Box (BOX) AI Stock Analysis

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Box

(NYSE:BOX)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$29.00

▲(11.11% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26

The score is led by strong cash generation and high gross profitability, supported by a generally positive earnings outlook (FY27 growth guidance, RPO strength, and Enterprise Advanced traction). Offsetting this are a mixed technical picture (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield support.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Consistent, large free cash flow (FCF) generation relative to earnings shows high cash conversion and earnings quality. Durable FCF supports reinvestment in AI/GTM, debt/leveraging flexibility, and capital returns while providing a buffer through macro cycles over the next 2–6 months.

Very High Gross Margins

Sustained ~80%+ gross margins reflect a scalable cloud content platform with low incremental costs and pricing power. High gross margins create durable operating leverage, enabling the company to fund go‑to‑market and AI investments while preserving structural profitability.

Enterprise Advanced Traction & Pricing

Rapid adoption of higher‑priced Enterprise Advanced that delivers 30–40% seat uplifts shows an ability to expand ACV inside the installed base. This structural upsell lever strengthens revenue quality, increases customer stickiness, and supports durable revenue per seat expansion over quarters.

Negative Factors

Slowing Revenue Growth & Margin Volatility

Revenue growth has decelerated materially from mid‑teens to low single digits, while net margins swung sharply year‑over‑year. This combination makes forward revenue and profit predictability harder and raises execution risk as the company balances reinvestment with margin targets over the medium term.

Moderate Billings Growth (Leading Indicator Risk)

Billings growth is a leading signal for future revenue and cash; its moderation to low‑single digits suggests potential softening in booking momentum. If billings remain muted, revenue recognition and cash flow growth could slow in subsequent quarters, constraining durable top‑line improvement.

Material FX Exposure and Japan Concentration

Significant revenue exposure to Japan and near‑term large FX headwinds can materially affect reported revenue, billings and margins. Currency volatility therefore poses a structural forecasting risk and can compress reported growth despite underlying operational progress over the next several quarters.

Box (BOX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.74B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.57M

Price to Earnings (P/E)35.8

Beta (1Y)0.53

Revenue Growth7.21%

EPS Growth58.61%

CountryUS

Employees2,810

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.49

Shares Outstanding143,227,810

10 Day Avg. Volume2,429,162

30 Day Avg. Volume2,573,987

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.63

Price to Book (P/B)18.40

Price to Sales (P/S)3.08

P/FCF Ratio10.35

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.67

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.64

Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.74

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$32.85

Price Target Upside25.86% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

EPS Forecast (FY)1.45

Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.26B

Box Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBox, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage and share their content from anywhere on any device. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to collaborate on content internally and with external parties, automate content-driven business processes, develop custom applications, and implement data protection, security, and compliance features to comply with legal and regulatory requirements, internal policies, and industry standards and regulations. It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications for cloud content management on a platform for developing custom applications, as well as industry-specific capabilities. As of January 31, 2022, the company had approximately 100,000 paying organizations, and its solution was offered in 25 languages. It serves financial services, health care, government, and legal services industries in the United States and internationally. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco Bay Area, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyBox generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, offering tiered pricing plans that cater to businesses of different sizes and needs. The key revenue streams include monthly or annual subscriptions for its cloud storage and collaboration services, which are charged based on the number of users or volume of storage required. Additionally, Box earns revenue from premium features and services, such as enhanced security options and advanced administrative tools. Significant partnerships with other technology companies, such as Microsoft and Google, also contribute to its earnings by integrating Box's services with widely used applications, thereby increasing its user base and driving subscription growth.

Box Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Remaining Performance Obligations

Total Remaining Performance Obligations
Represents future revenue from contracts yet to be fulfilled, providing insight into revenue visibility and the strength of customer commitments.

Chart InsightsBox's remaining performance obligations have shown consistent growth, reaching $1.5 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase. This growth aligns with Box's strategic investments in AI and go-to-market initiatives, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite foreign exchange headwinds and government sector delays, Box's strong revenue growth and improved net retention rate underscore their resilience and market strength. The company's focus on AI-driven product offerings and strategic partnerships is expected to further enhance their competitive position and drive future growth.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Box Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026

(Q4-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Jun 02, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a predominantly positive operational story: accelerating product and AI momentum, clear early traction for Enterprise Advanced (10% of revenue) with significant pricing uplifts, improved forward revenue visibility (RPO), strong margins and record free cash flow. Near-term cautions include modest billings growth, FX headwinds (notably Q1 USD/JPY impact), deliberate FY27 investments that temper margin expansion, and only modest net retention improvement. Overall, the positives — product/AI momentum, topline acceleration, RPO growth, margin/profitability and capital returns — outweigh the near-term execution and macro headwinds.

