Price Target Upside: 20.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): CHF4.27B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF62.00 ▲(11.47% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held back primarily by inconsistent and recently weak cash generation plus higher leverage, and by bearish technical momentum. Offsetting these are attractive valuation (low P/E and strong yield) and a generally constructive earnings-call outlook with clear mid-term targets and improved capital strength.

Positive Factors

Scale & AUM growth

Record AUM and sustained net new money create a durable, fee-generating asset base. Larger AUM supports recurring management and advisory fees, improves economies of scale across distribution and custody, and provides structural revenue resilience through market cycles.

Capital strength (CET1)

A materially stronger CET1 ratio and higher CET1 capital provide a lasting regulatory buffer. Lower RWAs and a higher CET1 base increase loss-absorption capacity, support prudent growth, and reduce execution risk for strategic investments or future capital returns once regulatory clearance is obtained.

Cost savings & efficiency

Demonstrated delivery of structural cost savings and improved cost/income embeds sustainable efficiency gains. The ongoing three-year program targets further savings and should enhance operating leverage and margin durability once back-ended benefits are realized, boosting long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversion

Sharp deterioration and volatility in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow undermine internal funding and reduce financial flexibility. Inconsistent cash conversion raises reliance on external funding, constrains discretionary capital returns, and heightens exposure to liquidity shocks.

Higher leverage

A meaningful step-up in debt amplifies financial risk and interest-rate sensitivity. Higher leverage narrows balance-sheet optionality, increases refinancing and covenant risk, and could limit management’s ability to pursue growth or distributions if earnings or cash flows weaken.

Credit charges & asset quality

Large, one-off credit allowances from a comprehensive review indicate residual asset-quality remediation. Such provisions reduce underlying operating income, may signal further provisioning risk, and create ongoing earnings volatility until legacy exposures are fully resolved.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, Americas, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions include discretionary mandates, investment advisory mandates, securities execution and advisory, foreign exchange and precious metals, family office services, Lombard lending, structured products, global custody, real estate advisory and financing, and wealth planning. It also operates an open product and service platform. Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Julius Baer primarily makes money from fees and commissions for managing and advising on client assets, plus interest and trading-related income from banking activities. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Recurring management and advisory fees: charged as a percentage of assets under management for discretionary mandates and advisory relationships, forming a core, relatively stable revenue base tied to client asset levels and market performance. (2) Transaction-based income: brokerage commissions and trading-related fees when clients buy/sell securities, foreign exchange, and other instruments; this income varies with client activity and market volatility. (3) Net interest income: earned on lending and financing activities (e.g., Lombard loans secured by portfolios, mortgages, and other credit) as well as on the interest spread between client deposits and the bank’s funding/investment costs; this is influenced by interest-rate levels and balance-sheet mix. (4) Product and solution-related income: margins/fees from distributing or manufacturing investment solutions such as structured products, funds, and other tailored investments; this depends on client demand and product mix. (5) Other income: may include service/ custody fees and other banking-related charges. Earnings are also influenced by factors such as net new money inflows/outflows, market levels (which affect assets under management), client risk appetite and transaction activity, interest-rate environment, credit quality of the loan book, and regulatory/compliance costs. Specific partnership details are null.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and revenue momentum are solid (2025 revenue up sharply and net income positive), but this is offset by a major 2025 deterioration in cash generation (operating cash flow down sharply and free cash flow negative) and a meaningful increase in leverage as debt roughly doubled in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and improving in the most recent year: 2025 revenue rose sharply to 5.92B (about +21% growth) and net income was 763.7M. Across 2022–2025 the company remained consistently profitable, with a notable revenue dip in 2023 followed by a strong rebound in 2024–2025. A key weakness is volatility in the operating profit line and margins across years (including an unusually weak EBIT margin in 2024), which reduces the quality and predictability of earnings despite healthy net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is sizable (2025 total assets ~107.5B) with equity of ~7.23B, but leverage increased meaningfully in 2025 as total debt roughly doubled to ~8.21B from ~4.06B in 2024. Prior years show debt-to-equity generally around ~0.6–1.1, indicating moderate-to-elevated leverage for the period. Strengths include a stable equity base and large asset footprint; the main risk is the step-up in debt in 2025, which raises financial risk if earnings or cash generation weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to high volatility and a sharp deterioration in 2025. Operating cash flow fell to ~99.8M in 2025 from ~2.13B in 2024, and free cash flow turned negative (-147.5M) after being strongly positive in 2022 and 2024. The history shows uneven conversion of profits into cash, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and 2023. The key strength is the ability to produce strong free cash flow in some years (notably 2022 and 2024), but the inconsistency and the 2025 drop materially pressure the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.92B	3.90B	3.24B	4.52B	4.27B
Gross Profit	4.01B	3.90B	813.40M	4.52B	4.27B
EBITDA	1.03B	0.00	758.60M	0.00	0.00
Net Income	763.70M	1.02B	454.00M	949.60M	1.08B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	107.49B	105.07B	96.79B	105.64B	116.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.19B	30.06B	16.22B	18.91B	25.80B
Total Debt	8.21B	4.06B	6.05B	5.92B	7.07B
Total Liabilities	100.26B	98.24B	90.62B	99.35B	109.56B
Stockholders Equity	7.23B	6.83B	6.16B	6.29B	6.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-147.50M	1.87B	-1.17B	1.72B	123.80M
Operating Cash Flow	99.80M	2.13B	-929.10M	1.91B	320.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.09B	2.86B	-1.69B	-5.37B	764.60M
Financing Cash Flow	4.06B	-409.40M	79.30M	-3.48B	1.62B

