First Busey (BUSE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.18B
• Dividend Yield: 4.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 527.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 41.45%
• EPS Growth: -41.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,965
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 88,409,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 461,106
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 527,180
• PEG Ratio: -1.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.41
• 1Y Price Target: $28.00
• Price Target Upside: 10.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(6.13% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by stable financial health (strong revenue growth, improved leverage, and strong free-cash-flow conversion) tempered by weaker profitability metrics (declining margins and low ROE). Technicals are supportive with the stock above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is balanced—an attractive dividend yield offset by a higher P/E. Corporate events add modest support (dividend raise and strong results) but leadership transition costs/risk cap upside.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, very strong revenue growth nearly doubled TTM demonstrates expanding core franchise and benefits from the CrossFirst integration. Higher top-line scale can support diversified fee streams, improve fixed-cost absorption, and provide durable earnings flexibility across economic cycles.

Free Cash Flow Conversion

High FCF-to-net-income conversion indicates robust cash generation quality and strong ability to fund dividends, buybacks, and organic growth without relying heavily on external financing. This cash conversion supports long-term capital return and investment optionality.

Improved Leverage & Capital

Low and improving leverage signals a stronger equity base and reduced financial risk, enhancing resilience in stress scenarios. Combined with reported CET1 and tangible common equity gains, this supports regulatory buffers and sustained capacity for lending, M&A, or shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Low Return on Equity

Sub-5% ROE indicates the bank is generating limited profit per unit of shareholder capital despite revenue growth. Persistently low ROE can constrain long-term shareholder returns and suggests the company must improve margins or capital deployment to justify capital-intensive banking economics.

Margin Pressure & Operating Cash Flow

Falling gross and net margin trends combined with weak operating cash flow conversion point to potential earnings quality issues. If operating cash generation remains short of accounting income, sustaining dividends and buybacks may rely more on non-recurring items or balance-sheet moves, raising medium-term risk.

Leadership Transition Risk & Costs

A sizable separation package and leadership reshuffle creates execution risk during integration and strategic execution. Beyond the one-time charge, management turnover can disrupt client relationships, retention incentives, and drive additional compensation or governance costs that affect near-term capital allocation.

First Busey Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Busey Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Busey Bank that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individual, corporate, institutional, and governmental customers in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Banking, FirsTech, and Wealth Management. It offers customary types of demand and savings deposits; and commercial, agricultural, real estate construction, commercial and residential real estate, and consumer loans, as well as home equity lines of credit. The company also provides money transfer, safe deposit, IRA, and other fiduciary services through banking center, ATM and technology-based networks. In addition, it offers investment management, trust, estate advisory, and financial planning services, as well as business succession and employee retirement planning services; investment strategy consulting and fiduciary services; and security brokerage services. Further, the company provides asset management, philanthropic advisory, tax preparation, and professional farm management services; and commercial depository services, such as cash management services. Additionally, it offers payment technology solutions through its payment platform, such as walk-in payment processing for customers at retail pay agents; online bill payment solutions; customer service payments accepted over the telephone; mobile bill pay; direct debit services; electronic concentration of payments delivered to automated clearing house network; money management and credit card networks; and lockbox remittance processing to make payments by mail, as well as provides tools related to billing, reconciliation, bill reminders, and treasury services. The company has 46 banking centers in Illinois; 8 in Missouri; 3 in southwest Florida; and 1 in Indianapolis, Indiana. First Busey Corporation was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

First Busey generates revenue through various channels primarily focused on interest income and non-interest income. The largest portion of its revenue comes from net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, residential mortgages, and investment securities. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, wealth management fees, mortgage origination fees, and other banking services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its earning potential by expanding its customer base and service offerings.

First Busey Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals: very strong TTM revenue growth and improved leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) support stability, while healthy cash conversion (FCF to net income 95.34%) helps quality. Offsetting this, profitability is softening (declining margins and ROE at 4.87%) and operating cash flow conversion is flagged as weak.

Income Statement

First Busey shows a strong revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 97.6%, indicating robust expansion. However, the gross profit margin has significantly decreased in the TTM period compared to previous years, which could impact profitability. The net profit margin remains healthy at 12.45%, though it has declined from previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.17 in the TTM period, indicating a stronger equity position and reduced leverage risk. Return on equity has decreased to 4.87%, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is solid, reflecting a stable financial structure with a strong asset base.