Q4-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Q4 and FY26 Revenue with EPS Beat

Q4 revenue of $306M, up 9% year-over-year (8% in constant currency). FY26 revenue of $1.18B, up 8% year-over-year (7% constant currency). Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.49, above guidance ($0.33) and above company expectations.

Enterprise Advanced Traction and Pricing Uplift

Enterprise Advanced customers now represent 10% of revenue after one year in market. Customers upgrading to Enterprise Advanced have delivered price-per-seat uplifts averaging 30%–40% versus Enterprise Plus (at the high end of prior 20%–40% expectations).

Improved Forward Visibility (RPO) and Bookings Strength

Remaining performance obligations (RPO) ended Q4 at $1.7B, up 17% year-over-year (16% constant currency); short-term RPO grew 12% YoY. Company expects to recognize ~55% of RPO over the next 12 months. Q4 billings were $420M, up 5% YoY (4% constant currency), driven by strong Q4 bookings.

Margin and Profitability Progress

Q4 gross margin 82.3%, up 130 basis points YoY and above guidance. FY26 operating margin ~28.3% (Aaron/Dylan cited ~28%), record Q4 operating income of $94M and Q4 operating margin of 30.6%, both above guidance.

Record Free Cash Flow and Active Capital Return

FY26 free cash flow was a record $313M, up 3% YoY; Q4 free cash flow was $98M. During FY26 the company repurchased ~9.7M shares for ~$293M (~>90% of FY26 FCF) and reduced basic shares outstanding by >3M.

Product and AI Momentum

Multiple product launches and enhancements in FY26: general availability of Box Extract, Box Shield Pro, Box AI Studio integrations with Anthropic (Claude Opus 4.5/4.6), Google Gemini 3.0 Flash, OpenAI GPT-5.2. Roadmap includes Box Automate (H1 launch), next-gen AI agents, expanded Box Platform APIs and continued Box Shield/Governance enhancements.

Healthy Customer & GTM Dynamics

Customers paying at least $100k annually grew 9% YoY. Suites customers now account for 66% of revenue (up from 60% a year ago). Notable partner and customer wins across regulated and enterprise verticals (government regulator case management, global insurance, biotech, robotics), and strengthened SI and cloud marketplace partnerships.

Negative Updates

Moderate Billings Growth and Potential Lead-Indicator Risk

Q4 billings grew 5% YoY (4% constant currency), and management expects FY27 billings growth to be roughly in line with revenue growth (notably only low-single-digit billings growth in Q1). Slower billings growth versus revenue can be an early signal for future cash/booking momentum risk.

Material FX Headwinds in Near Term

Q1 FY27 billings guidance includes a ~530 basis point FX headwind driven largely by USD/JPY movements (historical rate move vs. year-ago Q1). For FY27, FX is expected to be ~100 basis points headwind to billings. About 40% of revenue is international, with ~65% of that in Japan, increasing FX sensitivity.

Margin Expansion Paused in FY27 Due to Strategic Investments

FY27 operating margin is guided to ~28% (28.5% constant currency), roughly flat with FY26, as the company intentionally increases go-to-market and AI investments. That delays near-term margin expansion despite positive long-term targets.

Moderate Net Retention and Seat Model Uncertainties

Net retention rate was 104% (up from 102% YoY) — a modest improvement. Management expects NRR to be ~104% in Q1 and 104%–105% by FY27 end. The company acknowledged theoretical longer-term seat-model risk from AI/agent adoption, although they provided mitigations via platform/API monetization.

Limited Incremental Free Cash Flow Growth and Reduced Buyback Capacity

FY26 free cash flow grew only 3% YoY. Large share repurchases (~$293M) consumed >90% of FY26 FCF, leaving approximately $59M of remaining buyback capacity under the current repurchase plan, which limits near-term repurchase flexibility.

