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Bavarian Nordic A/S (BVNRY)
OTHER OTC:BVNRY
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Bavarian Nordic
(OTC:BVNRY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(6.18% Upside)
Bavarian Nordic's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by robust revenue growth and market expansion. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and cash flow challenges need addressing. The earnings call provided positive insights but also highlighted some operational challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective product positioning, supporting long-term business expansion.
Market Expansion
Expansion in key markets like the U.S. and Germany enhances Bavarian Nordic's competitive position and revenue base, driving sustainable growth.
Product Launch Success
Successful product launches expand Bavarian Nordic's portfolio and market reach, providing new revenue streams and strengthening its market presence.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining free cash flow can limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, impacting long-term sustainability.
Financial Guidance Refinement
Refining guidance to the lower end suggests potential revenue volatility, which may affect investor confidence and strategic planning.
Regulatory Delays
Regulatory delays can hinder market penetration and revenue generation, affecting the company's ability to capitalize on new product launches.
Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.43B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)793.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth15.28%
EPS Growth123.92%
CountryUS
Employees1,645
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding237,712,550
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)2.58
P/FCF Ratio56.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.27
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers. It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service. The company operates in the United States, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyBavarian Nordic generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines and immunotherapies. Key revenue streams include product sales, particularly from its smallpox and monkeypox vaccines, and government contracts for vaccine development and supply. The company also engages in partnerships and collaborations with various pharmaceutical companies and governmental organizations, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales. These partnerships often focus on advancing clinical programs and expanding market opportunities for its product pipeline. Additionally, Bavarian Nordic may receive funding from grants or public health initiatives aimed at enhancing vaccine availability and research efforts.
Bavarian Nordic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in both revenue and market expansion for Bavarian Nordic, especially in the Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments. However, there were some challenges related to the refinement of financial guidance and delays affecting the U.S. launch of the chikungunya vaccine.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue Growth
Bavarian Nordic achieved close to DKK 4.8 billion in total revenues, marking a 32% increase compared to the previous year. This growth was driven by strong performance across both Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments.
Travel Health Business Expansion
The Travel Health business experienced its strongest quarter, with a 23% increase in sales year-over-year. Key products such as rabies and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) vaccines showed significant market share gains, particularly in the U.S. and Germany.
Successful Launch of Chikungunya Vaccine
The chikungunya vaccine, Vimkunya, was launched in 10 countries and is expected to meet the target of DKK 75 million in sales during its first launch year. Future growth potential is projected as the market could grow to $500 million annually.
Public Preparedness Revenue Surge
The Public Preparedness segment secured DKK 3.1 billion in revenue, which is DKK 1 billion higher than the normal annual base, due to increased government contracts and initiatives.
Negative Updates
Refinement of Financial Guidance
The financial guidance was refined to the lower end of the previously provided range, primarily due to the unpredictability of securing government contracts on time.
Delay in MMWR Publication for Chikungunya Vaccine
The lack of MMWR publication has slowed the uptake of the chikungunya vaccine in the U.S. market, impacting potential sales and distribution.
Company Guidance
During the Bavarian Nordic conference call discussing the fiscal year 2025 third-quarter results, key financial metrics were highlighted. The company achieved close to DKK 4.8 billion in total revenues for the first nine months, marking a 32% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth was attributed to strong performances across both Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 31%. The Travel Health business saw a 23% increase in sales, driven by robust growth in rabies and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) vaccines, along with the successful launch of the chikungunya vaccine, Vimkunya. Meanwhile, the Public Preparedness segment recorded DKK 3.1 billion in secured contracts, surpassing the normal annual base business. The company's guidance was refined but remained within the initial range, with expectations of achieving DKK 6 billion in total revenue by year-end. The CEO, Paul Chaplin, emphasized that the refinement was not a lowering of guidance but a reflection of the secured business, with Travel Health expected to contribute DKK 2.75 billion. The call also highlighted the company's strategic focus on turning around acquired assets and the ongoing transformation into a profitable vaccine company.Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Bavarian Nordic demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profit growth, supported by a robust balance sheet with low leverage. However, cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation, need to be addressed to sustain growth.Income Statement
Bavarian Nordic shows strong revenue growth with a 6.69% increase in TTM, and robust profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 53.10% and a net profit margin of 22.04%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 22.69% and 32.79%, respectively. The company has successfully turned around from previous losses, indicating a positive trajectory in its financial performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity is strong at 12.45%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a healthy capital structure. However, the company should maintain vigilance on asset management to ensure continued stability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is strong, covering net income with a ratio of 1.07. However, the free cash flow has declined significantly, with a negative growth rate of -395.96%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating potential cash management challenges. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support long-term investments.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.89B | 5.72B | 7.06B | 3.15B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Gross Profit | 3.74B | 2.82B | 4.53B | 1.70B | 570.32M | 657.29M |
| EBITDA | 3.21B | 1.67B | 2.05B | 84.28M | 35.80M | 657.91M |
| Net Income | 2.44B | 987.98M | 1.48B | -347.38M | -464.77M | 277.52M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.16B | 14.41B | 14.35B | 12.39B | 12.09B | 8.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.98B | 2.18B | 1.87B | 2.85B | 3.72B | 1.67B |
| Total Debt | 134.04M | 128.25M | 145.30M | 1.76B | 1.13B | 470.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.00B | 3.00B | 4.01B | 5.24B | 4.71B | 3.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.16B | 11.41B | 10.34B | 7.15B | 7.37B | 4.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.28B | 262.19M | 141.80M | -1.16B | -1.42B | -134.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.13B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 220.05M | -358.50M | 571.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.90B | -1.87B | -945.56M | -877.40M | -2.88B | -1.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -120.96M | 55.77M | 735.83M | 635.82M | 3.54B | 1.33B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Positive
10.36
Price Trends
9.92
Positive
11.02
Negative
10.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
61.58
Neutral
42.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.21, above the 50-day MA of 9.92, and above the 200-day MA of 10.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BVNRY.
Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $2.43B | 6.69 | 20.01% | ― | 15.28% | 123.92% | |
59 Neutral | $3.21B | -10.87 | -45.14% | ― | ― | -38.30% | |
56 Neutral | $5.27B | -9.25 | -95.93% | ― | ― | -27.70% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $2.59B | 74.10 | 14.10% | ― | 42.11% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $5.38B | -20.23 | -32.09% | ― | -50.05% | -54.47% | |
46 Neutral | $2.18B | -3.94 | -325.76% | ― | 20.63% | 8.09% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BVNRY
Bavarian Nordic
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1.33
14.57%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.