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TCG BDC Inc (CGBD)
NASDAQ:CGBD
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TCG BDC (CGBD) AI Stock Analysis

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CGBD

TCG BDC

(NASDAQ:CGBD)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
CGBD’s stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and strong valuation metrics. The recent strategic merger and robust dividend yield are key strengths. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and recent financial performance poses some risks. The company’s earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic growth initiatives.
Positive Factors
Origination Performance
Origination was notably strong this quarter at $376M, which presumably helps the 'exit rate' of NOI and drives dividend coverage.
Prepay Income
The Credit Fund payout fell to $5M, offset by improved prepay income.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
Carlyle Secured (CGBD) reported Q1 Adjusted Core EPS of $0.41, below the BofA/Consensus forecast of $0.43.
Non-Accrual Investments
Non-accrual investments increased, NAV/share declined 1%, and the yield was lower.
Portfolio Quality
Non-accruals increased to 2.2% of the portfolio at cost, from 1.0% the prior quarter.

TCG BDC (CGBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TCG BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.
How the Company Makes MoneyTCG BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income and capital gains from its investment portfolio. The company makes money by charging interest on its loans to middle-market companies, which forms the core of its revenue stream. Additionally, it earns income from dividends on equity investments and may realize gains from the sale of investments. TCG BDC's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to source high-quality debt investments with favorable terms. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships to enhance its investment opportunities and expand its portfolio.

TCG BDC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed strong origination and deployment achievements as well as the declaration of a solid dividend yield. However, challenges such as the decline in net asset value, unrealized losses, and increased nonaccruals present notable concerns. While the highlights are significant, the lowlights indicate ongoing challenges that balance out the positive aspects.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Deployment of $2 Billion in Originations
Carlyle Direct Lending achieved a platform-wide deployment record with $2 billion in originations closed during the second quarter, the highest level since IPO in 2017.
Increased Total Investments
Total investments at CGBD increased from $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion during the quarter after adjusting for $150 million of investments sold to MMCF.
Dividend Declaration
The Board of Directors declared a third quarter dividend of $0.40 per share, representing an attractive yield of over 11%.
Strong Portfolio Performance
94% of investments were in senior secured loans, and the portfolio is diversified across 202 investments and 148 companies in more than 25 industries.
Negative Updates
Net Asset Value Decline
Net asset value as of June 30 was $16.43 per share compared to $16.63 per share as of March 31.
Unrealized Losses
Total aggregate realized and unrealized net loss for the quarter was about $14 million or $0.19 per share, partially due to unrealized markdowns on select underperforming investments.
Increased Nonaccruals
Nonaccruals increased to 2.1% of total investments at fair value, although a successful restructuring reduced this figure to 1% on a pro forma basis.
Higher Expenses
Total expenses of $39 million increased versus prior quarter, primarily due to higher interest expense from a higher average outstanding debt balance, along with higher management and incentive fees.
Company Guidance
During Carlyle Secured Lending's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a net investment income of $0.39 per share, with a third-quarter dividend declared at $0.40 per share. The net asset value as of June 30 was $16.43 per share, down from $16.63 per share at the end of March. Despite tight market spreads, the company achieved a platform-wide deployment record with $2 billion in originations closed during the quarter. Carlyle Direct Lending funded $376 million in investments, resulting in net investment activity of $238 million after repayments. Total investments increased from $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion. The portfolio included 202 investments across 148 companies, with 94% in senior secured loans. The company noted a slight increase in nonaccruals to 2.1% of total investments, although a successful restructuring reduced this to 1% on a pro forma basis. With expectations of a busier fourth quarter, Carlyle Secured Lending remains focused on portfolio diversification and credit performance.

TCG BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TCG BDC demonstrates efficient management of operations with strong EBIT margins and a solid equity position. However, the recent drop in revenue and net income highlight areas of potential concern. The company’s cash flow remains strong, but monitoring the cash generation trends will be critical moving forward.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown a fluctuating revenue trend with a revenue decline in the most recent year. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating efficient cost management. The absence of net income in the latest year is a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company has a solid equity base with a satisfactory debt-to-equity ratio, indicating lower leverage and potential for financial stability. The equity ratio suggests a balanced asset structure. However, the reduction in total assets over the years could be a risk if not managed well.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow from operations shows strength with a substantial free cash flow, although it has decreased from the previous year. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable due to net income being zero in the latest year.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue200.20M232.59M220.39M207.26M190.28M123.64M
Gross Profit142.13M99.28M167.97M207.26M171.24M75.76M
EBITDA68.66M91.72M169.96M125.20M190.10M50.83M
Net Income69.65M88.98M92.28M85.64M160.35M6.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.57B1.93B1.94B2.04B2.03B1.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.22M29.67M60.45M16.09M22.99M68.42M
Total Debt1.31B967.65M980.18M1.08B1.04B983.92M
Total Liabilities1.38B1.02B1.03B1.12B1.08B1.02B
Stockholders Equity1.20B905.20M912.81M917.42M948.80M901.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.94M104.27M230.61M14.51M75.43M305.16M
Operating Cash Flow-5.94M104.27M230.61M14.51M75.43M305.16M
Investing Cash Flow1.03M0.000.00-56.96M6.06M236.87M
Financing Cash Flow90.36M-108.14M-200.67M-77.08M-50.78M-273.49M

