Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $902.54M
• Dividend Yield: 13.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 432.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -8.23%
• EPS Growth: -35.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 72,902,985
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 370,374
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 432,708
• PEG Ratio: -2.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 13.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.46
• 1Y Price Target: $13.20
• Price Target Upside: 6.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(9.05% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM cash flow despite solid reported profitability and a levered balance sheet. Valuation is a clear positive (low-to-moderate P/E and high yield), while technicals are neutral and recent updates point to stable credit trends but modest NAV/unrealized-loss headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strategic Merger

The merger enhances portfolio scale and market position, offering long-term value through increased efficiency and investment opportunities.

Portfolio Growth

Significant portfolio growth indicates strong market demand and effective investment strategies, supporting long-term revenue generation.

Investment Grade Ratings

Investment grade ratings enhance credibility and lower borrowing costs, improving financial stability and supporting future growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue and net income may indicate challenges in maintaining growth momentum, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

Unrealized Losses

Unrealized losses reflect potential valuation issues in the investment portfolio, impacting asset quality and future earnings stability.

Net Asset Value Decline

A decline in NAV suggests pressure on asset valuations, which could affect investor confidence and future capital raising efforts.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

How the Company Makes Money

TCG BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income and capital gains from its investment portfolio. The company makes money by charging interest on its loans to middle-market companies, which forms the core of its revenue stream. Additionally, it earns income from dividends on equity investments and may realize gains from the sale of investments. TCG BDC's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to source high-quality debt investments with favorable terms. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships to enhance its investment opportunities and expand its portfolio.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Reported profitability is solid, and leverage is elevated but broadly stable; however, the TTM reversal to negative operating cash flow and free cash flow is a material red flag that weighs heavily on earnings quality and flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with net profit around 38% and operating profitability broadly stable versus 2024. However, the multi-year revenue path is uneven (sharp expansion in 2021, declines/volatility afterward, and modest growth more recently), which lowers confidence in consistency. Margins also show noticeable swings across years, suggesting earnings power is sensitive to the operating environment.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is consistently elevated, with debt running a little above equity (about 1.1x debt-to-equity in TTM and in recent years), which is manageable but leaves less room for adverse credit or funding conditions. Equity has grown alongside assets in the latest period, supporting scale, but returns on equity have moderated in TTM versus prior years, indicating less efficient profitability on the current capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, a major deterioration from positive levels in 2023–2024. While prior years showed strong cash conversion at times, the swing to cash outflow in the latest period raises questions around sustainability of reported earnings and near-term financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	163.92M	167.76M	172.80M	138.63M	198.72M	52.94M
Gross Profit	84.16M	99.28M	101.09M	94.67M	167.96M	17.12M
EBITDA	75.68M	91.72M	94.72M	87.47M	161.13M	7.40M
Net Income	73.94M	88.98M	92.28M	85.64M	160.35M	6.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.56B	1.93B	1.94B	2.04B	2.03B	1.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.27M	29.67M	60.45M	16.09M	22.99M	52.23M
Total Debt	1.31B	967.65M	980.18M	1.08B	1.04B	983.92M
Total Liabilities	1.37B	1.02B	1.03B	1.12B	1.08B	1.02B
Stockholders Equity	1.19B	905.20M	912.81M	917.42M	948.80M	901.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-53.03M	104.27M	230.61M	71.47M	69.37M	305.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-53.03M	104.27M	230.61M	71.47M	69.37M	305.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-109.41M	0.00	0.00	-56.96M	6.06M	236.87M
Financing Cash Flow	146.04M	-108.14M	-200.67M	-77.08M	-50.78M	-273.49M

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.67, below the 50-day MA of 12.60, and below the 200-day MA of 12.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CGBD.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRIN	77 Outperform	$1.28B	7.76	16.18%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
SLRC	70 Outperform	$812.32M	9.02	9.07%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	67 Neutral	$887.14M	13.18	5.43%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$854.32M	9.16	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
PFLT	61 Neutral	$933.64M	13.12	6.80%	13.64%	36.91%	-48.79%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$902.54M	10.76	7.03%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Corporate Events

Carlyle Secured Lending Q3 2025 Financial Results Announced

On November 4, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, reporting a net investment income of $0.37 per share and an adjusted net investment income of $0.38 per share. The company declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.40 per share, payable on January 16, 2026. CGBD continues to focus on disciplined underwriting and optimizing its capital structure, which includes a recent bond issuance and credit facility repayment to lower financing costs. The company’s net asset value per share slightly decreased by 0.4% to $16.36, while the total fair value of investments rose to $2.4 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Secured Lending to Redeem 8.20% Notes

On October 31, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. announced its plan to redeem all outstanding 8.20% Notes due 2028, totaling $85 million, on December 1, 2025. This move will result in the delisting of these notes from the Nasdaq Global Select Market, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Secured Lending Announces Q3 Results Call

On October 15, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on November 5, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company will release its quarterly financial results on November 4, 2025, and the conference call will be accessible via a public webcast. This announcement is part of Carlyle Secured Lending’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.