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TCG BDC Inc (CGBD)
NASDAQ:CGBD

TCG BDC (CGBD) AI Stock Analysis

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TCG BDC

(NASDAQ:CGBD)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
CGBD’s stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and strong valuation metrics. The recent strategic merger and robust dividend yield are key strengths. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and recent financial performance poses some risks. The company’s earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic growth initiatives.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
CGBD reported Q1 Adjusted Core EPS of $0.41, below the BofA/Consensus forecast of $0.43.
Portfolio Quality
Non-accrual investments increased to 2.2% of the portfolio at cost, from 1.0% the prior quarter.
Stock Valuation
CGBD shares are trading at a roughly 10% premium compared to external peers, which analysts believe is not justified.

TCG BDC (CGBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TCG BDC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.
How the Company Makes MoneyTCG BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income and capital gains from its investment portfolio. The company makes money by charging interest on its loans to middle-market companies, which forms the core of its revenue stream. Additionally, it earns income from dividends on equity investments and may realize gains from the sale of investments. TCG BDC's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to source high-quality debt investments with favorable terms. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships to enhance its investment opportunities and expand its portfolio.

TCG BDC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TCG BDC demonstrates efficient management of operations with strong EBIT margins and a solid equity position. However, the recent drop in revenue and net income highlight areas of potential concern. The company’s cash flow remains strong, but monitoring the cash generation trends will be critical moving forward.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company has shown a fluctuating revenue trend with a revenue decline in the most recent year. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating efficient cost management. The absence of net income in the latest year is a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company has a solid equity base with a satisfactory debt-to-equity ratio, indicating lower leverage and potential for financial stability. The equity ratio suggests a balanced asset structure. However, the reduction in total assets over the years could be a risk if not managed well.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow from operations shows strength with a substantial free cash flow, although it has decreased from the previous year. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable due to net income being zero in the latest year.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
99.28M241.63M162.16M169.89M17.12M
Gross Profit
99.28M207.47M110.31M122.53M-30.77M
EBIT
91.72M184.12M131.43M161.13M7.40M
EBITDA
158.20M169.96M149.83M161.13M50.83M
Net Income Common Stockholders
88.98M92.28M85.64M160.35M6.83M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
56.58M60.45M930.75M93.07M68.42M
Total Assets
1.93B1.94B2.04B2.03B1.92B
Total Debt
0.00980.18M1.08B1.04B983.92M
Net Debt
-29.67M919.74M1.06B950.95M915.50M
Total Liabilities
1.02B1.03B1.12B1.08B1.02B
Stockholders Equity
905.20M912.81M917.42M948.80M901.36M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
104.27M230.61M14.51M75.43M305.16M
Operating Cash Flow
104.27M230.61M14.51M75.43M305.16M
Investing Cash Flow
0.000.00-56.96M6.06M236.87M
Financing Cash Flow
-108.14M-200.67M-77.08M-50.78M-273.49M

TCG BDC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.81
Price Trends
50DMA
14.97
Negative
100DMA
16.19
Negative
200DMA
16.12
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.25
Negative
RSI
40.82
Neutral
STOCH
41.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.24, below the 50-day MA of 14.97, and below the 200-day MA of 16.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CGBD.

TCG BDC Risk Analysis

TCG BDC disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TCG BDC reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TCG BDC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$781.88M8.2810.56%11.44%37.08%-2.29%
74
Outperform
$966.53M6.8217.56%14.07%46.14%34.91%
71
Outperform
$914.34M10.418.86%10.03%14.33%25.35%
70
Outperform
$1.02B11.517.59%12.25%93.63%24.41%
67
Neutral
$1.04B11.006.92%13.31%-11.85%-3.73%
64
Neutral
$12.66B9.797.67%17015.07%12.23%-6.06%
58
Neutral
$658.19M-5.45%16.69%8.24%-207.60%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CGBD
TCG BDC
13.81
-2.10
-13.20%
PFLT
Pennantpark $
10.04
-0.03
-0.30%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
16.30
1.74
11.95%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
7.55
-1.65
-17.93%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
14.39
1.67
13.13%
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
15.55
-0.03
-0.19%

