Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $482.48M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 87.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 13.96%
• EPS Growth: 25.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 292
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 27,824,566
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 112,842
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 87,551
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.40
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: 26.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $168.25M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(15.11% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/03/26

The score is anchored by solid operating performance and a positive outlook on net interest margin expansion and growth, supported by a reasonable P/E. Offsetting this are weaker 2025 cash-flow quality/consistency, mixed near-term technical momentum, and some dilution overhang from the new ATM program.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profitability

Meaningful top-line expansion (+32% YoY) alongside solid 2025 profitability and tangible book growth indicates the commercial banking franchise is scaling. Diversified NII and noninterest income gains point to sustainable earnings rather than one-off volatility.

NIM Expansion & Funding Mix

A clearer repricing runway and a funding mix with $1.8B of short-term/adjustable funding support a durable NIM improvement. Lower deposit costs and rising adjustable-rate assets reduce asset-liability mismatch and improve margin resilience as rates evolve.

Core Deposit & Loan Growth

Sustained core deposit inflows and double-digit loan growth reflect sticky, commercial-oriented customer relationships. Strategic concentration in affordable housing and construction supplies repeatable, higher-growth verticals that support NII and fee income over multiple cycles.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

A sharp FCF step-down and poor cash conversion in 2025 reduce internal funding reliability. Volatile cash generation limits flexibility for buybacks, dividends, or opportunistic investments and increases dependence on external capital when funding growth or absorbing losses.

Leverage Reliance

Moderate leverage and a step-up in absolute debt since 2021 increase sensitivity to funding stress. With CET1 only modestly improved, the bank has less capital cushion versus more conservatively capitalized peers, which can constrain lending or require capital raises under strain.

ATM Equity Program / Dilution Risk

A $50M ATM program provides capital optionality but signals potential external funding reliance. Repeated use would dilute shareholders and may suggest internal cash or earnings are insufficient to fund growth or acquisitions, impacting long-run return on equity.

Bridgewater Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Bridgewater Bank that provides banking products and services to commercial real estate investors, small business entrepreneurs, and high net worth individuals in the United States. The company offers savings and money market accounts, demand deposits, time and brokered deposits, and interest and noninterest bearing transaction, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial loans to sole proprietorships, partnerships, corporations, and other business enterprises to finance accounts receivable or inventory, capital assets, or other business-related purposes; paycheck protection program loans; construction and land development loans; 1-4 family mortgage loans; multifamily lending products; owner and non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans; and consumer and other loans. In addition, the company online, mobile, and direct banking services. It operates through seven full-service offices located in Bloomington, Greenwood, Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, Orono, and St. Paul, Minnesota. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridgewater Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income derived from its loan portfolio, which includes commercial and residential loans. The company earns interest on loans issued to customers, with the interest rates determined by market conditions and the creditworthiness of borrowers. Additionally, Bridgewater Bank collects fees from various banking services, such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and treasury management services. The bank's revenue model is bolstered by its focus on relationship banking, which fosters long-term client relationships and encourages cross-selling of products. Furthermore, the company benefits from a diversified lending strategy and prudent risk management practices that contribute to stable earnings over time.

Bridgewater Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (Income Statement Score 74) shows solid revenue growth and still-healthy 2025 profitability, but balance sheet quality is only moderate (Balance Sheet Score 62) with leverage reliance as a watch item. The main drag is weak and volatile cash generation (Cash Flow Score 45) with a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow step-down and poor cash conversion versus earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over time (2020–2025), with 2025 showing mid-single-digit growth. Profitability remains solid in 2025 (net margin ~16%, EBIT margin ~21%), and earnings improved versus 2024. However, margins are well below the unusually strong 2021–2022 levels, indicating a less favorable profitability environment than a few years ago and some sensitivity in the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage for a regional bank, with debt roughly in line with equity in 2023–2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.0), an improvement from the higher leverage seen in 2022. Equity has grown alongside assets, and returns on equity are steady but not standout (high-single-digits in 2024–2025, ~9% in 2025). The main watch item is the step-up in absolute debt since 2021 and the reliance on leverage to support growth.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened notably in 2025: operating cash flow fell versus 2024 and free cash flow dropped sharply (down ~55% year over year). While free cash flow was positive, it did not track reported earnings well in 2025 (free cash flow-to-net income shown as 0.0), following much healthier conversion in 2021–2024 (roughly near parity). The volatility—especially the 2020 negative free cash flow and the 2025 step-down—reduces confidence in near-term cash consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	291.63M	251.44M	226.95M	169.34M	134.19M
Gross Profit	137.62M	104.22M	109.94M	127.64M	109.67M
EBITDA	64.70M	45.74M	55.66M	74.96M	64.13M
Net Income	46.09M	32.83M	39.96M	53.39M	45.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.41B	5.07B	4.61B	4.35B	3.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	899.95M	619.83M	732.67M	636.84M	584.71M
Total Debt	508.18M	452.92M	412.54M	476.65M	134.74M
Total Liabilities	4.89B	4.61B	4.19B	3.95B	3.10B
Stockholders Equity	517.10M	457.94M	425.51M	394.06M	379.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	21.96M	42.30M	27.05M	83.37M	53.46M
Operating Cash Flow	27.81M	46.38M	30.02M	85.00M	54.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-417.47M	-95.24M	-209.18M	-938.24M	-571.42M
Financing Cash Flow	283.40M	150.06M	220.69M	796.81M	499.99M

