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Bavarian Nordic A/S (BVNRY)
OTHER OTC:BVNRY
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Bavarian Nordic
(OTC:BVNRY)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(15.32%Upside)
Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-6.88%
EPS Growth30.37%
CountryUS
Employees1,645
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength37
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding236,566,940
10 Day Avg. Volume11,083
30 Day Avg. Volume3,757
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-15.25
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.50Price Target Upside-13.51% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering0
Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers. It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service. The company operates in the United States, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyBavarian Nordic generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments, health organizations, and the private sector. A significant portion of its income comes from contracts with government entities, such as the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), for the supply of vaccines like JYNNEOS for smallpox and monkeypox. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to co-develop and commercialize its products, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Bavarian Nordic invests in research and development to expand its product pipeline, aiming to capture future market opportunities in both infectious diseases and oncology.
Bavarian Nordic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 55.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Bavarian Nordic's earnings call highlights strong revenue growth and a solid start to the year, driven by impressive performances in travel health and a new U.S. government contract. The successful launch of the Chikungunya vaccine further supports positive prospects. However, there are minor concerns regarding the public preparedness revenue shortfall and potential currency exchange risks. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the negatives.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Bavarian Nordic recorded almost DKK1.4 billion in revenue, representing a 62% growth compared to the previous year.
EBITDA Margin Achievement
The company established an EBITDA margin of 31%, indicating a strong start to the year.
Travel Health Sales Surge
Travel health segment showed a 52% growth, driven by rabies and TBE vaccines, with rabies growing by 53% and TBE by 62%.
Chikungunya Vaccine Launch
Bavarian Nordic launched its Chikungunya vaccine, VIMKUNYA, which has been approved in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., with initial sales recorded.
New Order from U.S. Government
A new order from the U.S. government (BARDA) for $144 million was secured, increasing existing contracts from DKK2.5 billion to DKK2.65 billion.
Gross Margin Improvement
Achieved a gross margin of 51%, two percentage points better than last year's full-year performance.
Future Growth in Travel Health
The travel health market is expected to grow at a 20% CAGR, with Bavarian Nordic well-positioned due to expanding endemic regions and new vaccine introductions.
Negative Updates
Public Preparedness Revenue Shortfall
Current secured orders in public preparedness are slightly short of the bottom end of the guidance for the year.
Dependency on U.S. Dollar
The company faces potential currency exchange risks as the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Euro and Danish Krone, though hedges are in place.
Company Guidance
During the Bavarian Nordic Q1 2025 earnings call, the company reported a robust start to the fiscal year with almost DKK 1.4 billion in revenue, marking a 62% growth compared to the previous year. The EBITDA margin was strong at 31%. Key contributors to this performance included a solid manufacturing output that enabled the advancement of some public preparedness orders, and a new $144 million order from the U.S. government, boosting revenue for 2026. In the travel health sector, the company experienced significant growth in rabies and TBE vaccine sales, with market share gains in key areas like the U.S. and Germany. Additionally, the launch of the Chikungunya vaccine, VIMKUNYA, in the U.S., Europe, and U.K. contributed to the positive results. Bavarian Nordic maintains a full-year revenue guidance of DKK 5.7 to 6.7 billion and an EBITDA margin of 26% to 30%, despite currency fluctuations and other uncertainties.Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Bavarian Nordic demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and high equity. However, negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures is a concern.Income Statement
The income statement of Bavarian Nordic reveals a strong financial performance over the TTM period. The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth with a 9% increase compared to the previous year. Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.9%, indicating efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is robust at 21.2%, reflecting solid profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some decline over the recent year, which could indicate rising operational expenses.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
Bavarian Nordic's balance sheet is stable, with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.01, showcasing prudent financial leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong at 85.3%, indicating a solid equity base. Return on Equity is healthy at 11.4%, reflecting effective management of equity capital. The company's liquidity position is strong, with significant cash reserves and low net debt.80
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement depicts a mixed scenario. Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash conversion from profits. However, the Free Cash Flow has turned negative in the TTM, primarily due to high capital expenditures. This could pose a risk if the trend continues, despite positive operating cash flow.65
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.72B | 7.06B | 3.15B | 1.90B | 1.85B |
| Gross Profit | 2.82B | 4.53B | 1.70B | 570.32M | 657.29M |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 2.05B | 84.28M | 35.80M | 657.91M |
| Net Income | 987.98M | 1.48B | -347.38M | -464.77M | 277.52M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.41B | 14.35B | 12.39B | 12.09B | 8.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.18B | 1.87B | 2.85B | 3.72B | 1.67B |
| Total Debt | 128.25M | 145.30M | 1.76B | 1.13B | 470.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.00B | 4.01B | 5.24B | 4.71B | 3.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.41B | 10.34B | 7.15B | 7.37B | 4.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 262.19M | 141.80M | -1.16B | -1.42B | -134.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.95B | 1.12B | 220.05M | -358.50M | 571.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -945.56M | -877.40M | -2.88B | -1.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 55.77M | 735.83M | 635.82M | 3.54B | 1.33B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Positive
12.14
Price Trends
9.50
Positive
8.64
Positive
8.88
Positive
Market Momentum
0.85
Negative
82.52
Negative
91.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.25, above the 50-day MA of 9.50, and above the 200-day MA of 8.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BVNRY.
Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.04B | 13.53 | 24.71% | ― | 20.62% | 14.08% | |
77 Outperform | $2.86B | 15.04 | 12.02% | ― | -6.88% | 30.37% | |
60 Neutral | $2.56B | ― | -31.51% | ― | ― | ― | |
56 Neutral | $2.17B | 21.22 | -10.10% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $2.57B | ― | -86.10% | ― | 29.32% | -11.00% | |
46 Neutral | C$198.38M | -2.33 | -23.14% | 2.83% | 20.73% | -1.08% | |
45 Neutral | $1.98B | ― | -35.21% | ― | -100.00% | -144.79% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BVNRY
Bavarian Nordic
12.14
3.21
35.95%
GLPG
Galapagos
32.82
7.30
28.61%
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics
13.83
-8.04
-36.76%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
35.18
2.78
8.58%
NAMS
NewAmsterdam Pharma Company
21.81
4.79
28.14%
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
5.95
-1.07
-15.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.