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Julius Baer Group Ltd
(BAER)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
CHF79.00
▲(25.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/08/26
The score is mainly held back by weak and highly volatile cash generation and higher leverage in the latest year, despite solid profitability and revenue momentum. Technically, the trend is positive (price above major moving averages and positive MACD) but looks overbought (high RSI/Stoch). Valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend, and the earnings call conveyed constructive strategic progress and strong capital, tempered by credit-charge and near-term cost/income pressures.
Positive Factors
Record AUM and steady net new money
A record CHF 521bn AUM and CHF 14.4bn net new money show a large, growing client asset base that drives recurring fee income and scales wealth-management economics. A larger, sticky AUM base supports durable revenue and client relationships across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Volatile, weak cash generation
Sharp swings in operating cash flow and a negative 2025 free cash flow reduce the firm's ability to self-fund investments, repay or service higher debt, and return capital. Inconsistent cash conversion undermines long-term financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record AUM and steady net new money
A record CHF 521bn AUM and CHF 14.4bn net new money show a large, growing client asset base that drives recurring fee income and scales wealth-management economics. A larger, sticky AUM base supports durable revenue and client relationships across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Julius Baer Group Ltd (BAER) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF14.91B
Dividend Yield4.14%
Average Volume (3M)441.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.6
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth-3.23%
EPS Growth-25.30%
CountryCH
Employees7,390
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.72
Shares Outstanding206,001,790
10 Day Avg. Volume463,873
30 Day Avg. Volume441,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.67
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.17
P/FCF Ratio-86.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF73.86Price Target Upside17.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF4.42B
Julius Baer Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory,...
How the Company Makes Money
Julius Baer primarily makes money by earning recurring fees and financial income from managing client assets and providing banking services. A core revenue stream is net fee and commission income, which includes (i) asset-based management fees cha...
Julius Baer Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented solid operational and strategic progress: record AUM, meaningful net new money, improved underlying revenues (excluding credit charges), strong cost discipline and a material restoration of capital adequacy (CET1 17.4%). Management addressed legacy issues (credit review, governance) and launched a clear three-year growth program and technology/efficiency initiatives. However, the year featured significant one-off credit charges (CHF 213m net), a pronounced decline in traditional NII due to lower rates and FX headwinds from a weaker dollar; management also cautioned that front‑loaded investments and cost-to-achieve will pressure near-term cost/income before back-ended benefits flow in 2027–28. On balance, positives around franchise strength, capital and execution momentum outweigh the temporary headwinds and investment-related near-term pressures.Positive Updates
Record Assets Under Management
AUM reached a record CHF 521 billion, up 5% year-on-year, supported by CHF 14.4 billion net new money and CHF 57 billion market uplift; monthly average AUM rose 7% to CHF 499 billion and total client assets increased 4% to CHF 614 billion.
Negative Updates
Net Credit Losses from Credit Review
The comprehensive credit review led to gross increases in loan loss allowances of CHF 279 million (announced in two tranches) and net credit losses of CHF 213 million for 2025, materially depressing IFRS operating income.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Assets Under Management
AUM reached a record CHF 521 billion, up 5% year-on-year, supported by CHF 14.4 billion net new money and CHF 57 billion market uplift; monthly average AUM rose 7% to CHF 499 billion and total client assets increased 4% to CHF 614 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management reiterated clear mid‑term guidance: raise net new money from 2025’s CHF 14.4bn (≈2.9% annualized) toward 4–5% p.a. by 2028 (targeting to do a bit better in 2026), achieve a cost/income ratio below 67% by 2028 (2025 ended at 67.6%, a >300bp improvement) with further structural savings of CHF 130m (additional cost‑to‑achieve ~CHF 65m, mostly booked in 2026–27 with benefits back‑ended into 2028), and deliver return on CET1 above 30% (14% underpin) while maintaining a strong CET1 ratio (17.4% at end‑2025) and risk density guidance of 22–24% (21% at end‑2025); other planning assumptions include an 80bp gross‑margin input and USD/CHF ~0.80, forward tax guidance of 18–20%, stable loan penetration around 8%, a Tier‑1 leverage ratio comfortably above the 3% floor (4.9% at end‑2025), high liquidity (LCR ~261%), and hiring of 150+ RMs in 2026 — with any shareholder buybacks remaining subject to FINMA approval.Julius Baer Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.92B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| Gross Profit | 4.01B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 1.30B | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 763.70M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 107.49B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.19B | 30.06B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B |
| Total Debt | 8.21B | 4.06B | 6.05B | 5.92B | 7.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 100.26B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.23B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -147.50M | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.80M | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.03B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.00M | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 1.62B |
Julius Baer Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
63.02
Price Trends
67.07
Positive
63.35
Positive
60.15
Positive
Market Momentum
2.06
Negative
66.69
Neutral
58.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BAER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.48, below the 50-day MA of 67.07, and above the 200-day MA of 60.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:BAER.
