Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)
NASDAQ:CARL
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Carlsmed, Inc.
(NASDAQ:CARL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-18.03% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/06/26
The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses and heavy cash burn, reinforced by a bearish technical trend. Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call showed strong growth momentum and raised guidance with sustained high gross margins, but valuation remains difficult to assess given negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Acceleration
Sharp, recurring revenue acceleration and raised guidance indicate durable commercial traction. Growing procedure volumes and a larger surgeon base translate to predictable topline scale over the next 2–6 months, improving the potential for operating leverage as fixed costs are absorbed.
Negative Factors
Persistent Heavy Cash Burn
Cash generation remains structurally negative with growing absolute burn, meaning the business will rely on external financing until adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow turn positive. That reliance constrains long‑term optionality and raises execution risk if growth or margins slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Acceleration
Sharp, recurring revenue acceleration and raised guidance indicate durable commercial traction. Growing procedure volumes and a larger surgeon base translate to predictable topline scale over the next 2–6 months, improving the potential for operating leverage as fixed costs are absorbed.
Read all positive factors
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$292.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)112.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.79
Revenue Growth74.90%
EPS Growth-30.02%
CountryUS
Employees100
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.44
Shares Outstanding27,184,933
10 Day Avg. Volume137,166
30 Day Avg. Volume112,675
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)3.48
P/FCF Ratio-5.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.40Price Target Upside67.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$72.83M
Carlsmed, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carlsmed, Inc. develops and operates a surgical platform for the treatment of complex adult spinal deformities that enables surgeons to harness clinical intelligence, advanced image recognition, and 3D printing technologies. Its product includes a...
How the Company Makes Money
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Carlsmed, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and clinical momentum: robust top-line growth (Q1 revenue +58%), significant surgeon adoption (+60% surgeon users YoY), production efficiencies (lead time cut >30%, gross margin +220 bps), compelling peer‑reviewed clinical outcomes (74% reduction in two-year revisions), and constructive reimbursement developments (NTAP renewal and proposed favorable CMS coding). Offsetting these positives are rising operating expenses (+61% YoY), deeper GAAP losses and negative adjusted EBITDA, and higher cash burn from operations. The company raised full-year revenue guidance and expects operating leverage as revenue scales, while some policy items remain preliminary. On balance, the business appears to be in a growth-investment phase with improving unit economics and strong market validation but elevated near-term losses as it invests to scale.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $16.1M, up 58% year-over-year from $10.2M, driven by expansion of surgeon user base and increased unit volume sales.
Negative Updates
Increasing Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses rose to $21.7M in Q1 2026 from $13.4M in Q1 2025 (+61.2%), driven by higher R&D ($5.2M vs $3.2M, +62.5%), sales & marketing ($10.3M vs $6.7M, +53.7%), and G&A ($6.2M vs $3.5M, +77.1%).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $16.1M, up 58% year-over-year from $10.2M, driven by expansion of surgeon user base and increased unit volume sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carlsmed raised full‑year 2026 revenue guidance to $72–$77 million (about 48% growth at the midpoint vs. FY2025) and expects gross margins to remain in the mid‑to‑high‑70% range, while forecasting average revenue per procedure in the mid‑to‑high $20k range as cervical procedures (expected to contribute high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit percent of revenue) scale; management also expects operating‑expense leverage and continued adjusted EBITDA improvement on a path toward cash‑flow breakeven. This guidance is supported by Q1 results of $16.1M revenue (+58% YoY), 77.1% gross margin (+220 bps YoY), $21.7M operating expenses, GAAP net loss of $8.7M, adjusted EBITDA (ex‑SBC) of −$7.5M, $97.1M cash & investments, $15.6M outstanding on a $50M debt facility, $13.0M cash used in operations in Q1, and operational improvements (lead time down >30% to six business days) to support scale.Carlsmed, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 56.44M | 50.51M | 27.16M | 13.78M |
| Gross Profit | 42.83M | 38.04M | 20.05M | 9.90M |
| EBITDA | -37.82M | -28.51M | -22.79M | -18.12M |
| Net Income | -33.19M | -30.22M | -24.26M | -18.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 118.77M | 130.12M | 51.82M | 14.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 97.02M | 109.79M | 40.13M | 7.22M |
| Total Debt | 17.25M | 17.41M | 17.18M | 11.39M |
| Total Liabilities | 26.52M | 31.25M | 122.45M | 60.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 92.25M | 98.87M | -70.63M | -46.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.31M | -29.62M | -25.65M | -17.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -33.83M | -28.98M | -25.47M | -17.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.45M | -25.48M | -180.00K | -135.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 88.86M | 100.13M | 58.50M | 3.18M |
Carlsmed, Inc. Risk Analysis
Carlsmed, Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlsmed, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlsmed, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.33B | 22.23 | 22.89% | ― | 13.05% | -12.34% | |
56 Neutral | $1.19B | -3.82 | -12.37% | ― | -1.50% | 83.75% | |
55 Neutral | $129.99M | -2.00 | -35.14% | ― | -9.29% | 46.89% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $292.51M | -6.98 | -61.82% | ― | 74.90% | -30.02% | |
49 Neutral | $57.73M | -2.63 | -571.06% | ― | ― | 23.73% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CARL
Carlsmed, Inc.
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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