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Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A (BKKT)
NYSE:BKKT
US Market

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A (BKKT) AI Stock Analysis

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BKKT

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A

(NYSE:BKKT)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▼(-3.36% Downside)
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and negative operating cash flow) despite improving gross margin and low leverage. Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings-call outlook (strong adjusted EBITDA, cash position, transformation plan) and a positive strategic acquisition, while technical indicators are only moderately supportive and valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Liquidity & Leverage
A cash position of ~$64M combined with no long-term debt materially reduces refinancing risk and gives management runway to execute the multi-quarter transformation. Low leverage supports strategic investments in custody, markets, and international expansion without immediate debt burdens.
Improving Gross Margin
A materially higher gross margin (42%+) indicates improved cost structure and a more scalable platform economics. Sustained margins make future adjusted EBITDA conversion easier as revenue scales, strengthening long-term profitability potential if volume growth follows.
Strategic Product Integration
Bringing stablecoin settlement in-house via the DTR acquisition reduces third-party dependency and tightens core infrastructure. This structural move supports Bakkt’s programmable payments and neobanking strategy, improving control over margins, compliance, and product roadmaps over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating cash flow shows core operations are not yet self-funding, forcing reliance on financing or equity raises. That constrains long-term flexibility, raises execution risk for international expansion, and can pressure investment pacing if revenues underperform.
GAAP Transition & Residual Business Noise
Ongoing loyalty-related items and broader transition accounting noise through early 2026 obscure underlying operating trends. This reduces visibility into sustainable earnings and complicates performance benchmarking and investor assessment during the multi-quarter transformation period.
Significant Dilution Risk
The all-stock DTR transaction (31.5% pre-close consideration) implies substantial dilution to existing holders. Coupled with equity capital programs in place, this increases per-share dilution risk, which can depress long-term per-share metrics and complicate returns even if enterprise value grows.

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A (BKKT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBakkt Holdings, Inc. operates a digital asset platform. The company's platform enables consumers to buy, sell, convert, and spend digital assets. Its customers include merchants, retailers, and financial institutions. Bakkt Holdings, Inc. has a strategic alliance with the Global Payments to collaborate on use cases starting with enabling cryptocurrency redemption in customer loyalty programs offered by bankcard clients, as well as expanding its banking-as-a-service offerings to include consumer access to cryptocurrency. The company was formerly known as VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings and changed its name to Bakkt Holdings, Inc. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia. Bakkt Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of Intercontinental Exchange Holdings, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyBakkt generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by facilitating transactions on its platform, charging fees for trading and storage services, and offering value-added services to institutional clients. Key revenue sources include transaction fees from buying and selling digital assets, subscription fees for premium features of its trading platform, and partnerships with major financial institutions and payment processors that integrate Bakkt's technology. Additionally, Bakkt may benefit from increased adoption of digital currencies and blockchain technology, enhancing its earnings potential through strategic alliances and expanding its user base.

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive trajectory for Bakkt, with significant progress in restructuring and strengthening the financial foundation. Highlights such as strong adjusted EBITDA growth, balance sheet improvements, and strategic initiatives for international expansion outweigh the lowlights, which include temporary transition impacts and accounting noise from the Loyalty business.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Bakkt reported $29 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, demonstrating scalability and efficiency, compared to a loss of $20.4 million in Q3 2024.
Balance Sheet Improvement
Closed the quarter with $64 million in cash and restricted cash and no long-term debt, reflecting disciplined execution and a strengthened financial foundation.
Simplification of Capital Structure
Eliminated the dual-class share system and completed the collapse of the Up-C structure, aligning shareholders, management, and employees under a single corporate entity.
Strategic International Expansion
Initiated investment in Japan and planning further expansion into Korea and India to extend digital asset infrastructure globally.
Negative Updates
Residual Impact from Loyalty Business
Q3 2025 results still reflect some residual impact from the Loyalty business, which will remain part of the results through year-end 2025.
Continuing Transition Noise
Accounting noise due to discontinued operations and transition activities, impacting GAAP figures until Q1 2026 when the financial reporting will be clean.
Company Guidance
During Bakkt's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's strategic transformation and future outlook. Bakkt reported strong financial performance with an adjusted EBITDA of $29 million and approximately $64 million in cash and no debt, highlighting their scalable and efficient business model. The call emphasized Bakkt's strategic focus on becoming a leading digital asset infrastructure platform, with plans to enhance its Markets, Agent, and Global divisions. The company outlined its investment and expansion strategies, particularly in Japan, Korea, and India, and stressed the importance of stablecoin and tokenization markets to future growth. Bakkt aims to complete its transformation by the end of Q4 2025, with a focus on accelerating platform integration, expanding regulated custody, and advancing strategic partnerships. Looking ahead, Bakkt plans to release 2026 KPIs and host an Investor Day in Q1 2026 to provide further clarity on its growth trajectory.

