Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $834.74M
• Dividend Yield: 13.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 527.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -8.23%
• EPS Growth: -35.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 70,676,926
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 589,451
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 527,534
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.16
• 1Y Price Target: $13.50
• Price Target Upside: 18.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $260.30M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(5.54% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

Score is held back primarily by financial-statement uncertainty and cash-flow volatility (notably the 2025 operating cash flow outflow and inconsistent latest-year figures), plus weak technical momentum. These are partially offset by an attractive valuation/income profile (low P/E and high yield) and a generally positive earnings-call read-through highlighting dividend support, JV-driven longer-term accretion potential, and stable credit indicators.

Positive Factors

Conservative portfolio composition

A portfolio concentrated in senior‑secured loans across 165 companies and 25+ industries with low nonaccruals and healthy median EBITDA underpins durable credit resilience. This structurally lowers loss severity and supports stable interest income through multiple economic cycles.

Accretive, fee‑efficient JV strategy

Scaling fee‑efficient JV vehicles (MMCF, SCP) leverages Carlyle’s origination platform to generate higher, fee‑free returns that accrete to equity. Over time this diversifies income sources, improves ROE potential, and creates durable fee‑free carry versus traditional fee structures.

Improved funding and active capital allocation

Lowered funding costs and matched floating‑rate debt reduce interest expense risk on floating assets, while modest leverage preserves balance‑sheet flexibility. Ongoing buybacks and expanded authorization indicate disciplined capital allocation and potential NAV accretion over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Operating cash‑flow volatility

Large swings in operating cash flow, including a substantial 2025 outflow, signal that reported investment income may not reliably convert to cash. Persistent cash volatility can constrain distributions, limit reinvestment, and increase sensitivity to funding shocks over the medium term.

2025 financial reporting inconsistencies

Inconsistent 2025 reporting (e.g., zeroed net income/debt and ROE collapse) undermines visibility into underlying earnings quality and leverage. Reduced transparency raises modelling risk for cash returns and impairs confidence in assessing durable capital adequacy and dividend coverage.

Yield pressure and dividend reliance

Structural rate cuts and tight spreads compress portfolio yields, reducing recurring NII. Declared dividends exceeding recent GAAP NII and reliance on spillover income raise sustainability questions; persistent yield compression could stress distributable cash over several quarters.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

How the Company Makes Money

TCG BDC generates revenue primarily through interest income and capital gains from its investment portfolio. The company makes money by charging interest on its loans to middle-market companies, which forms the core of its revenue stream. Additionally, it earns income from dividends on equity investments and may realize gains from the sale of investments. TCG BDC's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to source high-quality debt investments with favorable terms. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships to enhance its investment opportunities and expand its portfolio.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Historically strong profitability and generally stable capitalization (moderate leverage in 2020–2024), but the latest year shows major inconsistencies (net income and debt shown as 0) alongside a sharp deterioration in operating cash flow (2025: -$204.6M). These issues reduce confidence in the durability and quality of the reported rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue trends are volatile: after declines in 2022 and a flat 2024, 2025 shows a sharp rebound (+55.9% YoY). Profitability was very strong in 2021–2024 (net margins roughly 53%–81%), but 2025 profitability is not reported (net income and margin shown as 0), which creates uncertainty around the sustainability/quality of the latest growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate for a credit-focused manager/BDC-like profile in 2020–2024, with debt-to-equity around ~1.07–1.17 and equity generally stable (~$0.9B). However, 2025 balance sheet data appears inconsistent (total debt shown as 0 alongside higher assets/equity), and returns on equity drop to 0 in 2025 versus ~9%–10% in 2022–2024 (and ~17% in 2021), reducing confidence in the latest reported strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent: operating cash flow ranged from strong positives (e.g., 2023–2024) to a large outflow in 2025 (-$204.6M). While prior periods showed solid cash coverage versus earnings (roughly ~2.4x to ~4.9x in 2022–2024), the swing to negative cash flow in 2025 is a key risk and suggests higher volatility in underlying cash realization.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	255.57M	167.76M	172.80M	138.63M	198.72M
Gross Profit	0.00	99.28M	101.09M	94.67M	167.96M
EBITDA	5.30M	91.72M	94.72M	87.47M	161.13M
Net Income	0.00	88.98M	92.28M	85.64M	160.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.79B	1.93B	1.94B	2.04B	2.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	76.49M	29.67M	60.45M	16.09M	22.99M
Total Debt	0.00	967.65M	980.18M	1.08B	1.04B
Total Liabilities	1.62B	1.02B	1.03B	1.12B	1.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	905.20M	912.81M	917.42M	948.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-204.56M	104.27M	230.61M	71.47M	69.37M
Operating Cash Flow	-204.56M	104.27M	230.61M	71.47M	69.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-334.56M	0.00	0.00	-56.96M	6.06M
Financing Cash Flow	224.48M	-108.14M	-200.67M	-77.08M	-50.78M

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.91, below the 50-day MA of 12.37, and below the 200-day MA of 12.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CGBD.

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TRIN	66 Neutral	$1.14B	6.87	16.18%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$852.37M	9.14	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
NMFC	61 Neutral	$841.75M	59.91	5.43%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$834.74M	11.30	7.03%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%
PFLT	60 Neutral	$818.55M	23.67	3.44%	13.64%	36.91%	-48.79%
SLRC	58 Neutral	$799.23M	8.64	9.07%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Corporate Events

Carlyle Secured Lending Reports Strong 2025 Results, Dividend

On February 24, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting net investment income of $0.33 per share for the quarter and $1.48 per share for the year. Adjusted net investment income reached $0.36 per share for the quarter and $1.51 per share for 2025, while net asset value per share slipped 0.6% in the fourth quarter to $16.26 as the total fair value of investments rose to $2.5 billion.

The board declared a first-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.40 per common share on February 18, 2026, payable on April 16 to shareholders of record on March 31, signaling continued income distribution despite modest NAV pressure. Management emphasized record 2025 origination volumes, the expansion of its direct lending and origination platform, and the use of non-GAAP adjusted metrics and recent debt redemption to better reflect underlying portfolio economics and support its positioning in a more active middle-market lending environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Secured Lending Forms Structured Credit Partners JV

Carlyle Secured Lending, Carlyle Credit Solutions, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, and Sixth Street Lending Partners have formed Structured Credit Partners JV, LLC, a joint venture focused on investing in broadly syndicated first lien senior secured loans financed with long-term, non-mark-to-market CLO debt. The vehicle will be initially capitalized with $600 million of equity commitments, giving the participating business development companies highly diversified, actively managed corporate credit exposure and the potential for enhanced risk-adjusted returns without management or incentive fees at the CLO or JV level.

SCP will be governed jointly by Carlyle and Sixth Street, with each controlling roughly half of the CLOs, all of which will be wholly owned by the JV and managed by affiliates of the two firms under board oversight. By combining more than 35 years of CLO management experience and over $60 billion in CLO assets under management across more than 130 vehicles, the partners aim to use their scale and expertise to improve diversification, expand investment flexibility, and support accretive returns on equity for shareholders of the participating BDCs.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Secured Lending Schedules Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings Call

On January 27, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced that it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, and will host a public conference call and webcast on Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results. The scheduled earnings release and call will give investors and other stakeholders detailed insight into the company’s recent performance in the middle‑market lending space and provide an opportunity to assess how its senior secured lending strategy and portfolio are progressing heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CGBD) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Secured Lending Inc stock, see the CGBD Stock Forecast page.