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Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A
(NASDAQ:BRCB)
Select Model
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(1.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative EBITDA in 2025, high leverage, and volatile cash flows) and a weak longer-term technical trend. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings call with raised growth guidance and improving operating metrics, though valuation remains stretched given the very high P/E.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Unit Growth
Revenue grew 36.6% in FY2025 and 25% in Q2 2026, while the system reached 200 stores after 10 openings. Continued unit additions and a committed development pipeline can expand the revenue base and strengthen market presence.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses and Weak Profitability
Rapid top-line growth has not yet translated into durable consolidated profitability. Persistent net losses and negative EBITDA indicate scaling and cost pressures remain unresolved, increasing dependence on successful execution and future margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Unit Growth
Revenue grew 36.6% in FY2025 and 25% in Q2 2026, while the system reached 200 stores after 10 openings. Continued unit additions and a committed development pipeline can expand the revenue base and strengthen market presence.
Read all positive factors
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A (BRCB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$441.14M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)415.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)128.4
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding22,207,657
10 Day Avg. Volume279,789
30 Day Avg. Volume415,410
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio66.34
Price to Book (P/B)8.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio-11.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside14.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$254.30M
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of caffeinated beverages. It offers roasted coffees, teas, smoothies, and flavorful energy drinks. The company was founded by Daniel Brand, Jeff Hernandez, Jake Spell...
How the Company Makes Money
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Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: robust revenue (+25% YoY), expanding store-level margins (+70 bps), raised unit guidance and an uplift in digital and loyalty metrics. Management was transparent about near-term headwinds — notably a Q2 transactions decline, incremental public-company SG&A and higher store operating costs — and emphasized these are being managed and are expected to leverage over time. Given the breadth and magnitude of growth metrics, margin expansion at the store level, raised guidance, and evident execution on development and loyalty initiatives, the highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $63.0M in Q2 2026, up 25% year-over-year. Company reaffirmed and guided full-year revenue to $255M–$257M, ~27% growth year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Transaction Decline in Q2
Transactions declined 2% in Q2 2026 (driven largely by loyalty transition and prior-year laps). Management noted improvement in July with transactions turning positive to +1.7%, but Q2 transaction weakness was a headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $63.0M in Q2 2026, up 25% year-over-year. Company reaffirmed and guided full-year revenue to $255M–$257M, ~27% growth year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year openings to at least 38 (from 36) and guided total revenue of $255–257 million (~27% YoY), mid‑single‑digit same‑store sales, adjusted EBITDA of $34–35 million (up ~24%–27% YoY) with H2 adjusted EBITDA growth of 28%–35% versus last year; capital expenditures are expected to be $42–43 million including $15–16 million of tenant‑improvement allowances (or $57–59 million excluding TI), with about $13–14 million (≈30% of capex) directed to the 2027 pipeline, and management reiterated long‑term targets of ~20% annual unit growth, 20%+ revenue growth, mid‑single‑digit comps, adjusted EBITDA growth outpacing revenue, and a 1,000‑store objective by 2035.Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 223.56M | 200.32M | 160.92M | 133.16M |
| Gross Profit | 71.81M | 58.73M | 79.29M | 61.00M |
| EBITDA | 9.23M | 5.92M | 1.96M | 11.67M |
| Net Income | 1.54M | -60.00K | -3.74M | -8.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 392.37M | 336.44M | 212.91M | 177.18M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.97M | 28.41M | 10.23M | 17.20M |
| Total Debt | 161.66M | 164.05M | 205.60M | 162.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 282.84M | 231.73M | 229.57M | 179.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.63M | 45.67M | -16.66M | -3.15M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.07M | -33.13M | -9.62M | -11.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.96M | 2.19M | 13.30M | 5.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.06M | -35.31M | -22.92M | -15.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 42.44M | 51.30M | 2.64M | 21.56M |
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $25.19B | 20.84 | 56.01% | 3.12% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
70 Outperform | $11.13B | 18.89 | -15.15% | 2.24% | 5.16% | 2.13% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
52 Neutral | $328.93M | 9.54 | -3.65% | ― | -20.21% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $441.14M | 128.38 | 2.48% | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | $20.12M | -6.25 | -18.91% | ― | -9.48% | 77.31% |
* General Sector Average
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A
8.64
-19.17
-68.93%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
5.50
-1.54
-21.88%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
217.95
17.76
8.87%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
334.37
-104.04
-23.73%
JACK
Jack In The Box
16.60
-1.50
-8.29%
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Black Rock Coffee Bar Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
At its May 27, 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. reported that holders of its Class A, Class B and Class C common stock, representing 183,122,474 votes in aggregate as of the April 1, 2026 record date, were present i...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Black Rock Coffee Restructures Voting and Investor Rights
Neutral
May 20, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. executed an irrevocable proxy with several founder-related entities and trusts, granting the company, its CEO or a designee authority to vote all Class A, B and C shares controlled by these parties, wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.