Julius Baer Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | CHF17.75B | 14.38 | ― | 4.30% | 18.00% | 12.05% | |
66 Neutral | CHF4.34B | 20.10 | 11.11% | 4.66% | 1.34% | 5.31% | |
64 Neutral | CHF5.07B | 24.00 | 9.10% | 3.15% | -4.31% | 2.52% | |
64 Neutral | CHF6.22B | 26.90 | 22.69% | 1.82% | 5.68% | 8.06% | |
63 Neutral | CHF14.91B | 19.65 | ― | 4.14% | -3.23% | -25.30% | |
63 Neutral | CHF127.35B | 18.31 | 8.63% | 1.99% | -14.03% | 66.93% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
CH:BAER
Julius Baer Group Ltd
73.08
19.99
37.66%
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12.51%
CH:VONN
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22.25%
CH:VZN
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-6.36%
Julius Baer Group Ltd Corporate Events
Julius Bär names veteran finance executive Peter Burrill as new CFO
Jul 3, 2026
Julius Bär Group has appointed seasoned finance executive Peter Burrill as Chief Financial Officer and member of the Executive Board, effective 17 August 2026 and subject to regulatory approval, succeeding long-serving CFO Evie Kostakis after...
Julius Baer Raises EUR 500 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes to Diversify Funding
Jun 9, 2026
Julius Baer Group Ltd. has raised EUR 500 million through the successful placement of 5-year senior unsecured notes, issued via Dutch repackaging entity ELM B.V. and targeted at European institutional investors. The fixed-rate securities, carrying...
Julius Bär Posts Record Start to 2026 on Surging Assets and Client Activity
May 22, 2026
Julius Bär reported a record start to 2026, with assets under management rising to an all-time high of CHF 528 billion, underpinned by strong equity markets and CHF 3 billion in net new money despite currency headwinds and a tighter risk and ...
Julius Baer Raises CHF 500 Million with Dual-Tranche Swiss Bond Issue
Apr 16, 2026
Julius Baer has raised CHF 500 million in the Swiss bond market via Bank Julius Baer Co. Ltd., issuing dual-tranche senior unsecured bonds of CHF 250 million each, maturing in 2029 and 2032. The bonds, carrying fixed annual coupons of 1.05% and 1...
Julius Baer CFO Evie Kostakis to Step Down After Orchestrated Handover
Apr 10, 2026
Julius Baer Group announced that Chief Financial Officer Evie Kostakis will step down from her role to take on a new international leadership position, following an orderly handover expected in the second half of 2026. She will remain with the wea...
Julius Bär shareholders back all AGM proposals, approve dividend and capital band
Apr 9, 2026
Shareholders of Julius Bär Gruppe AG approved all proposals at the 2026 annual general meeting, including the 2025 statutory and consolidated financial statements, the sustainability report, and a dividend of CHF 2.60 per registered share pay...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.