Julius Baer Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 55.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BAER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.87, below the 50-day MA of 64.32, and below the 200-day MA of 58.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.32 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CH:BAER.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PGHN	74 Outperform	CHF20.55B	20.20	―	4.30%	23.34%	24.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
VONN	66 Neutral	$3.71B	5.44	11.11%	4.66%	3.80%	15.49%
VZN	64 Neutral	CHF5.92B	25.28	22.69%	1.82%	8.15%	12.24%
BAER	60 Neutral	CHF11.39B	16.79	―	4.14%	1.02%	131.90%
EFGN	57 Neutral	CHF5.26B	17.97	9.10%	3.15%	-0.27%	21.41%
UBSG	50 Neutral	CHF89.91B	18.85	7.04%	1.99%	-12.37%	142.75%

Julius Baer Group Ltd Corporate Events

Julius Baer Publishes Invitation to April 2026 General Meeting

Julius Bär Gruppe AG has published the invitation and materials for its upcoming General Meeting, scheduled to be held on 9 April 2026, with all documentation made available online. The meeting will provide shareholders with a formal platform for governance and oversight, underscoring the bank’s commitment to transparent engagement with investors as it continues to position itself as an international reference in wealth management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Baer refreshes board with compliance heavyweight as long-serving director exits

Julius Baer Group announced that long-serving director Olga Zoutendijk will not stand for re-election at the April 2026 AGM, ending a seven-year tenure in which she played key roles on the Audit and Governance & Risk committees during a two-year transition phase. To refresh the board, the group will propose former HSBC and UBS compliance chief Colin Bell, alongside previously announced candidate Urban Angehrn, bringing deep expertise in financial crime compliance, non-financial risk and large-scale transformation programmes.

The incoming appointments underscore Julius Baer’s strategic focus on regulatory robustness and risk management, supported by Bell’s strong relationships with major European and Swiss supervisory authorities. However, the reshuffle means the group will temporarily fall short of its self-imposed gender diversity targets at board level, prompting an active search for highly qualified female directors, with new proposals expected to be brought to shareholders by or before the 2027 AGM.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF63.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Bär Publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports

Julius Bär Group Ltd., the Swiss private banking and wealth management specialist, has released its Annual Report 2025, including the Compensation Report, alongside the 2025 Sustainability Report and the IFRS financial statements of Bank Julius Bär & Co. AG. The publication provides stakeholders with an integrated view of the group’s financial performance, governance, and sustainability strategy, underscoring its emphasis on transparency and responsible wealth management.

With CHF 521 billion in assets under management at the end of 2025 and a broad international footprint, the disclosure of these reports is a key event for investors and clients tracking Julius Bär’s operational health and strategic direction. The simultaneous release of financial and sustainability documents highlights the bank’s intent to align long-term value creation with non-financial considerations, reinforcing its competitive positioning in the global wealth management industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF63.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Baer Reshapes Board, Taps Hunziker as Vice Chairman and Adds Former FINMA Chief

Julius Baer Group has announced a reshuffle of its Board of Directors, with Richard Campbell-Breeden deciding not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual General Meeting and stepping down as Vice Chairman after overseeing the recruitment of the bank’s current CEO and Chairman. The Board will propose seasoned technology and financial services executive Jürg Hunziker as the new Vice Chairman, ensuring continued high-level Swiss representation at the top of the group, while former FINMA CEO Urban Angehrn is set to join as an independent non-executive director, bolstering the Board’s expertise in risk management, regulation and governance at a time when robust oversight and local market insight remain critical for the bank’s strategic growth in Switzerland and globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Baer Lifts AuM to Record CHF 521 Billion as Underlying Profit Rises Despite Credit Losses

Julius Baer reported a 5% rise in assets under management to a record CHF 521 billion in 2025, supported by CHF 14.4 billion of net new money, mainly from clients in Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East, and buoyant equity markets, despite the disposal of its Brazilian domestic business. While IFRS net profit fell 25% to CHF 764 million due to one-off items, higher taxes and CHF 213 million in net credit losses following a comprehensive risk review, the bank’s underlying profit before tax rose 17% to CHF 1,266 million, with operating income up 6%, operating expenses up just 1% and an improved underlying cost/income ratio of 67.6%. The group exceeded its gross cost-savings target with CHF 130 million on a run-rate basis, strengthened its capital ratios under the final Basel III standard (CET1 at 17.4% and total capital at 24.7%) and maintained a very strong liquidity coverage ratio of 261%, prompting the board to propose an unchanged dividend of CHF 2.60 per share, underscoring management’s message that 2025 was a successful transition year that leaves the bank better positioned for profitable growth and its mid-term strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Bär reshapes top management with new COO and communications chief

Julius Bär Group has announced key leadership changes to support its ongoing strategic transformation, appointing experienced financial services executive Jean Nabaa as Chief Operating Officer and member of the Executive Board from 13 April 2026, pending regulatory approval, while current COO and Deputy CEO Nic Dreckmann will step down after more than two decades at the bank and leave in summer 2026 following an orderly handover. In parallel, the group is establishing a new Group Communications function to be led by former Credit Suisse Global Head of Communications Cindy Leggett-Flynn, underscoring a sharpened focus on operational excellence, technology-driven process optimisation and strengthened strategic communications as Julius Bär seeks to enhance client experience, support strategy execution and reinforce its positioning in the global wealth management market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.