Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 793.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 15.28%
• EPS Growth: 123.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,645
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 237,712,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 793
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 56.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.12
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(6.17% Upside)

Bavarian Nordic's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by bearish technical indicators and cash flow challenges. The company's valuation is reasonable, but the lack of dividend yield and technical weaknesses weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The strong revenue growth indicates successful market expansion and product adoption, particularly in Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments.

Product Launch Success

Successful product launches like Vimkunya demonstrate Bavarian Nordic's ability to innovate and capture new market opportunities, supporting long-term growth.

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, enabling the company to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow indicates potential cash management issues, which could constrain future investments and operational flexibility.

Financial Guidance Refinement

Refining financial guidance suggests uncertainties in revenue predictability, potentially affecting investor confidence and future planning.

U.S. Market Challenges

Delays in U.S. market uptake for key products like the chikungunya vaccine may hinder revenue growth and market penetration efforts.

Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers. It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service. The company operates in the United States, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, the United Kingdom, Japan, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

How the Company Makes Money

Bavarian Nordic generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccine products, including the smallpox vaccine and other vaccines in its pipeline. The company also earns revenue through collaborations and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve upfront payments, milestone payments based on the successful progression of products through clinical trials, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Additionally, Bavarian Nordic may receive funding and grants from government agencies and non-profit organizations for vaccine development, particularly for infectious diseases of public health concern, such as Ebola and COVID-19. The strategic focus on developing novel immunotherapies further enhances its revenue potential through expanding its product offerings and addressing unmet medical needs.

Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bavarian Nordic shows strong profitability with impressive margins and revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and strong equity. However, cash flow management needs attention due to negative free cash flow, which could affect future investments and growth.

Income Statement

Bavarian Nordic exhibits strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.6% and a solid gross profit margin of 51.9%. The net profit margin has improved to 21.2%, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 22.1% and 32.3% respectively, showcasing efficient operational management. However, the revenue growth rate has fluctuated in previous years, which could pose a risk if not stabilized.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 11.99%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 86.7%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the historical debt levels were higher, which could have impacted past financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, but the free cash flow has turned negative, with a significant decline of 52.9% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, indicating reasonable cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.82 highlights potential cash management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.46B	5.72B	7.06B	3.15B	1.90B	1.85B
Gross Profit	3.43B	2.82B	4.53B	1.70B	570.32M	657.29M
EBITDA	2.12B	1.67B	2.05B	84.28M	35.80M	657.91M
Net Income	1.42B	987.98M	1.48B	-347.38M	-464.77M	277.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.91B	14.41B	14.35B	12.39B	12.09B	8.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.66B	2.18B	1.87B	2.85B	3.72B	1.67B
Total Debt	136.05M	128.25M	145.30M	1.76B	1.13B	470.06M
Total Liabilities	1.86B	3.00B	4.01B	5.24B	4.71B	3.86B
Stockholders Equity	12.05B	11.41B	10.34B	7.15B	7.37B	4.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-433.69M	262.19M	141.80M	-1.16B	-1.42B	-134.80M
Operating Cash Flow	1.77B	1.95B	1.12B	220.05M	-358.50M	571.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.26B	-1.87B	-945.56M	-877.40M	-2.88B	-1.91B
Financing Cash Flow	-79.82M	55.77M	735.83M	635.82M	3.54B	1.33B

Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.76, below the 50-day MA of 11.21, and below the 200-day MA of 9.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BVNRY.

Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BVNRY	69 Neutral	$2.26B	6.08	20.01%	―	15.28%	123.92%
RARE	55 Neutral	$3.22B	―	-325.76%	―	20.63%	8.09%
KYMR	54 Neutral	$4.62B	―	-32.09%	―	-50.05%	-54.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
APLS	50 Neutral	$2.61B	69.59	14.10%	―	42.11%	―
XENE	48 Neutral	$3.31B	―	-45.14%	―	―	-38.30%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$3.99B	―	-95.93%	―	―	-27.70%

Bavarian Nordic Corporate Events

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong Revenue Growth in 2025

Bavarian Nordic A/S is a global vaccine company specializing in the development and production of vaccines for infectious diseases, with a strong focus on travel health and public preparedness sectors.

New Phase 2b Trial by Icon Plc and Bavarian Nordic: A Closer Look at MVA-BN Vaccine Developments

Icon Plc and Bavarian Nordic A/S have announced a new clinical study titled ‘A Randomized, Double-blind, Phase 2b Comparability Trial in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age to Assess Immunogenicity, Safety, and Reactogenicity of the MVA-BN Vaccine Manufactured in Different Production Cells.’ This study aims to evaluate the immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of the MVA-BN vaccine produced in two different cell lines, targeting the prevention of monkeypox (Mpox).

Bavarian Nordic’s CHIKV VLP Vaccine Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Pediatric Immunization

Study Overview: Bavarian Nordic A/S is conducting a Phase 3 clinical trial titled A Phase 3 Global, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Safety and Immunogenicity Study of CHIKV VLP Vaccine in Children 2 to <12 Years of Age. The study aims to assess the safety and immune response of the CHIKV VLP vaccine in young children, addressing a significant public health need by targeting the chikungunya virus.

Bavarian Nordic’s MVA-BN Vaccine Study: A Potential Game-Changer in Orthopoxvirus Prevention

Study Overview: Bavarian Nordic A/S is conducting an open-label, multicenter study titled ‘Open-label, Multicenter Immunogenicity and Safety Study of MVA-BN Vaccine in Children from 2 Years to Less Than 12 Years of Age Compared to Adults for the Prevention of Smallpox, Mpox, and Related Orthopoxvirus Infections.’ The study aims to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of the MVA-BN vaccine in children compared to adults, which is significant for expanding preventive measures against smallpox, mpox, and related infections.

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong Earnings and Growth

Bavarian Nordic’s recent earnings call revealed a generally positive sentiment, driven by strong revenue growth and successful vaccine sales. The company highlighted significant achievements in the Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments, which were instrumental in their financial success. Despite some challenges, such as declines in certain vaccine sales and concerns over Chikungunya outbreaks, the positive aspects notably outweighed the negatives, painting an optimistic picture for the company’s future.

Bavarian Nordic Reports Strong H1 2025 Results

Bavarian Nordic A/S is a global vaccine company specializing in innovative vaccines for travel health and public preparedness, with a strong portfolio in mpox and smallpox vaccines. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 33% increase in revenue to DKK 2,998 million, driven by significant growth in its Travel Health and Public Preparedness segments. The Travel Health segment saw a 24% revenue increase primarily due to rabies and tick-borne encephalitis vaccines, while Public Preparedness revenue surged by 51% due to strategic order phasing. The company’s EBITDA reached DKK 961 million, with a margin of 32%. Bavarian Nordic has refined its full-year revenue guidance to DKK 6,000-6,600 million, with an expected EBITDA margin of 40-42% including special items. Looking forward, Bavarian Nordic remains optimistic about its growth strategy, focusing on expanding its commercial footprint and securing additional contracts in its Public Preparedness business.