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Julius Baer Group Ltd
(BAER)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
CHF80.00
▲(13.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/21/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and volatile cash generation in the most recent year and higher leverage, despite solid profitability. Offsetting this, technicals show a clear uptrend with supportive momentum, and the latest earnings call was broadly positive with strong AUM/profit delivery and robust capital metrics, while valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Scale of AUM and client assets
A large and growing AUM base provides durable fee revenue, diversification across clients and regions, and stronger cross-sell opportunities. Scale supports investment in product distribution, RM hiring and platform upgrades, reducing sensitivity to single-market swings over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Volatile and weak cash generation
Sharp deterioration and historical volatility in operating cash flow reduce earnings quality and constrain free cash available for investment, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Inconsistent cash conversion increases refinancing and reinvestment risk over the coming 2–6 months if weak flows persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of AUM and client assets
A large and growing AUM base provides durable fee revenue, diversification across clients and regions, and stronger cross-sell opportunities. Scale supports investment in product distribution, RM hiring and platform upgrades, reducing sensitivity to single-market swings over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Julius Baer Group Ltd (BAER) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF14.52B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)441.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-0.29%
EPS Growth31.63%
CountryCH
Employees7,675
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.55
Shares Outstanding206,001,790
10 Day Avg. Volume463,873
30 Day Avg. Volume441,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.67
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.17
P/FCF Ratio-86.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF74.79Price Target Upside5.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF4.45B
Julius Baer Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory,...
How the Company Makes Money
Julius Baer primarily makes money by earning recurring fees and financial income from managing client assets and providing banking services. A core revenue stream is net fee and commission income, which includes (i) asset-based management fees cha...
Julius Baer Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance: record AUM and record half-year net profit, robust revenue growth, expanding gross margins, tangible cost savings and a materially stronger capital position. Key strategic and technology initiatives are underway and RM recruitment pipelines are active. Offsetting these positives are near-term headwinds from the deliberate derisking and revised risk & compliance framework that will depress flows into 2027, some H2 cost buildup related to investments, isolated credit write-offs and regional recruitment challenges. On balance the positive financial outcomes and capital resilience significantly outweigh the near-term execution and derisking challenges.Positive Updates
Record Assets Under Management and Client Assets
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion. Assets under custody increased 10%, bringing total client assets to just under CHF 650 billion.
Negative Updates
Derisking and Revised Risk & Compliance Weighing on Flows
Implementation of the revised risk & compliance framework is dampening net new money and growth. Management reiterated that 2026 NNM will be below 2025 and that the impact will carry over into 2027, with normalization expected in 2028; magnitude is not yet quantified.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Assets Under Management and Client Assets
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion. Assets under custody increased 10%, bringing total client assets to just under CHF 650 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated that net new money for 2026 will be below 2025 and that the headwind from the revised risk & compliance framework will carry into 2027 (normalising in 2028), while management reconfirmed mid‑term targets including a sustainable cost/income ratio below 67% by 2028 and forward tax guidance of 18–20%; dividend policy remains unchanged with a c.50% payout ratio. Key metrics cited: AUM CHF 547bn (+5% YTD) with monthly average AUM CHF 526bn (+7%), total client assets ~CHF 650bn, net new money CHF 5.7bn (2.2% annualised), operating income CHF 2.276bn (+12%), record H1 net profit CHF 673m (like‑for‑like +32%), gross margin ~87 bps (exit May–Jun 80 bps; recurring 37 bps, activity‑driven 27 bps, interest‑driven 23 bps), costs CHF 1.462bn (+2%) and a H1 cost/income of 62.6% (management expects H2 cost/income <67% given an 80 bps gross margin input), CET1 ratio 18.5% (CET1 CHF 4.3bn, RWAs CHF 23.3bn), Tier‑1 leverage ratio 4.7%, LCR 344%, loan‑to‑deposit 61%, balance sheet ~CHF 117bn (+8%), client deposits CHF 72bn (+8%), loans CHF 44bn (+5%) (Lombard CHF 36bn +7%), treasury book CHF 18bn (+15%), FX swap book ~CHF 27.5bn, credit losses CHF 23m, RM headcount 1,247 with ~120 hires expected in 2026 (31% of RMs on business cases; business case achievement ~69%), plus CHF 60m gross run‑rate savings implemented and CHF 11m fiscal‑year savings already benefiting the P&L.Julius Baer Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.99B | 5.92B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| Gross Profit | 4.48B | 4.01B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 1.03B | 1.30B | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 1.14B | 763.70M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.58B | 107.49B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.48B | 25.19B | 30.06B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.16B | 8.21B | 4.06B | 6.05B | 5.92B | 7.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 109.20B | 100.26B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.37B | 7.23B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.80M | -147.50M | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 336.10M | 99.80M | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.03B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.95B | -188.00M | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 1.62B |
Julius Baer Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
70.56
Price Trends
69.52
Positive
65.49
Positive
62.02
Positive
Market Momentum
1.00
Negative
65.95
Neutral
91.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.32, above the 50-day MA of 69.52, and above the 200-day MA of 62.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:BAER.
Julius Baer Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | CHF17.41B | 13.83 | ― | 6.79% | 18.00% | 12.05% | |
70 Outperform | CHF6.08B | 26.19 | 21.15% | 1.84% | 5.68% | 8.06% | |
67 Neutral | CHF14.52B | 12.77 | ― | 3.68% | -0.29% | 31.63% | |
67 Neutral | CHF4.81B | 12.71 | 9.43% | 3.74% | 11.49% | 51.27% | |
66 Neutral | CHF4.87B | 17.29 | 12.14% | 4.07% | -0.85% | -25.22% | |
64 Neutral | CHF128.84B | 17.68 | 10.26% | 2.02% | -9.74% | 42.77% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
CH:BAER
Julius Baer Group Ltd
75.16
19.60
35.28%
CH:UBSG
UBS Group AG
43.46
12.35
39.71%
CH:PGHN
Partners Group Holding AG
732.40
-349.33
-32.29%
CH:EFGN
EFG International AG
16.86
1.14
7.22%
CH:VONN
Vontobel Holding AG
87.60
29.73
51.38%
CH:VZN
VZ Holding AG
161.80
-5.44
-3.26%
Julius Baer Group Ltd Corporate Events
Julius Baer Delivers Record Half-Year Profit on Surging Client Assets
Jul 21, 2026
Julius Baer reported a record IFRS consolidated profit of CHF 673 million for the first half of 2026, with earnings per share more than doubling year-on-year and adjusted results matching the IFRS figures. Assets under management climbed 5% to an ...
Julius Bär names veteran finance executive Peter Burrill as new CFO
Jul 3, 2026
Julius Bär Group has appointed seasoned finance executive Peter Burrill as Chief Financial Officer and member of the Executive Board, effective 17 August 2026 and subject to regulatory approval, succeeding long-serving CFO Evie Kostakis after...
Julius Baer Raises EUR 500 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes to Diversify Funding
Jun 9, 2026
Julius Baer Group Ltd. has raised EUR 500 million through the successful placement of 5-year senior unsecured notes, issued via Dutch repackaging entity ELM B.V. and targeted at European institutional investors. The fixed-rate securities, carrying...
Julius Bär Posts Record Start to 2026 on Surging Assets and Client Activity
May 22, 2026
Julius Bär reported a record start to 2026, with assets under management rising to an all-time high of CHF 528 billion, underpinned by strong equity markets and CHF 3 billion in net new money despite currency headwinds and a tighter risk and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.