Box (BOX) AI Stock Analysis

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Box

(NYSE:BOX)

78Outperform

Box's overall score reflects strong financial performance and strategic initiatives that are expected to drive future growth. The stable technical outlook and fair valuation further support the company's positive prospects. However, the low equity position and potential overbought technical conditions are risks to monitor. The positive sentiment from the latest earnings call underscores confidence in the company's strategic direction.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

BOX's Enterprise Advance Offering, which includes a comprehensive pool of AI offerings, is expected to drive growth and improve net retention rates.

Market Opportunity

Box is targeting a massive $100+ billion market opportunity by building the leading ICM platform and leveraging Enterprise Advanced to accelerate customer transformation.

Stock Repurchase Program

Box announced a new $150 million stock repurchase program, which may appeal to value investors.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Box reported lackluster 4Q:FY25 results and issued a tepid 1Q:FY26 outlook, indicating potential challenges in financial performance.

Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment seems low, as most investors are focused on topline growth and are not impressed by the free cash flow profile of this mature company.

Macroeconomic Risks

The competition is fierce, the software sector is under pressure, and the macroeconomic environment is fragile, posing potential risks for Box.

Box (BOX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.43B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.71M

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9

Beta (1Y)0.58

Revenue Growth5.05%

EPS Growth103.11%

CountryUS

Employees2,810

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength63

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.34

Shares Outstanding143,789,200

10 Day Avg. Volume1,365,763

30 Day Avg. Volume1,712,904

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.22

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.40

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.29

Price Target Upside13.04% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBox, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage and share their content from anywhere on any device. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to collaborate on content internally and with external parties, automate content-driven business processes, develop custom applications, and implement data protection, security, and compliance features to comply with legal and regulatory requirements, internal policies, and industry standards and regulations. It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications for cloud content management on a platform for developing custom applications, as well as industry-specific capabilities. As of January 31, 2022, the company had approximately 100,000 paying organizations, and its solution was offered in 25 languages. It serves financial services, health care, government, and legal services industries in the United States and internationally. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco Bay Area, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyBox makes money primarily through a subscription-based revenue model. The company offers various pricing tiers, catering to businesses of different sizes and needs, and charges a recurring fee for access to its cloud-based services. Its revenue streams are largely driven by enterprise subscriptions, which offer advanced features and additional storage and security capabilities. Box also generates income from professional services, which include consulting and implementation support to help organizations optimize their use of Box's platform. Significant partnerships with technology providers, such as Microsoft, Google, and IBM, enhance its service offerings and contribute to customer acquisition and retention, further driving revenue growth.

Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Revenue Retention Rate

Net Revenue Retention Rate
Measures how much revenue is retained from existing customers over time, indicating customer satisfaction and the effectiveness of upselling and cross-selling strategies.

Chart InsightsBox's Net Revenue Retention Rate has been on a declining trend since mid-2022, stabilizing around 102% in late 2024. Despite this, the company is focusing on strategic growth through the launch of the Enterprise Advanced plan and AI capabilities, as highlighted in their earnings call. These initiatives, along with strong cash flow and an expanding customer base, suggest potential for reversing the retention rate decline, although foreign exchange impacts and flat operating margin guidance pose challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Box has shown significant improvement in its financial performance across all verticals. The income statement highlights strong growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet reflects a healthier capital structure, albeit with some vulnerability due to low equity. Cash flow analysis indicates effective cash management, supporting the company's growth. Overall, Box is on a positive financial trajectory, but should monitor its equity position closely.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Box demonstrated a strong revenue growth with a 5.04% increase in TTM compared to the previous year, continuing its positive trajectory from past years. The gross profit margin remains robust at 79.08%, indicating efficient cost management. Box's net profit margin significantly improved to 20.06% in TTM, a notable increase from previous years, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also saw improvements, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Box's balance sheet shows improvement with a declining debt-to-equity ratio, now standing at 1.38, indicating reduced reliance on debt. The equity ratio improved to 11.83%, but remains relatively low, suggesting potential vulnerability. Return on Equity (ROE) surged to 110.85%, driven by increased net income, but is partially influenced by low equity levels, which could pose risks.

