Julius Baer Group Ltd (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF13.79B
• Dividend Yield: 4.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 441.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 1.02%
• EPS Growth: 131.90%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 7,595
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.27
• Shares Outstanding: 206,001,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 463,873
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 441,104
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: CHF64.68
• Price Target Upside: -3.92% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF70.00 ▲(3.98% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and improved leverage) but held back by declining revenue and historically volatile cash flows. Valuation is supportive (reasonable P/E and ~4% yield), while technicals indicate an intact longer-term uptrend with muted near-term momentum. Earnings-call messaging was constructive on strategy, capital strength, and cost control, tempered by credit-charge impacts and near-term investment-related cost pressure.

Positive Factors

Capital and Liquidity Strength

A materially stronger CET1 ratio and capital base provide a durable buffer against shocks, support regulatory compliance and enable strategic optionality (hiring, targeted investments, or future distributions). This reduces capital strain risk and underpins confidence in multi-year growth execution.

Record AUM and Net New Money Momentum

Record AUM and sustained net new money reflect enduring client trust and fee-base resilience. Consistent inflows across Asia, Europe and Middle East strengthen geographic diversification and compound recurring management fees, supporting medium-term revenue stability even if markets fluctuate.

Cost Discipline and Structural Efficiency Gains

Material delivered cost savings and improving cost/income demonstrate the bank's ability to extract structural efficiencies. Back-ended efficiency programs and a defined cost-to-achieve roadmap improve long-term margin sustainability and make earnings less sensitive to revenue shocks.

Negative Factors

Top-line Volatility and Declining Revenue

Significant revenue declines and multi-year volatility reduce predictability of fee and trading income. For a fee-based wealth manager, persistent top-line weakness can compress investment capacity, slow NNM-driven growth initiatives and increase sensitivity of profits to market/FX swings.

Large Credit Charges from Credit Review

Material provisioning indicates legacy credit quality issues that hit IFRS earnings and absorb capital. Elevated allowances can persist, constrain distributable reserves, and require ongoing remediation and tighter underwriting, weighing on multi-year return on equity and capital deployment plans.

Structural Net Interest Income Erosion

A pronounced decline in NII and wind-down of private debt reduce a prior source of steady interest margin. Persistent low-rate environment, mix shifts to low-rate CHF loans and FX headwinds imply weaker long-term NII diversification, increasing reliance on fees and trading for sustainable profits.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, Americas, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions include discretionary mandates, investment advisory mandates, securities execution and advisory, foreign exchange and precious metals, family office services, Lombard lending, structured products, global custody, real estate advisory and financing, and wealth planning. It also operates an open product and service platform. Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Julius Baer Group Ltd makes money primarily through fees and commissions generated from its wealth and asset management services. The company charges management fees for overseeing clients' investment portfolios and advisory fees for providing personalized financial advice. Additionally, it earns commission income from trading activities, such as buying and selling securities on behalf of clients. Julius Baer also generates revenue through interest income on loans and deposits, as well as performance fees linked to the returns of managed investment products. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and leveraging its extensive network also play a crucial role in driving business growth and profitability.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2024 profitability rebound (net margin ~26%) and improved leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.59) support the score, but revenue has been declining and cash flows have been volatile with recent years of negative OCF/FCF, reducing consistency.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for the industry, with net profit margin improving to ~26% in 2024 (vs ~14% in 2023) and net income rebounding to ~1.0B (from ~0.45B). However, the top line is volatile: revenue fell ~20% in 2024 after a sharp decline in 2023, signaling sensitivity to market/transaction conditions. Reported operating profit trends are mixed across years (including unusual margin readings in some periods), which reduces confidence in consistency despite strong bottom-line performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully versus earlier years: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.59 in 2024 from ~0.98 in 2023 (and far above that in 2019), while equity remains sizable (~6.8B). Returns on equity are attractive in 2024 (~15%), indicating good earnings power on the capital base. The key watch-out is that debt is still material in absolute terms (~4.1B) and results can be cyclical in asset management, so maintaining this improved leverage profile matters.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. 2024 shows strong operating cash flow (~2.1B) and free cash flow (~1.9B), supporting earnings quality (free cash flow around ~0.88x net income). But prior years show pronounced volatility, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2023 and 2020, and extremely weak cash flow in 2019. This pattern suggests cash flows can swing sharply with working-capital/flows and market conditions, elevating risk despite the strong 2024 print.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.91B	3.90B	3.24B	4.52B	4.27B	4.06B
Gross Profit	3.73B	3.90B	813.40M	4.52B	4.27B	4.06B
EBITDA	882.30M	0.00	758.60M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	865.40M	1.02B	454.00M	949.60M	1.08B	698.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	104.72B	105.07B	96.79B	105.64B	116.31B	109.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	30.06B	16.22B	18.91B	25.80B	23.06B
Total Debt	25.26B	4.06B	6.05B	5.92B	7.07B	6.83B
Total Liabilities	97.98B	98.24B	90.62B	99.35B	109.56B	102.70B
Stockholders Equity	6.74B	6.83B	6.16B	6.29B	6.73B	6.43B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.02B	1.87B	-1.17B	1.72B	123.80M	-1.83B
Operating Cash Flow	5.26B	2.13B	-929.10M	1.91B	320.60M	-1.64B
Investing Cash Flow	3.00B	2.86B	-1.69B	-5.37B	764.60M	743.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-129.20M	-409.40M	79.30M	-3.48B	1.62B	5.25B

Julius Baer Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.30, above the 50-day MA of 62.58, and above the 200-day MA of 56.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:BAER.