Bridgewater Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BWB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.82, below the 50-day MA of 18.49, and below the 200-day MA of 17.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BWB.

Bridgewater Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NRIM	67 Neutral	$505.62M	9.10	21.32%	2.31%	36.60%	92.63%
AROW	66 Neutral	$550.17M	11.79	10.58%	3.59%	6.86%	6.11%
BWB	63 Neutral	$482.48M	10.41	8.63%	―	13.96%	25.74%
ACNB	63 Neutral	$489.20M	13.39	9.18%	2.78%	41.95%	-4.72%
FFIC	53 Neutral	$514.35M	27.71	2.67%	5.16%	-11.91%	-235.73%
FFWM	46 Neutral	$485.12M	-15.87	-15.74%	―	-6.47%	-75.82%

Bridgewater Bancshares Corporate Events

Bridgewater Bancshares Launches $50 Million ATM Equity Program

On February 27, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. and its subsidiary Bridgewater Bank entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with Piper Sandler & Co. that allows the company to sell up to $50 million of common stock from time to time through at-the-market offerings and other permitted methods. The company will control sale parameters, pay a 2.5% commission and certain expenses to the distribution agent, and may suspend or terminate the program at any time.

Any shares sold will be issued under an existing effective shelf registration statement and related prospectus supplements filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bridgewater Bancshares plans to use net proceeds for general corporate purposes, potentially including investments in subsidiaries, working capital, capital expenditures, stock repurchases, debt repayment, or financing possible acquisitions, providing added capital flexibility for future strategic and operational needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWB) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridgewater Bancshares stock, see the BWB Stock Forecast page.

Bridgewater Bancshares Updates Investor Presentation Highlighting Strategy

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. has released an investor presentation intended for periodic use by its executives in meetings with investors and analysts, detailing its business model, financial position and strategic focus. The materials emphasize the bank’s commercial-oriented franchise in the Twin Cities, its branch-light efficiency, and its track record of consistent profitability and asset quality.

The presentation also outlines the bank’s concentration in multifamily and commercial real estate lending, affordable housing finance and business banking, underscoring its positioning as an “entrepreneurial bank” in a growing regional market. By formalizing and furnishing this updated investor deck, Bridgewater seeks to provide greater transparency into its operations and performance metrics, which may help support investor understanding of its risk profile, growth strategy and competitive stance versus other regional and community banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWB) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridgewater Bancshares stock, see the BWB Stock Forecast page.

Bridgewater Bancshares Posts Strong Q4 and 2025 Results

On January 27, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with net income rising to $13.3 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, up from $11.6 million in the prior quarter and $8.2 million a year earlier, supported by higher net interest income, improved net interest margin of 2.75%, and a 52.7% jump in noninterest income. For full-year 2025, net income reached $46.1 million, or $1.49 per diluted share, as pre-provision net revenue climbed 42.1% year over year, tangible book value per share increased 15.3% to $15.55, and both deposits and loans expanded, while credit costs remained low with net loan charge-offs at 0.04% of average loans; management highlighted efficiency gains following a systems conversion, continued benefits from M&A disruption in the Twin Cities, and plans to drive profitable growth and expand key verticals such as affordable housing in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (BWB) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridgewater Bancshares stock, see the BWB Stock Forecast page.