TCG BDC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable portfolio growth and strategic benefits from the CSL III merger but was counterbalanced by challenges such as declining NAV, increased non-accruals, and headwinds from declining base rates. The company maintains its dividend and portfolio stability despite these challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Portfolio Growth
The total assets increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion this quarter based on net investment and strategic activity, including the merger with CSL III and the consolidation of Credit Fund II's assets.
Strategic Merger Benefits
The merger with CSL III increased scale and eliminated preferred stock dilution overhang, with Carlyle exchanging its investment at NAV. This is expected to improve stock liquidity and reduce costs.
Consistent Dividend Declaration
The Board declared a second quarter dividend of $0.40 per share, maintaining an attractive yield of about 11% based on the recent share price.
Stable Portfolio Composition
The portfolio is diversified across 195 investments in 138 companies over more than 25 industries, with 94% of investments in senior secured loans.
Negative Updates
Declining Net Asset Value
Net asset value decreased from $16.80 per share as of December 31 to $16.63 per share as of March 31.
Increased Non-Accruals
Non-accruals increased to 1.6% of total investments at fair value, with a specific markdown on Maverick, which was added to non-accrual during the quarter.
Impact of Declining Base Rates
The company faced headwinds from declining base rates and historically tight market spreads, contributing to a slight decline in net investment income.
Limited Growth in Investment Income
Total investment income for the first quarter was $55 million, generally in line with the prior quarter, with a higher average portfolio balance offset by lower yields and dividends.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. reported GAAP net investment income of $0.40 per share and adjusted net investment income of $0.41 per share, reflecting an annualized yield of approximately 10% on their March 31 NAV of $16.63 per share. The company's total assets increased from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, bolstered by strategic activities, including a merger with CSL III, adding $490 million in new investments, and the consolidation of Credit Fund II, which increased the portfolio size by $127 million. The Board declared a second-quarter dividend of $0.40 per share. Despite challenges from declining base rates and tight market spreads, the company added approximately $180 million in organic originations, with 94% of investments in senior secured loans and a median portfolio EBITDA of $87 million. The company remains focused on maintaining a diverse portfolio with minimal direct tariff exposure, while also addressing headwinds in market spreads and leveraging strategic partnerships to optimize returns.

TCG BDC Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
TCG BDC Appoints Thomas Hennigan to Board
Neutral
May 1, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Mark Jenkins resigned from the Board of Directors of Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., while retaining his role as Managing Director and Head of Global Credit at The Carlyle Group. The Board appointed Thomas Hennigan, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in financial management and risk assessment, as a Class II director to fill the vacancy. Mr. Hennigan’s appointment is expected to bring valuable insights to the Board, leveraging his deep understanding of the company’s operations and industry.

Spark’s Take on CGBD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CGBD is a Neutral.

CGBD’s stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and strong valuation metrics. The recent strategic merger and robust dividend yield are key strengths. However, technical indicators show bearish trends, and recent financial performance poses some risks. The company’s earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic growth initiatives.

To see Spark’s full report on CGBD stock, click here.

Financial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Schedules Q1 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Apr 15, 2025

On April 15, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on May 7, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. The company will release its quarterly financial results on May 6, 2025, and the call will be accessible via a public webcast on its website. This announcement highlights Carlyle Secured Lending’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Spark’s Take on CGBD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CGBD is a Neutral.

CGBD demonstrates strong financial and strategic positioning with robust income generation and strategic growth initiatives. However, it faces challenges with recent revenue and net income declines. The stock’s current bearish technical outlook and the need for cautious cash flow monitoring are balanced by a strong valuation proposition with a high dividend yield.

To see Spark’s full report on CGBD stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsDividendsFinancial Disclosures
TCG BDC Merges with CSL III, Reports Strong 2024
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. presented its earnings to former investors of Carlyle Secured Lending III, detailing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The company successfully merged with CSL III on March 27, 2025, enhancing its portfolio and market position. The merger and the strong performance in 2024, including a 2.1% quarterly net total return and a $0.75 per share dividend, indicate robust income generation and strategic growth, benefiting stakeholders by leveraging the OneCarlyle platform for investment opportunities.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
TCG BDC Completes Acquisition of Carlyle Secured Lending III
Positive
Mar 28, 2025

On March 27, 2025, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) completed its acquisition of Carlyle Secured Lending III (CSL III), following a merger agreement initially announced in August 2024. This merger resulted in CGBD issuing approximately 18,935,108 shares of common stock to former CSL III shareholders. The merger was approved by 96% of voting shareholders at a special meeting held on March 26, 2025. The transaction aims to create long-term value through increased portfolio scale and efficiency, with a closing price per share of CGBD’s common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market being less than 11% greater than its net asset value per share as of March 25, 2025.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
TCG BDC Announces Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 25, 2025

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024, highlighting a strong finish with portfolio growth and net investment income above the base dividend. The company declared a first quarter 2025 dividend of $0.45 per share, including a supplemental dividend, payable on April 17, 2025. The announcement reflects CGBD’s robust performance despite market challenges, positioning it well for continued success in 2025.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.