First Busey (BUSE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.17B
• Dividend Yield: 4.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 527.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 41.45%
• EPS Growth: -41.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,965
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 86,227,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 461,106
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 527,180
• PEG Ratio: -0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.26
• 1Y Price Target: $28.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $809.53M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(15.49% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (good revenue momentum, strong cash conversion, and improving leverage), partially offset by declining profitability (lower net margins and ROE). Valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield, while technical signals are neutral-to-mildly positive and corporate updates are supportive but include a near-term one-time expense from leadership transition.

Positive Factors

Conservative, improving leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio indicates a safer, de-risked balance sheet that enhances capital flexibility. Over the next several months this improves resilience to credit or rate shocks, supports regulatory ratios and creates optionality for targeted lending or shareholder returns without levering the franchise.

Strong cash generation and conversion

Robust operating and free cash flow that closely matches reported earnings signals high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment, reducing reliance on external funding and underpinning long-term capital allocation choices.

Diversifying fee income via wealth management growth

Growing wealth-management fees and rising assets under care provide a durable non-interest revenue stream that cushions NII volatility. Over months this structural diversification improves revenue stability, supports margins relative to pure lending peers, and helps fund relationship banking investments.

Negative Factors

Material margin compression

A steep multi-year decline in net margin reflects either rising costs, margin pressure from funding/asset mix, or credit impacts. Persisting margin compression would erode incremental profits from revenue growth, constrain reinvestment and dividends, and hamper the bank's ability to restore historical return levels over the medium term.

Falling return on equity

ROE deterioration indicates weaker earnings power relative to the capital base and signals inefficiency in capital deployment. If ROE remains depressed, the bank may need to shift strategy, reduce capital returns or accept slower growth, all of which materially affect long-term shareholder value creation.

Leadership change and one-time severance cost

A senior leadership departure with sizable severance raises governance and execution risks and uses capital that could have funded strategic initiatives. Even as continuity steps were taken, leadership turnover can slow integration, influence retention and strategic clarity over the coming quarters.

First Busey Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, FirsTech, and Wealth Management. It offers customary types of demand and savings deposits; and commercial, agricultural, real estate construction, commercial and residential real estate, and consumer loans, as well as home equity lines of credit. The company also provides money transfer, safe deposit, IRA, and other fiduciary services through banking center, ATM and technology-based networks. In addition, it offers investment management, trust, estate advisory, and financial planning services, as well as business succession and employee retirement planning services; investment strategy consulting and fiduciary services; and security brokerage services. Further, the company provides asset management, philanthropic advisory, tax preparation, and professional farm management services; and commercial depository services, such as cash management services. Additionally, it offers payment technology solutions through its payment platform, such as walk-in payment processing for customers at retail pay agents; online bill payment solutions; customer service payments accepted over the telephone; mobile bill pay; direct debit services; electronic concentration of payments delivered to automated clearing house network; money management and credit card networks; and lockbox remittance processing to make payments by mail, as well as provides tools related to billing, reconciliation, bill reminders, and treasury services. The company has 46 banking centers in Illinois; 8 in Missouri; 3 in southwest Florida; and 1 in Indianapolis, Indiana. First Busey Corporation was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

First Busey generates revenue through various channels primarily focused on interest income and non-interest income. The largest portion of its revenue comes from net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, residential mortgages, and investment securities. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, wealth management fees, mortgage origination fees, and other banking services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its earning potential by expanding its customer base and service offerings.

