Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD)
NASDAQ:CGBD
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Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
(NASDAQ:CGBD)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
â–²(8.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
Score is held back primarily by financial-statement uncertainty and cash-flow volatility (notably the 2025 operating cash flow outflow and inconsistent latest-year figures), plus weak technical momentum. These are partially offset by an attractive valuation/income profile (low P/E and high yield) and a generally positive earnings-call read-through highlighting dividend support, JV-driven longer-term accretion potential, and stable credit indicators.
Positive Factors
Conservative portfolio composition
A portfolio concentrated in senior‑secured loans across 165 companies and 25+ industries with low nonaccruals and healthy median EBITDA underpins durable credit resilience. This structurally lowers loss severity and supports stable interest income through multiple economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Operating cash‑flow volatility
Large swings in operating cash flow, including a substantial 2025 outflow, signal that reported investment income may not reliably convert to cash. Persistent cash volatility can constrain distributions, limit reinvestment, and increase sensitivity to funding shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative portfolio composition
A portfolio concentrated in senior‑secured loans across 165 companies and 25+ industries with low nonaccruals and healthy median EBITDA underpins durable credit resilience. This structurally lowers loss severity and supports stable interest income through multiple economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$781.69M
Dividend Yield13.63%
Average Volume (3M)791.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-8.23%
EPS Growth-35.72%
CountryUS
Employees2,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding70,676,926
10 Day Avg. Volume784,360
30 Day Avg. Volume791,763
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)4.28
P/FCF Ratio-4.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.75Price Target Upside6.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$262.40M
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes i...
How the Company Makes Money
TCG BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income and capital gains from its investment portfolio. The company makes money by charging interest on its loans to middle-market companies, which forms the core of its revenue stream. Addition...
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Fair Value of Investments by Type
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarlyle Secured Lending Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple positive operational and strategic developments — record origination and platform deployments, accretive JV initiatives (MMCF and SCP) with attractive expected yields, conservative portfolio composition, low nonaccruals, active share repurchases, and improved funding profile — which outweigh near-term headwinds such as lower yields from rate cuts, modest valuation markdowns (notably in software), a small aggregate net loss in the quarter, and an expected earnings trough in H1 2026. Management emphasized confidence in portfolio credit quality, diversification, and long-term accretion opportunities from fee-free JV structures, while acknowledging short-term pressure on earnings and valuations.Positive Updates
Record Origination and Deployment
CGBD deployed over $1.2 billion in 2025 and closed over $7.0 billion of commitments at the Carlyle Direct Lending platform; Q4 was a record quarter with >$400 million of investment fundings and net investment activity of $193 million. Total investments at CGBD rose from $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion during the quarter (~4.2% quarter increase).
Negative Updates
Pressure on Yields from Rate Cuts and Tight Spreads
Management cited lower investment yields driven by lower base rates and historically tight spreads on new originations; expect earnings to trough in H1 2026 primarily due to base rate cuts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Origination and Deployment
CGBD deployed over $1.2 billion in 2025 and closed over $7.0 billion of commitments at the Carlyle Direct Lending platform; Q4 was a record quarter with >$400 million of investment fundings and net investment activity of $193 million. Total investments at CGBD rose from $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion during the quarter (~4.2% quarter increase).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that CGBD will pay a Q1 2026 dividend of $0.40 per share (backed by an estimated $0.74 per share of spillover income), expects 2026 earnings to trough in H1 2026 from base‑rate cuts with earnings rising thereafter as JV portfolios ramp, and anticipates an active M&A/ origination year with pipeline pickup; they highlighted JV growth (MMCF equity upsize from $175M to $250M per partner, MMCF >$950M deployed and achieving a 15% dividend yield) and the new SCP JV (total $600M equity commitments, CGBD $150M commitment, targeting ~4 CLO issuances/year and ~$6–7B fee‑free assets over time with historical CLO returns of 10–12% and a potential 400–500 bps uplift). Quarter and balance‑sheet metrics supporting the guidance included Q4 total investment income $67M, total expenses $43M, GAAP NII $24M ($0.33/share) and adjusted NII $0.36/share, Q4 net investment activity $193M, total investments rising to ~$2.5B (CGBD deployed >$1.2B in 2025; platform closed >$7B), NAV $16.26 (vs. $16.36 at 9/30), statutory leverage 1.3x (adjusted ~1.1x), a new 5‑year $300M unsecured bond at SOFR+2.31% (lowering WACB ~10 bps), $28M of share repurchases to date (~$14M Q4 and $14M Q1) yielding ~$0.12/share accretion and an expanded $300M buyback authorization, aggregate Q4 realized/unrealized net loss ~$7M ($0.09/share), nonaccruals of 5 names (1.2% of investments at fair value), 165 portfolio companies across >25 industries, 94% senior secured, and median portfolio EBITDA $97M.Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 197.79M | 167.76M | 172.80M | 138.63M | 198.72M |
| Gross Profit | 140.23M | 99.28M | 101.09M | 94.67M | 167.96M |
| EBITDA | 165.27M | 91.72M | 94.72M | 87.47M | 161.13M |
| Net Income | 69.97M | 88.98M | 92.28M | 85.64M | 160.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.79B | 1.93B | 1.94B | 2.04B | 2.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 76.49M | 29.67M | 60.45M | 16.09M | 22.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.53B | 967.65M | 980.18M | 1.08B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.02B | 1.03B | 1.12B | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.17B | 905.20M | 912.81M | 917.42M | 948.80M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -334.56M | 0.00 | 0.00 | -56.96M | 6.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 224.48M | -108.14M | -200.67M | -77.08M | -50.78M |
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
11.06
Price Trends
11.02
Positive
11.48
Negative
11.80
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
54.79
Neutral
37.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.83, above the 50-day MA of 11.02, and below the 200-day MA of 11.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CGBD.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Risk Analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $823.83M | 9.13 | 8.72% | 13.18% | -26.08% | -27.65% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.27B | 7.49 | 14.09% | 13.53% | 33.44% | 25.22% | |
61 Neutral | $800.88M | 59.29 | 1.29% | 14.17% | 36.15% | -38.59% | |
60 Neutral | $781.69M | 12.09 | 5.87% | 13.63% | -8.23% | -35.72% | |
58 Neutral | $840.14M | 9.11 | 9.32% | 10.80% | -6.30% | -6.92% | |
54 Neutral | $839.38M | -64.26 | 3.23% | 13.64% | 36.91% | -48.79% |
* Financial Sector Average
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
11.44
-1.06
-8.51%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
8.22
-0.02
-0.30%
PFLT
Pennantpark
8.61
0.06
0.68%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
15.82
2.19
16.09%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
13.01
0.21
1.65%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
15.50
2.95
23.48%
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Reports Strong 2025 Results, Dividend
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting net investment income of $0.33 per share for the quarter and $1.48 per share for the year. Adjusted...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Carlyle Secured Lending Forms Structured Credit Partners JV
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Carlyle Secured Lending, Carlyle Credit Solutions, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, and Sixth Street Lending Partners have formed Structured Credit Partners JV, LLC, a joint venture focused on investing in broadly syndicated first lien senior secur...
Financial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Schedules Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced that it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, and will host a public conference call and webcast ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.