Bavarian Nordic A/S (BVNRY)
OTHER OTC:BVNRY
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Bavarian Nordic
(OTC:BVNRY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(6.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (profitability improvement, positive free cash flow, and very low leverage) and a constructive earnings update (raised 2026 guidance and contract wins). These strengths are partially offset by weak technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some operating variability (uneven revenue trajectory and cash-flow timing effects).
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.01) provides durable financial flexibility to fund operations, absorb government payment timing swings, pursue selective M&A or return capital, and materially lowers solvency risk versus peers—supporting long-term operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue Volatility & Lumpy Public Preparedness
Top-line shows choppiness (TTM revenue decline ~4.6%) and public preparedness contract timing causes quarter-to-quarter volatility. This lumpy demand pattern complicates forecasting, can create margin swings from phasing, and reduces predictability of sustained organic growth rates.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.01) provides durable financial flexibility to fund operations, absorb government payment timing swings, pursue selective M&A or return capital, and materially lowers solvency risk versus peers—supporting long-term operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.43B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)793.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)214.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth1.54%
EPS Growth-3.37%
CountryUS
Employees1,645
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.87
Shares Outstanding237,712,550
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio6.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.51
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/...
How the Company Makes Money
Bavarian Nordic makes money primarily by selling vaccines and related services, supplemented by licensing/partnering and contract revenue tied to government and commercial customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: Revenue from com...
Bavarian Nordic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear positives: solid Q1 revenue (DKK 1.058b), Travel Health growth (14%), successful global rollout of Vimkunya with DKK 41m in Q1, a meaningful BARDA order that completed a long-term freeze-dried contract and led management to raise full-year revenue guidance to DKK 5.5–5.7b and EBITDA margin to ~28%. Management highlighted strong manufacturing performance, secured Public Preparedness revenues (DKK 2.0b secured with DKK 300–500m expected more), and progress on key R&D readouts (Phase II cell-line interim data due later in 2026). The principal negatives are operational timing risks and one-off cash outflows: U.S. regulatory/publication delays (CDC MMWR) creating headwinds for U.S. uptake of Vimkunya, Encepur inventory/shelf-life timing effects that pressured reported Q1 product sales (though market share and market growth are healthy), negative Q1 operating cash flow impacted by milestone payments, and staged pipeline advancement. Overall, positives (raised guidance, contract wins, product rollouts and strong Travel Health metrics) appear to outweigh the manageable and largely timing-related lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue and Improved Full-Year Guidance
Total Q1 revenue DKK 1.058 billion (Public Preparedness DKK 294m; Travel Health DKK 721m). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to DKK 5.5–5.7 billion and increased EBITDA margin target to ~28% (up from 25%).
Negative Updates
U.S. Headwinds for Vimkunya (Chikungunya)
U.S. demand for Vimkunya hindered by delay in CDC MMWR publication of the recommendation and by limited CDC outbreak guidance; some wholesalers are withholding stock until official publication. Management notes publication could take 12–18 months, posing upside/downside risk to the DKK 250m guidance if delayed.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Revenue and Improved Full-Year Guidance
Total Q1 revenue DKK 1.058 billion (Public Preparedness DKK 294m; Travel Health DKK 721m). Company raised 2026 revenue guidance to DKK 5.5–5.7 billion and increased EBITDA margin target to ~28% (up from 25%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 guidance: revenue is now expected at DKK 5.5–5.7 billion with an EBITDA margin of ~28% (up from ~25%), driven by an upgraded Public Preparedness outlook of DKK 2.3–2.5 billion (DKK 2.0 billion already secured and an expected additional DKK 300–500 million) while Travel Health guidance remains unchanged (Q1 Travel Health revenue DKK 721 million; Vimkunya full‑year target DKK 250 million). Q1 results underpin the outlook: total revenue DKK 1.058 billion (Public Preparedness DKK 294 million), gross margin 45%, R&D spend DKK 175 million, EBITDA DKK 165 million (16% margin) and cash ≈DKK 2.3 billion at quarter‑end (≈DKK 2.2 billion post share buyback). Capital actions include an ongoing DKK 500 million buyback (≈DKK 350 million executed, ≈DKK 100 million remaining); noteworthy contract metrics include a recent BARDA $97 million order toward the 11.5 million‑dose freeze‑dried program (BN has received >$1.2 billion under that program since 2017). Operational growth signals cited: Travel Health +14% (Q1 excl. discontinued partner revenue), rabies +23% (U.S.) and +29% (Germany), Encepur market +12% with BN +1pp market share, and Vivotif +12% in Q1.Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.66B | 5.93B | 5.72B | 7.06B | 3.15B | 1.90B |
| Gross Profit | 2.81B | 2.81B | 2.82B | 4.53B | 1.70B | 570.32M |
| EBITDA | 2.25B | 1.57B | 1.67B | 2.05B | 84.28M | 35.80M |
| Net Income | 1.18B | 1.32B | 987.98M | 1.48B | -347.38M | -464.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.12B | 14.95B | 14.41B | 14.35B | 12.39B | 12.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.29B | 3.33B | 2.18B | 1.87B | 2.85B | 3.72B |
| Total Debt | 139.42M | 130.86M | 128.25M | 145.30M | 1.76B | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.42B | 2.08B | 3.00B | 4.01B | 5.24B | 4.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.70B | 12.87B | 11.41B | 10.34B | 7.15B | 7.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.36B | 2.42B | 262.19M | 141.80M | -1.16B | -1.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.34B | 2.62B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 220.05M | -358.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -2.39B | -1.87B | -945.56M | -877.40M | -2.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.16M | -109.97M | 55.77M | 735.83M | 635.82M | 3.54B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Positive
10.36
Price Trends
9.97
Positive
10.06
Positive
10.71
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
55.16
Neutral
71.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.95, above the 50-day MA of 9.97, and below the 200-day MA of 10.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BVNRY.
Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.43B | 214.27 | 9.25% | ― | 1.54% | -3.37% | |
62 Neutral | $5.24B | -12.41 | -49.23% | ― | -100.00% | -46.29% | |
62 Neutral | $7.01B | -8.96 | -65.80% | ― | ― | -1.22% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $2.30B | -2.85 | 1566.94% | ― | 13.33% | -3.82% | |
50 Neutral | $6.49B | -29.33 | -25.02% | ― | -12.58% | -15.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BVNRY
Bavarian Nordic
10.19
1.68
19.67%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.