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Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
(NASDAQ:CGBD)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
â–²(19.52% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/09/26
CGBD’s score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality (margin compression, leverage history, and highly volatile cash flow plus a TTM debt-data discontinuity) balanced by constructive technical momentum and a supportive earnings-call outlook that frames Q2 as a trough with improving earnings/dividend capacity as JVs scale. Valuation is a secondary positive with a reasonable P/E and very high dividend yield, though the yield likely reflects elevated perceived risk.
Positive Factors
Platform Origination Scale
Sizable platform originations and Carlyle-led deal flow signal durable sourcing advantages and scale in middle-market lending. High, repeatable commitments and a sub-5% pipeline commitment rate reflect disciplined underwriting and steady deal throughput that should support interest income and deployment over several quarters.
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet Discontinuity & Leverage History
A TTM reporting discontinuity showing zero total debt versus historically moderate-to-elevated leverage reduces confidence in reported financials and suggests either large financing changes or classification shifts. Historical leverage levels amplify sensitivity to credit cycles and complicate assessment of capital flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform Origination Scale
Sizable platform originations and Carlyle-led deal flow signal durable sourcing advantages and scale in middle-market lending. High, repeatable commitments and a sub-5% pipeline commitment rate reflect disciplined underwriting and steady deal throughput that should support interest income and deployment over several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Fair Value of Investments by Type
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$787.81M
Dividend Yield13.58%
Average Volume (3M)583.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.5
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth11.89%
EPS Growth-58.67%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding68,804,580
10 Day Avg. Volume725,063
30 Day Avg. Volume583,281
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)4.28
P/FCF Ratio-4.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside29.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$250.69M
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. functions as a business development company, primarily making direct investments. The firm provides a diverse array of financing, including first and second lien senior secured loans, unsecured debt, mezzanine debt, a...
How the Company Makes Money
CGBD makes money primarily through investment income generated from its portfolio of loans and other credit investments in middle-market companies.
Key revenue streams:
- Interest income on debt investments: The largest driver is contractual inte...
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presents a positive operational and financial trajectory: strong origination momentum (platform originations +20% QoQ), robust JV ramping with high dividend yields (MMCF 17.6%, SCP 18.7%), NII of $0.35 per share fully covering the declared $0.35 dividend, accretive buybacks at a ~29% discount, conservative portfolio construction, low non-accruals, and a floating-rate balance sheet with modest leverage (1.2x). Offsetting items include a QoQ decline in total investment income ($62M) due to lower OID accretion and fee income, ~$24M of mark-to-market losses ($0.35 per share) driven by a few markdowns, modest NAV decline (~-1.8%), and some investments moved to non-accrual. Management expects Q2 to be the near-term earnings trough and forecasts improved earnings and supplemental dividends as JVs ramp, which together with strong JV yields and accretive repurchases leads to a net positive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Platform Originations and Selectivity
Closed $1.5 billion of new and incremental commitments at the Carlyle platform; platform originations were up over 20% versus Q1 2026. Second-quarter commitment rate on pipeline deals was less than 5%, indicating high selectivity. Carlyle led ~90% of platform originations.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Investment Income
Total investment income for Q2 was $62 million, below the prior quarter. The decline was driven primarily by lower interest income due to reduced OID accretion (from lower repayment activity) and a decrease in fee income.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Platform Originations and Selectivity
Closed $1.5 billion of new and incremental commitments at the Carlyle platform; platform originations were up over 20% versus Q1 2026. Second-quarter commitment rate on pipeline deals was less than 5%, indicating high selectivity. Carlyle led ~90% of platform originations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q2 should be the near‑term earnings trough and that they expect to maintain full dividend coverage and grow earnings and supplemental dividends as JV portfolios ramp over the next 4–6 quarters; the Board declared a Q3 base dividend of $0.35/share, the supplemental policy targets paying at least 50% of excess earnings, and they estimate roughly $0.70/share of spillover to support the quarterly dividend. Key metrics cited in support of that guidance include Q2 net investment income of $24M ( $0.35/share), total investment income of $62M, total expenses of $38M, aggregate realized and unrealized net loss of ~$24M ( $0.35/share), investments at CGBD up from $2.3B to $2.4B, platform commitments of $1.5B (CGBD funded $248M), platform originations +20% vs Q1 with a <5% commitment rate, MMCF investments $1.2B with a 17.6% annualized dividend yield (up >200bps), SCP $1.7B with an 18.7% dividend yield and plans to price two more CLOs in 2026 (targeting a four‑CLOs/year cadence and $6–7B fee‑free over time), statutory/net leverage at 1.2x, a 100% floating debt stack, and continued share buybacks ($12.5M in Q2 at a 29% average discount; >$200M repurchased total).Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 238.34M | 197.79M | 167.76M | 172.80M | 138.63M | 198.72M |
| Gross Profit | 192.07M | 140.23M | 99.28M | 101.09M | 94.67M | 167.96M |
| EBITDA | 110.50M | 165.27M | 95.20M | 94.72M | 87.47M | 161.13M |
| Net Income | 37.01M | 69.97M | 88.98M | 92.28M | 85.64M | 160.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.44B | 2.79B | 1.93B | 1.94B | 2.04B | 2.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.94M | 76.49M | 29.67M | 60.45M | 16.09M | 22.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.53B | 967.65M | 980.18M | 1.08B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.62B | 1.02B | 1.03B | 1.12B | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.17B | 905.20M | 912.81M | 917.42M | 948.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 299.44M | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 299.44M | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.87M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -56.96M | 6.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -166.94M | 224.48M | -108.14M | -200.67M | -77.08M | -50.78M |
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
10.04
Price Trends
10.64
Positive
10.75
Positive
10.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
65.36
Neutral
80.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.92, below the 50-day MA of 10.64, and below the 200-day MA of 10.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CGBD.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Risk Analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.76B | 9.74 | 13.88% | 11.82% | 8.54% | -23.45% | |
70 Outperform | $787.81M | 22.46 | 3.25% | 15.44% | 11.89% | -58.67% | |
69 Neutral | $740.17M | 14.62 | 4.82% | 17.37% | 12.58% | -40.06% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $693.39M | 9.41 | 7.45% | 11.90% | -3.92% | -16.93% | |
65 Neutral | $786.21M | 12.21 | 5.79% | 15.29% | -11.58% | -40.72% | |
62 Neutral | $721.62M | -15.92 | -4.28% | 17.69% | -50.21% | -161.42% |
* Financial Sector Average
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
11.41
-0.72
-5.97%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
7.61
-1.47
-16.19%
PFLT
Pennantpark
7.42
-1.44
-16.21%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.60
-2.21
-14.93%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
12.09
-1.44
-10.62%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
18.70
4.91
35.59%
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending declares stable third-quarter dividend
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 net investment income and adjusted net investment income of $0.35 per common share, with CEO Alex Chi highlighting strong earnings, full coverage of the updated dividend, and low non-accrua...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carlyle Secured Lending Stockholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected Linda Pace and William H. Wright II as Class I directors to three-year terms, following a vote in which 41,339,639 of the 70...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Carlyle Secured Lending Shareholders Approve Discounted Equity Issuance
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. held a special meeting at which stockholders voted on whether to allow the company, with board approval, to issue common shares over the next 12 months at prices below then-current net asset value per...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Reports Q1 2026 Results, Resets Dividend
Neutral
May 11, 2026
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., a Nasdaq-listed business development company under the Carlyle Global Credit umbrella, focuses on providing debt financing to U.S. middle-market companies to generate income and capital appreciation. Since launching ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.