Company Guidance

Box provided Q1 FY‑27 guidance of roughly $304M revenue (≈10% YoY, 9% constant‑currency), low‑single‑digit billings growth with an FX headwind of ~530 basis points, Q1 gross margin ~81.5%, Q1 operating margin ~27.5% (up ~220 bps YoY), Q1 EPS ~$0.36 on ~141M weighted diluted shares; for full‑year FY‑27 they guided to ~$1.275B revenue (≈8% YoY, 9% cc) with billings roughly in line with revenue (≈100 bps FX headwind for the year), FY gross margin ~81.5%, FY operating margin ~28% (28.5% in constant currency), FY EPS ~$1.55 ($1.58 cc) on ~141M shares; they also expect net retention of ~104% in Q1 and 104–105% by year‑end, to recognize ~55% of RPO over the next 12 months, and noted a ~$3M BoxWorks expense shift from Q3 into Q4.

Box Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent operating/free cash flow (FY26 FCF ~$313–350M range cited across materials, near 98–99% of net income) and very high gross margins (~79–82%). Offsetting factors are slowing revenue growth (FY26 ~2% per statements) and profitability volatility (net margin down sharply from ~22% in FY25 to ~9% in FY26), plus a balance sheet history of equity/leverage instability despite improvement in FY26.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, but growth has slowed recently (2026 annual revenue up ~2% versus ~5% in 2025 and mid-teens in 2022–2023). Profitability has improved meaningfully versus earlier loss years, with 2026 showing a solid net profit margin (~9%) and very strong gross margins (~79%). The main weakness is margin volatility: net margin dropped sharply from 2025 (~22%) to 2026 (~9%), and operating profitability metrics appear less consistent year-to-year.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Leverage and equity quality have been a swing factor over time. The balance sheet looks improved in 2026 with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.39) versus very elevated leverage in 2024–2025, and equity was negative in 2022–2023. That said, the historical volatility in equity and leverage suggests the capital structure has been less stable than typical, which raises risk despite the recent improvement.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow have been consistently strong and rising (free cash flow ~$350M in 2026, up modestly year over year). Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (free cash flow is ~98–99% of net income across multiple years), supporting earnings quality. A watch item is that operating cash flow is a moderate share of revenue (coverage ratio in the mid-0.3s to mid-0.4s), but overall cash conversion remains very healthy.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.09B	1.04B	990.87M	874.33M
Gross Profit	932.61M	862.02M	777.13M	738.32M	624.85M
EBITDA	140.67M	113.34M	101.99M	102.83M	53.62M
Net Income	101.31M	244.62M	129.03M	26.78M	-41.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.55B	1.67B	1.24B	1.21B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	478.06M	722.82M	480.69M	461.25M	586.27M
Total Debt	76.97M	721.32M	491.80M	535.10M	621.50M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.47B	1.18B	1.24B	1.79B
Stockholders Equity	197.10M	197.28M	61.03M	-33.86M	-395.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	350.38M	329.68M	316.88M	293.55M	230.12M
Operating Cash Flow	356.45M	332.26M	318.73M	297.98M	234.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.70M	-23.21M	-82.79M	120.60M	-239.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-569.52M	-62.36M	-272.90M	-396.50M	-172.86M

Box Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price26.10

Price Trends

50DMA

26.16

Negative

100DMA

28.76

Negative

200DMA

30.98

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.30

Negative

RSI

60.16

Neutral

STOCH

87.85

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.67, below the 50-day MA of 26.16, and below the 200-day MA of 30.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BOX.

Box Risk Analysis

Box disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Box reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Box Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PATH	69 Neutral	$6.18B	10.75	12.56%	―	10.05%	―
BOX	68 Neutral	$3.74B	35.80	―	―	7.21%	58.61%
WEX	66 Neutral	$5.70B	17.39	22.33%	―	-1.15%	-2.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
DBX	60 Neutral	$6.14B	14.67	―	―	-0.44%	2.47%
S	57 Neutral	$4.75B	-24.63	-25.79%	―	24.09%	-34.25%
VRNS	54 Neutral	$2.80B	-38.13	-24.53%	―	11.37%	-34.44%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BOX

Box

26.10

-6.17

-19.12%

WEX

166.10

7.34

4.62%

VRNS

Varonis Systems

23.83

-16.91

-41.51%

DBX

Dropbox

26.38

-0.04

-0.15%

PATH

UiPath

11.55

-0.76

-6.17%

SentinelOne

13.97

-5.87

-29.59%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 05, 2026