TCG BDC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.79
Price Trends
50DMA
13.84
Negative
100DMA
13.78
Positive
200DMA
15.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
49.96
Neutral
STOCH
43.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.78, below the 50-day MA of 13.84, and below the 200-day MA of 15.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CGBD.

TCG BDC Risk Analysis

TCG BDC disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TCG BDC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TCG BDC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$1.14B7.2517.31%12.57%31.43%30.85%
75
Outperform
$790.69M8.7610.37%12.53%13.19%-18.24%
71
Outperform
$910.52M10.258.95%9.82%5.87%-12.64%
68
Neutral
$18.06B11.9710.24%3.74%9.75%1.30%
67
Neutral
$1.01B11.806.60%12.82%-17.05%-40.15%
63
Neutral
$1.02B12.177.37%11.99%55.25%-47.71%
58
Neutral
$610.56M-1.48%18.78%-48.53%73.29%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CGBD
TCG BDC
13.79
-1.20
-8.01%
PFLT
Pennantpark $
10.26
0.09
0.88%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
16.70
2.52
17.77%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
7.24
-0.53
-6.82%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
16.23
4.18
34.69%
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
15.96
0.59
3.84%

TCG BDC Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
TCG BDC Appoints Thomas Hennigan to Board
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Mark Jenkins resigned from the Board of Directors of Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., while retaining his role as Managing Director and Head of Global Credit at The Carlyle Group. The Board appointed Thomas Hennigan, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in financial management and risk assessment, as a Class II director to fill the vacancy. Mr. Hennigan’s appointment is expected to bring valuable insights to the Board, leveraging his deep understanding of the company’s operations and industry.

Spark’s Take on CGBD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CGBD is a Neutral.

CGBD’s stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and strong valuation metrics. The recent strategic merger and robust dividend yield are key strengths. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and recent financial performance poses some risks. The company’s earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic growth initiatives.

To see Spark’s full report on CGBD stock, click here.

Financial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Schedules Q1 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Apr 15, 2025

On April 15, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on May 7, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. The company will release its quarterly financial results on May 6, 2025, and the call will be accessible via a public webcast on its website. This announcement highlights Carlyle Secured Lending’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Spark’s Take on CGBD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CGBD is a Neutral.

CGBD demonstrates strong financial and strategic positioning with robust income generation and strategic growth initiatives. However, it faces challenges with recent revenue and net income declines. The stock’s current bearish technical outlook and the need for cautious cash flow monitoring are balanced by a strong valuation proposition with a high dividend yield.

To see Spark’s full report on CGBD stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsDividendsFinancial Disclosures
TCG BDC Merges with CSL III, Reports Strong 2024
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. presented its earnings to former investors of Carlyle Secured Lending III, detailing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The company successfully merged with CSL III on March 27, 2025, enhancing its portfolio and market position. The merger and the strong performance in 2024, including a 2.1% quarterly net total return and a $0.75 per share dividend, indicate robust income generation and strategic growth, benefiting stakeholders by leveraging the OneCarlyle platform for investment opportunities.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
TCG BDC Completes Acquisition of Carlyle Secured Lending III
Positive
Mar 28, 2025

On March 27, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) completed its acquisition of Carlyle Secured Lending III (CSL III), following a merger agreement initially announced in August 2024. This merger resulted in CGBD issuing approximately 18,935,108 shares of common stock to former CSL III shareholders. The merger was approved by 96% of voting shareholders at a special meeting held on March 26, 2025. The transaction aims to create long-term value through increased portfolio scale and efficiency, with a closing price per share of CGBD’s common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market being less than 11% greater than its net asset value per share as of March 25, 2025.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
TCG BDC Announces Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024, highlighting a strong finish with portfolio growth and net investment income above the base dividend. The company declared a first quarter 2025 dividend of $0.45 per share, including a supplemental dividend, payable on April 17, 2025. The announcement reflects CGBD’s robust performance despite market challenges, positioning it well for continued success in 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 22, 2025