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Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
(NASDAQ:CGBD)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-2.71% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality—especially volatile cash flow and meaningful leverage—despite solid profitability and improving TTM revenue growth. Valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and very high yield, while the latest earnings call is balanced: a base dividend reset and near-term earnings trough are offset by improving spreads, JV ramp-driven earnings potential, and NAV-accretive buybacks. Technical indicators remain neutral-to-weak with the price below key longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Origination Platform & Market Share
Sustained origination growth and closed commitments indicate a durable sourcing advantage. Growing platform originations and market-share gains in a down PE market support consistent deal flow, higher fee opportunities, and long-term income stability as new assets are deployed.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Erratic cash conversion undermines the durability of distributable earnings and internal funding for originations or debt reduction. Negative operating cash flow in 2025 despite profit signals quality-of-earnings risk and makes sustaining dividends and growth reliant on external financing or one-offs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Origination Platform & Market Share
Sustained origination growth and closed commitments indicate a durable sourcing advantage. Growing platform originations and market-share gains in a down PE market support consistent deal flow, higher fee opportunities, and long-term income stability as new assets are deployed.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Fair Value of Investments by Type
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Assesses the current market value of the company's investment portfolio, highlighting potential gains or losses and providing insight into asset quality and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$722.77M
Dividend Yield13.63%
Average Volume (3M)498.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth15.30%
EPS Growth-48.57%
CountryUS
Employees2,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding69,497,130
10 Day Avg. Volume481,414
30 Day Avg. Volume498,955
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)4.28
P/FCF Ratio-4.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside1.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$248.41M
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. functions as a business development company, primarily making direct investments. The firm provides a diverse array of financing, including first and second lien senior secured loans, unsecured debt, mezzanine debt, a...
How the Company Makes Money
CGBD makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of loans and other credit investments. The largest revenue stream is interest income earned on floating-rate and/or fixed-rate debt investments made to middle-market borr...
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong origination momentum, market share gains, increasing origination spreads, and meaningful progress ramping joint ventures (MMCF and SCP) which should drive future earnings and dividend upside. Offsetting these positives were a modest NAV decline driven by mark-to-market spread widening, a base dividend reset (-12.5%), portfolio runoff from elevated prepayments and sales, and an expected earnings trough in Q2. On balance, the operational and strategic positives (JV ramp, higher spreads, share buybacks at deep discounts, low leverage, and resilient credit metrics) are roughly balanced with near-term valuation pressures and income/headline adjustments.Positive Updates
Strong Platform Originations and Market Share Gains
Carlyle Direct Lending platform closed over $1.2 billion of new and incremental commitments and funded $217 million at Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.; platform originations were up 14% year-over-year while U.S. private equity deal activity was down nearly 25%, indicating share gains.
Negative Updates
NAV Decline and Mark-to-Market Losses
Net asset value per share decreased from $16.26 to $15.89 (down $0.37, ~-2.3%) as of March 31, 2026; aggregate realized and unrealized net loss for the quarter was about $29 million (≈ $0.42 per share), with ~2/3 attributable to unrealized spread widening.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Platform Originations and Market Share Gains
Carlyle Direct Lending platform closed over $1.2 billion of new and incremental commitments and funded $217 million at Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.; platform originations were up 14% year-over-year while U.S. private equity deal activity was down nearly 25%, indicating share gains.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a reset 2026 base dividend of $0.35 per share (down from $0.40), implying an 8.8% yield on NAV, while maintaining a supplemental dividend policy targeting at least 50% of excess earnings and estimating $0.70 per share of spillover to support the quarterly dividend; they expect earnings to trough in Q2 and rebound in Q3 as JV ramping contributes, and they expect portfolio growth in Q2 after investments fell from $2.5bn to $2.3bn in Q1. Management plans to scale JVs — MMCF equity commitments were upsized to $250m per partner, MMCF now has >$1bn of investments and is generating a 15% dividend yield supported by a $1.2bn credit facility at SOFR+170bps (prior facility SOFR+180bps) — and SCP (Carlyle committed $150m of $600m equity) expects to price/close two more CLOs in 2026, target a cadence of four CLOs/year, pursue a 400–500bp uplift to returns and ultimately manage ~ $67bn fee‑free; balance‑sheet positioning includes 100% floating‑rate debt, statutory leverage ~1.25x (net financial leverage ~1.06x), limited maturities until 2030, and continued buybacks (Q1 repurchases $19m at a 26% average discount = $0.09 NAV accretion; an additional $8m in Q2 = $0.05 accretion) under an expanded $300m repurchase program.Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 217.11M | 197.79M | 167.76M | 172.80M | 138.63M | 198.72M |
| Gross Profit | 163.53M | 140.23M | 99.28M | 101.09M | 94.67M | 167.96M |
| EBITDA | 104.38M | 165.27M | 95.20M | 94.72M | 87.47M | 161.13M |
| Net Income | 51.70M | 69.97M | 88.98M | 92.28M | 85.64M | 160.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.56B | 2.79B | 1.93B | 1.94B | 2.04B | 2.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 97.24M | 76.49M | 29.67M | 60.45M | 16.09M | 22.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.38B | 1.53B | 967.65M | 980.18M | 1.08B | 1.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.44B | 1.62B | 1.02B | 1.03B | 1.12B | 1.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.12B | 1.17B | 905.20M | 912.81M | 917.42M | 948.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 46.25M | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 46.25M | -204.56M | 104.27M | 230.61M | 71.47M | 69.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -184.22M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -56.96M | 6.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.67M | 224.48M | -108.14M | -200.67M | -77.08M | -50.78M |
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
11.82
Price Trends
10.71
Negative
10.68
Negative
11.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
45.74
Neutral
8.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CGBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.52, above the 50-day MA of 10.71, and above the 200-day MA of 11.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CGBD.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Risk Analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Secured Lending Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.56B | 8.40 | 14.73% | 13.53% | 4.03% | -16.92% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $707.42M | 10.58 | 5.84% | 13.64% | -8.63% | -30.41% | |
60 Neutral | $821.88M | 11.09 | 6.57% | 13.18% | 2.31% | -35.07% | |
59 Neutral | $722.77M | 14.64 | 4.42% | 13.63% | 15.30% | -48.57% | |
56 Neutral | $696.12M | 7.78 | 9.04% | 10.80% | -3.59% | 2.19% | |
53 Neutral | $664.94M | ― | -4.83% | 14.17% | -24.31% | -157.16% |
* Financial Sector Average
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
10.40
-1.77
-14.54%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
7.04
-2.17
-23.56%
PFLT
Pennantpark
7.13
-2.12
-22.94%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.76
-1.86
-12.73%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
12.67
-0.60
-4.49%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
17.30
4.88
39.34%
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carlyle Secured Lending Stockholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected Linda Pace and William H. Wright II as Class I directors to three-year terms, following a vote in which 41,339,639 of the 70...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Carlyle Secured Lending Shareholders Approve Discounted Equity Issuance
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. held a special meeting at which stockholders voted on whether to allow the company, with board approval, to issue common shares over the next 12 months at prices below then-current net asset value per...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Reports Q1 2026 Results, Resets Dividend
Neutral
May 11, 2026
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc., a Nasdaq-listed business development company under the Carlyle Global Credit umbrella, focuses on providing debt financing to U.S. middle-market companies to generate income and capital appreciation. Since launching ...
Financial Disclosures
Carlyle Secured Lending Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results
Neutral
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. announced it would report its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, on Monday, May 11, 2026. The company also scheduled a conference call at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time that day ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.