Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $352.62M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 65.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.56
• Revenue Growth: 102.57%
• EPS Growth: -5.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 100
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 26,592,909
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 85,401
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 65,477
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.84
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -10.74
• 1Y Price Target: $20.25
• Price Target Upside: 52.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $46.61M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-1.96% Downside)

Carlsmed, Inc.'s overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance, which shows rapid revenue growth but significant profitability and stability concerns. The technical analysis suggests mixed signals, while the valuation is weak due to negative earnings. However, the recent corporate event of securing a credit facility is a positive step towards improving financial flexibility.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth projections indicate robust demand and successful market expansion, enhancing long-term business prospects.

Product Innovation

The upcoming launch of the cervical spine platform showcases Carlsmed's commitment to innovation, potentially expanding its market and competitive edge.

Gross Margin Expansion

Improved gross margins and user growth reflect operational efficiency and product acceptance, supporting sustainable profitability.

Negative Factors

Negative Equity

Negative equity suggests financial instability, limiting Carlsmed's ability to leverage financing for growth and potentially affecting long-term viability.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder Carlsmed's ability to achieve sustainable financial health.

High Debt Levels

High debt reliance poses financial risk, potentially constraining Carlsmed's strategic options and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Carlsmed, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carlsmed, Inc. develops and operates a surgical platform for the treatment of complex adult spinal deformities that enables surgeons to harness clinical intelligence, advanced image recognition, and 3D printing technologies. Its product includes aprevo, a medical platform that makes surgical plans and devices tailored to the precise medical situation of every individual patient. It provides New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) reimbursement. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Carlsmed generates revenue primarily through the sale of its surgical products, including customized spinal implants and surgical guides. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to hospitals and surgical centers, where its products are utilized in orthopedic surgeries. Additionally, Carlsmed may engage in partnerships with healthcare providers and surgical device distributors, which can enhance market reach and facilitate sales. The company could also explore licensing agreements or collaborations for joint product development, contributing to its income streams. Overall, the combination of product sales and strategic partnerships is key to Carlsmed's financial performance.

Carlsmed, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlsmed, Inc. shows strong revenue growth but faces significant profitability and financial stability challenges. Negative equity and ongoing losses, coupled with reliance on debt, are concerning. Despite improved cash flow generation, negative cash flows indicate liquidity issues.

Income Statement

Carlsmed, Inc. demonstrated significant revenue growth of 434.11% year-over-year, indicating strong market demand or expansion. However, the company is facing profitability challenges, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, and a net loss. The gross profit margin is healthy at 73.81%, but the high operating expenses are impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but the company has a high level of debt relative to its assets. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Carlsmed, Inc. shows a substantial increase in free cash flow, with a growth rate of 243.64%, suggesting improved cash generation capabilities. However, both operating and free cash flows remain negative, indicating ongoing cash burn and potential liquidity challenges. The ratios of cash flow to net income are not favorable due to negative net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.75M	―	27.16M	―	13.78M
Gross Profit	33.46M	―	20.05M	―	9.90M
EBITDA	-24.04M	―	-22.79M	―	-18.12M
Net Income	-25.74M	―	-24.26M	―	-18.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	134.86M	―	51.82M	―	14.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.37M	―	40.13M	―	7.22M
Total Debt	17.61M	―	17.18M	―	11.39M
Total Liabilities	28.20M	―	122.45M	―	60.15M
Stockholders Equity	106.66M	―	-70.63M	―	-46.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.05M	―	-25.65M	―	-17.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-27.86M	―	-25.47M	―	-17.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.31M	―	-180.00K	―	-135.00K
Financing Cash Flow	100.11M	―	58.50M	―	3.18M

Carlsmed, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DOCS	72 Outperform	$8.65B	36.64	24.61%	―	20.21%	44.14%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CARL	49 Neutral	$352.62M	―	―	―	102.57%	-5.76%
AMWL	48 Neutral	$81.57M	―	-38.35%	―	4.33%	50.50%
TDOC	47 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-15.42%	―	-2.37%	77.85%
BEAT	34 Underperform	$56.61M	-2.37	-792.01%	―	―	4.31%

Carlsmed, Inc. Corporate Events

Carlsmed Secures $60 Million Credit Facility Amendment

On October 29, 2025, Carlsmed, Inc. amended its Loan and Security Agreement with Customers Bank, securing a credit facility that includes a $50 million term loan and a $10 million revolving line of credit. The amendment also modifies warrants previously issued to Customers Bank, reducing the number of shares exercisable under the Series B and Series C Warrants, thereby canceling rights to exercise for 15,831 shares of common stock. This financial restructuring aims to support Carlsmed’s operational flexibility and growth potential, contingent upon achieving certain revenue milestones.