Cash Flow

Positive

Box reported strong free cash flow growth of 5.89% in TTM, indicating solid cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.52 reflects efficient conversion of net income into cash, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.45 further underscores robust cash flow management. Overall, Box demonstrates healthy cash flow practices.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.09B	1.04B	990.87M	874.33M	770.77M
	Gross Profit
862.02M	777.13M	738.32M	624.85M	546.03M
	EBIT
79.63M	50.75M	36.84M	-27.63M	-35.22M
	EBITDA
79.63M	101.99M	102.83M	50.61M	37.84M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
201.57M	129.03M	26.78M	-41.46M	-43.43M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
722.82M	480.69M	461.25M	586.27M	595.08M
	Total Assets
1.67B	1.24B	1.21B	1.39B	1.35B
	Total Debt
721.32M	491.80M	564.42M	642.33M	648.15M
	Net Debt
96.74M	108.06M	135.96M	226.06M	53.07M
	Total Liabilities
1.47B	1.18B	1.24B	1.30B	1.20B
	Stockholders Equity
197.28M	61.03M	-33.86M	92.79M	151.06M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
329.68M	300.32M	281.49M	224.33M	180.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
332.26M	318.73M	297.98M	234.82M	196.83M
	Investing Cash Flow
-23.21M	-82.79M	120.60M	-239.37M	-16.38M
	Financing Cash Flow
-62.36M	-272.90M	-396.50M	-172.86M	218.68M

Box Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price31.22

Price Trends

50DMA

31.32

Positive

100DMA

31.94

Negative

200DMA

31.54

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.09

Negative

RSI

58.02

Neutral

STOCH

89.89

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.23, below the 50-day MA of 31.32, and below the 200-day MA of 31.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOX.

Box Risk Analysis

Box disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Box reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Box Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOX	78 Outperform	$4.43B	22.95	189.40%	―	5.05%	103.11%
QLYS	74 Outperform	$4.59B	27.13	41.09%	―	10.40%	14.78%
SWI	68 Neutral	$3.20B	28.86	7.87%	―	5.03%	―
S	64 Neutral	$6.09B	―	-17.68%	―	32.25%	20.56%
TENB	63 Neutral	$3.98B	―	-9.73%	―	12.68%	54.80%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$10.71B	10.35	-6.77%	3.02%	7.32%	-11.27%
VRNS	56 Neutral	$4.72B	―	-20.26%	―	10.38%	6.88%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BOX

Box

31.22

4.81

18.21%

QLYS

Qualys

125.71

-39.58

-23.95%

VRNS

Varonis Systems

42.84

-0.60

-1.38%

TENB

Tenable Holdings

30.57

-14.46

-32.11%

SWI

SolarWinds

18.49

7.42

67.03%

SentinelOne

18.50

-2.94

-13.71%

Box Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: -6.72%|

Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance and strategic product launches, such as the Enterprise Advanced plan, which shows potential for future growth. However, challenges including foreign exchange impacts, flat operating margin guidance, and tax expense headwinds were also highlighted. Despite these challenges, the company's strong cash flow, growing customer base, and innovative offerings contribute to an overall positive sentiment.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Q4 Operating Results

Q4 revenue was $280 million, up 6% year over year or 8% in constant currency. Operating margins were 27.3%, and EPS was 42 cents, one cent above guidance.

Successful Launch of Enterprise Advanced

The new Enterprise Advanced plan was launched, with several dozen deals closed in Q4. The plan includes AI-powered document processing and no-code app functionalities.

Record Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $305 million, up 13% year over year.

Increase in Operating Margin

Year-over-year operating margin increased by 320 basis points to 27.9%.

Expanding Customer Base

Approximately 1,920 total customers are paying at least $100,000 annually, up 8% year over year.

Negative Updates

Impact of Foreign Exchange on Revenue

Q4 revenue had an incremental FX headwind of 70 basis points, and Q1 revenue guidance includes a 120 basis point headwind due to the leap year.

Flat Operating Margin Guidance for FY 2026

Fiscal year 2026 operating margin is expected to be approximately 28%, implying flat year-over-year growth due to planned investments.

Tax Expense Headwinds

Non-GAAP EPS is facing a $0.52 headwind from incremental non-cash deferred tax expenses.

Company Guidance

During the Box, Inc. fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and financial guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2026. Box reported a Q4 revenue of $280 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with operating margins of 27.3% and an EPS of $0.42, surpassing their guidance by one cent. For the full fiscal year 2025, Box achieved a revenue growth of 5% year-over-year, reaching $1.09 billion, and expanded operating margins by 320 basis points to 28%. The company also reported a record free cash flow of $305 million, a 13% increase from the previous year. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Box anticipates revenue between $1.155 billion and $1.16 billion, representing a 6% increase, and aims for a gross margin of approximately 81%. The company expects billings growth of 7% and a non-GAAP operating margin of about 28%, despite a 60 basis point impact from previous data center equipment sales. Box is also planning strategic investments to enhance its partner ecosystem and AI capabilities, while maintaining cost discipline to drive future growth and profitability.

Box Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

Box Amends Credit Agreement and Grants Stock Units

Neutral

Dec 20, 2024

Box, Inc. has amended its Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo Bank, reducing its revolving commitments from $150 million to $75 million, which may impact its financial flexibility. Additionally, the company has granted performance-based restricted stock units to CEO Aaron Levie as part of its strategy to incentivize leadership in a rapidly evolving AI-driven market, tying his compensation to the company’s stock performance.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.