Cash Flow

First Busey demonstrates a positive free cash flow growth rate of 5.15% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 95.34%, showing effective conversion of income into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential issues with cash flow generation from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	931.74M	662.51M	600.59M	486.60M	431.60M	444.86M
Gross Profit	586.85M	452.86M	438.27M	445.43M	418.60M	362.40M
EBITDA	173.64M	173.86M	176.61M	187.39M	185.00M	156.15M
Net Income	102.62M	113.69M	122.56M	128.31M	123.45M	100.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.19B	12.05B	12.28B	12.34B	12.86B	10.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	430.03M	1.93B	2.81B	2.69B	4.82B	2.95B
Total Debt	451.71M	469.19M	523.58M	917.70M	638.82M	486.29M
Total Liabilities	15.74B	10.66B	11.01B	11.19B	11.54B	9.27B
Stockholders Equity	2.45B	1.38B	1.27B	1.15B	1.32B	1.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.26M	171.84M	163.86M	160.80M	156.97M	158.98M
Operating Cash Flow	172.69M	178.27M	173.39M	165.79M	162.01M	163.17M
Investing Cash Flow	1.12B	657.90M	550.99M	-290.86M	-829.19M	-729.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.46B	-858.09M	-231.96M	-483.86M	814.74M	725.61M

First Busey Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BUSE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.40, above the 50-day MA of 24.12, and above the 200-day MA of 22.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BUSE.

First Busey Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBTB	77 Outperform	$2.32B	13.34	8.87%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
OFG	73 Outperform	$1.77B	8.80	14.82%	2.73%	3.98%	6.75%
TRMK	73 Outperform	$2.55B	11.49	10.98%	2.38%	17.95%	―
EFSC	70 Outperform	$2.12B	10.80	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
BUSE	68 Neutral	$2.18B	16.77	5.33%	4.11%	41.45%	-41.16%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

First Busey Corporate Events

First Busey announces leadership changes and earnings update

On January 27, 2026, First Busey Corporation announced a leadership shake-up and detailed fourth-quarter 2025 results, marking the culmination of its CrossFirst integration and a year of improved profitability. The company confirmed the departure of Michael J. Maddox, former President and Vice Chairman of First Busey and President and CEO of Busey Bank, effective that day, under a separation agreement that includes more than $8.5 million in cash severance and retention-related payments, full vesting of unvested equity awards, and ongoing post-employment non-compete and related covenants; the package will generate a non-recurring pre-tax expense of about $9 million in the first quarter of 2026. The board reappointed CEO Van A. Dukeman as President of First Busey and CEO of Busey Bank and elevated T. Anthony Hammond to President of Busey Bank, reinforcing continuity in the wake of the leadership transition. For the fourth quarter of 2025, First Busey reported net income of $60.8 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, up from $28.1 million a year earlier, with adjusted metrics showing stronger returns on assets and tangible common equity and net interest margin expansion driven by tight deposit cost control; wealth management delivered record fee income as assets under care rose to $15.66 billion, capital ratios and tangible book value improved despite substantial share repurchases, and full-year 2025 net income reached $135.3 million, positioning the bank as well capitalized heading into 2026 even as it intentionally ran off high-cost, non-relationship funding and absorbed an operating loss tied to a single relationship.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey raises quarterly dividend, signaling confidence

On January 13, 2026, First Busey Corporation, a financial institution, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share on its outstanding common stock, reflecting a 4% increase from the prior $0.25 dividend. The higher dividend, payable on January 30, 2026 to stockholders of record as of January 23, 2026, signals the company’s willingness to return more capital to shareholders and may indicate confidence in the stability of its earnings and balance sheet, with implications for investor income and the company’s positioning as an income-oriented stock within the financial sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey Expands Share Repurchase Program

On December 4, 2025, First Busey Corporation’s board of directors approved an amendment to its share repurchase program, increasing the number of shares available for repurchase by 4,000,000. This amendment allows Busey to repurchase up to 5,454,275 shares of its common stock at its discretion, with no obligation to repurchase a specific amount or number of shares, and the program has no expiration date.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey Announces Quarterly Dividend for Series B Stock

On November 4, 2025, First Busey Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. This dividend will be payable on December 1, 2025, to stockholders of record as of November 14, 2025, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.

First Busey Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 28, 2025, First Busey Corporation announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company reported a net income of $57.1 million, an increase from the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. The adjusted return on average assets improved to 1.33%, and the net interest margin expanded to 3.58%. The company optimized its balance sheet by reducing high-cost deposits, leading to a decrease in deposit costs and an increase in capital strength. As a result, First Busey expects stability in loans and deposits as it continues its organic growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUSE) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Busey stock, see the BUSE Stock Forecast page.