First Busey Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: revenue growth stepped up in 2025 and cash generation/earnings quality are strong (free cash flow roughly matches net income). Balance sheet leverage is conservative and improving, but profitability has weakened with notable net margin and ROE compression, which tempers the quality of recent growth.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been solid over time, with a step-up in 2025 (12.0% growth) on top of prior gains. Profitability remains healthy, but margins have clearly compressed versus earlier years (net margin down to ~13.0% in 2025 from ~17.2% in 2024 and ~20.4% in 2023), suggesting higher costs and/or a less favorable rate/credit environment. Net income is still growing in dollars, but the recent margin pressure tempers the quality of that growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative and improving: debt-to-equity fell to ~0.19 in 2025 from ~0.34 in 2024 and ~0.41 in 2023 (and well below 2022 levels). The main offset is profitability on equity: return on equity has trended down to ~5.5% in 2025 from ~8.2% in 2024 and ~9.6% in 2023, indicating weaker earnings power relative to the capital base. Overall, the balance sheet appears safer, but returns have softened.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a strength: operating cash flow rose to $192.6M in 2025 from $178.3M in 2024, and free cash flow grew strongly in 2025 (+22.5%). Cash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (about 1.0x) and near that level in prior years, supporting earnings quality. A notable watch item is that cash flow is small relative to total assets (low operating cash flow relative to the balance sheet size), which is common in banking but still limits flexibility versus non-financials.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.04B	662.51M	600.59M	486.60M	431.60M
Gross Profit	666.84M	452.86M	438.27M	445.43M	418.60M
EBITDA	204.71M	173.86M	176.61M	187.39M	185.00M
Net Income	135.26M	113.69M	122.56M	128.31M	123.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.10B	12.05B	12.28B	12.34B	12.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	181.04M	1.93B	2.81B	2.69B	4.82B
Total Debt	490.06M	469.19M	523.58M	917.70M	638.82M
Total Liabilities	15.64B	10.66B	11.01B	11.19B	11.54B
Stockholders Equity	2.47B	1.38B	1.27B	1.15B	1.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.76M	171.84M	163.86M	160.80M	156.97M
Operating Cash Flow	192.57M	178.27M	173.39M	165.79M	162.01M
Investing Cash Flow	1.10B	657.90M	550.99M	-290.86M	-829.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-858.09M	-231.96M	-483.86M	814.74M

First Busey Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 25.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BUSE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.54, below the 50-day MA of 25.24, and above the 200-day MA of 23.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BUSE.

First Busey Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BUSE	72 Outperform	$2.17B	15.68	5.33%	4.11%	41.45%	-41.16%
OFG	71 Outperform	$1.69B	9.31	15.21%	2.73%	3.98%	6.75%
NBTB	68 Neutral	$2.16B	11.56	9.51%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EFSC	66 Neutral	$1.95B	9.91	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
TRMK	66 Neutral	$2.44B	10.48	10.98%	2.38%	17.95%	―

First Busey Corporate Events

First Busey Declares Quarterly Dividend on Series B Preferred

On February 3, 2026, First Busey Corporation, a regional financial services and banking company, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. The dividend, payable on March 2, 2026, to stockholders of record as of February 13, 2026, underscores the company’s continued commitment to returning capital to preferred shareholders and signals stability in its capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey announces leadership changes and earnings update

On January 27, 2026, First Busey Corporation announced a leadership shake-up and detailed fourth-quarter 2025 results, marking the culmination of its CrossFirst integration and a year of improved profitability. The company confirmed the departure of Michael J. Maddox, former President and Vice Chairman of First Busey and President and CEO of Busey Bank, effective that day, under a separation agreement that includes more than $8.5 million in cash severance and retention-related payments, full vesting of unvested equity awards, and ongoing post-employment non-compete and related covenants; the package will generate a non-recurring pre-tax expense of about $9 million in the first quarter of 2026. The board reappointed CEO Van A. Dukeman as President of First Busey and CEO of Busey Bank and elevated T. Anthony Hammond to President of Busey Bank, reinforcing continuity in the wake of the leadership transition. For the fourth quarter of 2025, First Busey reported net income of $60.8 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, up from $28.1 million a year earlier, with adjusted metrics showing stronger returns on assets and tangible common equity and net interest margin expansion driven by tight deposit cost control; wealth management delivered record fee income as assets under care rose to $15.66 billion, capital ratios and tangible book value improved despite substantial share repurchases, and full-year 2025 net income reached $135.3 million, positioning the bank as well capitalized heading into 2026 even as it intentionally ran off high-cost, non-relationship funding and absorbed an operating loss tied to a single relationship.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey raises quarterly dividend, signaling confidence

On January 13, 2026, First Busey Corporation, a financial institution, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share on its outstanding common stock, reflecting a 4% increase from the prior $0.25 dividend. The higher dividend, payable on January 30, 2026 to stockholders of record as of January 23, 2026, signals the company’s willingness to return more capital to shareholders and may indicate confidence in the stability of its earnings and balance sheet, with implications for investor income and the company’s positioning as an income-oriented stock within the financial sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey Expands Share Repurchase Program

On December 4, 2025, First Busey Corporation’s board of directors approved an amendment to its share repurchase program, increasing the number of shares available for repurchase by 4,000,000. This amendment allows Busey to repurchase up to 5,454,275 shares of its common stock at its discretion, with no obligation to repurchase a specific amount or number of shares, and the program has no expiration date.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.