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: modest TTM revenue growth (1.95%) and a stronger gross margin (42.23%), but profitability remains weak (negative net/EBIT margins) and operating cash flow is still negative despite positive free cash flow growth. Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.11) but ROE is deeply negative (-72.26%).
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Bakkt Holdings has shown some improvement in revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.95%. However, the company continues to struggle with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins (-1.07%) and EBIT margins (-2.10%). The gross profit margin has improved significantly to 42.23%, indicating better cost management, but the overall profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.11, indicating a relatively low level of leverage. However, the return on equity remains negative at -72.26%, reflecting ongoing challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 44.28%, suggesting a moderate level of financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Bakkt Holdings has seen a positive free cash flow growth rate of 30.78%, but the operating cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -2.07, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations to cover its net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.03, showing some ability to manage cash flow despite ongoing losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.85B3.49B780.14M56.22M37.25M28.50M
Gross Profit1.63B87.01M61.63M54.57M37.25M-30.14M
EBITDA-80.24M-83.36M-114.29M-151.97M-134.75M-43.38M
Net Income-41.12M-46.66M-74.85M-578.11M-133.55M-79.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets258.26M269.38M966.87M455.50M2.42B468.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments69.53M39.05M70.28M239.39M407.86M77.18M
Total Debt12.51M23.54M27.16M26.42M28.96M2.30M
Total Liabilities129.70M206.52M831.15M119.43M122.31M80.05M
Stockholders Equity114.39M33.89M48.28M96.26M468.40M388.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-114.84M-24.29M-70.13M-148.14M-149.99M-51.51M
Operating Cash Flow-111.18M-21.20M-60.70M-117.60M-134.30M-30.94M
Investing Cash Flow-9.16M14.13M65.97M-171.96M16.92M-7.93M
Financing Cash Flow81.09M43.82M-2.63M-2.58M256.83M37.49M

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.97
Price Trends
50DMA
14.15
Negative
100DMA
19.74
Negative
200DMA
16.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Positive
RSI
43.66
Neutral
STOCH
6.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKKT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.13, below the 50-day MA of 14.15, and below the 200-day MA of 16.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BKKT.

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$459.75M12.1226.84%-6.57%-29.62%
66
Neutral
$3.83B49.8420.46%18.37%
64
Neutral
$234.48M31.8620.36%32.61%-8.26%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
58
Neutral
$42.08M-93.51-5.30%20.68%84.51%
58
Neutral
$370.98M31.341.63%4.02%34.45%
53
Neutral
$474.21M-2.69-48.63%101.97%58.61%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BKKT
Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A
13.39
-4.17
-23.75%
IMXI
International Money Express
15.46
-3.45
-18.24%
JG
Aurora Mobile
7.27
-0.53
-6.79%
DAVA
Endava
6.32
-26.10
-80.51%
PAYS
PaySign
4.17
1.51
56.77%
CLBT
Cellebrite DI
14.71
-9.33
-38.81%

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Bakkt Establishes $300 Million At-The-Market Stock Program
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

On January 16, 2026, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. entered into a sales agreement with a syndicate of broker-dealers that allows the company to issue and sell, from time to time, up to $300 million of its Class A common stock through at-the-market offerings on the New York Stock Exchange or in other permitted transactions. The shares will be offered under an effective shelf registration statement and related prospectus supplement, with actual sales contingent on factors such as market conditions, the company’s share price and capital needs, and Bakkt retaining full discretion over whether to sell any stock and the right to terminate the arrangement, signaling a flexible mechanism to raise equity capital without committing to a specific issuance schedule.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Bakkt Expands Into India via Transchem Warrants Subscription
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026

