Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.37B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 793.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 15.28%
• EPS Growth: 123.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,645
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 237,712,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 793
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 56.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.08
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(9.56% Upside)

Bavarian Nordic's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by robust revenue growth and market expansion. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and cash flow challenges need addressing. The earnings call provided positive insights but also highlighted some operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective product positioning, supporting long-term business expansion.

Market Expansion

Expansion in key markets like the U.S. and Germany enhances Bavarian Nordic's competitive position and revenue base, driving sustainable growth.

Product Launch Success

Successful product launches expand Bavarian Nordic's portfolio and market reach, providing new revenue streams and strengthening its market presence.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining free cash flow can limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, impacting long-term sustainability.

Financial Guidance Refinement

Refining guidance to the lower end suggests potential revenue volatility, which may affect investor confidence and strategic planning.

Regulatory Delays

Regulatory delays can hinder market penetration and revenue generation, affecting the company's ability to capitalize on new product launches.

Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers. It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service. The company operates in the United States, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

How the Company Makes Money

Bavarian Nordic generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines and immunotherapies. Key revenue streams include product sales, particularly from its smallpox and monkeypox vaccines, and government contracts for vaccine development and supply. The company also engages in partnerships and collaborations with various pharmaceutical companies and governmental organizations, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales. These partnerships often focus on advancing clinical programs and expanding market opportunities for its product pipeline. Additionally, Bavarian Nordic may receive funding from grants or public health initiatives aimed at enhancing vaccine availability and research efforts.

Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bavarian Nordic demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by a robust balance sheet with low leverage. However, cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation, need to be addressed to sustain growth.

Income Statement

Bavarian Nordic shows strong revenue growth with a 6.69% increase in TTM, and robust profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 53.10% and a net profit margin of 22.04%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 22.69% and 32.79%, respectively. The company has successfully turned around from previous losses, indicating a positive trajectory in its financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity is strong at 12.45%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a healthy capital structure. However, the company should maintain vigilance on asset management to ensure continued stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, covering net income with a ratio of 1.07. However, the free cash flow has declined significantly, with a negative growth rate of -395.96%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating potential cash management challenges. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support long-term investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.89B	5.72B	7.06B	3.15B	1.90B	1.85B
Gross Profit	3.74B	2.82B	4.53B	1.70B	570.32M	657.29M
EBITDA	3.21B	1.67B	2.05B	84.28M	35.80M	657.91M
Net Income	2.44B	987.98M	1.48B	-347.38M	-464.77M	277.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.16B	14.41B	14.35B	12.39B	12.09B	8.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.98B	2.18B	1.87B	2.85B	3.72B	1.67B
Total Debt	134.04M	128.25M	145.30M	1.76B	1.13B	470.06M
Total Liabilities	2.00B	3.00B	4.01B	5.24B	4.71B	3.86B
Stockholders Equity	13.16B	11.41B	10.34B	7.15B	7.37B	4.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.28B	262.19M	141.80M	-1.16B	-1.42B	-134.80M
Operating Cash Flow	3.13B	1.95B	1.12B	220.05M	-358.50M	571.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.90B	-1.87B	-945.56M	-877.40M	-2.88B	-1.91B
Financing Cash Flow	-120.96M	55.77M	735.83M	635.82M	3.54B	1.33B

Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.85, below the 50-day MA of 10.53, and below the 200-day MA of 10.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BVNRY.

Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BVNRY	75 Outperform	$2.37B	6.36	20.01%	―	15.28%	123.92%
RARE	57 Neutral	$3.30B	-5.76	-325.76%	―	20.63%	8.09%
KYMR	56 Neutral	$6.42B	-22.61	-32.09%	―	-50.05%	-54.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
APLS	50 Neutral	$3.16B	84.10	14.10%	―	42.11%	―
XENE	48 Neutral	$3.47B	-11.54	-45.14%	―	―	-38.30%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$5.27B	-9.25	-95.93%	―	―	-27.70%

Bavarian Nordic Corporate Events

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong Revenue Growth in 2025

Bavarian Nordic A/S is a global vaccine company specializing in the development and production of vaccines for infectious diseases, with a strong focus on travel health and public preparedness sectors.

New Phase 2b Trial by Icon Plc and Bavarian Nordic: A Closer Look at MVA-BN Vaccine Developments

Icon Plc and Bavarian Nordic A/S have announced a new clinical study titled ‘A Randomized, Double-blind, Phase 2b Comparability Trial in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age to Assess Immunogenicity, Safety, and Reactogenicity of the MVA-BN Vaccine Manufactured in Different Production Cells.’ This study aims to evaluate the immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of the MVA-BN vaccine produced in two different cell lines, targeting the prevention of monkeypox (Mpox).

Bavarian Nordic’s CHIKV VLP Vaccine Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Pediatric Immunization

Study Overview: Bavarian Nordic A/S is conducting a Phase 3 clinical trial titled A Phase 3 Global, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Safety and Immunogenicity Study of CHIKV VLP Vaccine in Children 2 to <12 Years of Age. The study aims to assess the safety and immune response of the CHIKV VLP vaccine in young children, addressing a significant public health need by targeting the chikungunya virus.

Bavarian Nordic’s MVA-BN Vaccine Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Orthopoxvirus Prevention

Study Overview: Bavarian Nordic A/S is conducting an open-label, multicenter study titled ‘Open-label, Multicenter Immunogenicity and Safety Study of MVA-BN Vaccine in Children from 2 Years to Less Than 12 Years of Age Compared to Adults for the Prevention of Smallpox, Mpox, and Related Orthopoxvirus Infections.’ The study aims to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of the MVA-BN vaccine in children compared to adults, which is significant for expanding preventive measures against smallpox, mpox, and related infections.

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong Earnings and Growth

Bavarian Nordic’s recent earnings call revealed a generally positive sentiment, driven by strong revenue growth and successful vaccine sales. The company highlighted significant achievements in the Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments, which were instrumental in their financial success. Despite some challenges, such as declines in certain vaccine sales and concerns over Chikungunya outbreaks, the positive aspects notably outweighed the negatives, painting an optimistic picture for the company’s future.

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong H1 2025 Results

Bavarian Nordic A/S is a global vaccine company specializing in innovative vaccines for travel health and public preparedness, with a strong portfolio in mpox and smallpox vaccines. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 33% increase in revenue to DKK 2,998 million, driven by significant growth in its Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments. The Travel Health segment saw a 24% revenue increase primarily due to rabies and tick-borne encephalitis vaccines, while Public Preparedness revenue surged by 51% due to strategic order phasing. The company’s EBITDA reached DKK 961 million, with a margin of 32%. Bavarian Nordic has refined its full-year revenue guidance to DKK 6,000-6,600 million, with an expected EBITDA margin of 40-42% including special items. Looking forward, Bavarian Nordic remains optimistic about its growth strategy, focusing on expanding its commercial footprint and securing additional contracts in its Public Preparedness business.