Julius Baer Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
VONN	66 Neutral	$3.70B	14.98	11.11%	4.66%	3.80%	15.49%
BAER	66 Neutral	CHF13.79B	15.94	―	4.14%	1.02%	131.90%
PGHN	66 Neutral	CHF25.93B	21.17	―	4.30%	23.34%	24.97%
UBSG	63 Neutral	CHF108.65B	18.93	8.30%	1.99%	-12.37%	142.75%
EFGN	63 Neutral	$5.86B	16.45	19.05%	3.15%	-0.27%	21.41%
VZN	63 Neutral	CHF5.82B	25.79	22.69%	1.82%	8.15%	12.24%

Julius Baer Group Ltd Corporate Events

Julius Baer Reshapes Board, Taps Hunziker as Vice Chairman and Adds Former FINMA Chief

Julius Baer Group has announced a reshuffle of its Board of Directors, with Richard Campbell-Breeden deciding not to stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual General Meeting and stepping down as Vice Chairman after overseeing the recruitment of the bank’s current CEO and Chairman. The Board will propose seasoned technology and financial services executive Jürg Hunziker as the new Vice Chairman, ensuring continued high-level Swiss representation at the top of the group, while former FINMA CEO Urban Angehrn is set to join as an independent non-executive director, bolstering the Board’s expertise in risk management, regulation and governance at a time when robust oversight and local market insight remain critical for the bank’s strategic growth in Switzerland and globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Baer Lifts AuM to Record CHF 521 Billion as Underlying Profit Rises Despite Credit Losses

Julius Baer reported a 5% rise in assets under management to a record CHF 521 billion in 2025, supported by CHF 14.4 billion of net new money, mainly from clients in Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East, and buoyant equity markets, despite the disposal of its Brazilian domestic business. While IFRS net profit fell 25% to CHF 764 million due to one-off items, higher taxes and CHF 213 million in net credit losses following a comprehensive risk review, the bank’s underlying profit before tax rose 17% to CHF 1,266 million, with operating income up 6%, operating expenses up just 1% and an improved underlying cost/income ratio of 67.6%. The group exceeded its gross cost-savings target with CHF 130 million on a run-rate basis, strengthened its capital ratios under the final Basel III standard (CET1 at 17.4% and total capital at 24.7%) and maintained a very strong liquidity coverage ratio of 261%, prompting the board to propose an unchanged dividend of CHF 2.60 per share, underscoring management’s message that 2025 was a successful transition year that leaves the bank better positioned for profitable growth and its mid-term strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Bär reshapes top management with new COO and communications chief

Julius Bär Group has announced key leadership changes to support its ongoing strategic transformation, appointing experienced financial services executive Jean Nabaa as Chief Operating Officer and member of the Executive Board from 13 April 2026, pending regulatory approval, while current COO and Deputy CEO Nic Dreckmann will step down after more than two decades at the bank and leave in summer 2026 following an orderly handover. In parallel, the group is establishing a new Group Communications function to be led by former Credit Suisse Global Head of Communications Cindy Leggett-Flynn, underscoring a sharpened focus on operational excellence, technology-driven process optimisation and strengthened strategic communications as Julius Bär seeks to enhance client experience, support strategy execution and reinforce its positioning in the global wealth management market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Baer Achieves Record Asset Levels and Completes Strategic Credit Review

Julius Baer Group Ltd reported a record high of CHF 520 billion in managed assets as of October 2025, driven by solid net new money inflows and rising stock markets. The company completed a credit review, resulting in a strategic reduction of certain loan positions and recording impairments of CHF 149 million. The group’s capital position strengthened with a CET1 ratio of 16.3%, and it continues to focus on its core wealth management business. New leadership appointments, including a Chief Compliance Officer, aim to enhance risk management and compliance, while expansion efforts are underway in Switzerland, Lisbon, Abu Dhabi, and Milan.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.

Julius Bär Appoints New Chief Compliance Officer

Julius Bär Group has announced the appointment of Victoria McLean as Chief Compliance Officer and a member of the Executive Board, effective by the end of February 2026, pending regulatory approval. McLean, a seasoned compliance expert with over 30 years of experience, joins from Goldman Sachs and is expected to enhance the company’s compliance processes, reflecting Julius Bär’s commitment to optimizing its operations and maintaining its industry-leading position.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:BAER) stock is a Hold with a CHF60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Julius Baer Group Ltd stock, see the CH:BAER Stock Forecast page.