On October 1, 2025, Bakkt Opco Holdings, LLC, a subsidiary of Bakkt Holdings, Inc., completed the sale of its loyalty and travel redemption business, including Bridge2 Solutions entities and Aspire Loyalty Travel Solutions, to Project Labrador Holdco, LLC, an affiliate of Roman DBDR Technology Advisors, Inc. Following the sale, Bakkt alleges that the buyer failed to return approximately $5 million in so‑called “Wrong Pockets Cash” that was to cover ordinary course transactions around closing, and also failed to meet certain repayment obligations under unsecured subordinated promissory notes linked to about $5 million of restricted cash; Bakkt has filed a breach-of-contract complaint in Delaware and plans to enforce its rights under the notes to recover unpaid amounts. Separately, Bakkt elected to subscribe to 47,500,000 warrants in Transchem Ltd., an Indian listed company, for roughly $10 million pursuant to approvals obtained in November and December 2025, with the warrants exercisable within 18 months and including an option for additional warrants, positioning Bakkt to participate in Transchem’s planned acquisition of an Indian stockbroking and depository participant firm and signaling a strategic expansion into India’s capital markets ecosystem, with potential implications for its branding, management, and governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Bakkt to Acquire DTR and Rebrand as Bakkt, Inc.
Positive
Jan 12, 2026

On January 11, 2026, Bakkt agreed to acquire Distributed Technologies Research Ltd. (DTR), a global stablecoin payment infrastructure provider, in an all-stock deal that will see DTR shareholders receive Class A shares equal to 31.5% of Bakkt’s fully diluted share count prior to closing, with an estimated 9.1 million shares based on current figures and with final consideration subject to various adjustments. The transaction, negotiated and approved by an independent special committee of Bakkt’s board given that CEO and DTR founder Akshay Naheta is the seller, is designed to internalize and consolidate a critical piece of Bakkt’s stablecoin settlement stack, reduce third-party dependencies, and underpin its planned neobanking and programmable payments strategy, with major shareholder Intercontinental Exchange committing its roughly 31% stake in favor of the deal; Bakkt will also rebrand as “Bakkt, Inc.” on January 22, 2026 and host an Investor Day on March 17, 2026 to outline the combined platform’s growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Bakkt Holdings Adopts X for Regulation FD Disclosures
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. announced its intention to use its official X account, @bakkt, as a platform for disclosing material non-public information and complying with Regulation FD. This move encourages investors and stakeholders to monitor the account alongside traditional channels like press releases and SEC filings, potentially impacting how the company communicates with its audience.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Bakkt Holdings Sells Loyalty Business to Project Labrador
Neutral
Dec 10, 2025

On October 1, 2025, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. completed the sale of its Loyalty Business, which included Bridge2 Solutions and Aspire Loyalty Travel Solutions, to Project Labrador Holdco, LLC. This strategic move led to the reclassification of the Loyalty Business as discontinued operations in Bakkt’s financial statements, impacting the company’s historical financial data and ongoing operations. The sale reflects Bakkt’s commitment to streamline its operations and focus on its core digital asset services, potentially affecting stakeholders by altering the company’s financial landscape and market strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Bakkt Holdings Invests in Transchem with Warrants Deal
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A announced its decision to subscribe to 47,500,000 warrants issued by Transchem Ltd., an Indian company listed on BSE Ltd. The investment, valued at approximately $10 million, allows Bakkt to exercise these warrants for shares in Transchem’s common stock within 18 months, with an option for additional warrants. Transchem has identified a potential acquisition target in India within the stock broking sector, which is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The completion of this investment is contingent upon shareholder and regulatory approvals, and Bakkt anticipates providing further updates on the investment structure, potential rebranding, and management changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Bakkt Holdings Approves Management Stock Option Grant
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. held a special meeting where shareholders approved the grant of options to select management members to purchase up to 2,000,000 shares of Class A Common Stock. This decision, which was detailed in the Proxy Statement and Supplemental Solicitation Materials, reflects a strategic move to incentivize management and potentially align their interests with those of the shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Bakkt Holdings Board Member David Clifton Resigns
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

On October 31, 2025, David Clifton, a founding board member and former interim CEO of Bakkt Holdings, Inc., resigned from the company’s board. His departure marks a strategic transition as Bakkt moves towards an independent board under the leadership of CEO Akshay Naheta. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a major shareholder, continues to support Bakkt, indicating confidence in its future growth and transformation.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKKT) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bakkt Holdings, Inc. Class A stock, see the BKKT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026